Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Hubertj

I see we’re back to blaming the foreigners again. It’s been a few months since that came up. Stay classy.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848326#Comment_117848326

"the whole housing crisis" is not being blamed on immigration.

I have posted before how there is a strong correlation between the explosion in rents and our net immigration figures, especially since 2015 (mainly because supply is not at 50000+ new homes per year). However, in my view there is a causation factor at play as well due to the lack of supply being built. It is not blaming anyone but part of the multi-factor explanation of how we are in a property bubble once again. These are largely educated people and here to take up work, according to the CSO, so they can of course pay the rents in Ireland, generally speaking (begrudgingly of course). The second point on that is that due to the rental market inflation, it has also pushed a lot of people into the home-buying market for reasons like "it's far cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent" or "there's no stability in the rental market" or else there were and are significant gains to be made by renting a house for an investor. The rental market bubble is so large that it has also assisted in creating the large increase in house prices, again in conjunction with other factors; with the main factor, creating a scary economic and property bubble, dwarfing 08, being low interest rates and QE from central banks.

Summary point; net immigration has been correlated to big increases in rents, due to absence of supply, therefore projected population growth can reasonably be interpreted to assume that it will also correlate to further increases in rents and house prices, unless supply dramatically picks up. But the H4A plan does not dramatically increase supply so it is in my view okay to question the sustainability of our immigration unless we can enhance our resources and infrastructure. Otherwise it's just a race to the bottom and we will see social unrest, populism and God knows what else.

And Hubertj, post reported as that is lazy, baiting and your presence is not missed I have to say these days with those hollow one liners.

Hubertj

Just giving my opinion the same way you give yours except I don’t write an essay to try and make a point.

it’s clear from reading the last page or 2 where things are going. Mad stuff altogether.

have a good Sunday.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848512#Comment_117848512

Being reductive isn't classy either

It's about recognising influential factors in terms of demand , if you have an immigration figure which is completely mismatched with the figure of new housing stock , shortages become a reality.

Making it taboo to identify these realities achieves little unless virtue signalling is the main priority?

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848594#Comment_117848594

No you engage in smug dismissals instead.

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848787#Comment_117848787

It was just a dismissal, not a smug dismissal.

If you look a few posts up you will see that some genius is suggesting that immigration is the sole reason there are shortages of housing. Population increases and new home formation contribute to demand.

and why does it matter if an immigrant is eu or non-eu?

jiminho

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117799015#Comment_117799015

Been a while since I posted but thought I would chime in on this one. Not sure what, if any, the setback requirements are in Ireland/EU but here in Canada it’s 300m. It’s required largely because of the potential for odours. Obviously the closer you are to the source, the higher potential that the odours haven’t diluted in the air to the point you can’t smell them.

Couple of comments:

-Looked up the posting and that house is within 150m of the WWTP which is quite close BUT the WWTP is located to the east so take in to account the prevailing wind from the SW.

-Hard to tell for sure from google maps but looks like they have open air tanks which means higher likelihood of odours to escape.

-Looks like they did an upgrade at the plant which included a new odour control system in 2018.

In summary, the only way to find out for sure if it’s an issue is to visit the house and see if there’s an odour. I would also drive right up to the WWTP to see if there’s much of an odour coming from the plant. One item to note is that odour can fluctuate throughout the year depending on humidity so overall, you’ll have a higher likelihood of getting a bad smell at the house on a day with easterly winds and high humidity. I think humidity in Dublin is typically higher on average during the winter months.

I hope this helps but I would proceed with caution. If I were you, I would knock on some of the neighbour doors to see if there is an issue with odour before committing to a purchase.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848877#Comment_117848877

The conversation is around what is the controllable part of immigration. So EU & UK is uncontrollable. That said, I have no idea why USA, Australia & Canada were separated from rest of the world earlier, is there some policy between those countries and Ireland?

I feel your annoyance fella. Especially on Boards there are a couple of bogeymen presented as the cause of all the ills in Ireland. But Amadan has a point too, which they've made respectfully. I think sometimes if adults are not the ones to have these conversations then the worst type of people take up the mantle of turning them into simplistic talking points.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848877#Comment_117848877

Not playing you're game, be they blonde swedes or Nigerians, increased immigration effects demand

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848512#Comment_117848512

The REITs are mostly foreign.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849098#Comment_117849098

Rightly said.

This is a numbers game, and anyone trying to bring the conversation to an end by pretending it's racism and the sort...seriously, seriously suspect as to their actual motivations.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849098#Comment_117849098

The problem with the housing crisis is that too many think that fixing one it two issues will resolve it.

It is much more complicated. But let's deal with immigration. First off we are in the EU and there is freedom of movement. That leaves the pesky non EU nationals. So who are these. There the Brazilian's working in the meat factories, the Asian and African doctors in our health system, the African and Asian taxi drivers, similar with hotel and security staff in Dublin, along with the nurse from the Philippines that are working in nursing homes and the health services. By all means we can stop them entering the country but the latte you get on the way to work will be impacted by there removal from the system. Finally you have about 40 k non national students at 3'rd level that helps keep this system going.

But immigration is only one if many factors. I made a point.on the M20 thread that it was one of the most critical pieces of infrastructure in the country in that it could provide an economic counter balance to Dublin and redirect employment and investment away fro Dublin. The fast tracking of it would attract commercial development away from Dublin.

Housing regulations are a huge impediment to development in Ireland. While all new houses must be A/B energy rated so must all houses that are redeveloped/ bought back into the housing system. The Ber rating system rates a 2' thick old stone wall house at the same rating as a 60's 4'' block with an uninsulated cavity wall. This is be a huge impediment to redevelopment of older housing stock. Present D rating is more than adequate for this type of stock. Getting accomodation above shops and businesses back into the system will not be possible until these and fire regulations are ammended. Add in the cost of other compliance regulation and housing costs are soaring. A local lad has applied for one off planning at present it will cost 3-5k in professional fees just to get planning sorted. Certification after that cost another 10 k.

Labour is a huge issue. It's seems to be a right of passage for school levers to go to college/ university. We rack and stack them in arts courses. We have a massive fayre in the trades apprenticeship sectors. As well where 5+ years ago an apprenticeship took 4 year's now it is hitting 5 years as the college part is completely overwhelmed at present with the numbers doing them. If we try to up numbers going into them we need to restructure the whole system. As well how do you encourage school leavers from Dublin to do apprenticeships when access to third is easier for people from Dublin than anywhere else.im the country.

And we have not got to land or financing costs even yet

Beigepaint

Ireland is attractive to foreigners as a byproduct of recent successes. This is a good thing for the country and forward thinking working age persons with kids like myself approve of it.

If we want to get rid of the smelly foreigners we could always turn the country back into the economic backwater it was until the 90s.

Blaming foreigners for housing shortages is only two tiers above gutter level talk of n words and t heads.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849358#Comment_117849358

I've an issue with those who rush to use the ism card when the immigration factor is highlighted, I'm not saying immigration is the sole or key factor

For some however, it must never be acknowledged as having any influence

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849358#Comment_117849358

Good points on most accounts. Better infrastructure, decentralisation, although I'm torn on the effects of deregulation/re-regulation as to outcome.

Regarding immigration, it is, in my opinion, the most direct factor in housing, and a change in that area, surely, would have the most immediate effect. And considering it's a housing "crisis", expediency and impact should be priority.

As for eu freedom of movement, the statistics from the CSO for 2020 (which I'm obliged to say run from April 2019 to April 2020) show that more than 79% of immigration was from outside the EU27.

As said before, we don't have a labour crisis nor economic crisis. You mention that "it may effect you getting a latte on your way to work", I can only hope you're being facetious! Pandemic accepted, the youth employment in the country is "eyewatering" according to The national Youth Council back in April, at 64%. Of course that will change, but the point is that there are plenty of people to fill beginner/basic roles.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849375#Comment_117849375

A post as smug as it is reductive

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849375#Comment_117849375

Did it take you long to construct that diversion, or is it innate at this point?

What do you say to 300k promised dwelling units versus 360k immigrants in the same period, as to fixing a housing crisis?

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849450#Comment_117849450

300K dwellings would easily house 360k immigrants. Though 300K dwellings, might still be not enough to solve current housing issues.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849505#Comment_117849505

Are you being facetious too?

The implication is exactly what you state. Yes, it will surely be enough to house those immigrants, and absolutely yes, it won't solve the housing crisis. Because of itself.

What must be borne in mind is that this is the projected outcome for nigh on the next decade. If one were to simply "sit tight", the next possible chance for some improvement won't arrive until 2030. "Possible" chance.

And that is delirious to accept.

Beigepaint

Saying if we get rid of the n words we will have plenty houses is reductive nonsense.

We could easily have a surplus of 100,000 homes in Dublin City Centre except successive Irish governments are ideologically opposed to not milking their tenants.

Rent generating policy is king and immigrants are irrelevant.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849593#Comment_117849593

There's only one person here trying to poison conversation. What do you think you're doing, bringing the likes of "N-word" into it?

Are you that dirtily minded?

As for this magic "100,000" due to "government ideology"...that's just more airy-fairy nothingness. Vapid platitudes and condemnations with, I strongly suspect, more than a hint of agenda beneath.

So I'll ask the question, again, that's founded on statistics and reality, how do you square 300k versus 360k in fixing a housing crisis? Make sense of that for all to see, and leave your filthy language out of it.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849593#Comment_117849593

Hugely informative.

So if 100,000 net immigrants arrive here in the next 3 years that'd be irrelevant to the property market?

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849704#Comment_117849704

I think it's all relevant. But not sure what's the complain about it?

Hubertj

Maybe we should stop country folk migrating to the cities. That would have an immediate impact.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849770#Comment_117849770

If 100000 net people left Ireland in the next 3 years any sane person would say it'd reduce demand, however if extra people arrive here it doesn't increase demand according to some people!

Even better than that, some clowns think it's racist to say extra people= extra demand!

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849445#Comment_117849445

No I was not being facetious. A lot of lowpaying/ minimum wage work( sub15/ hour in Dublin) is filled by migrant labour from non nationals. Take these out of the system and the country grinds to a halt, They drive the buses, run the taxi's, work back of house in the hotel, food and beverage sector. A large section of our building labour is non national now. Truck drivers are another area where there is a large non national cohort. The food production sector is heavily dependent on it

So the latte was just making the point how dependent we are for foreign labour. The young unemployed from Dublin will not pick your spuds and veg, drive you taxi, bone out your beef and lamb carcasses, fillet you chickens or fish. Neither will they work on the trawler going to sea on a Friday night.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849867#Comment_117849867

ok, agree with that. All estimates on housing needs are based on population growth. Even Central bank estimates of 34k New Homes, it is based on assumption of 30K Net Immigration. With 10K Net Immigration, annual needs fall to 26.5K.

Obviously if more people come to live in the country then leave, then we need more accommodation.

Of course, there is plenty of accommodation in the country. It may not be in the middle of the city but there is plenty. Perhaps people need to be encouraged to live outside of city centres? Particularly the ones who live in social housing, no need for social housing in the centre of cities.

If it's a numbers game, it makes no difference whether immigrants come from EU, non EU, UK or wherever. I'm not sure why some posters are singling non EU migrants out.

Timing belt

It will be interesting to see what the ESRI report will say when it is released on the 14th

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849985#Comment_117849985

Oh it's that obvious is it?

And why are people "singling out" noneu27 immigrants? Simple, because it pertains to the EU freedom of movement and was directly asked.

Instead of the nebulous "encourage people to not live in parts of the country" how about the far more straightforward "how about not accommodating extraneous people from outside the country during a housing crisis that already don't live here yet?"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850007#Comment_117850007

How about housing people who can't house themselves away from centres of employment and instead allowing the people who want to live close to work, live there. Regardless of ethnicity.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850019#Comment_117850019

Because one thing is far easier than the other, not to mention the sheer numerical difference.

And where is ethnicity coming into it? Do you think kiwi's are the same as Argentinian are the same as Japanese are the same as Norwegians?

Or are you just tripping over your fervour in a rush to twist the conversation?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850033#Comment_117850033

You are the one that brought immigrants and in particular, non EU migrants into this conversation and made our 'housing crisis ' about them.

Why would I possibly think kiwis are the same as argentinians?

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850088#Comment_117850088

So? I already answered that. The eu27 numbers were brought into it because the question on EU free movement was asked. That's twice I've answered your question. Are you going to ignore it again?

Why did you specifically mention ethnicity? Nobody else did.

I'll tell you why did it. You did it for the same reason that the other person brought the word "N----r" into it, the same reason another brought "racist" into it. You and your type are attempting to flavour conversation so that it is distasteful and therefore end the conversation. Dreadful behaviour.

You have no more interest in the problems of this housing crisis than I do in becoming a pineapple. You're here for one thing, and one thing alone; to stop people talking.

Or, as an offer of sincerity, you could answer the question that you point blank refused to answer earlier. How do you square the circle of 300k versus 360k in a housing crisis?

The biggest problem I see in the housing market is government supplying social housing and HAP to people who cannot work, in the centres of employment.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850007#Comment_117850007

There is a need for immigration to fill gaps in the labour force and these people have a right to live somewhere just the same as a Irish or EU Citizen as they will be contributing to the economy and tax take.... Also they have a visa for a set period of time so are unlikely to be buying properties and more likely to be renting. If your argument is purely about numbers and not just a xenophobia post then you also be encouraging people not to have kids as this, or to prevent Irish immigrants from returning home as this also leads to an increase in demand.

Granted if companies are hiring non-EU citizens for positions that can be filled by EU Citizens who want these jobs then that is another story and I am sure that it happens by tailoring the job advert accordingly. But the majority of immigrants are filling roles where there is a shortage.

The housing crisis is caused by many factors but the main one being for 10+ years very little building has been undertaken. Since 2011 the population has grown by circa 400k (of which the non EU population has only gown by 1.7k*) and we have only built circa 130k of housing during that period.

*Source: https://data.cso.ie/

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850171#Comment_117850171

Do you have any numbers to back up your claims?

Can you provide the evidence that there is an essential skill shortage that requires 360k extra people? Have you looked at current unemployment numbers in different age groups, pandemic withstanding?

They'll contribute to the economy? Great, but we don't have a labour crisis, we have a housing crisis.

Oh so these people will mostly rent, and that won't effect the housing market?

So you think it's sensible and fair to tell people living here not to have children while hundreds of thousands of others can swan in? They already aren't having children because of the housing crisis. Returning Irish migrants are miniscule in number.

You say that both migrants are filling essential skill shortages, and that it can be manipulated. What are these skills, exactly, that cannot be filled by the entirety of the European Union? At over 79% of migrants (2020 CSO) being non eu, it must be some truly amazing blind spot.

And then the doozy about they only need to "build more". Yeah that's been working really swell. Any century now. Instead, I'll posit the same thing ad nauseum, 300k units versus 360k migrants MIGHT be a more efficacious area to examine in a housing crisis. You know, for the sake of novelty, if nothing else.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850252#Comment_117850252

yes I have a back up the population increased by 436.6k during the 10 year period (2011-2021) of which 387.2k related to a natural increase in population (Births less deaths) the remaining 69.4k was due to net immigration. To put that in context immigration on average over the 10 years equates to 3.5k of housing a year (Assuming 2 people pet property). Yes it has an impact on housing demand but not on the scale you are claiming.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849667#Comment_117849667

You may not be a racist (I believe you, I promise!) but the people who formed your opinions certainly were. You might have been taken in by the dog whistle talk and thought that people meant the nonsense that they were saying.

Here is an illustration for you: if I was to start talking about the number of disabled people in the country and counting the number of accommodation units being wasted on people who don’t contribute to the economy then alarm bells would rightly start ding ding dinging in your head. It would be reasonable for a suspicious person to wonder if I had some kind of “bold” and “clever” “solution” in mind.

Yes we have lots of foreigners, yes they need housing. So what? I believe pogroms are illegal.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850366#Comment_117850366

I appreciate the effort. However, I was far more interested in these essential skill gaps that will require 360k extra people, ~80% of which according to CSO 2020, will come from outside the EU. I'm sure there are plenty of claims, but there would no doubt be a few bones to pick through there. Taken straight from the CIA database perhaps :)

As for your comparison over 10 years, it is rendered meaningless by the recession. Do you remember the woes of the housing crisis back then? No, neither do I.

Further, tracking migration from a far more meaningful time period, 2014/2015 and up, alongside house prices and construction, is far more informative and I'll say predictable.

Regardless, the future is of the only concern, and the trends and statistics highlight one glaring glob that can't be ignored.

I'm not one bit happy with this 2030 "plan" and neither should anyone else be for the logical reasons. Emphasis on "logical".

Fresh thinking. Isn't that what they call necessary when an inttactable problem persists ad infinitum? Or there's that insanity definition instead. It's people's choice.

300k versus 360k. Utter madness to accept.

If you were told to work 5 days a week and receive 1 or 2 days pay, would a person be likely to accept that?

If you bought a 6 pack of beer and received 1 or 2 cans, would a person accept that?

Well it's just the same here with housing. The government are promising 300k units, but, unspoken, a gigantic chunk of them are already spoken for. Nonsense.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850436#Comment_117850436

Ah here now.

The differences between invalides living in the country and people who literally don't live here are insanely incomparable.

As for me being "influenced" by others subconsciously, there's more chance of me headbutting a meteorite back into the cosmos. I'm no bloody acolyte of fools.

As for the pogrom comment, once again, how does one expel someone who doesn't yet exist? Give it a go, try to crash your make-believe ferrari tonight, see how appalled and shocked you are with the damage. It's complete fantasy.

And that fantasy inspired line of "reasoning" is a large culprit for why we are where we are.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850515#Comment_117850515

Grand so, don’t engage.

What will we do about the foreigners? Immigration ban?

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850440#Comment_117850440

If government blocks non-EU immigration, it could send bad signals to international companies, and even Universities. Unemployment may even increase, rather than decrease. And you may end up not only with housing crisis, but push whole economy into the crisis.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850552#Comment_117850552

Engage with what, your imagined pogroms against literally non-existent people?

If so, you are correct.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850558#Comment_117850558

We have a housing crisis.

If we avoid tackling an existing crisis for fear of imagined, non-existent crises, well, get comfortable with the housing crisis forever.

Then again, there are some who would be VERY comfortable to see things stay just as they are. Ka-ching.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850584#Comment_117850584

You are the one counting the bad people.

To move the conversation forward, I would suggest building more homes is a better solution than reducing the population. I’d also like to stay in the EU so a foreigner ban wouldn’t work for me.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850605#Comment_117850605

It's curious to me. Are you completely oblivious to the kind of thoughts that obviously flow through your mind?

You are the one mentioning "bad" people, you are the one who brought the lovely "N-word" into it earlier, you are the one mentioning "pogroms", you are the one mentioning "foreigners, and if I recall correctly, "dirty foreigners" as well.

Are you aware of the term "Freudian slip"? Are you sure that those thoughts aren't really YOUR feelings?

Oh your going to "move the conversation forward" by suggesting building more homes. Well isn't that quaint. Antiquated, even.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850596#Comment_117850596

I'm not advising to avoid tackling housing crisis. But your solution to ban non-EU immigration, could lead to bigger problems, rather than solve housing crisis.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850628#Comment_117850628

No my friend, I am calling you out on the dog whistle talk you are putting out. You are fooling nobody when you put out that 360 - 300 nonsense.

Irish people are massively in favour of the EU so we won’t be leaving the EU, we won’t be kicking out the foreigners and we won’t be banning their entry.

Talk of non nationals is irrelevant.

L1011

Everyone drop the (circular, pointless) immigration stuff