GW38 - transfers.

CSF

sheroman01 wrote: »

My team on the left, his on the right:

Martinez vs Mendy
TAA vs Phillips
Rudiger vs Digne
Lowton vs Coady
Dawson vs Holding
DCL vs Ihenacho

I'd be 99% sure he'll captain Salah too. I'm leaning towards Mane, or Raphina. Maybe even Dallas or TAA!

I'm thinking Son > Mane, and then maybe -4 for DCL > Bamford.

I would say Raphinha has the most differential upside. How he hasn’t exploded already I do not know.

sheroman01

CSF wrote: »

I would say Raphinha has the most differential upside. How he hasn’t exploded already I do not know.

Himself and Mane are the best, maybe safest "punt" picks I think. How lively was Raphina midweek, do you know?

CSF

sheroman01 wrote: »

Himself and Mane are the best, maybe safest "punt" picks I think. How lively was Raphina midweek, do you know?

I didn’t watch the game but he really should have scored right at the end. I saw that one.

He only had an xG of 0.18 (which I’m surprised at because I thought that chance alone was worth more than that) and an xA of 0.10 so maybe you wouldn’t be basing the shout off that game alone.

In his defence xG stats probably haven’t covered how dangerous he generally looked all season, as he only has an xG for the season of 6.05 but a better xA of 8.61 which still probably doesn’t cover quite how tricky he’s looked on the eye test when you consider Grealish has higher stats despite having been injured since the Leicester game way back when.

touts

Time to dump the key City Utd and Chelsea players. They have nothing to play for and European Finals to come. Even if they start they will not be giving 100%. I had enough money in the bank to do Bruno to Salah and did that two days ago before their price drops/rises.

Beyond that this weekend has a real end of year in school feeling about it. Impossible to predict who will go nuts and who won't even turn up.

claw

touts wrote: »

Time to dump the key City Utd and Chelsea players. They have nothing to play for and European Finals to come. Even if they start they will not be giving 100%. I had enough money in the bank to do Bruno to Salah and did that two days ago before their price drops/rises.

Beyond that this weekend has a real end of year in school feeling about it. Impossible to predict who will go nuts and who won't even turn up.

This is the second time I have read Chelsea have nothing to play for. If they don't win and Leicester and Liverpool do they are in the Europa League unless they win the Champions League final. I expect a full team from them on Sunday.

siblers

touts wrote: »

Time to dump the key City Utd and Chelsea players. They have nothing to play for and European Finals to come. Even if they start they will not be giving 100%. I had enough money in the bank to do Bruno to Salah and did that two days ago before their price drops/rises.

Beyond that this weekend has a real end of year in school feeling about it. Impossible to predict who will go nuts and who won't even turn up.

Chelsea need to win to guarantee CL spot so they'll be full strength

mamax

siblers wrote: »

Chelsea need to win to guarantee CL spot so they'll be full strength

Even with the final coming up?



Also with Salah and Kane going for the golden boot hard to know who to captain



Reading back here I think I might keep rudiger and captain Salah

Scorpion Sting

mamax wrote: »

Even with the final coming up?

As has been said if they lose and Liverpool and Leicester win they will be relying on beating Man City to have Champions League football next season.

Tuchel won’t want everything to be riding on the European match.

CSF

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

As has been said if they lose and Liverpool and Leicester win they will be relying on beating Man City to have Champions League football next season.

Tuchel won’t want everything to be riding on the European match.

Even if we manage a draw with them, the 2 sides can leapfrog them by a point with a win. It is proper squeaky bumtime for Chelsea on Sunday, particularly after we suddenly looked like a football team on Wednesday again with our Lord and saviour Jack Grealish back in the team.


Chelsea are rightly favourites of course, but it is far from a sure thing. I wouldn't be feeling defeated yet if I was a Leicester fan.

Farrelk

Chelsea are probably the team I'm looking to transfer in from. Currently have none of their players and thinking Cancelo - Chilwell /James. Unfortunately their full backs can be a guessing game at times

Dubliner28

Sticking with Bamford TC for the differential.
Have Salah.

Might move for Wood IN DCL out

clever user name

x43r0 wrote: »

Having best season in 12th season playing this. First year involved in a money league with a 2 point lead going into gw38.

Would love any input in case I'm making an obvious error here

2FT (+1M in the bank) in hand and rival has one FT

Last GW I brought in Greenwood to try and block a differential of his. If I had a bigger lead I'd probably do the same and block 2 more of his differentials but at 3 points it doesn't seem worth it

ATM I haven't a solid plan but Dallas seems like the most obvious one to bring in. I expect he'll bench Digne away to MCI and bring Phillips off the bench.

GK is an obvious weakness for me as Liverpool will almost certainly score so could switch if there's a strong contender. I expect Martinez isn't getting the CS against Chelsea though so maybe not a position where ground would be lost

In Mid will wait and see if there is any hints on the UTD lineup but otherwise can't see a change worth making since we have so many common players, unless I go fck it, throw in a differential and risk a UTD midfield points haul

Up front seems like the most potential for a swing either way. Watkins and Iheanacho did well for me gw37 and could see both getting returns

I'd definitely look at getting a Leeds player in, Bamford or Raphinia. I've got to imagine your rival will look at your team and do everything possible to get Salah in. That should be his main objective. So getting a Leeds player in elsewhere could serve you well. Maybe Watkins to Bamford, I really don't see Villa doing an awful lot against a Chelsea team that simply must win.

Goalkeeper is also a problem, they could easily concede 5 against Liverpool.

COH

Im at a bit of a loss as to what to do now... have had a good season (just about scraped myself into the top 10k) and have my private league in the bag (+60points) and have 2FT for this week.

I also have two players the definitely wont play: Maguire, Jota
Two players that might not play: Bruno, Shaw
And two players I dont want to start: Watkins, Konsa

Priority at this stage is to remain in the top 10k as have never finished in it before. Liverpool defence seems a must, TAA @7.8mil now is doable if downgrade Jota to fodder but still feels like team is left with considerable gaps if Bruno/Shaw are rested.

Fitz*

COH wrote: »

Im at a bit of a loss as to what to do now... have had a good season (just about scraped myself into the top 10k) and have my private league in the bag (+60points) and have 2FT for this week.

I also have two players the definitely wont play: Maguire, Jota
Two players that might not play: Bruno, Shaw
And two players I dont want to start: Watkins, Konsa

Priority at this stage is to remain in the top 10k as have never finished in it before. Liverpool defence seems a must, TAA @7.8mil now is doable if downgrade Jota to fodder but still feels like team is left with considerable gaps if Bruno/Shaw are rested.

Depending on your money and players, you could do something like

Bruno/Maguire/Jota -> Mane/Trent/Willock for a -4. You could even chance Sterling starting this game too, instead of Mane. Sterling didn't play the last league game and probably won't start the CL final either.

ArmaniJeanss

COH wrote: »

I also have two players the definitely wont play: Maguire, Jota
Two players that might not play: Bruno, Shaw
And two players I dont want to start: Watkins, Konsa

Why don't you want to start Watkins?
This is potentially a good game for him. He has been a steady points getter (as well as being terribly frustrating, and unlucky at times) and there are scenarios on Sunday which could make this a great game for him - e.g., Liverpool/Leicester winning in the second half meaning Chelsea have to go uncharacteristically gung-ho.
Grealish back is also a plus.

With your current team, I'd be perfectly happy starting him and instead fix your other issues.

x43r0

x43r0 wrote: »

Having best season in 12th season playing this. First year involved in a money league with a 2 point lead going into gw38.

Would love any input in case I'm making an obvious error here

2FT (+1M in the bank) in hand and rival has one FT

.......

Cheers for all the input on this. I don't think the points return on keeper merits using a FT

Will hold off until sunday lunch in the hope of some news but for now it's looking like:

Shaw -> Dallas
Watkins -> Bamford

If we get some team news on UTD in time then I might leave Watkins and put in Raphina for either Bruno/Greenwood

Could bring in all 3 Leeds options but a -4 in this situation sounds like madness considering Watkins could easily score at home to CHE

Green&Red

x43r0 wrote: »

Cheers for all the input on this. I don't think the points return on keeper merits using a FT

Will hold off until sunday lunch in the hope of some news but for now it's looking like:

Shaw -> Dallas
Watkins -> Bamford

If we get some team news on UTD in time then I might leave Watkins and put in Raphina for either Bruno/Greenwood

Could bring in all 3 Leeds options but a -4 in this situation sounds like madness considering Watkins could easily score at home to CHE

Not sure why you’d get rid of Watkins when he’s sure to play?
You’re bench is on fire, so if and when Bruno and Shaw don’t start you’ve Mitchell & Dendoncker to come in. That’s double palace defence against a team chasing goals for a top four spot
Bruno is the major differential there for me

Shaw & Bruno -> Dallas & Mane/Auba

Jim Gazebo

Bench two: Shaw, Mount, Lingard, Watkins, DCL ( I'll probably move him on before deadline to Bamford or Antonio so consider that)

I actually do want to play Watkins but it means benching Lingard then when the chasers all have him. Watkins has been doing very well lately and will fancy this game.

I am leaning towards benching DCL and Shaw but that might become Mount and Shaw if I move DCL on.

x43r0

Green&Red wrote: »

Not sure why you’d get rid of Watkins when he’s sure to play?
You’re bench is on fire, so if and when Bruno and Shaw don’t start you’ve Mitchell & Dendoncker to come in. That’s double palace defence against a team chasing goals for a top four spot
Bruno is the major differential there for me

Shaw & Bruno -> Dallas & Mane/Auba

Yeah fair points - TBH the front line is not where changes are most needed

I think it just boils down to which utd player is less likely to play but I'd be stunned if that's not Bruno


As a lfc fan I've watched every min of Mane playing and he's just not himself this season so have stayed away. I wouldn't have thought to touch Auba with a barge pole - What gives you confidence in him? Would have though Raphina was the more obvious MID pick

Green&Red

x43r0 wrote: »

Yeah fair points - TBH the front line is not where changes are most needed

I think it just boils down to which utd player is less likely to play but I'd be stunned if that's not Bruno


As a lfc fan I've watched every min of Mane playing and he's just not himself this season so have stayed away. I wouldn't have thought to touch Auba with a barge pole - What gives you confidence in him? Would have though Raphina was the more obvious MID pick

Auba is averaging 6 points/start from his last 12 starts and he can score heavily.

x43r0

Don't think I can bring myself to trust Arsenal players in fpl - They always burn me

I'm still fecked for a GK though - Worth a hit to replace Guaita with Casilla for the Leeds double up?

Guaita -> Casilla
Shaw -> Dallas
Bruno -> Mane

That gives up the 2pt lead to start on 2 behind but Guaita is about as certain as you can be to not get anything at anfield and Bielsa confirmed Casilla to play

ArmaniJeanss

x43r0 wrote: »

Don't think I can bring myself to trust Arsenal players in fpl - They always burn me

I'm still fecked for a GK though - Worth a hit to replace Guaita with Casilla for the Leeds double up?

Guaita -> Casilla
Shaw -> Dallas
Bruno -> Mane

That gives up the 2pt lead to start on 2 behind but Guaita is about as certain as you can be to not get anything at anfield and Bielsa confirmed Casilla to play

A minor point but if you do the above (and assuming you aren't short .1 or .2) you should probably consider Fabri to Casilla instead.
Just in case Casilla doesn't start, or is injured in warm-up.

x43r0

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A minor point but if you do the above (and assuming you aren't short .1 or .2) you should probably consider Fabri to Casilla instead.
Just in case Casilla doesn't start, or is injured in warm-up.

Good thought but .1 short

Zico !

City are rubbish at the back may hang onto DCL

trigger26

They were rubbish the other day after Cancelo getting sent off, they still do alright at the back towards most teams!

reading here I'm thinking more about bringing in Abu instead of Salah for Fernandes, I'm 2nd, 4 points behind, set of golf irons to be won this week.......

CSF

trigger26 wrote: »

They were rubbish the other day after Cancelo getting sent off, they still do alright at the back towards most teams!

reading here I'm thinking more about bringing in Abu instead of Salah for Fernandes, I'm 2nd, 4 points behind, set of golf irons to be won this week.......

Aubameyang ahead of Salah? Why?

Muahahaha

Who is likely to score the most points this week, Kane or Bamford? Its the only transfer Im thinking of doing after Kanes awful performance v Villa the other night

trigger26

CSF wrote: »

Aubameyang ahead of Salah? Why?

Rival will most likely bring in Salah and captain, we only have 4 differentials between us plus he has bamford, I'd prefer to take a risk to win, you never know with Crystal palace showing up for Roy's last day

trigger26

Muahahaha wrote: »

Who is likely to score the most points this week, Kane or Bamford? Its the only transfer Im thinking of doing after Kanes awful performance v Villa the other night

Kane has a decent scoring record vs Leicester

CSF

trigger26 wrote: »

Rival will most likely bring in Salah and captain, we only have 4 differentials between us plus he has bamford, I'd prefer to take a risk to win, you never know with Crystal palace showing up for Roy's last day

I don’t think the idea of a good differential is to pick someone who has been quite bad. There has to be someone your opponent does have who has been good/potentially explosive. Aubameyang has been awful and playing one of the better defences in the league, you’re kind of left relying on him to have a lucky throwback day to old times.

Raphinha? Mane? Firmino?

trigger26

CSF wrote: »

I don’t think the idea of a good differential is to pick someone who has been quite bad. There has to be someone your opponent does have who has been good/potentially explosive. Aubameyang has been awful and playing one of the better defences in the league, you’re kind of left relying on him to have a lucky throwback day to old times.

Raphinha? Mane? Firmino?

I've got Raphina and have 2 differential forwards, Mane is a good shout, the other option is getting rid of Shaw for a leeds/ pool defender, that's a real neggy move I'd prefer not to make, the more I think of it, Fernandes might be good to hang onto

COH

Fitz* wrote: »

Depending on your money and players, you could do something like

Bruno/Maguire/Jota -> Mane/Trent/Willock for a -4. You could even chance Sterling starting this game too, instead of Mane. Sterling didn't play the last league game and probably won't start the CL final either.

Sterling will NEVER go near my team again.. he joins an illustrious roster of never-againers that include Zaha and Vardy.

Dont have enough to do the -4 you suggest. Im raging I didnt pull the trigger on Maguire/Jota > TAA/Willock when I could but the price swings scuppered it.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Why don't you want to start Watkins?
This is potentially a good game for him. He has been a steady points getter (as well as being terribly frustrating, and unlucky at times) and there are scenarios on Sunday which could make this a great game for him - e.g., Liverpool/Leicester winning in the second half meaning Chelsea have to go uncharacteristically gung-ho.
Grealish back is also a plus.

With your current team, I'd be perfectly happy starting him and instead fix your other issues.

I dont see Villa getting anything from Chelsea and expecting a tense 1-0 type game there but you are right, I should just play him and focus on the other fires.

Anyone tempted by Robertson over TAA?

CSF

trigger26 wrote: »

I've got Raphina and have 2 differential forwards, Mane is a good shout, the other option is getting rid of Shaw for a leeds/ pool defender, that's a real neggy move I'd prefer not to make, the more I think of it, Fernandes might be good to hang onto

Robertson might not be that negative. High chance of a clean sheet and tbh are Aubameyang’s chance of an attacking return really significantly higher than Robertson’s at this stage?

Morzadec

Strategic transfers for me this week. Playing for some low money prizes in the boards money leagues for 4th/5th/6th places but will have to ignore that.

Have been comfortably leading a mini-league all year and to be honest have barely been looking at it as was so sure I had it wrapped up but I see now that one of the lads has snuck up to 20 pts behind me. Difference between 1st prize and 2nd is 200 quid.

Looking at his team, I have some coverage but where he really could hurt me is with his Leeds players. So I'll bring in Bamford and Dallas for Digne and Iheanacho as a defensive/blocking move.

4pt hit doesn't seem worth it for one week only but both those players are capable of hitting 15pts or so, so think I need to block them.

trigger26

CSF wrote: »

Robertson might not be that negative. High chance of a clean sheet and tbh are Aubameyang’s chance of an attacking return really significantly higher than Robertson’s at this stage?

Have robby too, cant afford trent but Philips was impressive the other night, alioski a very tempting buy

Morzadec

Mane is a great differential shout for this week if you can afford it, his numbers have actually been quite good lately and they could have been even better.

Mane captain would probably be the move I would be making if I was trying to close a gap greater than 15 pts or so

F1ngers

Nothing to play for.
Aguero in and giving him the armband.

NabyLadistheman

Any bleeding word will Forster be starting this GW?

Muahahaha

Morzadec wrote: »

Looking at his team, I have some coverage but where he really could hurt me is with his Leeds players. So I'll bring in Bamford and Dallas for Digne and Iheanacho as a defensive/blocking move.

4pt hit doesn't seem worth it for one week only but both those players are capable of hitting 15pts or so, so think I need to block them.

Yeah thats the only reason I think Ill do Kane to Bamford is to block a rival. He has got Harrison who hauled big recently so I dont want to let him have Bamford as a differential as well. Have a hunch that Leeds game could be a goal fest, they put 3 past Spurs, 4 past Burnley and 2 past Southampton in their last three games so West Brom look to be for the chopping block.

How Soon Is Now

Fairly sure im set on bringing in Bamford for Calvert Lewin at this stage Midfield is my issue.

Who would yous take out from Lingard Greenwood and Bruno?

That one is hard enough for me atm but then who would I even bring In! Haha.

Level 42

How Soon Is Now wrote: »

Fairly sure im set on bringing in Bamford for Calvert Lewin at this stage Midfield is my issue.

Who would yous take out from Lingard Greenwood and Bruno?

That one is hard enough for me atm but then who would I even bring In! Haha.

Bruno as hes not playing -if im wrong itll be terrible management from ole playing him in a dead rubber with a final on wed

greenwood outside chance hell play

How Soon Is Now

Level 42 wrote: »

Bruno as hes not playing -if im wrong itll be terrible management from ole playing him in a dead rubber with a final on wed

greenwood outside chance hell play

I'm gonna hold out as long as I can in hope Ole gives some kinda info before Sunday or at least someone on Twitter.

One of them will start im sure more likely Greenwood but thing is if you drop Fernandes and he plays your at a major risk as he's massively owned.

Level 42

How Soon Is Now wrote: »

I'm gonna hold out as long as I can in hope Ole gives some kinda info before Sunday or at least someone on Twitter.

One of them will start im sure more likely Greenwood but thing is if you drop Fernandes and he plays your at a major risk as he's massively owned.

I have bruno myself but will ship him out for either mane or auba -another issue is brunos playing crap lately and may do nowt away to wolves -get rid my advice

Scorpion Sting

NabyLadistheman wrote: »

Any bleeding word will Forster be starting this GW?

A lot of people are thinking Forster gets the last game ahead of McCarthy who has been fairly disappointing over the course of the season.

Ben Dinnery for instance thinks Hassenhuttl will go with the big man:

https://twitter.com/bendinnery/status/1395648343255109633?s=21

How Soon Is Now

Level 42 wrote: »

I have bruno myself but will ship him out for either mane or auba -another issue is brunos playing crap lately and may do nowt away to wolves -get rid my advice

Might just take the risk seeing as I've a fairly big lead in money league and doubt I can catch 1st in my other main league.

Morzadec

NabyLadistheman wrote: »

Any bleeding word will Forster be starting this GW?

Might get some news in the press conference, but as Scorpion Sting syas it's looking hopeful.

Ralph said he'd give them a couple of games each. Forster played 2, now McCarthy has played 2. So you'd think McCarthy has had his 2 and it's back to Forster. Also apparently McCarthy was poor for two recent goals. Also a recent penalty save for Forster probably does him no harm

So fingers crossed. I'm relying on Forster with Meslier's surprise benching catching me out.

NabyLadistheman

Morzadec wrote: »

So fingers crossed. I'm relying on Forster with Meslier's surprise benching catching me out.

Same as. Absolutely foaming with Bielsa I am

Scorpion Sting

Morzadec wrote: »

Might get some news in the press conference, but as Scorpion Sting syas it's looking hopeful.

Ralph said he'd give them a couple of games each. Forster played 2, now McCarthy has played 2. So you'd think McCarthy has had his 2 and it's back to Forster. Also apparently McCarthy was poor for two recent goals. Also a recent penalty save for Forster probably does him no harm

So fingers crossed. I'm relying on Forster with Meslier's surprise benching catching me out.

Hassenhuttl had his presser at lunchtime and didn’t mention the goalkeeper situation but based on the rotation pattern he’s adopted you’d have to imagine Forster gets this game.

CSF

One of the things I’m finding myself having to fight in my head, and others probably suffering this same thing, is this idea of last day of the season deja vu.

Almost as if all the games we’ve watched this season go out the window now, and we remember the season when some random guy like Batshuayi banged a monster haul on the final day, and go try and figure out who that’s gonna be.

Guys like Nicolas Pepe, Dwight Gayle, Said Benrahma. They’re the left field choice that you might see people punting on this week.

But I think the ignores that the pool of players who may come up with this haul basically encompasses every attacking player of any description. And the other thing is that you basically have an unexpected player get a double digit haul in nearly every gameweek.

Important to continue to make sensible choices while pursuing the right amount of good differentials to achieve your specific aims. Someone please remind me of this post if I’m on here Sunday morning thinking of pawning off a probably rested Bruno for Martinelli.

steve_r

CSF wrote: »

Important to continue to make sensible choices while pursuing the right amount of good differentials to achieve your specific aims. Someone please remind me of this post if I’m on here Sunday morning thinking of pawning off a probably rested Bruno for Martinelli.

In: Player who has scored feck all points this season!

Out: Player who has scored loads of points this season!

For a Hit!