Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

Lumen

RTE wrote:

State will receive 285,000 doses of Pfizer's mRNA vaccine per week in June as well as second-dose AstraZeneca vaccines for healthcare workers, would be enough to satisfy the pace of the vaccination programme even without J&J vaccine

Good news but is it true?

The target is 80% of adults first-dosed by end of June. That's 3m first doses.

How many first doses are we at now?

MM says we should hit 50% of adults "by next week", whatever that means. Start of the week? End of the week?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-says-50-of-eligible-adults-will-have-first-vaccine-dose-by-next-week-1.4576233

Let's assume mid-week, 2 June.

That gives four weeks for 3/8 of 3m. 1.125m doses. 280k/week, which is our entire new supply of Pfizer.

But what about second doses of Pfizer?

Maybe we have sufficient stocks of Pfizer already? Maybe they're are a few more first doses of Moderna, AZ? Maybe they're counting on some J&J being dosed.

Perhaps the J+J will be offered to all ages and then young people who want to travel without PCR testing in July+August will choose it.

Goldengirl

Goldengirl wrote: »

That is not what this is about .
That Twitter thread talking about memory BCells providing lifetime immunity once recovered from Covid infection .
This has not been shown but " may " happen as these bone marrow cells provide lasting immunity and produce antibodies to the infection.
However this would be shown to be from the strain infected with , but no proof whatsoever that it will provide lasting immunity to variants .
Nobody is talking about vaccine evasion, I am saying the opposite .
Boosters tweaked for variants will most likely be needed.

Studies have shown as the protection of neutralizing antibodies decreases the protection from memory cells is preserved. There's a good talk on it here worth the time to watch. The thread also includes links to said studies:

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1397669200538210304?s=20

This image sums it up well.

eoinbn

Lumen wrote: »

Good news but is it true?

The target is 80% of adults first-dosed by end of June. That's 3m first doses.

How many first doses are we at now?

MM says we should hit 50% of adults "by next week", whatever that means. Start of the week? End of the week?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-says-50-of-eligible-adults-will-have-first-vaccine-dose-by-next-week-1.4576233

Let's assume mid-week, 2 June.

That gives four weeks for 3/8 of 3m. 1.125m doses. 280k/week, which is our entire new supply of Pfizer.

But what about second doses of Pfizer?

Maybe we have sufficient stocks of Pfizer already? Maybe they're are a few more first doses of Moderna, AZ? Maybe they're counting on some J&J being dosed.

Perhaps the J+J will be offered to all ages and then young people who want to travel without PCR testing in July+August will choose it.

All that tweet says is that 285k Pfizer/BioNtech + AZ second doses will be enough for us to maintain the current rate of 300k.

funnydoggy

Any update on Curevac?

is_that_so

funnydoggy wrote: »

Any update on Curevac?

From yesterday, Q2 ends in June

"CureVac said it was expecting to publish data from Phase 2b/3 trials of its vaccine candidate in the second quarter, which would allow it to finalize its rolling submission with the European Medicines Agency."

Vaccinated30

reubenreuben wrote: »

That's it, eat as much as possible, smoke as much as possible, drink as much as possible.

Basically don't give a hoop about how healthy you are and then expect a 'priority' to get a vaccine because you are a fat feck.

Great system that is.

utter bs

So you think fat people deserve to die?

Rosereynolds

With the new Pfizer deliveries, will be be left with excess J&J?

revelman

Portal for 44-40 year olds to open in the middle of next week

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0527/1224146-vaccinations-hse-cyber/

is_that_so

Rosereynolds wrote: »

With the new Pfizer deliveries, will be be left with excess J&J?

Probably not. Report upthread from FT on German research which suggests they may know how to fix the problem.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1397829751016931328

stephenjmcd

Donnelly on J&J for June

Ireland had contract for 600k J&J in Q2 but now
– best case 235k
- worst case 60k

Given the NIAC advice anyway it was likely we'd end up using very little of it anyway. This will just push out the end dates and delay u30s probably by a good few weeks, it was inevitable really after the advice given on J&J but we won't dig that up again.

2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna to replace each lost J&J dose, not ideal really

AdamD

Quite amazing really that outside of Pfizer we've been pretty consistently let down

pc7

AdamD wrote: »

Quite amazing really that outside of Pfizer we've been pretty consistently let down

Was it the couple who developed Pfeizer? They picked the right company to partner with, they have been excellent in fairness, really stepped up and have saved our bacon.

stephenjmcd

pc7 wrote: »

Was it the couple who developed Pfeizer? They picked the right company to partner with, they have been excellent in fairness, really stepped up and have saved our bacon.

Yes BioNTech is Dr. Ugur Sahin and his wife Dr. Özlem Türeci . They partnered up with the best choice really, proven track record and ability to produce at massive scale

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Donnelly on J&J for June

Ireland had contract for 600k J&J in June but now
– best case 235k
- worst case 60k

Given the NIAC advice anyway it was likely we'd end up using very little of it anyway. This will just push out the end dates and delay u30s probably by a good few weeks, it was inevitable really after the advice given on J&J but we won't dig that up again.

2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna to replace each lost J&J dose, not ideal really

One thing I'm wondering is what Pfizer supplies will be in July. If they are at the same level as June, they will mostly be needed for 2nd doses of people who got 1st doses in June, so our progress on 1st doses will be very slow in July.

pc7

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

so our progress on 1st doses will be very slow in July.

Would there be huge numbers left by then? I know the 40-44 is a huge demographic but a large number may have been caught as HCW or cohort 4/7 so it may go quicker. Hopefully we start getting real stats again to see how its looking.

revelman

Roisin Shorthall in the Dail saying that, after second dose, AZ “only offers 60% protection” against the Indian variant. She argues that some of those who received a first dose of AZ should now receive a second dose of Pfizer.

Donnelly replies by saying those figures are from the PHE study and talks more generally about the benefit of AZ for society as a whole.

Why, on earth, is this narrative being spun all the time and scaring people out of their wits? Why, can our Minister for Health not try to set the narrative and explain that while the headline figure is 60%, PHE scientists fully expect much higher levels of protection against hospitalisation and death. They just don’t have all data on this yet.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/phe-covid-vaccines-india-variant/

I find this narrative so frustrating.

Lumen

pc7 wrote: »

Would there be huge numbers left by then? I know the 40-44 is a huge demographic but a large number may have been caught as HCW or cohort 4/7 so it may go quicker. Hopefully we start getting real stats again to see how its looking.

I don't think we're going to get to the under 30s until July.

drunkmonkey

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

So you think fat people deserve to die?

They don't but it's a discussion that needs to be had without all the emotion, we've had since March last year to help people come out of a high risk group, if anything just from my own observations people have put on more weight including myself, this was all about saving the hospitals yet about 78% of hospital admissions from covid are obese.
Luke O'Neill said this morning that transplant and Cancer patients aren't high risk, people with asthma have also been under indexing when you'd assume they are also high risk.
Forget about the hospitality vouchers, put the money towards vouchers for gyms, pools, personal trainers, exercise equipment, dieticians etc that will have a long term effect on freeing up hospital beds.

pc7

Lumen wrote: »

I don't think we're going to get to the under 30s until July.

They'll be the most hesitant too, hopefully pfeizer pulls out a few more rabbits.

PhoenixParker

My prediction is that they'll open the portal to all around mid June. Any J&J they get will go to the pharmacies and anyone who's willing to get J&J will be able to get it through the pharmacies who can operate their own booking systems.

Lumen

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They don't but it's a discussion that needs to be had without all the emotion, we've had since March last year to help people come out of a high risk group, if anything just from my own observations people have put on more weight including myself, this was all about saving the hospitals yet about 78% of hospital admissions from covid are obese.
Luke O'Neill said this morning that transplant and Cancer patients aren't high risk, people with asthma have also been under indexing when you'd assume they are also high risk.
Forget about the hospitality vouchers, put the money towards vouchers for gyms, pools, personal trainers, exercise equipment, dieticians etc that will have a long term effect on freeing up hospital beds.

All of the remedies that you propose now have been unavailable for the past year due to lockdowns. For several months we couldn't even cycle outdoors except in small circles!

Fat shaming in a pandemic is really not a good look.

Rebelbrowser

Not sure if discussed already but see https://extra.ie/2021/05/26/news/politics/vaccination-portal-40-45-fine-gael-pp-varadkar - J&J now a choice option for 40-44 year olds?

revelman

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/german-scientists-claim-to-have-solved-covid-vaccine-blood-clot-puzzle-1.4576752

Scientists in Germany claim to have cracked the cause of the rare blood clots linked to the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccines and believe the jabs could be tweaked to stop the reaction happening altogether.

What I found particularly interesting was that J&J have already been in touch with this professor asking for guidance. Also, the professor says J&J vaccine is less prone to this problem (called “splicing”) than the AZ jab, which means the clot problem is less common for J&J

xboxdad

Lumen wrote: »

I'm not where you're going with this, or whether this addresses any of your questions, but from the research summaries I've read, people infected with the COVID virus are most infectious before the onset of symptoms. This is why we have a COVID pandemic.

Other diseases (like Ebola, for instance) are not transmissible until after onset of symptoms. That's why we don't have an Ebola pandemic.

AFAIK the asymptomatic part for unvaccinated people is not guaranteed to last for 14 days. Ppl can get sick just days after contracting the virus, e.g. they stay out of society and stay in bed form say day 3. E.g. the unvaccinated teacher will stay home and won't go to work from day 3, avoiding infecting 40 unvaccinated children.

My question was, will the vaccine guarantee that the same infected, asymptomatic person remains feeling well, e.g. mixes with the population for the entire 14 days instead of the 3 in the example above. E.g. is the vaccinated infected teacher now guaranteed to feel great/be unaware of their condition and go to work and potentially infect 40 unvaccinated children?


I hope it clears the question up.

GLaDOS

revelman wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/german-scientists-claim-to-have-solved-covid-vaccine-blood-clot-puzzle-1.4576752



What I found particularly interesting was that J&J have already been in touch with this professor asking for guidance. Also, the professor says J&J vaccine is less prone to this problem (called “splicing”) than the AZ jab, which means the clot problem is less common for J&J

Wow, this could be massive in terms of the younger rollout. Really interesting work.

Splicing usually refers to what happens with the genetic material, rather than the protein. May just be simplifying for a lay publication however.

seamie78

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They don't but it's a discussion that needs to be had without all the emotion, we've had since March last year to help people come out of a high risk group, if anything just from my own observations people have put on more weight including myself, this was all about saving the hospitals yet about 78% of hospital admissions from covid are obese.
Luke O'Neill said this morning that transplant and Cancer patients aren't high risk, people with asthma have also been under indexing when you'd assume they are also high risk.
Forget about the hospitality vouchers, put the money towards vouchers for gyms, pools, personal trainers, exercise equipment, dieticians etc that will have a long term effect on freeing up hospital beds.

and if someone injures themselves in a gym or falls off a bike should they get treatment? only have themselves to blame really

xboxdad

PhoenixParker wrote: »

As Lumen notes, transmission is most likely to occur before symptoms so the 10% tied to a bed have most likely done their infecting before they got that far.

Well, I'd expect there is a very significant difference in outcome between the infected teacher going to work for 3 days or 14 days.

In the existing stats, ppl are equal, the examples discuss mechanisms in homogeneous groups and it's all great that way.

However, in reality, we started forcibly breaking up ppl into two groups:
Adults and unvaccinated children.

From this point on, we need to make absolutely sure that an unvaccinated person (children) will not be exposed to a gradually increasing amount of danger as vaccinations in the artificially created "adults" group progress.

Therefore it is very important for me to see that the overall days asymptomatic ppl will walk around isn't increasing in the population.

The 10% vs 0.5% in your original stats does certainly look like a great start for this calculation, but until we know the average "walk around time feeling great" in each group, it doesn't mean much for the situations I worry about.

PhoenixParker

xboxdad wrote: »

Well, I'd expect there is a very significant difference in outcome between the infected teacher going to work for 3 days or 14 days.

In the existing stats, ppl are equal, the examples discuss mechanisms in homogeneous groups and it's all great that way.

However, in reality, we started forcibly breaking up ppl into two groups:
Adults and unvaccinated children.

From this point on, we need to make absolutely sure that an unvaccinated person (children) will not be exposed to a gradually increasing amount of danger as vaccinations in the artificially created "adults" group progress.

Therefore it is very important for me to see that the overall days asymptomatic ppl will walk around isn't increasing in the population.

The 10% vs 0.5% in your original stats does certainly look like a great start for this calculation, but until we know the average "walk around time feeling great" in each group, it doesn't mean much for the situations I worry about.

The 0.5% is calculated from real walk around time feeling great.
We therefore know the number you're looking for. No need for further concern.

SusanC10

Have they started actually vaccinating Ages 49-45 as opposed to registering?
Personally, I don't know anyone in this Group who has got it (apart from very/high risk or HCW). Youngest friend who has got it is 51 in Dublin.