Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117802724#Comment_117802724

Labour costs have increased as well as materials. As well labour efficiency had declined on larger sites.

Plumbers and electricians cannot be got for love or money even in rural areas. Other trades are scarce as well.

jill_valentine

So here's a hypothetical situation based on a relative's dilemma (single, single income)

a) Buy a shoebox apartment now in a fairly grim town that they could have paid off in five years, but would more or less guarantee being stuck in a not nice town and their horrible job until then - this is a limited time offer though, because the seller is a friend.

b) Try going through Rebuilding Ireland, which would boost buying power to about 180-190k in Dublin County somewhere, putting other work options on the table - but would be at least next year before the app was processed.

Prices aren't coming down or stock going up in a hurry so I'd be inclined to say a), go with the bird in the hand, and at least build equity. And having tried going through RIHL myself, it's a long and messy process and I wouldn't be at all confident that vendors would be willing to accept it even if it was the best offer. I'm dubious you'll get anything in Dublin for 180k by then at all tbh.

I've toyed with the idea of a) myself here before on and off, but it's different when it's you going to be living it I suppose. And it would mean losing your first time buyer privileges.

Just curious for other thoughts seeing as I haven't been on the board for a while.

MacronvFrugals

FF are getting fairly drastic at this point, they may sense an opportunity with their recent bounce in poll numbers

"Vacant property tax likely under Housing For All proposals"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/vacant-property-tax-likely-under-housing-for-all-proposals-1.4656246

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117802724#Comment_117802724

The most expensive part of house builds is land

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804266#Comment_117804266

Here's another hypothetical, the average Irish town can actually a better quality of life than many suburbs in Dublin. Actually it's not a hypothetical, it's a fact from my own experience.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117802724#Comment_117802724

What is the profit margin? Got any links?

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804874#Comment_117804874

Possibly in Dublin in exceptional cases, but still unlikely.

jill_valentine

That's not a hypothetical, it's an opinion that's not really relevant to the question. Fairly tired of the "Just move out of Dublin!" thing, people have reasons for doing that beyond just forgetting that's an option.

Myself and my family are all from the country or small towns, nobody's labouring under illusions. In this specific case it would very definitely represent a drop in quality of life. The question is whether the trade off is worth it.

_Brian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804874#Comment_117804874

Maybe in major urban areas, but outside that it isnt the case.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117805602#Comment_117805602

I would say in most part of Dublin, residential land would cost more than labor. But it as well depends what we consider Dublin. I would agree that overall country wise, residential land would be lower than labor costs.

drogon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117804827#Comment_117804827

You really have to think what the loop hole will be, perhaps all vacant property, other than ones owned by REIT ? 🤔

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117803728#Comment_117803728

In Iraq, waste water plant has to be 3km from residential houses. Houses do not need to be 3km from each other 🤗

Is there any similar rule in EU, i.e. 300m etc?

Underground

The association of auctioneers / valuers earlier in the week and today the CEO of Glenveagh calling for a loosening of the LTI limit rule. Quelle surprise, turkeys vote unanimously that Christmas should be cancelled.

Why are these self serving c*nts allowed to spew this sh*te unchallenged?

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117809392#Comment_117809392

The countries run by lobbyists is it any surprise, in saying that it would be shocking if Makhlouf went ahead with this knowing it would overheat the market further.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117808801#Comment_117808801

You miss my point. There would be nowhere to put the waste water plant anywhere near where it is needed. We have massively dispersed one-off housing; Iraq has deserts directly outside cities.

There is no equivalent rule here. There is housing maybe 50m from the perimeter of Leixlip WWTP.

Balluba

Justin Trudeau has promised to put a 2 year ban on foreign investors buying property in Canada if he is re-elected in an effort to solve the affordability issue there.

Another Canadian party has promised a 20% tax on foreign investors in property.

I wonder if a similar approach would work here?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117813247#Comment_117813247

I didn't miss your point but rather tried to politely point out the logic deficit.

The answer appears to be zero regulations as you state. Truly appalling given the poor health outcomes experienced by those in close proximity as per the study I previously referenced.

mcsean2163

Property fy sale in Ireland - 12062 Results

Interesting, supply back above 12k and this is the wrong time of year to sell given x4.5 exemptions are likely used up

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816929#Comment_117816929

There is absolutely no logic deficit. To find somewhere with no houses for 3km around it to handle Dublins sewage would basically be impossible

MacronvFrugals

If we're talking optics this looks absolutely shocking!

Investors lease former social housing properties back to state

"Large institutional investors have started to lease former social housing properties, originally built by the state, back to the state for use as social housing under lengthy lease arrangements.

The Business Post has learned that second-hand homes in old council estates are now being rented to South Dublin County Council at an estimated rent of €1,500 a month, with no option for purchase at the end of the 25-year lease."

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/investors-lease-former-social-housing-properties-back-to-state-87f002d5

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117816942#Comment_117816942

That's interesting - I've been periodically checking 'total property for sale' (any type) on Daft since early July and the total has been very static around the 15,450-15,550 level. Are you using Daft, and with what criteria? I'm just literally clicking Buy-->All Property.

enricoh

Is this being replicated throughout the country does anyone know? The fella in the link below purchased 15 houses and apartments in portlaoise last year in anticipation of direct provision centre getting closed and he was to rent them to the state to house the residents.

https://www.leinsterexpress.ie/news/news/659097/fifteen-empty-portlaoise-homes-waiting-a-year-for-direct-provision-families.html

wassie

When I read your comment, I was curious about this 'fella' as it sounded like a stereotypical 'chancer landlord' looking to make a quick buck.

But reading through Dídean's website (the actual owners/developers) it is, or more precisely, they are so much more than that. I was well impressed with what they are actually trying to acheive. Hope they are successful and it is replicated across the country.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117817963#Comment_117817963

If you filter all property type except for sites, it generally takes out around ~3000 listings, arriving at circa 12k dwellings.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117817963#Comment_117817963

I'm scanning myhome using my mobile. I think there may have been a different number on the laptop browser which is bizarre.

Right now it gives:

Property for sale in Ireland - 12060 Results

It had been below 12,000 for a while...

JimmyVik

I think this is apt for this thread.

Quite a good explanation I think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6HEH23W_bM

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820722#Comment_117820722

Myhome is still showing a poor amount of properties for sale remember there is a good % of the properties actively advertised that will be sale agreed, they are very slow at updating and some sellers/EAs will leave the advert up until they are further down the process of selling the house as they may get someone cash on the hip ready to bid more and if they have that ace up their sleeve it means if the current sale breaks down they can play that card. The other point is any new build (which there has been quite a few this year - more than last year or the year before) will be adding to this number (if they have not been swooped up by the vultures) so showing less than 100 more properties than a few months ago is nothing to write home about but hopefully its pointing to where we are going.

MacronvFrugals

Nice discount for anyone looking for an apartment in Mount Merrion

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820597#Comment_117820597

Ah, yep, that was it - I excluded sites and now I get 12,183.

Interestingly, the total (including sites) figure is now the lowest, 15389, since start of July, and yet you say the number excluding sites is going up - which implies the number of sites is dwindling? Whether they're being bought to be built on, or just withdrawn from the market, who knows.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117822374#Comment_117822374

It's still nearly 600k for a 2-bed apartment, which is fairly eye-watering.

There's an apt in Booterstown on Auctioneera, which I've been watching for a few weeks just out of curiosity, which I thought was a bit over-priced - advertised at 475, seems to have stalled at 470, so at least not everything is going crazily over the asking, which is a slim sliver of hope in desperate times.

Pomodoro

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821976#Comment_117821976

I am a long time lurker and I honestly have always enjoyed your posting here. Whatever your politics, please don't allow yourself to be taken in to straw man arguments like in this video.

In this case the straw man is attacking the tax system on the assumption that low income / cash poor people are lazy and feckless, and high income / cash rich people are prudent and hard working. Of course there is a lot more to it than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

As to how this relates to housing, there are many many factors that effect how much income someone earns. A big one is career choice. Arguably a nurse works a lot harder, and provides more societal value than a software engineer or an estate agent, but yet earns 2-3 times less. There needs to be some way for that nurse to be able to live in the same quality of housing + area as the software engineer.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117825667#Comment_117825667

Except that it is true. I just posted that video to demonstrate to those saying that its jealousy that it actually isnt jealousy.

Its a sense of fairness and what you get out of the work you put in.

Basically your taxes are used to bid against you, raising house prices for everyone, including the tax payer.

People wonder why people who pay through the nose in taxes are not happy that someone who never paid any tax gets to live in the same house that cost them a lifetimes savings and then the rest of their life in mortgage to pay for, while their taxes go to providing the other house to the non tax payer.

Its too much.

random_banter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117822496#Comment_117822496

I had been taking note of the numbers for sale in total on MyHome, and then the number of houses for sale in the large area we have been searching in, and while the total numbers for sale has been rising the last few weeks, I can see that the number of houses for sale in my search area (everywhere in Dublin South of The Liffey) is still on the way down since early July - they rose a little after the lockdowns eased but it was just a blip it seems.

Pomodoro

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826300#Comment_117826300

yes that pretty frustrating to have to bid against the government / people who will lease back to the government. seems like a crazy waste of money all round

this isn’t the fault if the tax system though - just bad housing policy.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826300#Comment_117826300

Could not agree with you more on this. Life is all about choice which the video highlights. Yes there are some limitations on income earning potential. Some people make life choices and expect others to fund those choices. While Ireland is held as having a progressive tax system it does not actually reflect reality.

The point that rings true for me is housing. We have people who strive to actually put a roof over their head get a mortgage, pays high income taxes, spends time on long commutes to work, pays for child minding, pays for a whole range of other costs. Up to and even as they are in their old age (fair deal scheme).

We then have those who in a lot of instances choose not to do any of the above but yet have a better quality of life than the above.

Why is it wrong for those who actually try to "stand on their own two feet" have a better standard of living than those who don't

People (especially those in the squeezed middle) are actually getting tired of being the ones who end up paying for the majority of taxes. No doubt as a result of the costs associated with the pandemic taxes will increase, be that income taxes, property taxes and a whole host of other taxes that disproportionately affect the squeezed middle (on the basis of their contribution versus the return on the provision of the service). Some of these taxes (specifically VAT) will not affect those who have chosen to rely on some form of Social welfare payments either as their only source of income or as a supplementary source of income to include the various benefits associated (eg free medical card, fuel allowances etc)

random_banter

Interesting debate on Pat Kenny right now re: raising the central bank lending rules. One side arguing that raising the rules to 4.5x income will help people to purchase and help with supply (?!) and one arguing that they will push up prices.

I'm no economist but I fail to see how it would NOT push up prices, more money to pay for the same poor supply = higher property prices.

This topic obviously came up at government level this week. As a person still searching for a home, it really makes me nervous thinking about how a move like that could affect prices.

awec

The lending rules are the only thing keeping a lid on prices right now IMO. Relaxing to 4.5 will absolutely lead to higher prices.

Marius34

For those who interested in Household deposits, and Loans for house purchase.

In todays updated Central Bank balance sheet, something unexpected happened for the month of July.

https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data/

Household "Loans for house purchase" fell from 73.6B to 68.8B. Whether there was some recalculation, or none-performance loans got sold, or etc. Will be looking forward for news on this. Meanwhile large increase in household deposits from 132.0B to 133.8B.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826955#Comment_117826955

I'm not much a poster here, but I'm stepping out of the shadows for this one, as it's something that needs to be said a lot more.

I currently pay something in the region of 23k a year to the state in income-tax. On top of that, I pay VAT on purchases, tax on my car and various other taxes here and there. I fund my own pension funds through private investments that I have set up and through my employer. I have private health insurance, and I avail of no social welfare whatsoever. The rather salient question that regularly jumps into my thoughts is "what am I getting for my taxes?" I don't have a good answer for that.

At 34, I feel very much that the state is engaged in turning me and the majority of my age-group into wealth generating units to fund god only knows what ends. I neither expect nor want to be given anything in life, but I do expect to be able to enjoy the fruits of my own hard labour and, above all, be able to leave a patrimony for my nieces and nephews so that the next generation will be better off*. I did not work for years simply to take my place as a cog in a machine where those who produce are milked like cattle.

To call the current direction of the state "unsustainable" is not accurate. Indeed, the only adjective that I can apply is "vile".

My two cents...

*Note: this used to be the ambition of every generation.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826995#Comment_117826995

The covid bumps of 6/7% YoY June 2020 to June 2021 will likely be reversed over the coming year or so, solely due to the covid conditions which cause that being relaxed. I wouldn't be surprised to see no increases YoY to June 2022 and then up to 5% falls by December 2023, unless covid restrictions and supports last well into 2022. But it would be such a shame to stop the correction from occurring by increases the mortgage lending restrictions to 4.5 times income or even more than that as that would throw more fuel on the fire and do nothing to help the fundamental issue of affordability.

DataDude

CSO statistics on population growth was published today. Interestingly, given the relentless talk of supply vs demand, the last 12 months has been by a mile the lowest increase in population we've seen in recent times (34k increase vs normal 50k-60k). If we assume 34k population increase equates to roughly 15k additional housing unit requirements - the year gone is the first in a long time where additional housing supply has exceeded additional housing demand!

Of course there is a backlog of demand, but the housing supply vs housing demand situation at a total level should be in better shape than in 2019, when prices were static/falling. Just goes to show there are many other factors at work and people who just scream "supply vs demand" oversimplify the issue!

Main Results - CSO - Central Statistics Office

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826955#Comment_117826955

I am one of the squeezed middle, if you like, although I do not have kids, which makes a big difference.

My brothers and their families are also, the squeezed middle.

I can assure you that me and all of my family have a better standard of living than those that do not work.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827079#Comment_117827079

Just because you haven't needed a social safety net doesn't mean you never will. I've seen enough people who valued themselves by their assets crash and burn during after the bertie years to know that there's no such thing as a society of one.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827314#Comment_117827314

What is interesting in the population stat's is the number of Irish returning along with with economic immigrants with skills as opposed to unskilled immigrants.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827314#Comment_117827314

"If we assume 34k population increase equates to roughly 15k additional housing unit requirements - the year gone is the first in a long time where additional housing supply has exceeded additional housing demand!"

Very wrong assumptions to begin with. If Ireland has population increase of 0, that would mean, that Ireland don't need new supplies?

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827478#Comment_117827478

You and your family made choices that allowed you have a better standard of living. Which goes back to my point of making choices. I am personally aware of people who have a better standard of living than those my post refers to. I can't be the only person who is aware of this and has not noticed it.

A better standard of living goes beyond simply financial matters. It extends to other aspects of life be it commuting long distances to work, or the removal of worries regarding meeting the payment of bills, having time to spend with family rather than having to work to pay bills/mortgages.

The squeezed middle are the easy targets. Look at the income tax take during the pandemic. Income tax revenue did not fall to any significant degree during the pandemic which suggests that this revenue is coming from the middle income earners. I personally believe everybody should pay some income tax once they work irrespective of the amount.

Mr Hindley

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826393#Comment_117826393

Yes, that broadly matches what I'm seeing - also looking in south county Dublin, which I'm constrained to for family reasons. Since I started keeping a count in early July, the number of properties matching my criteria dropped quickly by about 25%, then stabilised. Some very tenuous signs of the number maybe starting to creep again, but nothing concrete yet.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827538#Comment_117827538

A fair point, and you are correct. I wasn't trying to make the case that I'll never need social welfare, therefore I don't want to pay for it. On the contrary, I have no issue with welfare in theory, and I believe that those who find themselves in need of a helping hand through no fault of their own should receive help with dignity and respect.

However, that is not what we have. Rather, we have a system that is growing year by year, costing more and delivering less. I do not see any of this as sustainable, and even if it were to be so, I do not want to leave such a country to the generations on the way up.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827015#Comment_117827015

The results of the CB's public consultation on the rules will be interesting, although Varadkar was being populist wanting them looked at "asap" i think most sane people know this would be crazy letting them even go to 4.5x in a low supply environment

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827603#Comment_117827603

In a broad sense, yes. Assume you're getting at dereliction (number of housing falling out of use versus number of houses coming back to use) and changing household sizes/demographic shifts. Both are fairly slow moving beasts. Population change is by far the biggest driver of additional housing demand.

Any impact of dereliction and household sizes would also have been occurring in 2019 and at a similar magnitude. So whatever way you slice it, in the equation of - the additional number of people in Ireland requiring housing vs the additional number of houses in Ireland, 2020-2021 was the best year in a long long time.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827664#Comment_117827664

The system as is since the bank bailouts is a protected intergenerational transfer of wealth and targeting those marginalised by this iniquity.

Those who don't enjoy the bank of mum and dad to access security of tenure are locked out of assert building. Even when Ireland was a dirt poor country on the north west fringe of industrial Europe as least the state was used to help the poorest build a capital wealth through home ownership.

Many a TD who's a multiple property landlord came from state funded housing and education but the only lesson they valued from Irish history is that it's better to be a landlord than a tenant. The comfortable middle gives tacit approval while property values rise but demographically there's another negative swing on the horizon.