Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850700#Comment_117850700

To be perfectly clear, not once have I suggested that noneu migration be stopped.

I am merely identifying, what in my opinion and the statistics scream aloud, that migration is key to solving the housing crisis. Migration in general, not specific migration.

When a housing plan that promises 300k units meets a migration plan that promises 360k, that is the area to be scrutinised until the cows come home.

I'd be more than happy to construct a way out of this situation, provide detailed truthful analysis as to not only the housing/migration issue but also all unintended consequences. The thing is, I'm going to want a lot of money for it.

So in the meantime I'll point in the right direction for others who are supposed to be doing their job and failing. And there's no such thing as too much genuine information, so the more people know in general, the better.

300k v 360k ain't no housing plan.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850711#Comment_117850711

I'm no friend of yours, firstly.

Your accusations are fruitless. Trust me.

I'm aware of this phrase "dog whistle", as in a sound (or message) that is ultrasonic (or subconscious).

Horseshyte.

On the contrary, my guy, I propose that you are merely sensitised to such an extent by hapless imbeciles, you are, quite literally, hearing and seeing imaginary things.

As for your interpretation of what Irish people want (leaving the EU??? Huh?), being the great belwether of reality that you are, I'm sorry but I'd sooner believe the economic theories of a dead crab.

Good luck with "pogroms" and whistles and all that.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850436#Comment_117850436

so we've reached the stage of " The final solution " card being played ?

FFS

mcsean2163

This is the housing thread not the immigration thread. It seems that the moderators are gone AWOL...

Please come back propqueries.

Ireland has become an exciting melting pot of cultures. That benefits some and may disadvantage others. Immigrants just like the millions of Irish emigrants before them require housing. Can we move on.

More supply on myhome. Government signalling vacant property tax in the pipeline. Loads of empty apartments around Dublin. Another year with reduced travel. A commitment to reduce long term leasing for social housing.

Are we at propqueries tipping point already?

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851074#Comment_117851074

According to propqueries, house prices would have dropped 50% by now, so probably not.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851074#Comment_117851074

I thought Props predication was a housing crash in August and we are now in Sept...

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851200#Comment_117851200

You are slightly right but not totally correct Props prediction's were

Nov '20

Feb '21

April '21

June' 21

Sept '21

If he was still here in early July he have been predicting a collapse in October, at this stage of the year he be predicting a collapse in December just in time for Christmas.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851195#Comment_117851195

I thought he/she'd revised it to flood of property hitting the market due to probate sales and the crash starting in September....

A bit depressing tbh, we're still looking and the prices seem to be rising...

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842943#Comment_117842943

You made the ridiculous assertion in the first place, that building more houses makes things worse due to the influx of house builders - the burden of proof is firmly on yourself.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849824#Comment_117849824

Actually, this is a policy in motion already. They call it "flexible working" and it is a key component of the government's multi-faceted efforts to alleviate pressure on Dublin and revitalise rural Ireland. For example, the new law on requesting remote work looks like it makes it essentially impossible for an employer to force anyone who can WFH to go into the office, as the employer needs strong reasons including measurable performance / business ones to actually reject a request to wfh.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850558#Comment_117850558

Even with full employment in this country, should foreign companies stall growth plans or even reduce head count, it should not pose such a risk to the wider economy and the property market. However, accepting that the current prices and rents depend on future population growth, which you are effectively doing, is an admission that the current situation of high prices and rents is not sustainable.

The economy should not be so dependent on foreign, multi-nationals and the property market should also not be at risk of a crash due to the MNCs. It again speaks to me of the bubble in the economy and the property market.

I am genuinely shocked that some people would be totally clueless to believe the property market would crash if the economy faltered. That is, quite simply, a sh1tshow of a property market if that is the case.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850821#Comment_117850821

You do realise that the most likely party in government in 4 years was up until recently anti-EU? Further, the prospect of a united Ireland referendum in the next decade means our EU membership could be questioned in the discussion (as the North is not in the UK, neither is of course our closest ally in the UK as a whole). As such, I would be careful to jump on the "EU is necessarily good" Boomer bandwagon as the social unrest, populism and whatever else follows from high rents and house prices could result in our EU membership being opened for discussion. Think of the UK and the US and what they mean to our economy; both would happily support us outside of the EU.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852784#Comment_117852784

Ireland has a high public debt. Irish Government revenue, highly depends on Multinationals, and on people with high income, to service debt.

"However, accepting that the current prices and rents depend on future population growth, which you are effectively doing, is an admission that the current situation of high prices and rents is not sustainable."

I'm not sure what you want to say here. I'm not admitting that prices can't go up, it can go both ways.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852252#Comment_117852252

Ronan Lyons wrote in the Currency last week to set out his interpretation of the data showing that increased supply actually reduced housing costs between 1995 and 2007. But that it was other factors, namely credit, which increased them. The net point that supply results in lower housing costs. That's all it is. All discussion on the problem can be summed up with one solution; supply versus demand.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852844#Comment_117852844

My point is that it is shocking to me that our economy and property market would be so interlinked that a faltering in MNC activity would have a material impact in property prices and rents. The property market should be siphoned off from the economy if we want to focus on sustainability in the property market with an equilibrium in costs YoY.

Saying Irish government has high debt is totally meaningless as the metrics used to measure it are totally ill equipped to address the 21st economy. CPI and GDP being the biggest culprits and the central bankers are unable or unwilling to shift their own thinking which has lead to them looking like spare pr1cks at an orgy trying to manage their mandate of ensuring financial stability and consumer protection. I read last week that the governor of the Irish Central Bank said we should use our "surprising" corporate tax windfall to pay down debt - he is an ignoramus. As the ESRI constantly says, we should not be so dependent on MNCs to the point where there is a systemic risk posed to our economy should they stall their growth or pull out of the country, this isn't news but there are people so blinded by the MNC light that they cannot see any other economy which doesn't depend on MNCs.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852881#Comment_117852881

Right, it would be great and more stable, if country would not depend that much on foreign MNC. But it does.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852734#Comment_117852734

It was policy long before wfh/flexible working. Workers have been fleeing Dublin since the late 90's to the point that there are more Dublin workers living outside Dublin than within, purely as a result of affordability and poor planning

The HforA plan will further accelerate this trend

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851200#Comment_117851200

I heard he applied for a job in Delphi, but his track record wasn't up to snuff.

Villa05

https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/on-the-record-with-gavan-reilly/defects-living-with-the-legacy-of-the-celtic-tiger-with-eoin-o-broin

Interview exploring the background to the situation where there is little recourse on defective buildings.

Also deals with the situation where affordable purchase homes can be sold back into the private market

Good points raised and none addressed by housing for all plan. Not much point building affordable homes if they can be easily unaffordable 3 years later

Villa05

https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/on-the-record-with-gavan-reilly/its-really-critical-if-youre-going-to-tame-the-market-that-you-get-ahead-of-the-problem

John Moran formerly of the Land Development Agency raises concerns that the Housing for all plan may be inadequate

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117853736#Comment_117853736

pretty sure the seller has to pay back the difference between market price and affordable price so they didn’t get an affordable house when all said and done….. dictating who you can and can’t sell to and for how much means you don’t really own the house…. Which is part of the Sinn Fein boll*x ideology.

it’s not ideal scenario regarding affordable houses but you don’t know the sellers circumstances. They might need to trade up due to family size, relocate, emigrate etc.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843920#Comment_117843920

Even if you win the "bidding" the pain does not end there. I got fed up of having to pull out of Sale Agreeds because of stuff my solicitor unearthed as part of due-diligence. I finally emigrated last month and have not looked back at Dublin since.

mcsean2163

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/cluain-mhuire-coolagad-delgany-co-wicklow-a63-k662/4527399

A bungalow with a granny flat on 2.2 acres in delgany. A steal for €1.6 million.🤯😭😭

We must be hitting some sort of peak?

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855028#Comment_117855028

I've seen a lot worse value than that if I'm honest.

cruizer101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117854782#Comment_117854782

They only have to pay back part of the difference. In this case the seller came out 100k the better, far more than had the house been normally purchased and sold in the same time period.

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855061#Comment_117855061

That’s not good. I would have thought the clawback should have been the savings they made on affordable vs market price. That’s the only issue I see here.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117854782#Comment_117854782

Sellers circumstance is irrelevant, they get a subsidised house are spared from the carnage of the rental market and get the money back they invested in the home plus cpi inflation under SF proposals

To be making off with a profit of 100k as reported in the Ballymun apartment sale recently is obscene

What are the chances that apartment gets leased by the state at market rates. This madness needs to stop if the issue is ever to be fixed

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855490#Comment_117855490

So it’s not really their property under the Sinn Fein plan. The only thing I see wrong here is that the full amount wasn’t clawed back. To suggest the sellers circumstances are irrelevant is wrong in my opinion.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855631#Comment_117855631

The land stays in state ownership and is effectively the subsidy on the property under SF plan. The householder benefits from the subsidy but rightly is not the owner of that subsidy.

In the Ballymun case the claw back was fixed at 30k ie the valuation of the site

Hubertj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855884#Comment_117855884

So like I said it’s not really your house. If you think that’s a good idea we’ll agree to disagree.

jill_valentine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855930#Comment_117855930

I don't see an inherent problem with that so long as it's a possibility, but not the *only* possibility in the market, and I think the latter is unlikely. The big challenge people in the rent trap have is trying to build equity, this cuts that out of the equation. If these are people unlikely to get on the property ladder otherwise, what's the dealbreaker?

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855048#Comment_117855048

For an extra 395k

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/enniskerry-lodge-church-hill-enniskerry-wicklow/4392606

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855995#Comment_117855995

It's all relative. The lodge has a BER if F. With a house that size the running costs would be horrific. It sits on an acre

Cluin Mhuire sits on two acres with stables. It could well be attractive younger family couple. As well it may allow a parent to contribute by selling a family home and moving into the two bed granny flat. Not the prettiest bungalow. It has a D2 BER which suggest for a house build 30 years ago it was build to a good spec. Running costs would be modest.

One is a house you and you children will be going around in body warmers from October to May. The other is where your kids learn to ride a pony with there grandparents watching

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855995#Comment_117855995

I love that place to be fair but 400k is 400k if you don't have it then it's a moot point. You'll always get better for a 'bit' more.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855930#Comment_117855930

The beneficiaries get a home for a fraction of the market rate. What's not to like? If you want full ownership your free to enter the private market and pay double/triple

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855028#Comment_117855028

It's Delgany. Everything is expensive in Delgany.

2 acres is a large site too.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117856208#Comment_117856208

Really the BER is such a con, the way its implemented in Ireland.

People put far too much emphasis on the BER.

I'll get that BER to a C1 for you for €10k or less :)

Did it many times.

Then you can take off your coats.

silver2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117853736#Comment_117853736

One point many people are missing is that money is recycled in this plan.

EG - the LDA put €50m into building 200 affordable houses and sell them at €250,000 each, that €250,000 goes back into the fund to be used for the next project. Effectively the entire €50m returns to the fund once all the houses are sold.

On the "discount" off market. I would guess that it would reduce over the years, but if someone bought at €250k and sold at €300k in 5 years about €30,000 - €35,000 would be returned into the refund and used for further building.

You do have to be very careful about wild headlines such as those in the Irish Times recently (surprised the IT went the daily mail route). Original price was an €80,000 reduction on market. €57,000 was returned as part of the agreement. So net excess was €23,000. Add in what the owners did in terms of decoration and legal feesand you are close to €10,000.

The rest was the market that moved and assuming that they are purchasing somewhere else, that property has also gone up, so there's little real gain for them and I would assume that they no longer can participate in an affordable housing scheme.

But you'd swear by the hysterics of the irish times that it was armageddon

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858218#Comment_117858218

The money may well be recycled on affordable purchase, but we eventually run out of state owned land and end up worse off.

We really need to be doing better than guessing when discussing how our taxes are spent. As well as the site costs, levies and charges are foregone that help fund the infrastructure required so that those houses exist.

In no way are all these recouped when the home is sold to the private market.

If we are in a position where new homes are only affordable to the top 25%of income earners, there needs to be a transitionary market of housing that is immune from the speculative private market.

People should move between these markets not the houses. A receiptient of one of these affordable homes is effectively getting a 50% cut in their housing costs over the private rental market. If they want to get a full ownership, Save the difference and move on to the private market and pass the house onto the next person

Selling these houses to the private market is insanity and a very expensive vote harvesting policy

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117857414#Comment_117857414

That house is 4400 sq feet. ,10 k seems small money to get it to C2 and get it to a place where you could heat it easy. As well you are looking at 10-12' ceilings as opposed to 8-9'. The other factor is to upgrade the BER without changing the period look of the house.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858677#Comment_117858677

€10k. And it will be a C1.

A B would be pushing it without more investment. Really not worth the expense.

But €10k max will get it to a C1.

Ive lost count of how many times we have done this since BERs came in.

The issue in Ireland is people do not understand how BERs work.

They see a low BER and think the place is a wind tunnel.

For example, solar water and LEDs are going to do nothing for the cold, but will bring up the BER.

A bit of insulation for a couple of hundred will also bring it up.

Put it all together with maybe a reconditioned boiler from the last few years and you are nearly there.

After that its a little more expensive. Pumped insulation, or even 50mm insulation backed plasterboard will get you up some more.

And of course, a new insulated water tank.

All of that can be done quite cheaply. Then you can pick off the next things on your list to improve it.

Anyway, regardless, if you can afford to buy that house you wont be moving into it with a BER of F.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117857328#Comment_117857328

Delgany is a poor man's Glenageary.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117861318#Comment_117861318

Are you mixing Delgany up with somewhere else?

mariaalice

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855028#Comment_117855028

It's at the very edge of what has a higher zoning density, needs Irish water and few other utilities to upgrade first there are a few small developers and builders mooching around that property.

silver2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858513#Comment_117858513

Margins on new houses in commuter suburbs are running at 14-18% based on the financial reports of the publicly quoted cairn homes and glenveagh. This include very generous pay and pensions for the top management.

So a 3 bed home in Naas that was selling at about 320k (including site costs, design, connections to services, vat etc) was finished for about 260k.

Take the excessive pay packages for the top execs and you are under €250k

Remember "affordable" does not mean selling at a loss and the LDA remit also allows them purchase land, but in reality there is more than enough state land in primae areas around the country to build 200,000+ homes.

People need to stop believing the PR guff from the various interest partied in the construction industry that are saying it cost €xxx to build a house - its BULLSH1T

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117866532#Comment_117866532

Your post shows how easy it can be to resolve the housing issue.

With regard to state owned land, much of it is held by semi state bodies and is booked as an asset on their accounts. This is not free land it has to be purchased. Source the late debate rte radio 1 10/06/2021

I maintain that state subsidised affordable housing should remain affordable and not be sold into the private market, that way the one home can act as a bridge for multiple persons/families from private rental to private home ownership.

It must not be used as a windfall lotto win for 1 person/family.

I remember as a child how many families needed improved housing and it appeared to be only families that were involved in canvassing for a certain political party received it.

mcsean2163

All Ireland housing supply still increasing:

Mobile searches

10-Sept-2021

All - 12509

Wicklow - 475

Kildare - 450

Dun laoghaire - 28

Glenageary - 25

13-Sept-2021

All - 12583

Wicklow - 468

Kildare - 462

Dun laoghaire - 28

Glenageary - 26

Villa05

David McWilliams bottle half full views on the new housing plan. The usual points being made. Alot of low hanging fruit left unpicked

https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/168-thoughtsonthenewirishhousingplan

Pussyhands

Be difficult to see prices coming down if current conditions stay as they are and numbers build go to 35k a year. Developers aren't going to drop prices. The minute they see a slow down they'll be throttling back supply.

I hope interest rates are increased.

Pussyhands

Yer man from Crazy House Prices was on Claire Byrne last night.

He bought a house. Seemingly house prices aren't so crazy for him considering he had the luxury of deciding where he wanted to live and went around putting letters in peoples letterboxes.

I have severe doubts whether someone would be willing to not go to market to sell their house.

They have essentially left probably 30-50k on the table by not going to market. If someone was not knowledgeable on the market and maybe a bit older and they thought they'd save money on fees as the letter in the door said that, that's a bit dodgy.

It doesn't really save the seller time either. They still have to show the house. The buyer had no idea on the condition of the house so it's not like they could have offered them 350k with the first letter either.