Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

is_that_so

leahyl wrote: »

What?

Hoping for before the end of June with all these second doses to do will only lead to disappointment and anxiety I'm afraid! July 15 is far enough away for you to be surprised by an earlier date!

Klonker

snotboogie wrote: »

Updated Eu table including the HSE numbers from yesterday:

Country per capita Date Reported
Malta 138 June 16th
Cyprus 83 June 16th
Belgium 78 June 16th
Germany 77.3 June 17th
Lithuania 75.5 June 17th
Netherlands 75.5 June 17th
Spain 74.5 June 16th
Austria 74 June 17th
Italy 73.5 June 17th
Luxembourg 73.5 June 17th
Portugal 71 June 17th
Denmark 70.5 June 16th
Greece 69.5 June 17th
France 68.5 June 16th
Ireland 68.5 June 17th
Poland 68.5 June 17th
Finland 67 June 17th
Slovenia 66 June 17th
Estonia 66 June 17th
Sweden 66 June 17th
Czech Rep 65.5 June 17th
Slovakia 58 June 17th
Latvia 55 June 17th
Croatia 54 June 16th
Romania 45 June 16th
Bulgaria 23.5 June 17th

Are we still missing some data from our figures? Just trying to work out why we are trailing behind the like of Germany and others.

RobertKK

I got a text from my doctors to register before tomorrow morning for a vaccine, if I had not yet got one.
I already got one - Pfizer BioNTech, and the other due in a couple of weeks, mid 40s, so maybe the doctors will end up speeding it up for younger age groups.

leahyl

is_that_so wrote: »

Hoping for before the end of June with all these second doses to do will only lead to disappointment and anxiety I'm afraid! July 15 is far enough away for you to be surprised by an earlier date!

Nah it really won’t, I’ll be fine, but thanks. Like I said, I’m not expecting it but there is absolutely no harm in being hopeful. I’m just happy I’m registered to be quite honest.

RobertKK

Klonker wrote: »

Are we still missing some data from our figures? Just trying to work out why we are trailing behind the like of Germany and others.

We don't have figures from doctors practices.

ShineOn7

seamus wrote: »

It's the most exciting thing most of us have had to look forward to in 15 months, don't suck the fun out of it

You're on Boards as long as me and we both started young

But for some reason I always thought you were mid to late 40s now

I blame your avatar :P

ShineOn7

RobertKK wrote: »

We don't have figures from doctors practices.

And surely the HSE vaccine data is in a jocker too?

I'd say they're guesstimating it based on supplies sent to MVCs

Klonker

RobertKK wrote: »

We don't have figures from doctors practices.

Cheers, thought that might be the case.

mossie

ShineOn7 wrote: »

And surely the HSE vaccine data is in a jocker too?

I'd say they're guesstimating it based on supplies sent to MVCs

Vaccine system is completely separate from the regular HSE network so they have full data on vaccines administered in MVCs. GPs are different

robinbird

josip wrote: »

I thought the GP orders the vaccine doses?
Why would the GP continue to order doses if all of their Cohort 7 patients are done?
It sounds like they're trying to curry favour with their own patients, instead of letting the Pfizer supply go to the MVCs where it's needed to get through older people.
And/or I think some of the GPs are trying to maximise the money they're getting for doing vaccinations.

There are now two main strands for administering vaccines.
1 Age cohort via MVCs
2 GPs to anyone on their patient lists (and their friends)

Ideally we should be just using MVCs as this would be fairer. However there is a capacity issue. The MVCS can't administer any more and we have a stockpile of unused vaccines. However much at the moment is not clear. All we know for sure is that when the HSE stopped releasing data five weeks ago there were 650,000 unused. Hopefully the advisory to the GPs from the HSE to vaccinate anyone they can will help reduce supplies. I'm sure by now everyone knows people that have been vaccinated by GPS before their age order. And concept of Cohort 7 is long gone.

An advantage is that every time an age cohort is opened the numbers will be smaller as a significant number of those will already been done through GPs.
Assume that soon enough the GPS will have run through their patient lists and have noone left to give them to. At that stage we will be back to MVCs only and if there is still stock in storage it will be given to pharmacies.

I think we will reach the stage where everyone that wants a jab will be given one soon even if the supply is reduced to 200k per week in July and these will be mostly used for second doses. This does not take into consideration the amount of unused vaccines available which could still be significant.

embraer170

snotboogie wrote: »

Updated Eu table including the HSE numbers from yesterday:

Country per capita Date Reported
Malta 138 June 16th
Cyprus 83 June 16th
Belgium 78 June 16th
Germany 77.3 June 17th
Lithuania 75.5 June 17th
Netherlands 75.5 June 17th
Spain 74.5 June 16th
Austria 74 June 17th
Italy 73.5 June 17th
Luxembourg 73.5 June 17th
Portugal 71 June 17th
Denmark 70.5 June 16th
Greece 69.5 June 17th
France 68.5 June 16th
Ireland 68.5 June 17th
Poland 68.5 June 17th
Finland 67 June 17th
Slovenia 66 June 17th
Estonia 66 June 17th
Sweden 66 June 17th
Czech Rep 65.5 June 17th
Slovakia 58 June 17th
Latvia 55 June 17th
Croatia 54 June 16th
Romania 45 June 16th
Bulgaria 23.5 June 17th

Thanks for posting. Really useful.

LJ3103

Hudur wrote: »

No text to 41yos in Dublin yet? Just wondering if they forget me

My wife is 43 and still hasn't received a text

odyssey06

LJ3103 wrote: »

My wife is 43 and still hasn't received a text

Have you double checked the portal?

Probably you have if reading the thread but thought I would mention it just in case. A colleague never got the appt text.

Cork2021

This surely can’t be right?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40317815.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

stephenjmcd

Cork2021 wrote: »

This surely can’t be right?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40317815.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

The 18-24 group probably won't start until late August/ early September, allow 4 weeks between doses and then 2 weeks to be considered fully vaccinated then yeah probably. If your first dose is first week of September it'll be middle of Ocotber when your considered fully vaccinated, mid September first dose will be start of November fully vaccinated etc

Flagged this weeks ago when the age restrictions were being put on vaccines that it would slow things down massively, some posters here said oh it'll only add a week or two onto the timelines. This is the proof that it adds a bit longer than that on. Ideally a waiver such as Germany to get J&J for example would speed things up.

Ficheall

Not at all surprising. Unis still planning to go ahead in Sept though.

Padre_Pio

Any chance of getting vaccinated up the north?

stephenjmcd

Ficheall wrote: »

Not at all surprising. Unis still planning to go ahead in Sept though.

And so they should.

The impact of covid should be again greatly reduced by then.

I'm in the 25-29 group so I'll be waiting a while yet but the parents, grandparents etc are all fully vaccinated or will be in the next week or two so for me now getting vaccinated is of course firstly to protect myself but also to travel without the hassle of getting a PCR each time, I've 1 trip planned for September so I don't mind doing it once or twice but I know now if I get covid it probably won't impact me that much but most importantly those around me are vaccinated so I'm happy to wait until whenever I'm called be it August or whenever it might be.

CalamariFritti

Question on vaccines and the 'delta variant'

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/994839/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

The way I read this (table 4, page 12) is that between Feb 1 and June 14 60,624 severe outcomes were attributed to the delta variant. Of which 73 lead to death (0.12%).

Interesting are the vaccination cohorts in that group. 35,521 of those were unvaccinated leading to 34 deaths amongst them. Whereas 4,087 have fully vaccinated status leading to 26 deaths.

This is far from a complete picture, for example it says nothing about age and we can assume that the fully vaccinated are on average significantly older than the unvaccinated. However, it appears that the death rate amongst the fully vaccinated is much higher (0.64%) than amongst the unvaccinated (0.1%).

I find this interesting not the least because I'm in the fully vaccinated cohort myself.

Discuss

larchielads

Just to let people know I just registered I'm 38. Born in 1983. It let me register from the home page didn't have to give false date to bypass the homepage. Maybe some people are aware already maybe not. Just said I'd let people know it can be done

duffman13

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Question on vaccines and the 'delta variant'

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/994839/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

The way I read this (table 4, page 12) is that between Feb 1 and June 14 60,624 severe outcomes were attributed to the delta variant. Of which 73 lead to death (0.12%).

Interesting are the vaccination cohorts in that group. 35,521 of those were unvaccinated leading to 34 deaths amongst them. Whereas 4,087 have fully vaccinated status leading to 26 deaths.

This is far from a complete picture, however, it appears that the death rate amongst the fully vaccinated is much higher (0.64%) than amongst the unvaccinated (0.1%).

I find this interesting not the least because I'm in the fully vaccinated cohort myself.

Discuss

I've not read it so just taking your numbers but a fairly simplistic read would be the majority of people vaccinated would be older with higher risk factors associated with it therefore might susceptible to the virus

We also don't know that Covid was the cause of death in any of the above deaths or possibly they died whilst infected with Covid 19

Edit: ^ Total deaths in any setting (regardless of hospitalisation status) within 28 days of positive specimen date.

Also page 44 of the report has data on vaccine effectiveness aswell which seems to show a slight improvement on vaccine effectiveness on Delta over Alpha after two doses which is positive too

robinbird

Cork2021 wrote: »

This surely can’t be right?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40317815.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The 18-24 group probably won't start until late August/ early September, allow 4 weeks between doses and then 2 weeks to be considered fully vaccinated then yeah probably. If your first dose is first week of September it'll be middle of Ocotber when your considered fully vaccinated, mid September first dose will be start of November fully vaccinated etc

Flagged this weeks ago when the age restrictions were being put on vaccines that it would slow things down massively, some posters here said oh it'll only add a week or two onto the timelines. This is the proof that it adds a bit longer than that on. Ideally a waiver such as Germany to get J&J for example would speed things up.

This is scare mongering. They have 20s and 30s left to give first vaccines to through MVC route.
A large number of these will already have received a vaccine.
When they stopped releasing data on May 12th approx 440,000 HCWs and Cohort 4/7 had received a first dose. In the last five weeks large numbers of younger people have been getting it through GPS. Take this in conjunction with increased vaccine hesitancy for younger people and the numbers left are not that large. Assume all college students will be offered it by early Aug so that they can go back to campuses in Sept.

Rebelbrowser

leahyl wrote: »

Exactly, Christ, what is wrong with people! It’s great just to be registered. A friend of mine is 42, registered 2 days before she was “supposed to” (a Wednesday), got a text on the Friday with appt for the following Tuesday - I’m not expecting this myself like but it just goes to show that it can happen very quickly. I do know there are more of us in 35-39 though

Just to agree with some posts on this leahyl. You absolutely could get lucky and be done in no time, especially here in Cork but it is so non linear you could equally be a month away. Better to assume the latter and be pleasantly surprised with the former if it happens. When friends a year older were getting appointments around 27 May I was convinced I'd be done and dusted in May. So I was a tad upset to have to wait until 16 June! That was a bit of an outlier but I know other people the exact same age in Cork city who got done 17 days apart. Anyway, you'll be done soon one way or other

CalamariFritti

duffman13 wrote: »

I've not read it so just taking your numbers but a fairly simplistic read would be the majority of people vaccinated would be older with higher risk factors associated with it therefore might susceptible to the virus

We also don't know that Covid was the cause of death in any of the above deaths or possibly they died whilst infected with Covid 19

Edit: ^ Total deaths in any setting (regardless of hospitalisation status) within 28 days of positive specimen date.

Thats how I would read this too. Looks like even vaccinations don't drive the death rate amongst the old below the death rate amongst the unvaccinated young. Thankfully either rate is very low in absolute numbers.

stephenjmcd

robinbird wrote: »

This is scare mongering. They have 20s and 30s left to give first vaccines to through MVC route.
A large number of these will already have received a vaccine.
When they stopped releasing data on May 12th approx 440,000 HCWs and Cohort 4/7 had received a first dose. In the last five weeks large numbers of younger people have been getting it through GPS. Take this in conjunction with increased vaccine hesitancy for younger people and the numbers left are not that large. Assume all college students will be offered it by early Aug so that they can go back to campuses in Sept.

There's no scaremongering, supply is due to reduce but we've still large numbers to get through. It's fairly straightforward, reduced supply, large numbers of second doses required, decrease in dose 1 = a longer wait time.

All college students offered by early August.... highly unlikely based on the numbers. They'll be doing well to have offered all the 30s dose 1 by then

We also don't appear to have a vaccine hesitancy issue seen in other countries, in my own experience everyone I know in my age group has said they'll be signing up.

Again no scaremongering this is simple supply & demand

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There's no scaremongering, supply is due to reduce but we've still large numbers to get through. It's fairly straightforward, reduced supply, large numbers of second doses required, decrease in dose 1 = a longer wait time.

All college students offered by early August.... highly unlikely based on the numbers. They'll be doing well to have offered all the 30s dose 1 by then

We also don't appear to have a vaccine hesitancy issue seen in other countries, in my own experience everyone I know in my age group has said they'll be signing up.

Which is great news in fact : means the chances of driving down the Covid numbers in Ireland to small figures later this year are excellent.

robinbird

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There's no scaremongering, supply is due to reduce but we've still large numbers to get through. It's fairly straightforward, reduced supply, large numbers of second doses required, decrease in dose 1 = a longer wait time.

Supply is over 300,000 a week at the moment and we still have large amounts in storage given how far ahead of us some other EU countries are with the same per capita deliveries. Germany 77 - Ireland 68. Don't see this being an issue.
We have a capacity issue at the moment. Not a supply issue.
By mid July anyone that wants a vaccine will be offered one.

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

Which is great news in fact : means the chances of driving down the Covid numbers in Ireland to small figures later this year are excellent.

Absolutely, we've seen how we can sustain 400 odd cases a day and the reduction of hospitalisations has kept going. Couple with the rollout into the 40s and then 30s we should be in a very good position to see the back of this I think. Fingers crossed anyway, sooner things are back to normal the better

Wolf359f

robinbird wrote: »

Supply is over 300,000 a week at the moment and we still have large amounts in storage given how far ahead of us some other EU countries are with the same per capita deliveries. Germany 77 - Ireland 68. Don't see this being an issue.
We have a capacity issue at the moment. Not a supply issue.
By mid July anyone that wants a vaccine will be offered one.

It's not the same per capita deliveries. In relation to Germany, some countries did not take up their full allotment of Pfizer or moderna, so Germany took some of their share. So per capita, Germany will get more.
Also Ireland didn't take up (afaik) an additional order of moderna which was due in Q4, but has been moved forward.

stephenjmcd

I think the examiner might have gone a bit over the top on Dr Henrys comments. They are right in saying the 18-24 group for example if they didn't get a first jab until the middle of September it would be start of November when they're considered fully vaccinated.

From the Irish times,

"HSE’s chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry said on RTÉ’s Brendan O’Connor show that all first doses of 40-49 age group is expected to be completed in the next couple of weeks, with their second dose of mRNA vaccine a month later.

He expects the 30-39 group to receive their first jab by the end of July or the start of August, with the 20-29 group getting their first jab after that. Dr Henry said he was “confident based on current supplies” that the cohort can be done by September."