Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

expectationlost

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I think the examiner might have gone a bit over the top on Dr Henrys comments. They are right in saying the 18-24 group for example if they didn't get a first jab until the middle of September it would be start of November when they're considered fully vaccinated.

From the Irish times,

"HSE’s chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry said on RTɒs Brendan O’Connor show that all first doses of 40-49 age group is expected to be completed in the next couple of weeks, with their second dose of mRNA vaccine a month later.

He expects the 30-39 group to receive their first jab by the end of July or the start of August, with the 20-29 group getting their first jab after that. Dr Henry said he was “confident based on current supplies” that the cohort can be done by September."

yes it would be more accurate to say fully vaccinated rather then till they get their vaccines

Cloudio9

So with 11 days to go in the quarter where are we likely to end up versus the target of having 83% of adults receiving first dose?

Tyrone212

stephenjmcd wrote: »

He expects the 30-39 group to receive their first jab by the end of July or the start of August, with the 20-29 group getting their first jab after that. Dr Henry said he was “confident based on current supplies” that the cohort can be done by September."

Could be mid to late September before 30s are fully vaccinated then. What a slow down.

stephenjmcd

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Could be mid to late September before 30s are fully vaccinated then. What a slow down.

Was expected really, 4 weeks and the 2 week gap. Don't see how that's anything new

robinbird

Cloudio9 wrote: »

So with 11 days to go in the quarter where are we likely to end up versus the target of having 83% of adults receiving first dose?

We are current on about 62% of adults with first dose.
However the US has been stuck on mid 60s for weeks. The leading EU countries are also having difficulty moving past mid 60s. This despite vaccines freely available to all and incentives.
Now I know Ireland is different and we do what we're told but I think vaccine hesitancy is being underestimated. A lot of younger people that wanted a vaccine will already have gotten one through GP so uptake amongst those left may not be as high as they anticipate.. If we can get to 70% first dose we probably will hit the same wall and vaccines for anyone that wants one with incentives will be rolled out at that stage. Possibly by mid July.

Just for comparison. Germany made vaccinations available to all adults from end of May. They are now offering them to children because of lack of uptake.
France opened up vaccines to all from June 7th.

Holding back supply to make vaccination more desirable may actually turn out to be a clever strategy.

robinbird

Rough estimate on AZ second jabs

HCWs. 260,000 - Mostly over 12 weeks and done
60-69s - 280,000 - Now being prioritised for second doses so close enough to 8 weeks
Cohort 4/7 - 270,000 - Down to 11 weeks but will not be completed till later.

So if they are going to give 100,000 AZ second jabs a week over 60s should be done by end of June with the Cohort 4s done by mid July.

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/covid-vaccines-provided-protection-in-over-95-pc-of-vaccinated-healthcare-workers-says-study20210616200420/

Good vaccine news from India.

dashoonage

Hi all

Has anyone seen Pfizer doses being 5 weeks instead of 4 ? I need to get mine at 4 weeks to be able to travel, however a parent is adamant there's was 5 weeks..

D

hynesie08

dashoonage wrote: »

Hi all

Has anyone seen Pfizer doses being 5 weeks instead of 4 ? I need to get mine at 4 weeks to be able to travel, however a parent is adamant there's was 5 weeks..

D

4 weeks is the point at which you're eligible for the second dose, not necessarily the exact time you get it.

robinbird

dashoonage wrote: »

Hi all

Has anyone seen Pfizer doses being 5 weeks instead of 4 ? I need to get mine at 4 weeks to be able to travel, however a parent is adamant there's was 5 weeks..

D

Yes. Because MVCs are already at capacity some have pushed second Pfizer out by a week. However if you need it earlier for travel reasons just turn up at a MVC and they will probably accommodate you.

It might push me further down the queue but I do think they need to aim to offer all college students a first dose in August/September, there were significant outbreaks linked to colleges particularly in Limerick and Galway last year, and generally students have had a rubbish time over the last year. They often live in crowded accommodation too.

They'll end up having to cancel on campus teaching again if it's not done.

Charles Babbage

stephenjmcd wrote: »

All college students offered by early August.... highly unlikely based on the numbers. They'll be doing well to have offered all the 30s dose 1 by then

Whatever the general state of the country, bringing 20,000+ unvaccinated people from every place into colleges in September would be a dangerous experiment. Perhaps they can use antigen tests to mitigate the damage, but that is a lot of work too.


They need to hunt around for supplies to get enough Pfizer and Moderna to keep the whole vaccination system, MVCs, GPs, and pharmacists going at full tilt.
Perhaps some of the Curevac contractors can expand Biontech production by August, as Curevac may not go ahead.

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

They'll end up having to cancel on campus teaching again if it's not done.

Exactly.

robinbird

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

It might push me further down the queue but I do think they need to aim to offer all college students a first dose in August/September, there were significant outbreaks linked to colleges particularly in Limerick and Galway last year, and generally students have had a rubbish time over the last year. They often live in crowded accommodation too.

They'll end up having to cancel on campus teaching again if it's not done.

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Whatever the general state of the country, bringing 20,000+ unvaccinated people from every place into colleges in September would be a dangerous experiment. Perhaps they can use antigen tests to mitigate the damage, but that is a lot of work too.



They need to hunt around for supplies to get enough Pfizer and Moderna to keep the whole vaccination system, MVCs, GPs, and pharmacists going at full tilt.

All college students will be offered a first dose in time for their second before college begins in Sept so early Aug at the latest. Would be amazed if anything else was planned.

titan18

They're on about offices going back too though. You can't prioritise students over others in their 20s and 30s cos some are going back to colleges whilst others are going back into offices.

JPup

Cloudio9 wrote: »

So with 11 days to go in the quarter where are we likely to end up versus the target of having 83% of adults receiving first dose?

The HSE moved away from that target a few weeks ago. More recently the target has become 70% of adults fully vaccinated by the end of July. That is still doable it seems and would put us on a par with the US at that point.

robinbird

titan18 wrote: »

They're on about offices going back too though. You can't prioritise students over others in their 20s and 30s cos some are going back to colleges whilst others are going back into offices.

Think Leo moved the offices back to August. We won't need to though.
Given vaccine hesitancy even in a country as compliant as Ireland vaccines will be offered to all by end July at the lastest. US, Belgium, Germany, France, Holland etc reached this point weeks ago. We are different but not that different.

Even in Ireland there will probably be 25% of adults that won't want a vaccine.
We are currently at about 62% so not far too to go.

Wolf359f

robinbird wrote: »

Rough estimate on AZ second jabs

HCWs. 260,000 - Mostly over 12 weeks and done
60-69s - 280,000 - Now being prioritised for second doses so close enough to 8 weeks
Cohort 4/7 - 270,000 - Down to 11 weeks but will not be completed till later.

So if they are going to give 100,000 AZ second jabs a week over 60s should be done by end of June with the Cohort 4s done by mid July.

I don't think your figures are accurate.
Only about 188k HCW's received AZ and cohort 4/7 was paused with AZ after about 60k doses.

robinbird

Wolf359f wrote: »

I don't think your figures are accurate.
Only about 188k HCW's received AZ and cohort 4/7 was paused with AZ after about 60k doses.

You're right. So given that HCWs should mostly be now done that would leave approx 280,000 over 60s and maybe 60K Cohort 4s.
If they did finished the over 12 wk HCWs last week and did 100,000 this week that would only leave around 250k doses in total still to do so maybe another three weeks. Unless they have to wait for a delivery in mid July to finish them.

Charles Babbage

titan18 wrote: »

They're on about offices going back too though. You can't prioritise students over others in their 20s and 30s cos some are going back to colleges whilst others are going back into offices.

They can and they should. Colleges have much much more social interaction than most offices where you work with the same dozen every day. Also office don't have to open on a certain date, some could wait until the start of October, colleges have a structured year that is very difficult to change.

But, as I said, sourcing some more vaccines and keeping the vaccination rate up would be the best solution for everyone.

Wolf359f

robinbird wrote: »

You're right. So given that HCWs should mostly be now done that would leave approx 280,000 over 60s and maybe 60K Cohort 4s.
If they did finished the over 12 wk HCWs last week and did 100,000 this week that would only leave around 250k doses in total still to do so maybe another three weeks. Unless they have to wait for a delivery in mid July to finish them.

Really miss having the dashboard updated. I've no clue how far along they are with second doses for HCW's, but they are doing second AZ doses concurrently for HCW's, cohort 4/7 and the 60-69 group. Hopefully they fly through them as them being at a higher risk and only having a single jab, I think if supply is there, dish them out!

titan18

Charles Babbage wrote: »

They can and they should. Colleges have much much more social interaction than most offices where you work with the same dozen every day. Also office don't have to open on a certain date, some could wait until the start of October, colleges have a structured year that is very difficult to change.

But, as I said, sourcing some more vaccines and keeping the vaccination rate up would be the best solution for everyone.

People will understandably freak if they're bumped down the vaccine queue so that students can socialise easier. Colleges can continue remote until the vaccination rolls down to them tbh. No one should be moved up the queue at this stage.

secman

I'm awaiting text for 2nd AZ vaccine, my wife has an appointment for next Friday morning, I'm considering calling HSE on Monday to see if we can get both of us done on Friday. Quite a few of the neighbours have been vaccinated on the same day. I have to bring my wife to Citywest and wait for her as it happens. Anyone else do this?

Cloudio9

JPup wrote: »

The HSE moved away from that target a few weeks ago. More recently the target has become 70% of adults fully vaccinated by the end of July. That is still doable it seems and would put us on a par with the US at that point.

It doesn’t matter if the hse moved away from it because they weren’t going to hit it! That’s not how measurement of performance against targets works. You don’t just get to move the goalposts.

But sounds like we’re going to miss it by quite a margin for various reasons.

lukas8888

secman wrote: »

I'm awaiting text for 2nd AZ vaccine, my wife has an appointment for next Friday morning, I'm considering calling HSE on Monday to see if we can get both of us done on Friday. Quite a few of the neighbours have been vaccinated on the same day. I have to bring my wife to Citywest and wait for her as it happens. Anyone else do this?

Yes i did it, but i did not call the HSE just turned up with my wife and had no problem.

civdef

secman wrote: »

I'm awaiting text for 2nd AZ vaccine, my wife has an appointment for next Friday morning, I'm considering calling HSE on Monday to see if we can get both of us done on Friday. Quite a few of the neighbours have been vaccinated on the same day. I have to bring my wife to Citywest and wait for her as it happens. Anyone else do this?

Turn up and ask - you probably have a very good chance, especially in the morning.

funnydoggy

stephenjmcd I could've sworn you were in your 30s at least. You're probably the same age as me :pac: !

Chances of going back to college full time in September? I feel good about it.

stephenjmcd

funnydoggy wrote: »

stephenjmcd I could've sworn you were in your 30s at least. You're probably the same age as me :pac: !

Chances of going back to college full time in September? I feel good about it.

Haha I'm a good while out of college anyway.

If I was to guess I'd say they might go with blended learning, purely because it'll probably move that way eventually anyway. No idea though

Strazdas

Looks like there are big shipments incoming in the next week :

Professor Brian MacCraith said between 23 June and 30 June there will be three major deliveries each greater than 300,000 doses, the largest since the vaccination programme began.

He said: "Two of the major deliveries are Pfizer, one of them 317,000 and the other 318,000, and the other is 300,000 from AstraZeneca, which will be very important in terms of the accelerated dose interval for AstraZeneca from 12 weeks to 8 weeks."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0619/1229072-coronavirus-ireland/

To the experts here, is this as predicted or a big increase in fact?

eoinbn

Strazdas wrote: »

Looks like there are big shipments incoming in the next week :

Professor Brian MacCraith said between 23 June and 30 June there will be three major deliveries each greater than 300,000 doses, the largest since the vaccination programme began.

He said: "Two of the major deliveries are Pfizer, one of them 317,000 and the other 318,000, and the other is 300,000 from AstraZeneca, which will be very important in terms of the accelerated dose interval for AstraZeneca from 12 weeks to 8 weeks."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0619/1229072-coronavirus-ireland/

To the experts here, is this as predicted or a big increase in fact?

The last few Pfizer shipments have been smaller than expected. This week we got 251k instead of 284k. The 317/318k is to make up for that.
Still a few bumper weeks ahead. 350k from AZ expected before the end of the month.

Strazdas

eoinbn wrote: »

The last few Pfizer shipments have been smaller than expected. This week we got 251k instead of 284k. The 317/318k is to make up for that.
Still a few bumper weeks ahead. 350k from AZ expected before the end of the month.

It sounds a lot anyway : 635k Pfizer doses before the month is out is a big shipment by any stretch of the imagination.