Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

lucernarian

xboxdad wrote: »

40-60% more transmissible variant can outweigh the benefits coming from our current state of vaccination. I assume this is why the modelling algorithm returned those results.

Does this modelling assume vaccination doesn't protect against the delta variant or what?

GLaDOS

Live right by DCU, Helix closing just in time to miss me

Croke Park be easier than Swords

is_that_so

GLaDOS wrote: »

Live right by DCU, Helix closing just in time to miss me

Croke Park be easier than Swords

If you or someone you know drives it's right by the airport.

GLaDOS

I do drive, so I'll manage either way, but would have preferred an easy stroll to DCU :pac:

is_that_so

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Yes, because they made a balls of it in December when NPHET were right....and just maybe they're right again.

Modelling isn't guesswork. It's based on evidence and while not an exact science there's a certain degree of certainty of outcomes within certain ranges.

Epidemiological modelling just does disease. It doesn't include human behaviour nor any other factors so that puts it in the wild guess territory. What evidence do you imagine these enormous numbers are based on?

xboxdad

lucernarian wrote: »

Does this modelling assume vaccination doesn't protect against the delta variant or what?

No, it doesn't mean that.

It'd mean that compared to the original virus vs a fully unvaccinated population at Christmas, a 40-60% more transmissible virus can create a similar or even larger number of infections on the currently still very substantial unvaccinated population, in the same amount of time.

That's how I understand it personally.

PTH2009

I'm guessing it's going to take weeks for the all age approval of the vaccines

Tbh the decision should be imminent as its aiding the opening up of the country in a way

WoollyRedHat

PTH2009 wrote: »

I'm guessing it's going to take weeks for the all age approval of the vaccines

Tbh the decision should be imminent as its aiding the opening up of the country in a way

Yeah the HSE Rep. for the pharmacies is away in the Canaries and he doesn't have access to emails so they have to wait until he comes back.

funnydoggy

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Yeah the HSE Rep. for the pharmacies is away in the Canaries and doesn't have access to emails so they have to wait until be he comes back.

What's worse is that I can't tell if you're joking or not lol :pac:

Apogee

Irish Examiner wrote:

Some 318,000 doses of Pfizer vaccines will arrive here today in the biggest delivery so far.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40325840.html

Sunny Dayz

Quick q - what vaccines are currently suitable for under 18 - ie a 16/17 year old?

josip

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

In the exact same position as before, with NPHET making recommendations and the Government making decisions?

Why are NPHET's recommendations always 'leaked' to the press the day before the cabinet meets to discuss them?
They seem to do a bit more than boiler plate 'advising'.

Strazdas

PTH2009 wrote: »

I'm guessing it's going to take weeks for the all age approval of the vaccines

Tbh the decision should be imminent as its aiding the opening up of the country in a way

I believe a decision is imminent in fact. I was reading last night that the HSE are working on the new NIAC advice and expect to make an announcement 'very soon'.

VG31

Sunny Dayz wrote: »

Quick q - what vaccines are currently suitable for under 18 - ie a 16/17 year old?

I think only Pfizer is approved here for 16-18s.

is_that_so

josip wrote: »

Why are NPHET's recommendations always 'leaked' to the press the day before the cabinet meets to discuss them?
They seem to do a bit more than boiler plate 'advising'.

It depends what's in them but they are now published anyway.

Amirani

josip wrote: »

Why are NPHET's recommendations always 'leaked' to the press the day before the cabinet meets to discuss them?
They seem to do a bit more than boiler plate 'advising'.

It's clearly Government ministers (or advisors) that leak this stuff. They leak everything, regardless of whether it's Covid related or not.

josip

josip wrote: »

Why are NPHET's recommendations always 'leaked' to the press the day before the cabinet meets to discuss them?
They seem to do a bit more than boiler plate 'advising'.

I imagine it's firefighting before the blame game happens....

The government ignored them when they shouldn't have early on in the pandemic, and now here we are...

The advised last year to have one big lockdown straight away so they could bolster health services, but didn't...

I also imagine the huge numbers in the models take into account Ireland's ICU's being overwhelmed quite fast...

That's worst case obviously, which they are naturally going to lean towards with a vaccinated population well under heard immunity numbers...

It also assumes that the delta variant is more deadly, which a lot of people will argue it's not, just more transmissible

IRISHSPORTSGUY

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1409143255846035466

Moderna will be delivering more than expected to Germany in July and then doubling in August. I expect this is EU-wide?

political analyst

happywednesday wrote: »

I imagine it's firefighting before the blame game happens....

The government ignored them when they shouldn't have early on in the pandemic, and now here we are...

The advised last year to have one big lockdown straight away so they could bolster health services, but didn't...

I also imagine the huge numbers in the models take into account Ireland's ICU's being overwhelmed quite fast...

That's worst case obviously, which they are naturally going to lean towards with a vaccinated population well under heard immunity numbers...

It also assumes that the delta variant is more deadly, which a lot of people will argue it's not, just more transmissible

Surely, the Delta variant has been around long enough for scientists to know whether or not it is deadlier than either the original strain or the Kent variant.

Scientists' use of the phrase 'we don't know enough about it' is getting very tedious. Either they know or they don't know.

is_that_so

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1409143255846035466

Moderna will be delivering more than expected to Germany in July and then doubling in August. I expect this is EU-wide?

Should be now that they have more or less fulfilled their US contracts. It's always been a Q3 vaccine for volume.

Bridge93

Have we any sense when the pharmacies are likely to start vaccinating the under 50s with Jansen?

political analyst

political analyst wrote: »

Surely, the Delta variant has been around long enough for scientists to know whether or not it is deadlier than either the original strain or the Kent variant.

Scientists' use of the phrase 'we don't know enough about it' is getting very tedious. Either they know or they don't know.

I'd say they just don't know...

There are more variables with the delta variant over the earlier ones, such as:

-if the vaccine is partially effective against it, that would suggest previous infection of a different variant would give similar protection, meaning there isn't a level "infection field"

-people who are vulnerable to COVID are mostly already dead, vaccinated or recovered from it

this complicates models, as you don't have such a clear cut answer to a lot of these new variables

one thing that remains though is, Ireland's health service is in ****e, and doesn't take much to overwhelm, and if this variant has the potential to spike hospitalisations (which, judging by the UK, it has potential to, even in a vaccinated population),you will get a lot of people getting a lot sicker/dying due to lack of available care

is_that_so

Bridge93 wrote: »

Have we any sense when the pharmacies are likely to start vaccinating the under 50s with Jansen?

Nope, HSE will say.

Azatadine

is_that_so wrote: »

Nope, HSE will say.

Having got the Janssen myself a couple of months ago, I'm curious to know if they have plans to use a booster.....

lucernarian

xboxdad wrote: »

No, it doesn't mean that.

It'd mean that compared to the original virus vs a fully unvaccinated population at Christmas, a 40-60% more transmissible virus can create a similar or even larger number of infections on the currently still very substantial unvaccinated population, in the same amount of time.

That's how I understand it personally.

More than 5 times more cases than that scenario, despite the huge numbers of both previously infected and single or fully dosed people already? Which will increase too? RTE commissioned some modelling a couple of weeks ago, and they estimated total community immunity to be at like 43% at the time. That is a HUGE amount of people and dramatically changes the outlook and modelling parameters.

is_that_so

Azatadine wrote: »

Having got the Janssen myself a couple of months ago, I'm curious to know if they have plans to use a booster.....

There is talk but the primary aim is to get the first round in. Certainly the likes of care homes and the very vulnerable would be first but well into the autumn before they look at it IMO.

Azatadine

is_that_so wrote: »

There is talk but the primary aim is to get the first round in. Certainly the likes of care homes and the very vulnerable would be first but well into the autumn before they look at it IMO.

Yeah, I think you're right and that's how it should be too anyway.

skinny90

Hi Folks,

I suffer from asthma, its persistent.

I didnt know I could have gone to my GP to avail of the Vaccine.

I spoke to a friend whos Asthma would be less severe who just received his 2nd jab.

I contacted my GP who informed me that as of 28th of May they are not giving C19 Jabs.

I asked for them if it was possible to refer me to another GP who is still participating in giving jabs

Is this possible?

They are saying its not possible.

They always have been quite rude and blunt but I just said check.

I am in my 20s so i will be waiting some time

odyssey06

skinny90 wrote: »

Hi Folks,
I suffer from asthma, its persistent.
I didnt know I could have gone to my GP to avail of the Vaccine.
I spoke to a friend whos Asthma would be less severe who just received his 2nd jab.
I contacted my GP who informed me that as of 28th of May they are not giving C19 Jabs.
I asked for them if it was possible to refer me to another GP who is still participating in giving jabs
Is this possible?
They are saying its not possible.
They always have been quite rude and blunt but I just said check.
I am in my 20s so i will be waiting some time

See this thread, there is a portal which GPs can use to refer you for vaccination at an MVC
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=117543876

The HSE sent out comms to all GP practices on this rollout - it had been delayed by the cyber attack.

Stark

I know quite a few people (35-39, no underlying conditions) who have been vaccinated in their local GP in the last week or so. Am going to ring my own GP tomorrow to see if he's doing vaccines.