Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117786609#Comment_117786609

I'd say the vaccines are even more effective than that. Probably boosts the immune system so much that many people don't even get infected after being exposed to the virus (otherwise we would already heading back up to 8000 cases a day). Those that 'do' get it are in a much better position to fight it off.

robinbird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117785886#Comment_117785886

Thanks very much for finding that old post Bubbaclaus. Let's examine now my projections of July 17th and see how close they were.

On that date I projected 250,000 Janssen would be given. They gave out 230,000 so not that far off.

I projected that 300,000 first mRNA doses were left to be given in July based on estimate of 80% take up by 18-29 cohort. Take up to date is 83% The actual number given from July 18th to the end of month was 310,000

I projected that there were 650,000 second mRNA doses left to be given. Since July 18th to date according to the HSE dashboard approx 630,000 mRNA second doses have been given.

I also predicted to widespread scorn that over 18 first doses would be largely completed by the end of the month. They were.

Bear in mind that on July 17th the vaccination program was for over 18s only and projections were on that basis. Registration for 16 -17 year olds opened on July 27th and 12-15s over a week ago.

lucernarian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117786993#Comment_117786993

To be fair you did provide numbers that have closely matched what's happened so far. That should be acknowledged more.

Bubbaclaus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117786993#Comment_117786993

Basically, your figures were miles off at the time, as many pointed out, and now can be shown with the facts.

Over 300k first doses done in last 21 days also that will be needing a second dose still.

Nevermind all the other people still getting first doses daily.

Ages 12-17 do not account for the massive discrepancy between your figures and what ultimately happened in reality.

robinbird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117787029#Comment_117787029

The facts have shown my figures and projections were accurate. The vaccination program on July 17th was over 18s.

My projections on July 17th for over 18 first doses and second doses have largely been correct .

Instead of basing your bluster on unsubstantiated claims base them instead on the official HSE figures as I am doing.

I projected on 17th July 300k first doses left in July. The figures show 310k were administered

I projected on 17th July 650k second doses. 630k have been administered

225k first doses have been done in August. The figures are on the HSE dashboard if you care to look. Your claim of 300k is false.

And these can be accounted for largely by 12-15s and 16-17s. A certain number of over 18 stragglers was expected.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117786855#Comment_117786855

Look at Israel.

Cases are vertical currently.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789436#Comment_117789436

Isn't there talk though of waning effectiveness with Pfizer and the Delta variant? They were vaccinating the population as far back as autumn 2020, well over nine months ago.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789462#Comment_117789462

They all wane at various degrees.

Your body naturally lets antibodies fall as it does'nt feel there is an immediate threat.

It does remember the virus and can reproduce antibodies quickly when infected, hence mild infections.

At this moment in time as an individual most people will have to accept they will very likely be infected in the next 12 months.

Furze99

Be interesting to see if there's any Covid fallout from Croke Park today. 40,000 fans, asked to wear masks - obvious as game went on that a minority, perhaps only 20% were complying. Some people spaced out, others all on top of each other. So assuming most were vaccinated partially or fully, will there be a spike in Cork & Limerick in days to come. And if there is, will it be reported?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117786609#Comment_117786609

I think you'll likely be correct. That's the only way you can account for the high number of cases (and more than likely many do not report illness) and the claimed vaccination figures. The lingering question is, what if any will be long terms side effects of both Covid and/or any vaccines. Suspect issues round this will linger for many years to come.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789593#Comment_117789593

The better your metabolic system is, the better you can shake off covid and the vaccines.

Looking after your body has never been more important before you get infected and afterwards.

The USA and India as a medical profession have been much more proactive than in europe(ireland).

The county I live in, there is a GP who is always commenting on covid on her twitter page and local/national press.

She has been on all the current affair tv programmes raising her profile using covid, stay at home etc.

I saw on her twitter page after Christmas when the county was ablaze with covid cases.

She was asking her twitter friends how would you treat patients at home before/if they end up in hospital?

And she is one of the better GP's in the country, she was at least asking the question.

After 12 months of covid there is zero in this space.

Other than parecetemol and rest per hse.

Parecetemol may now be the wrong medication to take.

GP's/HSE need to be more proactive with regards to living with the consequences of covid/long covid.

Rather do nothing than help sick patients.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789576#Comment_117789576

There won't be a spike in cases from CP, there possibly (maybe even likely) will be from people socialising before, during and after the game.

airy fairy

Are there any stats of those in hospital? Icu?

Are they in hospital or icu because of Covid or happen to be in there with an illness eg heart attack and have tested positive with Covid as an extra but not contributing to the ICU admission?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789462#Comment_117789462

Second doses began around the middle of January and got to a high level around the middle of March. So 5-7 months for fully vaccinated.

A study in Israel in June/July found 39% efficacy at preventing infection/transmission (against Delta), so that would have been 3/4-5/6 months out. It's possibly lower now, boosters notwithstanding.

robinbird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117789462#Comment_117789462

Theory is that efficacy begins to wane from three months after second jab for mRNA vaccine and that this explains why cases are rising in highly vaccinated countries like Ireland.. US will be giving third jab from eight months after second. Highly vaccinated Israel has already begun giving third jab in hope that it will slow skyrocketing cases. Ireland will begin administering third jabs from September.

Of course this is not an issue in countries with very low vaccine. uptake like Romania, Slovakia, Latvia Estonia etc as cases gave fallen dramatically in these states

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117791366#Comment_117791366

On 11/05/21 Ireland had 515,358 people fully vaccinated, last Saturday it was 3,224,963 fully vaccinated. So almost 85% of fully vaccinated people in Ireland are within three months of their second jab. Rising cases in Ireland doesn't (yet) support the vaccine waning theory, particularly given Ireland is in the middle of a wave of a new more transmissible variant.

robinbird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117791438#Comment_117791438

Agreed. Ireland's vaccine rollout was significantly slower than other countries like Israel, US and UK so there would seem to be little justification for a third jab campaign from September. And yet it seems that is what's planned. Assume they will start with over 70s that received first two jabs in March/April.

Micky 32

I haven’t posted much here lately and i doubt i will be posting much here in the future.

This weekend has really felt closer to normality than ever. It has really done wonders for the mental health. I travelled to Scotland for the weekend. Drove to Belfast and caught the ferry. There’s no question about it. These vaccines are a miracle. They work plain and simple. It’s the first time i have travelled outside the country since this disgusting virus reared it’s ugly head.

Of course we’ll get the usual suspects on here “ but but but nothing was stopping you going through Belfast even if you weren’t vaccinated blah blah” but for me it’s not as simple as that.

The problematic thing was i have quite a few ederly people in my circle. Some have heart conditions etc so i just couldn’t chance taking off and bringing back the virus as a souvenir.

All the people i know are now fully vaxxed including myself so it gave me the confidence to go and travel again. I’ll be heading to France in a couple of weeks.

There’s no question that the vaccines have given us huge hope.

charlie_says

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117781793#Comment_117781793

Well it's up to her to consent. She was talking about the translplats last year when there was no vaccine, I don't know the specific numbers but many went ahead. Her fear is the illness after the injection in an already sick child and now the emerging issues with kidneys after the injection.

Perhaps her logic is that the hospital is a controlled environment where transmission of covid is low as all the staff are vaccinated?

is_that_so

UK considering mini-boosters as a possible way to get vaccines out to the rest of the world faster.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/22/uk-scientists-look-at-halving-boosters-to-save-vaccine-for-rest-of-the-world

Will this stop the purveyors of misinformation and their experimental schtick? Not likely

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0823/1242396-pfizer/

seamus

Of course it won't. Every piece of evidence that destroys one piece of rubbish spawns two new pieces of rubbish.

The excuse now will be that the FDA approval was rushed or forced or they'll just do a quick pivot and say, "The FDA approved Pandemrix despite knowing the narcolepsy risk and therefore it can't be trusted".

It's never about the facts with these nutjobs. They will use the FDA's approval or non-approval as an argument against the vaccine.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117793486#Comment_117793486

It didn't take long!

https://twitter.com/LisPower1/status/1429808635086057473

timmyntc

It is unprecedented speed for vaccine approval - theres no denying that.

Trials are not scheduled to finish until 2023 either! However FDA approval may have some implications for the previous indemnities granted to Pfizer, Moderna etc - or the federal govts liability. Be interesting to see when the first legal actions comes, and what the results are.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117793542#Comment_117793542

It’s standard to continue trials past approval. In fact it’s desirable as you can never have too much information

Jessie Jackson and his wife (fully vaccinated) are both hospitalised with covid.

Were fecked.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117793593#Comment_117793593

I suspect both of them might have underlying health conditions or it might simply be their age (Jackson is nearly 80). It's not that the vaccines stop you getting sick with Covid, but that they mostly reduce the severity of the symptoms.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117793611#Comment_117793611

Of course they have underlying conditions, they are 80.

They are in the twilight of their years, the vaccines may well have saved their lives.

Thats not how some americans will see it though.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117793593#Comment_117793593

A pair of almost 80 year olds with serious pre existing conditions of course represents the population as a whole

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117793633#Comment_117793633

People dont see like it like that with celebrities, especially in USA.

This says to many folk in america whats the point of a vaccine if you can still end up in the hospital.

Better to stick with ivermectin.