Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334975#Comment_122334975

Absolutely!

We are a rich country perhaps on paper but definitely not in real life. Houses are heavily inflated assets. I will like to see how our rich country will look for the average Joe soap when they get older 55+ when aches and pains may hit them and don't have access to average surgery (pop few pills ibuprofen and you will be grand) and they can't pay their rent. See how rich we are.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335176#Comment_122335176

Really it's the decay of the GDP model. This is a dire metric of success for a country as it merely measures the amount of money in the economy and not anything really tangible. The money itself is just FIAT funny-money, ergo after the absolutely insane printing of cash over the last four years, it has risen even though life is objectively worsening.

I don't know where this is going to end up, but we can look to countries like the USA or the UK, where things are seemingly a little further along than here. I'm not at all optimist about the future.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122332253#Comment_122332253

I've no idea why you're complaining about the "highly progressive tax system", I merely quoted how much tax is paid at those incomes to show what the median disposable income figure would translate to in gross income.

And, again, you arguing about a few thousand here or there doesn't change the point I was replying to - which claimed a household income of €100k per year was extremely common and was "nothing" these days.

Even if a household income of €92k was the median (which its not, but we'll go with your figure for the sake of it), that would mean only a minority of households are earning over €100k. Which, again, makes the whole concept of that being a reasonable entry level income requirement for 'affordable housing' in Coolock absolutely bonkers.

"Affordable housing" in working class areas by any reasonable logical definition would need to be affordable to households on substantially less income than the median income - maybe half of it. Working class people are by definition earning less than the median.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122335948#Comment_122335948

not my figure…it’s the cso figures which show the median income for Dublin back in 2022….that should be a reliable source which backs up the claim that 2 people working on the median (not average) would be close to 100k. Which is very different to your original post claiming only top 20% of earners would have this income.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336097#Comment_122336097

The idea that 2x median incomes is a common household income is nonsense. I'm pretty sure this has been debunked several times in this thread in the past.

Last year we had posters claiming 200k household incomes were common in Dublin - because 100k individual incomes are common, sure why not 2 for a couple.

Of course the stats do not lie and proved it was nonsense

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336097#Comment_122336097

A significant percentange of households in Ireland don't have two incomes.

2x individual median incomes != not the median household income.

Your very own CSO figure that you posted gave a median household disposable income of €55k per year after tax. Which, as I posted, would suggest a gross household income of circa €65k. Nowhere close to €100k.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336190#Comment_122336190

They are not my statistics…they come from CSO.

The average weekly gross household earnings is 90k in 2023 as per CSO and not 65k.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336182#Comment_122336182

OP claimed a couple on a combined gross income of 100k in Dublin was the top 20%….a assumption based on a statistic of disposable income after tax prsi pension contributions etc. rather than just say I didn’t realise this they doubled down and said there wasn’t much difference between gross and disposable and it was negligible. The cso stats say otherwise and show an average household income of 90k for Ireland (so will be higher for Dublin no doubt)

Yes this is average and not median and will include people retired, on benefits, working part time and full time employees which does not support that it is only the top 20% and debunks the back of a fag packed calculation that OP doubled down on.

Villa05

A bit of a surprising stat: 30% of first time buyers are single

This may indicate that the highest earners are the beneficiaries of the various government schemes to purchase property. Further digging required but it is a surprising stat

https://shows.acast.com/irishtimesinsidebusiness/episodes/irish-housing-crisis-increased-supply-will-not-help-affordab

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338039#Comment_122338039

would be interested to know what they define as single and if it truly is FTB.

reason being that there will be a lot of people separated/divorced that are paying way more than a mortgage on rent and will have the necessary deposits etc but are locked out of housing market as won’t be able to get a mortgage because the way the banks take into account maintenance payments etc…. When these ‘FTB’ schemes were launched it also addressed this issue and although some of these people previously owned joint properties would be considered FTB in certain circumstances and this may explain it.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338242#Comment_122338242

Some more detail

According to the Central Bank, almost 30 per cent of first-time buyers last year were single buyers – this is down on 2021, however, when 32 per cent of buyers were single

The 30% figure appears to be consistent every year

Despite paying more today, ftb are getting less in terms of house size. Not only have we an inflation issue, we also have shrinkflation

Average deposit is 75k

Self builds look to be a big contributing factor

This may well be one of the ironies of today’s housing market – those who can buy, and avail of help-to-buy, for example, or gifts from family, have more than enough funds

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338242#Comment_122338242

When these ‘FTB’ schemes were launched it also addressed this issue and although some of these people previously owned joint properties would be considered FTB in certain circumstances and this may explain it.

This was a recent change it would not account for the 2021 figure of 32% of ftb being single

Icepick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338039#Comment_122338039

not surprising

HTB requires new builds and 70+% LTV. In Dublin, the cheapest new home you can buy is 400k, generally a 1-bed or a 2-bed if outside of the city, so need a salary of at least 70k.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122336304#Comment_122336304

Average is a very different, much less relevant, figure to median. If you don't understand the difference between the two it explains a lot.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122339345#Comment_122339345

I highlighted that it was average and not median in my post. Is that the best you have got?

Villa05

Increasingly our taxes and state assets are being used to "assist" Middle to upper income range population cope with unsustainable prices and increase the wealth of asset owners

This is not sustainable, another term of FFG will be a disaster for the economy

He points to the new Land Development Agency cost-rental scheme in Citywest. There, tenants are being charged €1,390 for a one-bedroom, €1,580 for a two-bedroom and €1,750 for a three-bedroom

https://dublininquirer.com/2024/07/03/if-an-affordable-home-on-council-land-in-coolock-costs-e500000-how-much-will-rents-be-for-340-cost-rentals/?s=09

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122338039#Comment_122338039

I think it's not that surprising. Many people are not getting married or having children anymore. Given the state of the place, and little hope for improvement, the question of "why bother?" isn't entirely unreasonable.

chalky_ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343752#Comment_122343752

I don't think you've ever had a decent take in this thread.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343752#Comment_122343752

It's a 210 bed "co-living" scheme. In other-words, it's a modern-day tenement, and we know precisely what the state would love to do with that.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122346923#Comment_122346923

What would they love to do with it?

SpoonyMcSpoon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122327374#Comment_122327374

There is a huge fallacy here; Ireland is a country of home ownership. This is the policy of the State enacted by our governments. We do not have a developed rental market for a reason and it is because the policy is for people to buy their own home. As a result, all houses within Dublin city should be affordable for people earning Dublin salaries but unfortunately existing homeowners have hijacked policy and directed resources to inflating their own house prices which makes the home ownership policy a pipe dream in Dublin for people that work there. The same people cheering on “housing for me but not for thee” policies see also blocking rental developments and public transport expansions through their Dublin villages. Now we are effectively seeing gaslighting with these “affordable homes” with posts such as yours. Quite simply, attitudes such as yours do not see a housing crisis - as you do not think house prices are severely overvalued in Ireland because it would probably mean that your own house is overvalued significantly!

chalky_ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122347423#Comment_122347423

This doesn't really make any sense, the house prices in Dublin are a result of rapid development in terms of industry there(tech and pharma mostly), the overall change in nature of Ireland as a country, from a developing nation to an advanced one, and finally the cost of building. These are the main drivers for house prices, you can't just stop these things from happening in isolation to solve the problem. If they built a heap more houses, they would still cost what they cost to build, the developer would still need to make a profit on them, and the average joe still wouldn't be able to buy one on their 50k salary.

Can you name any major cities in the developed world that have solved this issue without just pushing low earners further from the centre? Dublin is no different, only in size, meaning that the centre is basically most of the county.

SpoonyMcSpoon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122348270#Comment_122348270

As I said, Ireland is a country of home ownership and therefore neglects its rental market in terms of renter protection and ensuring an adequate supply of suitable rentals for all types of tenants. This is on purpose and is what is accepted since the primary goal in our housing market is to have people own their own home. The government has literally inflated house prices and decreased supply of homes to buy on purpose in an almost criminal act and in defiance of a stated home ownership policy. There is no other city to compare Dublin with in Europe for its size as renting is more common in cities which are typically brought up so you can’t compare. Seeing houses in Coolock at the top of an affordability ceiling for most potential first time buyers despite being brought to market “below market price” (which we know is artificially inflated by political intervention) is a catastrophic failure of policy and dereliction of duty from FF and FG who have ensured this state of affairs.

“Fine Gael is the party of home ownership” - how is €450k for houses in Coolock supposed to ensure people can access homes to buy?

https://www.finegael.ie/housing/

SpoonyMcSpoon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122343752#Comment_122343752

The irony as well with the local NIMBYs there being traditionally seen as “working class”!

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122347423#Comment_122347423

You should spend a little more time reading posts rather than writing your own ranting ones.

Or are you of the opinion that it is normal and expected that houses in Coolock should be priced beyond the means of 100k+ earners?

SpoonyMcSpoon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122348554#Comment_122348554

I am stating that there should be a minimum level of housing affordability within Dublin where anyone with reasonable income can afford to buy and seeing €450k new builds in Coolock being championed as being affordable is a p1sstake when €100k is needed to afford those houses and these are supposed to be below market! When €100k is seen as the breadline when it comes to buying a house, that is a catastrophic failure in housing policy that supposedly aims to achieve home ownership!

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122349117#Comment_122349117

Go back and read what you are responding to.

I replied to another poster who appeared to have the position that houses in Coolock should be that price due to their "closeness' to the city. In that reply I mentioned that it isn't all that close in reality for the size of Dublin. In addition, if the poster thought that Coolock should be beyond a 100k (unsubsidised) person, then I asked how far out they'd expect a teacher to have to go.

That chain of back and forth started when I said it was ridiculous that people on 100k were considered as needing subsidies to buy a house in Coolock. You then took issue with that and said

Quite simply, attitudes such as yours do not see a housing crisis - as you do not think house prices are severely overvalued in Ireland because it would probably mean that your own house is overvalued significantly!

SpoonyMcSpoon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122349294#Comment_122349294

Sorry, yeah. I meant to reply to Data Dude who was seemingly trying to justify the Coolock houses by comparing Dublin to other European cities.

Dublin cannot be compared to other cities as Ireland has a stated aim for achieving home ownership whereas other European cities are geared more for renting. Our own rental market also reflects that home ownership is the goal with its lack of tenant protections, lack of supply of family apartments and lack of storage within apartments - Irish apartments are only for short term living as people should be buying a home after renting is what the government are stating. Therefore, it is totally irrelevant to compare the Irish housing market with other countries and we can rightly call out BS when it comes to the Coolock houses which take at least €100k in income to afford!

Otherwise, when defending it I think people should be honest and admit they are happy with the current housing situation in Ireland because they are benefitting from it.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122349953#Comment_122349953

Ireland does not have a functioning rental market (agreed). Therefore Ireland should be able to produce abundant affordable housing in its capital city, which no other country in the world has managed to do….if only it were that simple.

It’s a nice idea but it’s just not going to happen. Anyone who tells you it is is selling a pipe dream.

Fixing the rental market is a much more realistic aim.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122350184#Comment_122350184

"It’s a nice idea but it’s just not going to happen. Anyone who tells you it is is selling a pipe dream."

This. I'm really tired of hearing that the problems Ireland faces have easy fixes or that they may be fixed "overnight". They cannot. The pension collectors, wastrels, crooks and lunatics that are running this investment fund with a flag have sailed the ship to the edge of a waterfall, and there's no easy way out. The only genuine solutions are unpalatable to most people, and none of them come without a cost.