Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

OwlsZat

Woody79 wrote: »

Some benefits of AZ may be longer term t cell immunity than Pfzier.

Is there a theory for that? I'd be surprised if that's the case. Same t memory cells can't see the logic?

OwlsZat

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-says-70-of-adults-fully-vaccinated-by-end-of-july-1139568.html



I guess this means all adults will be fully vaccinated before the end of the school holidays. Will vaccines be approved for children in this country by September?

I believe Pfizer has submitted for this and there was a 100% response in kids. So yes this I think is possible. Well maybe end of September.

OwlsZat

OwlsZat wrote: »

Is there a theory for that? I'd be surprised if that's the case. Same t memory cells can't see the logic?

That's the trade off.

Viral vector vaccines have higher t cell immunity and lower antibody production than MRNA vaccines.

Real world studies show similar protection from both type of vaccines as you need both to protect you.

Viral vector vaccines slower to gain optimal protection than MRNA.

T Cells are more important for long term protection as antibodies wane over time(not needed as no immediate threat).

T cells create antibodies when needed (body comes in contact with C19) in future.

Thats why they are thinking of mixing them.

Best of both worlds.

OwlsZat

OwlsZat wrote: »

I believe Pfizer has submitted for this and there was a 100% response in kids. So yes this I think is possible. Well maybe end of September.

I cant see children without underlying conditions being vaxed anytime soon in ireland.

Doctors aim is "do no harm".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUcY1qdywTc

Plenty of cases of myocarditis (MRNA) in very young, otherwise healthy individuals.

I am all for vaccines for adults, but if you think their is hesitancy now wait until you get to people in their twenties or teenagers.

These people are 0 risk statistically from covid, but could easily suffer sever side effects from vaccine.

I understand parents concern to vaccination their children.

A natural infection for these children may be the best outcome for them.

The only reason you'd vaccinate children is to get to herd immunity quicker.

Thats a moral dilema for parents, with many preferring to leave well alone if it is no risk to their child.

Whats more important: the health of a child or a grandmother.

Vaccinated30

Family member of mine, 2 Pfizer doses, 2nd in Feb (HCW) became quite ill last week. He tested positive for covid. All close contacts tested negative for test 1, even those who live with him. It did give me a bit of a wobble but I suppose imagine how sick he would be without the vaccine

Wolf359f

Woody79 wrote: »

I cant see children without underlying conditions being vaxed anytime soon in ireland.

Doctors aim is "do no harm".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUcY1qdywTc

Plenty of cases of myocarditis (MRNA) in very young, otherwise healthy individuals.

I am all for vaccines for adults, but if you think their is hesitancy now wait until you get to people in their twenties or teenagers.

These people are 0 risk statistically from covid, but could easily suffer sever side effects from vaccine.

I understand parents concern to vaccination their children.

A natural infection for these children may be the best outcome for them.

The only reason you'd vaccinate children is to get to herd immunity quicker.

Thats a moral dilema for parents, with many preferring to leave well alone if it is no risk to their child.

Whats more important: the health of a child or a grandmother.

Now be honest with the Zero.... have zero teenagers or people in their 20's been hospitalized or died from Covid?

I completely understand the reasoning for parents not vaccinating their kids against covid, absolutely see their point. But if you go saying there's zero risk for people aged 0-29, that's just lies. Parents should be able to make an informed decision based on facts, people like you saying their kids are zero risk from covid is completely inaccurate. It's those lies that cause vaccine hesitancy in the public.

Israel looks to have gotten herd immunity with a lower %. The 80% population quoted is based on RX and Y efficiency of vaccines (and I believe based on zero or very minimal reduction in transmission between vaccinated people and unvaccinated people)
I haven't heard of an updated % needed for herd immunity as there's so many variables.

Strazdas

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

Family member of mine, 2 Pfizer doses, 2nd in Feb (HCW) became quite ill last week. He tested positive for covid. All close contacts tested negative for test 1, even those who live with him. It did give me a bit of a wobble but I suppose imagine how sick he would be without the vaccine

Yes, a vaccine doesn't stop you actually contracting the virus - it merely reduces the symptoms in a big way.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Now be honest with the Zero.... have zero teenagers or people in their 20's been hospitalized or died from Covid?

I completely understand the reasoning for parents not vaccinating their kids against covid, absolutely see their point. But if you go saying there's zero risk for people aged 0-29, that's just lies. Parents should be able to make an informed decision based on facts, people like you saying their kids are zero risk from covid is completely inaccurate. It's those lies that cause vaccine hesitancy in the public.

Israel looks to have gotten herd immunity with a lower %. The 80% population quoted is based on RX and Y efficiency of vaccines (and I believe based on zero or very minimal reduction in transmission between vaccinated people and unvaccinated people)
I haven't heard of an updated % needed for herd immunity as there's so many variables.

If I was under 30 and had underlying health condition I would get it asap.
If I was healthy under 30 id say better safe than sorry and get it.
If I was healthy under 25 id be hesitant.
If I was healthy under 20 id be very hesitant.
If I was less than 16 and healthy I outright would not take it.

Risk/reward.

Where is the reward for someone healthy under 16 taking the vaccine?

How many people have died of covid under 30 in ireland?

Your probably down to a handful.

Under 16 = zero.

I'm not vaccine hesitant.

Ive taken it.

Its just common sense there will be hesitancy as we get to lower risk persons.

High risk covid infection = less risk to get side effects of vaccine.

Low risk covid infection = higher risk to get side effects of vaccine.

Most people are aware of this fact over the last 6 months.

Israel (85% of adult population fully vaccinated/2 doses) has been very fortunate at the sheer speed of its program.

All the stars alligned there.

This doesnt apply to 99% of the world though.

Once we get into 30's vaccination rates as % of cohort will be less and less the younger they go.

I actually think there will be a cut off age for teenagers and only people with
underlying conditions below that will be considered for vaccines at all.

I personally dont think any of the current vaccines are "safe" for children with no underlying health conditions under age of 16.

Safe meaning, benefits of vaccine for the individual outweigh risks of covid.

Much more difficult decisions for NIAC at that stage.

Vaccinated30

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, a vaccine doesn't stop you actually contracting the virus - it merely reduces the symptoms in a big way.

In a huge number of cases, it does actually prevent a person from catching the virus.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, a vaccine doesn't stop you actually contracting the virus - it merely reduces the symptoms in a big way.

In a small number of people it won’t work at all. If the individual was as ill as the op suggested this may be the case for their family member

duffman13

eoinbn wrote: »

Promised by who? People in the media? It has been obvious since the middle of April that the Q2 target wasn't going to be hit yet the media are still 'blaming' supply issues. Even if we had unlimited J&J and AZ we have hardly anyone to give it to as we have restricted it to certain age groups. For some reason people can't seem to get their head around that fact.

As for why we have so much Pfizer in stock...
If the tweet in IRISHSPORTSGUY post is correct then we are going back to ~200k doses per week of Pfizer in July. That means we cannot give more than 200k first doses per week currently as won't be able to make second doses in July from supply alone.
Once in July we can start using our stockpile to keep first doses ticking over, but still at a much slower rate than currently.
We could use some of it, but we cannot use all with our current 4 week gap.

Told by the HSE and the Taoiseach in May that 400-450k was still the target for June.

Pfizer stock you mention above is a simplistic explanation but it's also wrong because we could be delivering 300-350k doses a week of Pfizer alone particularly for the next 3 weeks. 170k second doses would mean 180k first doses a week which is still manageable when 2nd doses are due in July.

I've totally excluded J&J for obvious reasons. But there's close to 400k 2nd doses of AZ due in the next 4 weeks and stock available.

Up until mid May I've been very positive towards the roll out and they upscaled far quicker than most people thought possible and fair play to them. I've worked with the HSE a lot and the roll out was well executed but there has been a stagnation.

duffman13

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

In a huge number of cases, it does actually prevent a person from catching the virus.

You will always have people catching the virus even after vaccination. As you mentioned, symptoms could have been far worse without vaccine. We've had a number of people in the last 4 weeks text positive who have been vaxxed however only one was of the 6 was symptomatic and it was extremely mild. 2 of the older ones were early 60s and no symptoms.

is_that_so

duffman13 wrote: »

Told by the HSE and the Taoiseach in May that 400-450k was still the target for June.

Pfizer stock you mention above is a simplistic explanation but it's also wrong because we could be delivering 300-350k doses a week of Pfizer alone particularly for the next 3 weeks. 170k second doses would mean 180k first doses a week which is still manageable when 2nd doses are due in July.

I've totally excluded J&J for obvious reasons. But there's close to 400k 2nd doses of AZ due in the next 4 weeks and stock available.

Up until mid May I've been very positive towards the roll out and they upscaled far quicker than most people thought possible and fair play to them. I've worked with the HSE a lot and the roll out was well executed but there has been a stagnation.

Given that they are working off projected or guaranteed supplies and they have flagged the reason for not moving to higher levels as being down to supplies it's as good as we can do for now. Claiming that there are X quantities of Y vaccine in stock is no evidence that you know better than them how to run this. With so many second doses to do it will look like we're just keeping them on the shelf. Delta seems to spook them , too much IMO, and we are likely to see a higher proportion of second doses.

duffman13

is_that_so wrote: »

Given that they are working off projected or guaranteed supplies and they have flagged the reason for not moving to higher levels as being down to supplies it's as good as we can do for now. Claiming that there are X quantities of Y vaccine in stock is no evidence that you know better than them how to run this. With so many second doses to do it will look like we're just keeping them on the shelf. Delta seems to spook them , too much IMO, and we are likely to see a higher proportion of second doses.

Fair point, I'm still of the mindset of get as much out as quick as possible and maybe operationally I'm missing something. Projected supplies have been pretty much on point for Pfizer and Moderna but it's a fair point you make.

is_that_so

duffman13 wrote: »

Fair point, I'm still of the mindset of get as much out as quick as possible and maybe operationally I'm missing something. Projected supplies have been pretty much on point for Pfizer and Moderna but it's a fair point you make.

I'd agree on vaccines but this whole delta thing seems to have reset priorities. I think the programme has so many moving parts that there is an element of juggling at times including slowdowns in giving new doses and holding onto stock.

eoinbn

duffman13 wrote: »

Told by the HSE and the Taoiseach in May that 400-450k was still the target for June.

Pfizer stock you mention above is a simplistic explanation but it's also wrong because we could be delivering 300-350k doses a week of Pfizer alone particularly for the next 3 weeks. 170k second doses would mean 180k first doses a week which is still manageable when 2nd doses are due in July.

I've totally excluded J&J for obvious reasons. But there's close to 400k 2nd doses of AZ due in the next 4 weeks and stock available.

Up until mid May I've been very positive towards the roll out and they upscaled far quicker than most people thought possible and fair play to them. I've worked with the HSE a lot and the roll out was well executed but there has been a stagnation.

How do you make out we are doing 170k second doses of Pfizer? We were only doing 180k doses total a month ago. 120k of those were first. If we were doing 350k Pfizer currently we would need 230k seconds in July which is more than our projected supply (if the Belgium figures are correct, they might not be).
However we still have more in reverse than most countries. Maybe the HSE are just playing it safe over supply interruption.

450k by mid June (next week) would of come from the following numbers
Pfiz + Mod + J&J + AZ
284k + 35k + 80k + 60k = 459k.

In reality next week we are getting

250k + 35k + 0k + 40k = 325k.

Using AZ will depend on if we are 40k due a second dose. If the gap is shortened to 8 weeks then there should be plenty eligible.
Accounting for some no shows we should be around the 300k mark.
In a couple of weeks if Pfizer and AZ can hit their targets we could be doing 400k but that would only be for a few weeks as we use up the large AZ delivery that is scheduled for the second half of the month. If we can't get near 400k in the second half of the month then it is a capacity issue, but right now it seems to be a mixture of supply constrains and strategic.

xboxdad

Deleted User wrote: »

In a small number of people it won’t work at all. If the individual was as ill as the op suggested this may be the case for their family member

Is there an immunity test one can take to see how well their 2 doses of vaccine protects them at a given point in time?

Marcusm

xboxdad wrote: »

Is there an immunity test one can take to see how well their 2 doses of vaccine protects them at a given point in time?

Antibody and T cell response blood tests can be done and are used to test real world effects. I don’t think this is something you can opt into.

Goldengirl

xboxdad wrote: »

Is there an immunity test one can take to see how well their 2 doses of vaccine protects them at a given point in time?

You can get Antibody tests done privately. These are best left until at least a few weeks post 2nd dose but not doing Tcell testing AFAIK.
Otherwise not testing public as yet.

xboxdad

xboxdad wrote: »

Is there an immunity test one can take to see how well their 2 doses of vaccine protects them at a given point in time?

Save your money.

Might be uselful at national level for statistical purposes.

At individual level they are not recommended.

Most scientists dont know the value of these tests for individuals never mind individuals themselves.

The concern with these tests are that you will be over/under confident based on results which are difficult to interpret.

Get your jabs. Stay healthy. Stay hopeful.

40, still no appointment.

Cork2021

[Deleted User] wrote: »

40, still no appointment.

You can get appointment any time within 3 weeks of registration. You’ve only had 1 week since you registered. Patience

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/irish-vaccine-researchers-at-oxford-receive-queen-s-honours-1.4591116


Some of our homegrown heroes....:D

LJ3103

I am 43 and living in South West Dublin, registered as soon as registration was open to me and I haven't heard anything else since.

Just wondering if this is the experience of everyone else in my age bracket and the younger people we are seeing being vaccinated at vaccination centres are the minority


Thanks

niallo27

LJ3103 wrote: »

I am 43 and living in South West Dublin, registered as soon as registration was open to me and I haven't heard anything else since.

Just wondering if this is the experience of everyone else in my age bracket and the younger people we are seeing being vaccinated at vaccination centres are the minority


Thanks

40 in clare here, got my appointment for ennis next Wednesday. Registered as soon as I can too

LJ3103

LJ3103 wrote: »

I am 43 and living in South West Dublin, registered as soon as registration was open to me and I haven't heard anything else since.

Just wondering if this is the experience of everyone else in my age bracket and the younger people we are seeing being vaccinated at vaccination centres are the minority


Thanks

I know plenty of people younger than me who got the vaccine. One of them turned up without an appointment and just got it.

I guess we have to ignore this and have "patience".

Caquas

astrofool wrote: »

Politics didn't really play any part in it, the decisions were all medically driven, data at at the time lead to the decisions at the time, the authorities on all the vaccines still advise that the best vaccine is the one you are offered first and the real world data supports this ...

.

I beg to differ - there was intense politicking about the composition of the 16 cohorts ( i.e. who would be vaccinated first) and there were serious threats of industrial action when the cohorts were simplified to an age-based order.

And did any of the medical experts say “it doesn’t matter when you get your first jab, what matters is when you are fully inoculated?” .

Perhaps they were unsure of supplies and decided to roll out AZ to the first cohorts even though the result has been that the younger age groups are now inoculated fully with J&J or Pfizer.


I always felt it was nonsense- what mattered was getting as many people as possible inoculated as quickly as possible, given the availability of various vaccines. But it was a big deal some months ago and now it is quietly forgotten.

Locotastic

LJ3103 wrote: »

I am 43 and living in South West Dublin, registered as soon as registration was open to me and I haven't heard anything else since.

Just wondering if this is the experience of everyone else in my age bracket and the younger people we are seeing being vaccinated at vaccination centres are the minority


Thanks

Yep, same here.

Caquas

astrofool wrote: »

Politics didn't really play any part in it, the decisions were all medically driven, data at at the time lead to the decisions at the time, the authorities on all the vaccines still advise that the best vaccine is the one you are offered first and the real world data supports this ...


..

Ah, bless.

There was intense politicking among Ministers about the composition and structure of the cohorts (I.e. definition of the various groups and their sequencing). The teachers and Guards went on the warpath when they lost their priority. Now it’s all quietly forgotten because the wait for a second jab of AZ and the availability of the single jab J&J means it is almost random who is fully inoculated first.

I always thought the slicing and dicing of the population into cohorts was nonsense. What mattered was getting as much of the population inoculated as quickly as supplies allowed. But that was not the attitude of the Government or its medical advisers. Now they’ve stopped talking about cohorts because they realise the thing is a casino- if you got AZ, you’ll just have to wait.

Mind you, you can’t do anything if you are fully inoculated which the rest of us can’t do. At least until that digital cert is issued.

iamwhoiam

Caquas wrote: »

Ah, bless.

There was intense politicking among Ministers about the composition and structure of the cohorts (I.e. definition of the various groups and their sequencing). The teachers and Guards went on the warpath when they lost their priority. Now it’s all quietly forgotten because the wait for a second jab of AZ and the availability of the single jab J&J means it is almost random who is fully inoculated first.

I always thought the slicing and dicing of the population into cohorts was nonsense. What mattered was getting as much of the population inoculated as quickly as supplies allowed. But that was not the attitude of the Government or its medical advisers. Now they’ve stopped talking about cohorts because they realise the thing is a casino- if you got AZ, you’ll just have to wait.

Mind you, you can’t do anything if you are fully inoculated which the rest of us can’t do. At least until that digital cert is issued.

And cohort 7 ( high risk ) were simply abandoned and left to their own devices
So you now have a situation where young 35-40 year olds will be fully vaccinated before the age 60-69 waiting for a second dose of AZ . A lottery indeed