Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

AdamD

ginoginelli wrote: »

Opening indoor dining next month as all the makings of a catastrophy. I'm basically in favours of anything outdoors at this stage. But indoor dining with mostly unvaccinated punters - with no health cert implemented - is madness.

I'd prefer to see the goverment increase supports for that industry until we get a sufficient amount vaccinated. With many other industries open the common sense approach would be to decrease support in those industries and funnel it into the ones not open.

The writing is in the wall with what's happening in the uk. If we do open, and get another wave, it's going to be another one of those moments like christmas were we look back in hindsight and say 'what the hell were we thinking'.

For the sake of a month or so, it's not worth the risk.

That line has long since run out of road. There is a massive cost to every 'just another month to be safe'.

average_runner

Lumen wrote: »

We haven't really. The UK have administered over 1 dose per capita and we're around 0.6.

I'm not trying to be negative but those are the facts.

We kinda have. Friend in the Uk is 51 and getting his second dose this month.
Neighbour 50 beside us will get his second in two weeks.


We are catching up on the second doses because we don't have the big wait.




Got my first pfizer yesterday and i will be fully vaccinated before a lot of 44 year olds in the Uk.

kg703

corkie wrote: »

^^^

I am buzzing it's 30+

xboxdad

AdamD wrote: »

That line has long since run out of road. There is a massive cost to every 'just another month to be safe'.

I personally understand that.
...but if reopening at this stage causes another wave that causes another lockdown?
Did we save any money/opportunity then?

Chris_5339762

I think personally that if there is another lockdown, it will be ignored completely by the lions share of people.

lbj666

Skygord wrote: »

As I understand it Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca are at about 30% against the delta variant after one dose.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pfizer-jab-produces-less-antibodies-against-delta-variant-lancet-121060400516_1.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849

While there seems to be a bit of a match in this case, reduction in antibody levels do not mean a proportional reduction in efficacy.

The was a 5 time drop in antibodies with pfizer and the SA variant and efficacy was reduced by what 10% or something.


also worth noting given this delta/gamma variant panic thats in the UK

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1402879976119152641

ddarcy

kg703 wrote: »

I am buzzing it's 30+

From an uptake point of view I’m not quite buzzing. I never believed the polls on the uptake (no country would have 90% uptake) and I think we are starting to see, as every other country has seen, a lack of uptake when you start hitting the 40s and massively increasing down through the 30s and 20s age groups. Could be wrong, but this seems to have stated here as well too.

Lumen

average_runner wrote: »

We kinda have. Friend in the Uk is 51 and getting his second dose this month.
Neighbour 50 beside us will get his second in two weeks.

We are catching up on the second doses because we don't have the big wait.

Got my first pfizer yesterday and i will be fully vaccinated before a lot of 44 year olds in the Uk.

But they are way ahead on first doses, 60% to our low-40s% on a whole-population basis. Those doses confer a large amount of herd immunity.

I can't quite be bothered to model the effects taking into account different vaccines, variants and so on. It would be nice if our public health people did, and published it, since that's their job.

stephenjmcd

Lumen wrote: »

But they are way ahead on first doses, 60% to our low-40s%. Those doses confer a large amount of herd immunity.

I can't quite be bothered to model the effects taking into account different vaccines, variants and so on. It would be nice if our public health people did, and published it, since that's their job.

Might want to check that number.

As of 3rd June we were at 53% dose one.

Update should be due today at the HSE briefing

Lumen

lbj666 wrote: »

also worth noting given this delta/gamma variant panic thats in the UK

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1402879976119152641

I'm not sure I trust Fraser Nelson or The Spectator on this subject. I'd want to fact check that Tweet.

The FT coverage seems neutral and more reliable.

Lumen

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Might want to check that number.

As of 3rd June we were at 53% dose one.

Update should be due today at the HSE briefing

I'm using total population figures, not % adults or over 16s or whatever. Will edit to be explicit.

VG31

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

I think personally that if there is another lockdown, it will be ignored completely by the lions share of people.

If we locked down again it would purely be based on case numbers, since the chance of hospitalisations rising to problematic levels is very low.

If the virus had arrived in its current form (i.e. the significantly alleviated by vaccines virus we have now) there is ZERO chance we would have locked down. In fact I doubt there would have been any restrictions at all. Case numbers even considering possible long covid, a few manageable hospitalisations and some rare deaths would not have been sufficient to consider a lockdown.

Even considering a lockdown based on case numbers is absolute insanity IMO. Yes we don't want virus levels to get out of control, but a another lockdown? No way.

xboxdad

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

I think personally that if there is another lockdown, it will be ignored completely by the lions share of people.

Very possibly.
..and it won't make the issue go away, but can make the situation escalate quickly.
That's how it would have been more feasible to extend the current lockdown until we're protected and be done with lockdowns for good. Seems to work for Israel.

The way I see it is:

The issue was created when we didn't get enough vaccines to have time to get two doses into 60% of ppl's arms + wait for immunity to form by the Summer.

From that point on there are two possible scenarios:

We conclude that another Summer is lost and we still carry out the plan, then reopen safely in the Autumn.
OR
We still go ahead with Summer reopenings without herd immunity and we get another wave.

I'm failing to see any other possible scenario.
..but I do hope you guys will be right and it's just me...

deandean

Massive queues today in Citywest vaccination centre. 45mins to park. 1hr+ in a line that zigzags all over the place.
First time I was here, the queue was about 5 minutes.

xboxdad

VG31 wrote: »

If we locked down again it would purely be based on case numbers, since the chance of hospitalisations rising to problematic levels is very low.

If the virus had arrived in its current form (i.e. the significantly alleviated by vaccines virus we have now) there is ZERO chance we would have locked down. In fact I doubt there would have been any restrictions at all. Case numbers even considering possible long covid, a few manageable hospitalisations and some rare deaths would not have been sufficient to consider a lockdown.

Even considering a lockdown based on case numbers is absolute insanity IMO. Yes we don't want virus levels to get out of control, but a another lockdown? No way.

I hope that's all right.
...I'm just not sure anyone in the world can safely conclude at this point in time that long covid is truly better in the long run than hospitalization now.
Let's hope it'll turn out very well and ppl like me will feel stupid 20 years from now.

Baggly

Mod

Please cut out discussion re: relaxation of restrictions in this thread. Disuss the vaccine and vaccinations here. Thanks.

TefalBrain

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

I think personally that if there is another lockdown, it will be ignored completely by the lions share of people.

There is no chance of people abiding by another lockdown, zero.

They asked us to lockdown to protect the vulnerable the last few times and that is now not an issue with that cohort vaccinated so they have run out of road. The vaccine was always the end game and we are now there.

Life must now go on.

Skygord

Skygord wrote: »

As I understand it Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca are at about 30% against the delta variant after one dose.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pfizer-jab-produces-less-antibodies-against-delta-variant-lancet-121060400516_1.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-first-found-in-india-is-quickly-spreading-across-globe-11623257849

The point is it produces antibodies, which is what triggers the immune response to prevent serious illness. Body produces lots of antibodies - virus enters the subject, immune system immediately goes "there's that f*cker, make tonnes more antibodies and get it the f*ck out" and the subject doesn't even get sick. Body produces a few antibodies - virus enters the subject,, immune system reacts more slowly before going "there's that f*cker, make tonnes more antibodies and get it the f*ck out" and the subject might get a mild illness

Micky 32

Deleted User wrote: »

The point is it produces antibodies, which is what triggers the immune response to prevent serious illness. Body produces lots of antibodies - virus enters the subject, immune system immediately goes "there's that f*cker, make tonnes more antibodies and get it the f*ck out" and the subject doesn't even get sick. Body produces a few antibodies - virus enters the subject,, immune system reacts more slowly before going "there's that f*cker, make tonnes more antibodies and get it the f*ck out" and the subject might get a mild illness

You just reminded me of this tweet :pac:


https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1402673834508095489?s=21

TheDoctor

Deleted User wrote: »

The point is it produces antibodies, which is what triggers the immune response to prevent serious illness. Body produces lots of antibodies - virus enters the subject, immune system immediately goes "there's that f*cker, make tonnes more antibodies and get it the f*ck out" and the subject doesn't even get sick. Body produces a few antibodies - virus enters the subject,, immune system reacts more slowly before going "there's that f*cker, make tonnes more antibodies and get it the f*ck out" and the subject might get a mild illness

A quote straight from a medical textbook.

RavenBea17b

https://twitter.com/TheGazmanRants/status/1402664954805854211

Not sure if anyone commented on this. It is an interesting thread, including discussion of the SA trial for AZ nd the often discussed flaws in the trial at the time including the definition of mild and moderate covid that is used in trials.
Professor Shane Crotty put out a great tweet about.

seamus

One million second doses will be done by the end of today;

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1402929508001398785?s=20

If we're still broadly on a 7:3 ratio, then that'll be 2.3m first doses done - 59% of the eligible population having at least one dose, 25.6% fully vaxxed.

To satisfy Lumen, that's 47% of the entire population with at least one dose.

0.67 doses per head of population.

lbj666

TheDoctor wrote: »

A quote straight from a medical textbook.

In fairness any crude explanation will do if people are confusing efficacy with antibody levels and not have any understanding about t-cells.

I have a very very basic understanding would still struggle to explain it, but still driven mad when I see people quoting articles getting it all mixed up.

Lumen

seamus wrote: »

To satisfy Lumen, that's 47% of the entire population with at least one dose.

Thanks for humouring my derangement.

I'm still hoping that 55% is the magic number.

ddarcy

seamus wrote: »

One million second doses will be done by the end of today;

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1402929508001398785?s=20

If we're still broadly on a 7:3 ratio, then that'll be 2.3m first doses done - 59% of the eligible population having at least one dose, 25.6% fully vaxxed.

To satisfy Lumen, that's 47% of the entire population with at least one dose.

0.67 doses per head of population.

I don’t think that ratio will be valid for the next few weeks. AZ is going to be given for second doses 400k+ over the next few weeks, so will skew things. The massive gap between doses means first doses will not be as high for the next few weeks (pending supplies). My 12 weeks are up in the next few days, so will see when I get offered it

RavenBea17b

RavenBea17b wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TheGazmanRants/status/1402664954805854211

Not sure if anyone commented on this. It is an interesting thread, including discussion of the SA trial for AZ nd the often discussed flaws in the trial at the time including the definition of mild and moderate covid that is used in trials.
Professor Shane Crotty put out a great tweet about.

Although the results are still strong, I think we may have to offer the over 50s that got j & j an mrna follow-up.

Supercell

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

Although the results are still strong, I think we may have to offer the over 50s that got j & j an mrna follow-up.

And the over 60's an mRNA instead of a second AZ

average_runner

Lumen wrote: »

But they are way ahead on first doses, 60% to our low-40s% on a whole-population basis. Those doses confer a large amount of herd immunity.

I can't quite be bothered to model the effects taking into account different vaccines, variants and so on. It would be nice if our public health people did, and published it, since that's their job.

Yes they are ahead on first dose, but one dose doesn't seem to be great against the Indian variant, hence their rise in cases.


Now in two weeks, alot of the 30-39 will have their first dose and 4 weeks after that they will have their second, while in UK they still be waiting.


To be honest all that matters is when you get the second dose and are fully vaccinated and we are making good progress on that

Supercell

Supercell wrote: »

And the over 60's an mRNA instead of a second AZ

Possibly less necessary as the increased dosing gap seems to have resolved their issues with the SA variant to a degree (much better antibody titres which so far have been correlating closely with efficacy against symptomatic infection).

I'd advocate it purely as a risk prevention measure but given the worldwide vaccine shortage and our own reluctance so far to try anything different it probably won't happen unless we start to see issues in autumn.

average_runner

average_runner wrote: »

Yes they are ahead on first dose, but one dose doesn't seem to be great against the Indian variant, hence their rise in cases.


Now in two weeks, alot of the 30-39 will have their first dose and 4 weeks after that they will have their second, while in UK they still be waiting.


To be honest all that matters is when you get the second dose and are fully vaccinated and we are making good progress on that

They are ahead on second doses also.

They are at 43% fully vaccinated, we are currently at 20.4%.