Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

leahyl

giveitholly wrote: »

Know a couple of 43 year olds getting their first jab tomorrow

A friend of mine is 42 and got her first jab yesterday

leahyl

VinLieger wrote: »

So will 30-39 be getting only MRNA? Or will we be getting J&J and Aztrazeneca?

MRNA

Cork2021

leahyl wrote: »

A friend of mine is 42 and got her first jab yesterday

Work colleague 41 getting first jab tomorrow at PÚC

Lumen

Van.Bosch wrote: »

201,000 45-49 year olds have registered

That's not good. There are 358.5k in that age group according to the CSO.

That's just 56% registered.

PhoenixParker

Lumen wrote: »

That's not good. There are 358.5k in that age group according to the CSO.

That's just 56% registered.

There’d be a sizeable chunk done as healthcare workers/cohort 4 as well.

crossman47

Documentary on RTE now suggests the on line system scheduling a person every five minutes was too quick and probably led to some of the queues we've seen.

Lumen

PhoenixParker wrote: »

There’d be a sizeable chunk done as healthcare workers/cohort 4 as well.

True, but there are only about 530k of those. If they're split evenly across 25-65 (2.6m) it knocks 66k off, bringing registration rate up to 75%.

What are the other 25% waiting for?

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

That's not good. There are 358.5k in that age group according to the CSO.

That's just 56% registered.

A more reliable agregated to date count by far is the amount of 1st doses given versus the last census/estimated number of adults with pps numbers
The hse would surely have that possible data
Its probably what they're pulling the data from
It might mean things are better too as a proportion of the pps numbers are living abroad

RavenBea17b

RavenBea17b wrote: »

What percentage of cases over the last four five weeks have been the Indian/ Kappa variant. It has been increasing from what I read.

Its a tiny minority here
Perhaps I should have said very unlikely instead of won't

Lumen

Marine Layer wrote: »

A more reliable agregated to date count by far is the amount of 1st doses given versus the last census/estimated number of adults with pps numbers
The hse would surely have that possible data
Its probably what they're pulling the data from
It might mean things are better too as a proportion of the pps numbers are living abroad

Why do you think the "last census/estimated number of adults with pps numbers" is more accurate than the the April 2020 CSO estimates?

I posted the table here, for reference.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=117276494&postcount=544

Sourced from: https://data.cso.ie/product/PME

Tenger

is_that_so wrote: »

Delighted to hear but baffled that people are so surprised it's going very well. This is an organisation that co-ordinated and delivered 1.4m flu' jabs last year. It may have lots of other problems but this they do very well and without fuss every year. This likely success was flagged in January and even before that, when there was no programme in sight.

I think the issue was that as we are so tied into the UK and US media sphere we were seeing how fast they were going with their rollout (because of their dire situation in Oct/Nov last year) Relatively speaking our rollout looked lackluster and glacial.
But it was always going to be a marathon rather than a sprint.

I'm from a Border family and have family in both jurisdictions. My sister in N.I. (mid 50s) got her 1st jab a week after my parents (70s) back in late March. However my parents are now fully vaxxed, and my other 2 sisters are getting their 2nd jab this week. The sister in the North only got her 2nd jab last week.
So it took 3 months but we are almost caught up to the UK.

fun loving criminal

What day will the registration start for 30-39 year old group?

Qrt

fun loving criminal wrote: »

What day will the registration start for 30-39 year old group?

Didn’t see anything concrete, I’d say prepare yourself for Friday. Worst case scenario.

Lumen

Tenger wrote: »

So it took 3 months but we are almost caught up to the UK.

We haven't really. The UK have administered over 1 dose per capita and we're around 0.6.

I'm not trying to be negative but those are the facts.

lachin

I rang to change my appt this week as it was 1.5hrs away from where I live. But I'm thinking now the journey might be worth it, its scheduled for Saturday, could I still turn up with text?

Pauliedragon

fun loving criminal wrote: »

What day will the registration start for 30-39 year old group?

Monday according to the mirror.

VinLieger

Lumen wrote: »

True, but there are only about 530k of those. If they're split evenly across 25-65 (2.6m) it knocks 66k off, bringing registration rate up to 75%.

What are the other 25% waiting for?

People are ignorant and lazy.

I still know friends in the 30-40 age bracket who believe they won't be due a vaccine till September at the earliest, I don't know how they are this disconnected from the news but they are. They still scoff and quote months old info when I tell them we will be getting them before the end of June.

Polar101

VinLieger wrote: »

They still scoff and quote months old info when I tell them we will be getting them before the end of June.

Yes exactly. When I told a colleague I got vaccinated, he asked if I have underlying conditions - yes I do, they're called "born in the 70's".

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

Why do you think the "last census/estimated number of adults with pps numbers" is more accurate than the the April 2020 CSO estimates?

I posted the table here, for reference.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=117276494&postcount=544

Sourced from: https://data.cso.ie/product/PME

The slash is an or
Fact is Ireland is not so far behind the UK,that at worst the time difference between herd immunity being reached in both jurisdictions will be trivial and pointless complaining about
Boris boasted that greed and capitalism was behind the UK's success
Its turning out he needn't have outed himself on that

Lumen

Marine Layer wrote: »

The slash is an or
Fact is Ireland is not so far behind the UK,that at worst the time difference between herd immunity being reached in both jurisdictions will be trivial and pointless complaining about
Boris boasted that greed and capitalism was behind the UK's success
Its turning out he needn't have outed himself on that

OK. This is possibly the sanest thread in this forum, but it does sometimes verge towards campaigning from one side or another. That gets in the way of sensible debate and analysis.

I am not interested in complaining about or puffing up our vaccination programme. I am only interested in the earliest possible exit from this year-long crisis. Not that opinions here count for anything, but the debate interests me.

From that perspective, international comparisons are critically important. Without them we can only inch forwards with "an abundance of caution". I don't want that, I want us to move as fast as possible. The country is haemorrhaging money, we have hundreds of thousands of people out of work.

Why do we think it is safe to re-open indoor hospitality with only two-thirds the vaccine doses administered compared to the UK? Because our vaccines are better? Because we don't have much Indian variant seeding?

I'm not calling for our re-opening to be slowed. Even if I did believe that, this would the wrong thread for it.

I just want to contribute to some clear analysis of the facts, without any kind of national pride or "clap for the healthcare workers" type nonsense polluting it. This is a megathread, and I don't object to people using it to publish their positivity, but I do object to people calling me out for being negative by stating clear facts (like that we are nowhere near parity with the UK in terms of vaccination rollout or population immunity) or being pedantic by objecting to conflation of population immunity and adult population immunity.

xboxdad

Lumen wrote: »

Why do we think it is safe to re-open indoor hospitality with only two-thirds the vaccine doses administered compared to the UK? Because our vaccines are better? Because we don't have much Indian variant seeding?

I don't understand this part either.
Sounds like we decided that once mortality rates are down, we can afford a new wave amongst the large number of unvaccinated ppl as they're clearly not vulnerable based on stats now.
...which scares me for a couple of reasons, one being the unknown effects of "long covid" in asymptomatic ppl. - most of which might be children who we need to protect the most.

I was hoping we'd do it in the safer order. E.g. get 60+ % vaccinated with 2 doses, wait the required time for immunity to form, then start reopening based on herd immunity.
I believe Israel did it like this? If I'm not mistaken.

Lumen

xboxdad wrote: »

I don't understand this part either.
Sounds like we decided that once mortality rates are down, we can afford a new wave amongst the large number of unvaccinated ppl as they're clearly not vulnerable based on stats now.

I don't think there is any evidence of this thinking amongst public health or government. I am bothered that our re-opening strategy is completely ad-hoc and unplanned, but that's for another thread.

I would prefer that the communication around the vaccination programme and re-opening was less ambiguous and more joined up. People are surely fed up with phrases like "over the next number of of weeks" and "this summer".

I thought the PrimeTime analysis was good, despite it being savaged on here. It would be nice to see elements of that type of analysis clearly presented by the government, rather than waffle and spin.

People need to understand that for us to enjoy a free, safe, open economy we need everyone who can be vaccinated to be vaccinated.

I am a bit concerned that early reports of strong vaccination take up amongst older groups have sown a bit of complacency. People seem to think the French are uniquely mental when it comes to vaccine hesitancy/lethargy.

We may come to regret not implementing some kind of time-limited domestic covid pass like Israel has done (and some other EU countries are doing).

JRant

xboxdad wrote: »

I don't understand this part either.
Sounds like we decided that once mortality rates are down, we can afford a new wave amongst the large number of unvaccinated ppl as they're clearly not vulnerable based on stats now.
...which scares me for a couple of reasons, one being the unknown effects of "long covid" in asymptomatic ppl. - most of which might be children who we need to protect the most.

I was hoping we'd do it in the safer order. E.g. get 60+ % vaccinated with 2 doses, wait the required time for immunity to form, then start reopening based on herd immunity.
I believe Israel did it like this? If I'm not mistaken.

That level of vaccination won't be reached for another couple of months though. Keeping severe restrictions in place till August would be complete lunacy.

ginoginelli

Opening indoor dining next month as all the makings of a catastrophy. I'm basically in favours of anything outdoors at this stage. But indoor dining with mostly unvaccinated punters - with no health cert implemented - is madness.

I'd prefer to see the goverment increase supports for that industry until we get a sufficient amount vaccinated. With many other industries open the common sense approach would be to decrease support in those industries and funnel it into the ones not open.

The writing is in the wall with what's happening in the uk. If we do open, and get another wave, it's going to be another one of those moments like christmas were we look back in hindsight and say 'what the hell were we thinking'.

For the sake of a month or so, it's not worth the risk.

JRant

ginoginelli wrote: »

Opening indoor dining next month as all the makings of a catastrophy. I'm basically in favours of anything outdoors at this stage. But indoor dining with mostly unvaccinated punters - with no health cert implemented - is madness.

I'd prefer to see the goverment increase supports for that industry until we get a sufficient amount vaccinated. With many other industries open the common sense approach would be to decrease support in those industries and funnel it into the ones not open.

The writing is in the wall with what's happening in the uk. If we do open, and get another wave, it's going to be another one of those moments like christmas were we look back in hindsight and say 'what the hell were we thinking'.

For the sake of a month or so, it's not worth the risk.

There are many things you can criticize this government for but being overly optimistic is not one of them. Indoor dining is still a month away and lots more jabs will be given out between now and then. Comparing opening up in July with 4 million doses administered versus Christmas is a false equivalence.

ddarcy

ginoginelli wrote: »

Opening indoor dining next month as all the makings of a catastrophy. I'm basically in favours of anything outdoors at this stage. But indoor dining with mostly unvaccinated punters - with no health cert implemented - is madness.

I'd prefer to see the goverment increase supports for that industry until we get a sufficient amount vaccinated. With many other industries open the common sense approach would be to decrease support in those industries and funnel it into the ones not open.

The writing is in the wall with what's happening in the uk. If we do open, and get another wave, it's going to be another one of those moments like christmas were we look back in hindsight and say 'what the hell were we thinking'.

For the sake of a month or so, it's not worth the risk.

Well the zero Covid zealots seem to be out in force today.

Over 55% currently have one dose offering at minimum 60% efficacy. When indoor dining opens up we should be closer to 70% if not getting very close to the 80 % target by then. Fully vaccinated should be above 40%.

The US has a 14 day average of 50 cases per 100k cases. They are currently sitting on 43% fully vaccinated and 52% with at least one dose. So quite frankly we should be opening up faster than we are as they are fully open, no masks, no social distancing, etc. And parts of the US have been like this since the start.

xboxdad

JRant wrote: »

That level of vaccination won't be reached for another couple of months though. Keeping severe restrictions in place till August would be complete lunacy.

I assume you mean in terms of damage to economy.
Yes, most likely. That's how all decisions will do huge harm no matter which way we go.
For me health considerations are of higher priority, but I can see how more damage to the economy is equally bad in the long run.
However, if we damage health on a large scale, our economy might get damaged too in the end.
So lunacy both ways maybe.

Skygord

ddarcy wrote: »

Over 55% currently have one dose offering at minimum 60% efficacy.

As I understand it Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca are at about 30% against the delta variant after one dose.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pfizer-jab-produces-less-antibodies-against-delta-variant-lancet-121060400516_1.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849

ahbell

Skygord wrote: »

As I understand it Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca are at about 30% against the delta variant after one dose.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pfizer-jab-produces-less-antibodies-against-delta-variant-lancet-121060400516_1.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849

IIRC it's 30% against infection, but much much higher protection against hospitalisation/death

Micky 32

Skygord wrote: »

As I understand it Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca are at about 30% against the delta variant after one dose.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pfizer-jab-produces-less-antibodies-against-delta-variant-lancet-121060400516_1.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849

That’s true but it seems one dose reduces your chance of hospitisation by circa 70 %, lets make sure we lay all facts on the table, eh?