Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514340#Comment_122514340

Read the following specifically the reference to the low number of individuals responsible for the majority of the issues.

Deal with those and alot of the issues will improve.

https://villagemagazine.ie/estates-of-fear/

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514409#Comment_122514409

I dont disagree with you that its a tiny minority that cause the majority of the problems.

And I think if people were threatened with being moved from say Dublin to Mayo because they were consitent trouble causers and living in social housing, that threat would be a real deterrent.

But the houses dont exist to move people into; that's the first practical problem with that approach.

Replacing benefits with food/clothes vouchers might be another option. No spending social welfare as you choose, basically, but without taking away the necessities for people to live.

But no govt in ireland is anywhere near that stance. FG is as right wing as we get here and FG would be a centre left party in the UK.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514396#Comment_122514396

Nothing to do with political correctness.

Part of of the difficulties which exist today, ironically, is the proliferation of well paying job, thus higher price housing does not go unsold.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514431#Comment_122514431

The houses could be found. We are supplying modular homes for the refugees are we not?

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514491#Comment_122514491

House costs could reduce if the finish was reduced. My first family home came with no flooring, no central heating, basic kitchen, no tiling etc.

How many new social properties are move in ready with only the need to purchase a bed, table and sofa?

Any sale price of any item includes costs included in the delivery of same.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514508#Comment_122514508

Hpw many modular homes have beem built though? I dont think many.

And even if there are modular homes built, we clearly dont have enough of them, otherwise we wouldnt have asylum seekers living in tents and hotels.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514616#Comment_122514616

Look at the bigger picture on this. How many social houses remain empty for periods of time because people don't want to live there because of its reputation?

You can rapid build modular houses (quicker than concrete houses). We are not talking about thousands (remember these will be used for the minority who cause the majority of anti social issues).

We have to start somewhere and the threat of consequences may change some behaviour. Currently with no consequences there is no incentive to change bad behaviour.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514616#Comment_122514616

That could also mean that too many asylum seekers have been taken in when there are clearly not the resources to accommodate them…

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514665#Comment_122514665

Are you suggesting a modular home camp, that is for people guilty of anti social behaviour?

Nobody else lives in this modular town?

BlueSkyDreams

That is very unlikley to change though in fairness.

So we do need a better response to infrastructure management.

Isnt that the idea behind the 6? asylum accomodation centres that will be brought online?

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122515540#Comment_122515540

Why not try. Think of it this way sometimes the punishment needs to fit the crime. The only way to change people's behaviour is to punishment them in a way that impacts them.

If you fine a millionaire a thousand euro will it affect him? If someone who goes to court gets a record where the record does not impact them will it change their behaviour?

If you give the millionaire community service it will have more of an impact on him. If you evict people for anti social behaviour to another area away from their family and make their life more uncomfortable it will impact them more.

Moving people for anti social behaviour does not have to be permanent. Think of it as for example you are temporarily evicted to this modular home for 6 months. The modular home is a basic home that meets basic needs.

The whole idea is that the "punishment should fit the crime".

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122515540#Comment_122515540

I'd have no problem giving such people a tent and marching them off to the Wicklow hills. Ultimately "AntiSocial? Homeless!" is the only language certain people understand.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122513693#Comment_122513693

Like you say give the police more teeth and body cam to keep them honest (with the way things are this is needed anyway) and instead of building ghettos going forward any developer developing needs to make the 20% social housing modular homes (make this a condition of them getting planning) and they would get a lot more units built as they are smaller and this would cost the tax payer less.. Then go around every area and look for areas where modular homes can be built. This could start up in the presidents place in the phoenix park lots of room out there then the street where every sitting politician should have some put there as I say lead by example and lets see how they like it if they are brave enough to support it then there should be no issues. So if they spread them out over the country it would stop the ghettoization of areas which is what has happened in the past.

hometruths

Developer Greg Kavanagh is warning of an inevitable recession, reported in the Business Post:

“Even if interest rates went back to zero overnight, it would still take a year for that to lag into the system and recession is probably unavoidable at this point. There is no surplus income.”

You'd think the idea of no surplus income would send tremors through house builders, and he'd be tempted to shut up shop now and sit out the downturn.

But no, apparently not:

“It won’t affect my business like the last one as it’s insulated this time. The demand is so great the market for housing won’t fall.”

Ireland really is different. No surplus income and an unavoidable recession and even still house prices won't fall. The Irish market is "insulated" from such economic norms.

Makes you wonder exactly what secret sauce Ireland has that is providing such powerful insulation.

I suspect it is unlimited taxpayers money.

Pretty revealing choice of words from Greg Kavanagh, and a bit of kick in the teeth if you're of the opinion that our government is throwing good money after bad and in doing so making the problem worse.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/greg-kavanagh-warns-dylan-mcgrath-closures-are-signal-of-dublins-economic-woes/

Villa05

According to the other hand podcast, the UK Labour Party are proposing implementing the equivilant of the bacon report, where the capital gain of a planning change is not automatically a gain for the land owner

tigger123

My reading of that would be that, as he said, the demand insulates the market. IE, even in a recession, enough people will keep their jobs and salaries that the demand for housing will still outstrip supply, and house prices will continue to rise, or plateu.

Aguce

But unemployment will increase (it's already growing), banks will have stricter landing rules, consumer sentiment will fall, everyone has last housing crash in memory- buyers will be more fearful. Less buyers in market means prices will have to go down

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519044#Comment_122519044

Unfortunately the underlying issue of supply and demand will see no price drops for at least another decade unless there is a change or changes to the following, our housing build strategy, our emigration policy and how our welfare system prioritizes welfare over workers when it comes to housing. Not to mention currently and as long as we have the huge disparity between supply and demand it is cheaper to get a mortgage than to rent. Most people buying a house will have macro issues pusing them to buy or swaying to hold back. For example if you have a kid you will want somewhere near a school or if your paying twice in rent what a mortgage would cost your more likely to buy or if your job is at risk your most likely to not buy. Also remember not only is our domestic population interested in a house, so are companies on a global spectrum as well as individual speculators looking to earn a profit from our overly generous rent price point and our politicians decision to throw billions at these companies to house the poor and migrants. Ireland's rental rate is highly attractive for anyone looking to make money. I called this about 7/8 years ago on here as to why prices would not be dropping for a decade and if anything the situation has got a whole lot worse

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519044#Comment_122519044

I think we need to throw away any presumptions about what another recession would do to house prices. The demand in 2008 was driven by an abundance of credit, and once that dried up, the market quickly corrected itself. Today, whilst funny-money is certainly a major factor, the demand is driven by an abundance of people and a paucity of homes. Unless a recession provokes swift and enormous emigration, prices will not drop.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122518956#Comment_122518956

Assuming a recession means a contraction in the economy, rising unemployment and lower wages it would be the first recession ever where demand didn't decrease.

Of course if market prices are "insulated" by something to compensate for the fall in demand, then prices won't fall.

That was my point. The insulation is the governments willingness to step in and plug the gap.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122518653#Comment_122518653

No surplus income for whom?

Household financial assets are almost 600 billion. The higgest they have ever been.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519275#Comment_122519275

Market prices will not be insulated. However there is a significant difference between a price correction due to a recession and a significant price crash like what happened in 2008-12.

Generally the correction is in the order of 10-20% However it also will probably leads to a slowdown in construction especially in higher cost urban areas, which in the medium term will cause a more significant upwards correction as the recession passes.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519091#Comment_122519091

What about the foreign workers who came to Ireland to work for the multinationals. If they lose their job, wouldn't they return to their home country. Their work visa is tidied up with the job if I am mistaken.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519352#Comment_122519352

I'd agree with you but Greg kavanagh appears to be saying the housing market won't drop.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519395#Comment_122519395

have you a figure of work visas given out over the last decade? All I know is 4 new people (the majority not kids) for every new build is the current ratio. I really thought the explosion of working form home would see a huge % of people who can do this move to say Spain/Portugal or a country with a better climate but that does not seem to be the case yet

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519488#Comment_122519488

Developer says house prices won’t drop, in other news….

If there is a recession and demand does drop, perhaps at that time we can ask Greg why he isn’t investing in developments which would come to the market at least a year later.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519705#Comment_122519705

Sounds like Greg's not planning on halting any developments, his business is insulated, he'll be making hay while the sun shines in this recession.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519805#Comment_122519805

He is banking on the prices of his houses not dropping, if they do, he will stop developing, despite what he says.

It should not come as any surprise to you that a man selling houses, tells the public houses will not drop in price. Whilst I agree with him, there a few enough houses and probably too many people with the spending power to buy them, even if a recession of sorts does occur, if the prices were to drop 20%, good old Greg will stop building.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122519936#Comment_122519936

I don't think we're really disagreeing about anything.

I think if prices looked dropping 20% good old Greg would simply have to threaten to stop building because he couldn't make any money, and his friends in politics would say don't worry, we'll insulate your business.

So this recession would mean restaurants and other such businesses closing, but everybody could still consider a 3 bed semi in Coolock affordable at the guts of €500k.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122520061#Comment_122520061

How would the Government insulate the house building industry?