(WHO) expert believes Ireland will have to re-impose regional restrictions

saabsaab

screamer wrote: »

Yes, it’s outcompeting all other strains. Problematic for us in Ireland as we’re nowhere near herd immunity and we saw what the imported original uk variant did here after Christmas- 5 months of lockdown later. Anyways equally worrying is that this is not virus transmission season, it should be slowing down significantly. Finally, we all need to understand that if other vaccine evading strains come along, we could well be forced back into lockdown. Vaccines are only the end game when they are effective against the attacker, otherwise it’s game on for the virus. I’m hoping beyond hope that is not the case, but it’s a possibility.

Yes it's a race now between the vaccines roll outs and the variants. Hope we win.

Micky 32

saabsaab wrote: »

Yes it's a race now between the vaccines roll outs and the variants. Hope we win.

The vaccines will win. Watch this space

DaSilva

If the virus is capable of mutating to completely evade previous immunity meaning it is as dangerous as it is now to the previously infected/vaccinated, then we are doomed because society is not going to go into lockdown indefinitely every year. Given that no other endemic virus in the entire history of mankind demonstrates this capability: Fast spread, constant total immune evasion, serious disease, I am reluctantly to believe this is the one.

If its capable of mutating enough to continue to infect people and sustain itself, so long as it does not cause severe disease in too many people, society will accept it, like it does with all the other endemic viruses. Given that there are many viruses that exhibit this behaviour (even other coronaviruses), I believe this is most likely the outcome for this virus.

To quote Ralph Baric from back in March 2020

In general coronaviruses infect young children and cause mild disease. Most of us become immune to the contemporary coronaviruses within the first few years of life, and that immunity may well be saving us as adults from viruses that are much like emerging coronaviruses, in terms of they have an innate capacity to cause much more severe disease as a function of age.
...
I am saying that we as a scientific community have defined contemporary human coronaviruses as mild common cold diseases. When in reality all of these emerged from animal reservoirs hundreds of years ago and we have no idea how severe they were in naïve adult populations. They were probably brutal disease just like SARS, MERS and SARS2 are to adult individuals as they get older. And if that hypothesis is true, then the prediction would be that as sars2 goes around the globe, and infects the adult population we will become immune and the virus will now preserve itself in the population by infecting young children who don't get serious disease as they grow up, they are pre-immune and so they never get serious disease and SARS2 will now be relegated to the role of being a benign common contemporary coronavirus that somehow lost its pathogenic potential, when the real reason it lost its pathogenic potential is that all adults are immune.

From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZe-7BRLZtI&t=2845s

JeffKenna

saabsaab wrote: »

Yes it's a race now between the vaccines roll outs and the variants. Hope we win.

Paddy Power quoting evens on the vaccines and 2/1 on the variants.

saabsaab

JeffKenna wrote: »

Paddy Power quoting evens on the vaccines and 2/1 on the variants.

On the last furlong now.. Its Indian Variant coming on strong but Pfizer Lad hanging on..

ShineOn7

I was on the Facebook app earlier enjoying chats in a FB Group I'm in and up pops a notification of the weekly briefing

It's Friday. I'm in a decent mood. "Don't click it. Don't click it. Don't click it"

Of course I clicked it. I wanted to hear the daily figures.

Here I am an hour later still listening to the briefing because of the ominous tone it's had almost throughout

"40-60% more transmittable"

"Dark cloud on the horizon"



And now fcuking George Lee is on! :pac:


Back to enjoying my Friday and switching it off now. There's loads of positivity out there (the good kind) regarding the Vaccines and they've barely touched on it

There is something quite worrying about today's briefing and this variant though and hopefully the much improved Vaccine ramp up will outpace any further waves

This country is pretty much spiritually broken in the last year and I'm not sure the population (any of it) will adhere to another Lockdown

TL:DR: Don't be on the Facebook app on Friday afternoons ;-)

Silentcorner

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"40-60% more transmittable"

Be very careful how you read those stats...

Every new variant is 50-60% more transmittable than the last...

At any given time the virus is surging somewhere in the world (Brazil/SA/UK) , that variant is then thought to be more transmittable when it is simply going through a surge some where...doesn't mean it will rip through this country in the off season.

We had a multitude of variants last summer, but nobody paid any attention to them....they only became a public issue last Nov after the vaccines were announced.

If the virus is mutating to such a degree that it 200% more transmittable than the first virus then what is the point of lock downs...the thing can penetrate walls the way it is going!!!

lawred2

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Dr Nabarro also believes the Indian variant will grow here.

He said that incidence of the variant will increase and it will be necessary to occasionally restrict movement and introduce widespread testing.

"There are going to be movement restrictions, at least in the foreseeable future," said Dr Nabarro.

"They will be localized but I don't think they will be nationwide movement restriction unless Ireland is very, very unlucky."

Just when we're looking at the end of the Tunnel, we're back to restrictions, the one thing Mr Nabarro fails to grasp is our Government don't do regional restrictions, it's all or nothing.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40294880.html

Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?

oh go away Dr Nabarro

El_Duderino 09

Why do people pretend to be certain when they don't actually have a clue? There's so much wishful thinking dressed up as statements of fact in this thread.

The truth is that we don't know what will happen next winter. We're in the summer period now and things are opening up and they will likely remain open during the summer and we're vaccinating at a rate that will mean all adults who want a vaccine will be vaccinated by winter. When the weather cools again then we will just have to see what happens. Maybe the vaccinations will mean there's no problem, maybe it won't be enough or there will be newer variants which mean we need restrictions or even lockdown.

Someone pretending to be certain about what will happen next winter or telling you its all over, is a sure sign of someone not worth listening to. They're telling you what they wish to happen and pretending it's a fact, not a wish.

eastie17

George Lee, jaysus

drunkmonkey

funnydoggy wrote: »

Who's AOC?

Tony (Abundance Of Caution)

Wolf359f

agoodpunt wrote: »

And this wont help either 3 suspected from india flee quarrantine

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/officials-hunt-three-relatives-who-24150643

Doesn't say anywhere on that page they were from India. They said they are Indian, massive difference. Travel bans are based on departure country, not the persons nationality. It's disgusting reporting.

Lumen

DaSilva wrote: »

Given that no other endemic virus in the entire history of mankind demonstrates this capability: Fast spread, constant total immune evasion, serious disease, I am reluctantly to believe this is the one.

IMO what makes COVID particularly difficult to deal with is that

(a) it just perfectly sits at the boundary between "just another mild virus", which we would do nothing to stop, and "horrific pathogen", which we would do everything to stop.

(b) it disproportionately affects most the people whose lives we attach least value to (I don't mean to be cruel, we do actually attach less value to older people, actuarially speaking). If it was killing 10% of babies we would do everything to stop it. 10% of 80 year olds? That's a harder sell.

If it had the kill-rate of MERS we'd all just retreat into our homes for a month, emerge, bury the dead and carry on.

CIARAN_BOYLE

funnydoggy wrote: »

Which one was that again? There's been so many lol

Was that the one around Christmas? Mike Ryan from the WHO said that it wasn't that variant that caused the surge, it was people socialising.

We went from 10% Kent variant late December to 90% Kent variant in mid February iirc.

I fully believe there would have been a surge either way. I do think it might have topped out at around 3,000-4,000 cases a day in early January instead of seeing highs of 6,000.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Why do people pretend to be certain when they don't actually have a clue? There's so much wishful thinking dressed up as statements of fact in this thread.

The truth is that we don't know what will happen next winter. We're in the summer period now and things are opening up and they will likely remain open during the summer and we're vaccinating at a rate that will mean all adults who want a vaccine will be vaccinated by winter. When the weather cools again then we will just have to see what happens. Maybe the vaccinations will mean there's no problem, maybe it won't be enough or there will be newer variants which mean we need restrictions or even lockdown.

Someone pretending to be certain about what will happen next winter or telling you its all over, is a sure sign of someone not worth listening to. They're telling you what they wish to happen and pretending it's a fact, not a wish.

The entire population of the world has now become an armchair expert on viruses and vaccines.

What could possibly go wrong?

ssssssass

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Dr Nabarro also believes the Indian variant will grow here.

He said that incidence of the variant will increase and it will be necessary to occasionally restrict movement and introduce widespread testing.

"There are going to be movement restrictions, at least in the foreseeable future," said Dr Nabarro.

"They will be localized but I don't think they will be nationwide movement restriction unless Ireland is very, very unlucky."

Just when we're looking at the end of the Tunnel, we're back to restrictions, the one thing Mr Nabarro fails to grasp is our Government don't do regional restrictions, it's all or nothing.



Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?

ohhh ye . hamilton beach blender

Del Griffith

What about the killer bees? When will they get here?

Between them, the Y2K bug and the Indian variant what chance have we got at all...

lawrencesummers

Is nabbaro the Spanish for holohan?

yaboya1

JeffKenna wrote: »

Paddy Power quoting evens on the vaccines and 2/1 on the variants.

I'll have €500 on at evens and €330 on at 2/1 please.


p.s. don't take up bookmaking

We’re in a desperate situation financially now. If a variant actually does manage to bypass the vaccines then we’ll need a solution that doesn’t involve forcing people out of work or closing society.

What’s the alternative? Wait around for another 2 years while a new vaccine is developed, tested, approved, rolled out?

And what if a new variant then emerges?

Dr. Bre

Just stay in lockdown forever . Never know what variant might get you

Dempo1

I've observed Dr Nabarro and indeed our very own Dr. Ryan, both of the WHO from the outset of this pandemic, to discribe them as consistent throughout would be 100% correct. NPHET has had its ups and downs but on the whole, consistent too. The problem clearly is people seem to believe their own Narrative.

I've been struck how these narratives develop, at the start of last summer, most Media outlets lost interest, very little coverage, summer came and went without pubs and the farcical outdoor dining. Christmas was upon us, free for all and of course we know what happened.

Suddenly, News outlets had a new invigorated interest, people started to listen to NPHET and the WHO. Roll on 100"s of deaths, 10"s of thousands of new cases but Vacinne Roll out was the game changer (where have we heard that before)

March 2021 arrives, loosening of restrictions, less and less coverage, less and less attention to the fact numbers have barely moved, not a second of concern about what was going on in India, Media almost begrudgingly mentioning case numbers and deaths and a developing concern about variants in the UK. Oddly barely a mention of our average case numbers of 500 for population of 4.9 million and UK case numbers 2600 to a population of 60 million. Of course its the Vacinnes stupid, was the narrative. The only concerns were those in Donegal and yet Offaly just before that far worse.

So then the Cyber attack which has crippled the Hospital system, some astonishing stories from frontline medics, Dark age work practices etc. It got me thinking, what if a new surge occurs, didn't really bare thinking about. It was just a genuine thought, not a conspiracy. Just think for one moment had we been in the Middle of a surge when the Cyber attack pretty much closed down our hospital systems, India and images coming out of there came to mind.

I got my first vaccine Dose at GP surgery yesterday (Pfizer) and delighted, sat beside a shopping centre manager while waiting the 15 minutes observation requirement. What he said kinda opened my eyes, small shopping centre, Midlands Town. People and I include elderly, removing masks inside the centre, Gangs of teenagers having to be removed hourly from congregating indoors. Zero social distancing etc. It's the Vacinne stupid, mentality, I've got mine, I'm alright, I'm too young to get sick etc.

Then yesterday NPHET, who by the way have almost gone into hiding raise a Genuine concern about the Indian Variant, then announcing over 500 new cases and my word, howls of angry commentary, Dr Death accusations, Open up the PUB"s etc etc commenced. Suddenly Media woke up, actually reporting on NPHET comments, actually discussing case numbers, a new found interest etc etc.

Folks, we're no where near were we need to be re Vacinations, we are less than 60 miles from the Welsh coastline, complacency gave us near 5 months of lockdown and if there's one thing I've learned over the past 14 months, it's listen, just a little to the F***** Science. Yes open gradually, Yes be careful and more importantly Vacinnes are certainly a game changer but this and other Virus enjoy playing Games but not on a level playing field I'm afraid. Dr Nabarro may be actually proven correct and NOT for the first time.

Wanderer78

drunkmonkey wrote:

Is this Indian variant worse than we're being lead to believe?

Who's leading us to believe, and what are 'they' not telling us?

Lumen

Dempo1 wrote: »

...small shopping centre, Midlands Town. People and I include elderly, removing masks inside the centre, Gangs of teenagers having to be removed hourly from congregating indoors. Zero social distancing etc. It's the Vacinne stupid, mentality, I've got mine, I'm alright, I'm too young to get sick etc.

They're right though. The elderly have been vaccinated and the young won't get sick.

We're left with a rump of a million or so 40-50 somethings and moderately higher risk people who are unvaccinated and hopefully cautious, waiting for the vaccines that they'll get in the next month.

This is my age group and we're still mostly hiding except from our vaccinated parents. We're not even meeting each other in gardens, except for the odd cup of tea. I went to Dundrum during the week, double masked, and didn't see any madness. Just a few queues of people in masks.

My personal concerns at this point are limited to catching it from my kids before I'm vaccinated, but the school hasn't had any outbreaks so far so I'm cautiously optimistic.

We're not out of the woods but we're not far off either.

whisky_galore

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

It's over, no more restrictions, vaccines are the end game.

It's not over until it's over.

Dempo1

Lumen wrote: »

They're right though. The elderly have been vaccinated and the young won't get sick.

We're left with a rump of a million or so 40-50 somethings and moderately higher risk people who are unvaccinated and hopefully cautious, waiting for the vaccines that they'll get in the next month.

This is my age group and we're still mostly hiding except from our vaccinated parents. We're not even meeting each other in gardens, except for the odd cup of tea. I went to Dundrum during the week, double masked, and didn't see any madness. Just a few queues of people in masks.

My personal concerns at this point are limited to catching it from my kids before I'm vaccinated, but the school hasn't had any outbreaks so far so I'm cautiously optimistic.

We're not out of the woods but we're not far off either.

You are aware those vaccinated can still get infected? You are aware of the lower median age of more recent case numbers? You are aware young people can and have got seriously ill with Covid? But more to the point, I'm not aware Mask Mandate has been removed in enclosed spaces let alot social distancing rules being relaxed, large group gatherings etc ?

My primary point is Complacency and where its got us in the past

daydorunrun

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

It's over, no more restrictions, vaccines are the end game.

It’s not over until the fat lady sings...........that she’s been fully vaccinated.

Lumen

Dempo1 wrote: »

You are aware those vaccinated can still get infected? You are aware of the lower median age of more recent case numbers? You are aware young people can and have got seriously ill with Covid? But more to the point, I'm not aware Mask Mandate has been removed in enclosed spaces let alot social distancing rules being relaxed, large group gatherings etc ?

My primary point is Complacency and where its got us in the past

I am aware of all of those things, but the concern needs to be moderated by the fact that in the unlikely event of another rise in cases, the rise will likely be flatter and far less damaging.

To your point about proximity to the UK, they're doing fine. A few small outbreaks amongst sub populations with different risk and behaviour profiles doesn't mean the country is sliding back into another wave of infection.

Lumen

Actually, I shouldn't say that a rise in cases is unlikely. I actually think it's a strong possibility.

It just doesn't bother me that much, apart from the dread of a government overreaction.

Lumen

On the point about behaviour, data beats anecdote...

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/foreign-holidays-the-price-we-must-pay-for-reopening-as-indian-variant-still-a-black-cloud-40455192.html

Professor Pete Lunn, who studies human behaviour at the Economic and Social Research Institute, said there is evidence of more forms of social activity. More people are going to work, there are more visits to homes, individuals are meeting with more people from outside their household, and there are higher numbers of close contacts. “This is to be expected as restrictions lift,” Prof Lunn said. “However, the data also reveals that these increases are much stronger among people who have been vaccinated.

“Most people who are not yet vaccinated are continuing to be cautious. Our data are consistent with the majority of people waiting until they are vaccinated before increasing their activity again.”