Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

astrofool

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Right now we have no data to know what the situation actually is. No tweets either so wondering has vaccine rate reduced? It is right that people ask questions

The last drop of data we got on May 23rd showed we are still on track with our vaccine usage, hopefully the daily updates will start again soon, but the difference to other countries could only be a few % which again means we are in a good place because demand is so high and we're just about to cross into the age groups with the largest number of people, if we can keep up the high demand, we'll be in a better position than most EU countries.

astrofool

xboxdad wrote: »

That's extremely worrying if true. Until this is busted, we need to treat all age groups as high risk - especially children - in my view.

I don't think it would be wise to try and treat everyone as equally high risk because a US doctor thinks that everyone who caught COVID will need a lung transplant in the future. I could imagine a scenario where a very small % of people might need this, but I haven't seen any evidence pointing to this. The average smoker or someone who caught pneumonia in the past will probably have worse lungs than people who caught COVID and didn't experience any symptoms.

robinbird

astrofool wrote: »

the difference to other countries could only be a few % which again means we are in a good place .

If we are are doing a good job then we shouldn't be a few percentage points behind other EU countries with the same per capita deliveries.

The last time storage stats were released on 11th May we had 650,000 vaccines in storage. Given that we reduced vaccinations by about 40,000 this week over previous week would not be surprised if the number being held back in storage was still above 500,000. Given we are now in a race with reopening we should be administering all shots we get as soon as we get them. No doubt we will get there in the end but we are not doing an amazing job.

Rebelbrowser

[QUOTE=robinbird;117305440
Germany
J&J vaccine available for anyone that wants it.
Vaccine booking open for all over 18s from June [/QUOTE]

I have a friend in Berlin who points out that whilst in principle the vaccine is open to anyone older than 18, it's impossible to get appointments. It's a complete free for all and a mess as he describes it. Give me our approach, flawed as it is, any day.

Happydays2020

robinbird wrote: »

If we are are doing a good job then we shouldn't be a few percentage points behind other EU countries with the same per capita deliveries.

The last time storage stats were released on 11th May we had 650,000 vaccines in storage. Given that we reduced vaccinations by about 40,000 this week over previous week would not be surprised if the number being held back in storage was still above 500,000. Given we are now in a race with reopening we should be administering all shots we get as soon as we get them. No doubt we will get there in the end but we are not doing an amazing job.

Have our vaccination numbers gone down? I just have a sense that the pace has dropped. Mentions of supply issues etc …

is_that_so

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Have our vaccination numbers gone down? I just have a sense that the pace has dropped. Mentions of supply issues etc …

Latest HSE/Paul Reid figures claim we are at or above 300K a week. The aim in June is for 450K a week. That may not be met if supplies are an issue.

eternalblame

What groups or cohorts have now received their second dose of vaccine in Ireland and can be said to be 'fully vaccinated' ?

robinbird

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Have our vaccination numbers gone down? I just have a sense that the pace has dropped. Mentions of supply issues etc …

Yes. Paul Reid said weekly vaccinations would be down by at least 30,000 this week. Probably more. Possibly why there were shutting MVCs for a few days.
Means that quite likely we administered less than were delivered last week.

Very easy means to counter my argument. Release the storage stats.

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I have a friend in Berlin who points out that whilst in principle the vaccine is open to anyone older than 18, it's impossible to get appointments. It's a complete free for all and a mess as he describes it. Give me our approach, flawed as it is, any day.

Well. Our approach to an extent is GPs doing referrals on a nod nod wink wink basis. We all know young healthy people who have gotten calls from GP or from friends offering them "spares" And there is also increasing evidence that "high risk" outside of age and weight is not "high risk"
Even though we are up to about 600,000 high risk by now.

Offering vaccines based on registration even if it was a lottery would be fairer.

is_that_so

eternalblame wrote: »

What groups or cohorts have now received their second dose of vaccine in Ireland and can be said to be 'fully vaccinated' ?

All over 70s, most of Group 4, any J&J recipients over 50 and some of Group 2. A lot of that group will be done over the next 3-4 weeks with the 60-69 soon after.

Bubbaclaus

robinbird wrote: »

Northern Ireland
Vaccine booking open for all over 18s

Germany
J&J vaccine available for anyone that wants it.
Vaccine booking open for all over 18s from June 7th

France
Vaccine available to all over 18s.

US
California announces $116millionin incentives to encourage people to get vaccine

Ireland
Outrage as young people start to socialize outside.
Restaurants, pubs remain closed.
Govt refuse to release data on number of vaccines held in storage.
Vaccine portal to open sometime soon of over 40s
MVCs close for a few days to give staff a break.


Everybody: Isn't Ireland doing an amazing job with the vaccine rollout.

Not sure why you think Germany and France taking a first come first served free for all approach to vaccines is preferable to a risk based age based rollout.

And we don't need incentives like the US given we have one of the lowest vaccine hesitancies in the world.

robinbird

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Not sure why you think Germany and France taking a first come first served free for all approach to vaccines is preferable to a risk based age based rollout.

No argument that a rollout for over 60s and obese first is preferable.

However after that other EU countries have opened vaccinations to all adults whereas ours is a slower rollout, higher number of doses held back in storage and a hybrid of GPs deciding which favoured patients should get it in conjunction with much slower age based rollout. We are on over 45s rather than over 18s in these countries.
Even from the point of view of slowing the virus spread you could argue that it would be more effective to give it offer people that socialise now rather than the hypochondriacs that are on doctor's lists. Would question whether the irish way is the best way.

Midland fisherman

Anthony Staines has said the variants may be resistant to vaccines. It’s not looking good.

Apogee

Reid: 2.7m doses administered

Happydays2020

Midland fisherman wrote: »

Anthony Staines has said the variants may be resistant to vaccines. It’s not looking good.

Not looking good for him and interviews more like.

Deeper Blue

Midland fisherman wrote: »

Anthony Staines has said the variants may be resistant to vaccines. It’s not looking good.

Staines and his ilk have been saying that for a year. Guess what? The vaccines work for all variants

Saying "it's not looking good" is unsubstantiated fearmongering rubbish

eoinbn

Strazdas wrote: »

I would guess late June or some time in July.

Can people stop with the misinformation?
If they continue with the current strategy then it is as clear as day that people in their early 20s will not be vaccinated in June - early August is more likely. If they open the vaccines to everyone once we go under 40 then all bets are off as it becomes a lottery.

SleetAndSnow

eoinbn wrote: »

Can people stop with the misinformation?
If they continue with the current strategy then it is as clear as day that people in their early 20s will not be vaccinated in June - early August is more likely. If they open the vaccines to everyone once we go under 40 then all bets are off as it becomes a lottery.

Once we can get back onto a college campus, it'll be fine. If they leave it too late so that the majority of people in our age bracket aren't vaccinated so a college campus would be a super spreader, it would be a disaster. Cannot do another semester of at home learning, while paying full fees for the privilege of such.

Turtwig

Midland fisherman wrote: »

Anthony Staines has said the variants may be resistant to vaccines. It’s not looking good.

He's not wrong. Compared to the wildtype the vaccines don't work as well. They do still work! They're still very effective and there's nothing yet to suggest they fail at preventing severe illness. Staines knows this. He's gotta. Yet he keeps saying it in a way that someone could easily misunderstand as meaning the vaccine is useless.

Loss of efficacy is a problem. It means herd immunity requires a higher threshold - and depending on how high that threshold becomes things could get problematic.

That said, If Staines isn't careful he'll actually make it a self fulfilling prophecy whereby we can't make herd immunity because enough people think the vaccine wouldn't work for them.

Bubbaclaus

robinbird wrote: »

No argument that a rollout for over 60s and obese first is preferable.

However after that other EU countries have opened vaccinations to all adults whereas ours is a slower rollout, higher number of doses held back in storage and a hybrid of GPs deciding which favoured patients should get it in conjunction with much slower age based rollout. We are on over 45s rather than over 18s in these countries.
Even from the point of view of slowing the virus spread you could argue that it would be more effective to give it offer people that socialise now rather than the hypochondriacs that are on doctor's lists. Would question whether the irish way is the best way.

Sorry, but our rollout isn't slower. Run the numbers on the below:

Apogee wrote: »

Reid: 2.7m doses administered

Rebelbrowser

Did Paul Reid cast any further light on when 40-44 portal opens. A specific day would be nice at this stage.

stephenjmcd

eoinbn wrote: »

Can people stop with the misinformation?
If they continue with the current strategy then it is as clear as day that people in their early 20s will not be vaccinated in June - early August is more likely. If they open the vaccines to everyone once we go under 40 then all bets are off as it becomes a lottery.

People are allowed to estimate as much as you are as to when they might be able to register and get vaccinated. Just because their opinion differs to yours doesn't mean its misinformation. All people have is their opinion, there's no definitive timeline but based on delvieries and rate of vaccination people can have a good guess.

They may end up being wrong, they could be right but having an opinion that differs from yours when there's nothing concrete isn't misinformation it's called having an opinion, something we all have.

Personally being in the 25-29 age group I'd currently expect to register late June for vaccine mid July

robinbird

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Sorry, but our rollout isn't slower. Run the numbers on the below:

Apogee wrote: »

Reid: 2.7m doses administered

Germany 52 million doses delivered. 700,000 a day at the moment.
Absolute figures mean little. In terms of larger amounts we hold back in storage and delivery capacity we are slower. And our system of nod nod wink wink referrals through GPs is different and more cumbersome.

eoinbn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

People are allowed to estimate as much as you are as to when they might be able to register and get vaccinated. Just because their opinion differs to yours doesn't mean its misinformation. All people have is their opinion, there's no definitive timeline but based on delvieries and rate of vaccination people can have a good guess.

They may end up being wrong, they could be right but having an opinion that differs from yours when there's nothing concrete isn't misinformation it's called having an opinion, something we all have.

Personally being in the 25-29 age group I'd currently expect to register late June for vaccine mid July

It isn't about opinions, it is about maths. June is fantasy land.

iamwhoiam

robinbird wrote: »

Germany 52 million doses delivered. 700,000 a day at the moment.
Absolute figures mean little. In terms of larger amounts we hold back in storage and delivery capacity we are slower. And our system of nod nod wink wink referrals through GPs is different and more cumbersome.

I personally know of a 71 year old in Berlin who is due his first dose on June the 10 th

Bubbaclaus

robinbird wrote: »

Germany 52 million doses delivered. 700,000 a day at the moment.
Absolute figures mean little. In terms of larger amounts we hold back in storage and delivery capacity we are slower. And our system of nod nod wink wink referrals through GPs is different and more cumbersome.

Um...you do realise Germany has a slightly larger population than Ireland? Obviously larger countries will have more absolute total done. Look at the per capita figures for comparisons. Ireland is in no way behind the rest of Europe.

Passing 2.7 million doses is about 55 doses per 100, perfectly in line with our EU neighbours.

Sleeper12

eternalblame wrote:

What groups or cohorts have now received their second dose of vaccine in Ireland and can be said to be 'fully vaccinated' ?

I would imagine almost every one, if not all, over 80 is fully done. Plenty of 70s,60s and 50's only have first vaccine

Wolf359f

robinbird wrote: »

Germany 52 million doses delivered. 700,000 a day at the moment.
Absolute figures mean little. In terms of larger amounts we hold back in storage and delivery capacity we are slower. And our system of nod nod wink wink referrals through GPs is different and more cumbersome.

Based on your figures, Germany are doing 0.84% of their population a day. Going by last estimate of doing 300k this week, were doing 0.87% population a day. But Germany is going faster? I've heard of picking stats to suite a viewpoint, but there's no ****ing way a country as small as Ireland could vaccinated 700k (14% population) a day. So if you're going to compare countries at least do it as a % population ffs.

Bubbaclaus

Wolf359f wrote: »

Based on your figures, Germany are doing 0.84% of their population a day. Going by last estimate of doing 300k this week, were doing 0.87% population a day. But Germany is going faster? I've heard of picking stats to suite a viewpoint, but there's no ****ing way a country as small as Ireland could vaccinated 700k (14% population) a day. So if you're going to compare countries at least do it as a % population ffs.

They are clearly doing it deliberately.

Wolf359f

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

They are clearly doing it deliberately.

He keeps getting called out on it but ignores it and keeps posting misleading figures.

astrofool

robinbird wrote: »

If we are are doing a good job then we shouldn't be a few percentage points behind other EU countries with the same per capita deliveries.

I didn't say we were behind, I guessed that if the numbers were updated we would be within a couple of percentage points of everybody else, we don't have the latest data so we don't know, we do have data from 23rd May which shows us right on track, there's no reason to think we have regressed since then as we never have before.