Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

mystic86

JDD wrote: »

So we're definitely going to miss the "80% with first dose by end June" target then. I know that promise was on the basis of reliable supply lines, and with AZ only getting their act together recently and J&J proving to be a flop at supply, it's not surprising that we are going to miss that target. But I don't want it just to be glossed over - if we miss a publically stated target then that should be acknowledged by the government.

I mean, it's quite a big miss. 60% instead of 80% with first vaccine.

Can you not see the word higher before the 60%

Edit: Just listened to it, you are comparing apples and oranges. he said high 60% range of total population, the 82% figure previously spoken about by the Government related to adults, so if he is right in saying high 60% range of population that would equal in excess of 82% of the adult population.

Allinall

JDD wrote: »

So we're definitely going to miss the "80% with first dose by end June" target then. I know that promise was on the basis of reliable supply lines, and with AZ only getting their act together recently and J&J proving to be a flop at supply, it's not surprising that we are going to miss that target. But I don't want it just to be glossed over - if we miss a publically stated target then that should be acknowledged by the government.

I mean, it's quite a big miss. 60% instead of 80% with first vaccine.

The government have always acknowledged missing targets as soon as supply issues become clear.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-ireland-idUSL2N2NE0YS

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/varadkar-says-vaccine-target-for-majority-of-adults-likely-to-be-delayed-1.4576758

https://www.thejournal.ie/new-vaccine-target-5452696-May2021/

ClosedAccountFuzzy

I've seen a couple of my Facebook contacts who I'd know for years go totally off the wall on anti vaxxer stuff in recent weeks and not people I'd have expected tbh

One in particular is posting all sorts of conspiracy theory garbage from the US and elsewhere and was getting absolutely no responses or likes (just an awkward silence) and was annoyed because several people just unfriended her.

Strange times and you'd feel sorry for some people. They're incredibly gullible and perhaps not that bright when it comes to highly technical topics like this.

xboxdad

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

They're incredibly gullible and perhaps not that bright when it comes to highly technical topics like this.

And on top of this, they call us "sheep". Wow.

seamus

Wibbs wrote: »

To add to those two, their partners and kids won't be getting vaccinated either and talking with one of them I know well, he tells me a few of his friends and neighbours and work colleagues are also of the same mind. Birds of a feather and all that. So I'd imagine you'll have a minority who will remain unvaccinated. What the size of that minority is I have zero clue. I wouldn't be too shocked if it weren't hundred odd thousand though.

A few various polls and sources suggest that genuine never-vaxxers are no more than 5% of the population.

Vaccine hesitant people are more than that but consistently dropping.

One (bad) source from last November suggested that 40% of people would refuse a vaccine. Which is somewhat understandable when there was little public info about it, and an impression of a rushed and untested vaccine.

By January, it was down again to just 7% saying they would refuse and 18% saying they're not sure.

By May, only 4% would definitely refuse and 7% weren't sure.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ie/ipsos-mrbiipha-covid-vaccine-tracker-may-2021

The sample only covered those over 18, so there may be additional hesistancy amongst the younglings, especially when you add in the "no chemicals in my precious darling" parental factor. But it won't be an enormous issue IMHO.

is_that_so

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I've seen a couple of my Facebook contacts who I'd know for years go totally off the wall on anti vaxxer stuff in recent weeks and not people I'd have expected tbh

One in particular is posting all sorts of conspiracy theory garbage from the US and elsewhere and was getting absolutely no responses or likes (just an awkward silence) and was annoyed because several people just unfriended her.

Strange times and you'd feel sorry for some people. They're incredibly gullible and perhaps not that bright when it comes to highly technical topics like this.

It is a reminder of just how easy it is to become "radicalized". With the unprecedented events of last year people went in search of answers and found themselves deep in rabbit holes by a mountain of reasonable and simplistic claims. Been sent a lot of stuff in the last year, that is questionable but a policy of constantly checking facts can steer you away from it.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

seamus wrote: »

A few various polls and sources suggest that genuine never-vaxxers are no more than 5% of the population.

Vaccine hesitant people are more than that but consistently dropping.

One (bad) source from last November suggested that 40% of people would refuse a vaccine. Which is somewhat understandable when there was little public info about it, and an impression of a rushed and untested vaccine.

By January, it was down again to just 7% saying they would refuse and 18% saying they're not sure.

By May, only 4% would definitely refuse and 7% weren't sure.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ie/ipsos-mrbiipha-covid-vaccine-tracker-may-2021

The sample only covered those over 18, so there may be additional hesistancy amongst the younglings, especially when you add in the "no chemicals in my precious darling" parental factor. But it won't be an enormous issue IMHO.

The other side of that is a risk that as the vaccinated population increases and cases fall, you'll get people deciding that they don't need it / too much hassle and that's where we will have a risk of never getting to population level immunity.

The sense of urgency naturally fades and complacency sets in

seamus

Indeed, I do think there will be a flapping tail on this thing, but really it just requires more focus. Where simply being able to register for the vaccine is sufficient motivation for now, we'll have to drive more incentive, like they do in the US. We'll likely see small vaccination centres pop up in universities come September, with student bars offering a free pint for your first dose, two free pints for your second, cinemas & McDonalds near to vaccination centres offering free food on your "vaccine day" and so forth.

If apathy is all we have to combat rather than hesistancy, then it's a breeze.

Wibbs

seamus wrote: »

A few various polls and sources suggest that genuine never-vaxxers are no more than 5% of the population.

That's still, what, 200,000 people in Ireland?

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Wibbs wrote: »

That's still, what, 200,000 people in Ireland?

Could be up to 245,000 based on 5% of an estimated 4.9 million.

thebiggestjim

Wibbs wrote: »

That's still, what, 200,000 people in Ireland?

Question for the group if there is anyone in the know. For those that won't get the vaccine, a significant number of them eventually will likely catch Covid and develop antibodies which are good for 9-12 months? Some will get much sicker than they needed to as the vaccine would have helped. The shield of those vaccinated should stop the out of control spread through the general population then. This is basically how it works right?

Not in Kansas

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

Could be up to 245,000 based on 5% of an estimated 4.9 million.

The issue will be if there is concentrated pockets of unvaccinated people rather than an even spread. West Cork in particular has a history of lower than average uptake of childhood vaccines. Wonder will the same play out here.

eoinbn

is_that_so wrote: »

It's the AZ supply and the need to give over days to that in centres. Pfizer can be trusted but AZ is the perennial slacker.

No idea what you mean by that.

We are been supplied 300k mRNA doses but only planning to use 200k. There could be a bunch of reasons for that, capacity been the obvious one, but supply isn't one of them.

is_that_so

thebiggestjim wrote: »

Question for the group if there is anyone in the know. For those that won't get the vaccine, a significant number of them eventually will likely catch Covid and develop antibodies which are good for 9-12 months? Some will get much sicker than they needed to as the vaccine would have helped. The shield of those vaccinated should stop the out of control spread through the general population then. This is basically how it works right?

That's a fair description of it yes. The level of sickness they might get is still unknown and depends more on what group they are in, age, vulnerability etc. It is reasonable to expect that there will be COVID cases but probably at a very low level and so easy to deal with.

RavenBea17b

is_that_so wrote: »

That's a fair description of it yes. The level of sickness they might get is still unknown and depends more on what group they are in, age, vulnerability etc. It is reasonable to expect that there will be COVID cases but probably at a very low level and so easy to deal with.

The concern being long Covid. People who have had mild cases are still suffering from deliberating tiredness,, limb weakness etc. It is still such an unknown.

Micky 32

A qoute from Colm Henry today :

“ The high uptake of Covid-19 vaccines has led to a "collapse in the harm" caused by the virus in the vaccinated population "way beyond" what was expected in clinical trials, according to the HSE's Chief Clinical Officer.”

“ Dr Colm Henry said the vaccine programme promises to "release us from the vice of this virus and that is a cause for hope".

Goldengirl

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I've seen a couple of my Facebook contacts who I'd know for years go totally off the wall on anti vaxxer stuff in recent weeks and not people I'd have expected tbh

One in particular is posting all sorts of conspiracy theory garbage from the US and elsewhere and was getting absolutely no responses or likes (just an awkward silence) and was annoyed because several people just unfriended her.

Strange times and you'd feel sorry for some people. They're incredibly gullible and perhaps not that bright when it comes to highly technical topics like this.

Think the HSE are going to have to concentrate on a social media campaign to get the message across to younger age groups .
Also a carrot might not be a bad idea (ie .. an inducement ) as in other countries .

PhoenixParker

Goldengirl wrote: »

Think the HSE are going to have to concentrate on a social media campaign to get the message across to younger age groups .
Also a carrot might not be a bad idea (ie .. an inducement ) as in other countries .

It's easy to board a flight is a massive carrot for anyone living on the island of Ireland. It's a built in carrot most other countries don't have.

noserider

PhoenixParker wrote: »

It's easy to board a flight is a massive carrot for anyone living on the island of Ireland. It's a built in carrot most other countries don't have.

Free pint/s more tangible to that age cohort

thebiggestjim

thebiggestjim wrote: »

Question for the group if there is anyone in the know. For those that won't get the vaccine, a significant number of them eventually will likely catch Covid and develop antibodies which are good for 9-12 months? Some will get much sicker than they needed to as the vaccine would have helped. The shield of those vaccinated should stop the out of control spread through the general population then. This is basically how it works right?

Most if not all of them will probably get infected eventually. 9-12 months is based on how long antibodies have been observed to last so far. It's not the limit. Also T-Cells. Widespread vaccination should mitigate out of control spread but there's still a risk of not insignificant outbreaks in unvaccinated pockets of the population.

Goldengirl

thebiggestjim wrote: »

Question for the group if there is anyone in the know. For those that won't get the vaccine, a significant number of them eventually will likely catch Covid and develop antibodies which are good for 9-12 months? Some will get much sicker than they needed to as the vaccine would have helped. The shield of those vaccinated should stop the out of control spread through the general population then. This is basically how it works right?

Even those who have had it are advised to get at least one jab to augment protection as wild immunity alone is not deemed sufficient .
The issue for everyone is if there are pockets where the virus becomes endemic we will be chasing it for a long time and always a risk to those with faster waning immune like elderly .
I say roll it out with 50 eu a shot for those not vaccinated by September

Goldengirl

PhoenixParker wrote: »

It's easy to board a flight is a massive carrot for anyone living on the island of Ireland. It's a built in carrot most other countries don't have.

You can board away to a lot if places, it's coming back where it gets pricey !

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

A qoute from Colm Henry today :

“ The high uptake of Covid-19 vaccines has led to a "collapse in the harm" caused by the virus in the vaccinated population "way beyond" what was expected in clinical trials, according to the HSE's Chief Clinical Officer.”

“ Dr Colm Henry said the vaccine programme promises to "release us from the vice of this virus and that is a cause for hope".

HSE hyping up the hysteria again

FuzzyThinking

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I've seen a couple of my Facebook contacts who I'd know for years go totally off the wall on anti vaxxer stuff in recent weeks and not people I'd have expected tbh

One in particular is posting all sorts of conspiracy theory garbage from the US and elsewhere and was getting absolutely no responses or likes (just an awkward silence) and was annoyed because several people just unfriended her.

Strange times and you'd feel sorry for some people. They're incredibly gullible and perhaps not that bright when it comes to highly technical topics like this.

Same here. Wrote to a few of them on Facebook and Instagram usually when they post stories about anti-vaxx material. I find once I challenge them to where they got the information, what evidence etc, they tend to go quiet. Usually their information is from someone with a high following on Instagram that gained traction from the start of the pandemic posting complete tripe with no context or misinterpreting news articles that tends to get them going.

mossie

InitialG wrote: »

Same here. Wrote to a few of them on Facebook and Instagram usually when they post stories about anti-vaxx material. I find once I challenge them to where they got the information, what evidence etc, they tend to go quiet. Usually their information is from someone with a high following on Instagram that gained traction from the start of the pandemic posting complete tripe with no context or misinterpreting news articles that tends to get them going.

Yeah, I had a "friend" who kept sharing crap like that. She's gone quiet lately though. The last post was back in March about how the vaccines would attack our bodies after 30 days and there would be millions of deaths because of this. Anyway I see her list of friends on FB has dropped by 75% since she started posting antivaxer and "COVID-19 is fake" stuff.

Red Silurian

Still awaiting for the EMA to finish it's rolling review of the below, in brackets the start date of the rolling review as announced on the EMA website

NVX-CoV2373 - Novavax (03/02/21)
CVnCoV - Curevac (12/02/21)
Sputnik V - Gamaleya (04/03/21)
Vero Cell - Sinovac (04/05/21)
Vir-7831 - GSK/Vir Bio (07/05/21)

I know the EMA have to take their time with these things but the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine only took about 2.5 months from rolling review start to approval

Novavax has been under review for almost twice that time

Tyrone212

mossie wrote: »

Yeah, I had a "friend" who kept sharing crap like that. She's gone quiet lately though. The last post was back in March about how the vaccines would attack our bodies after 30 days and there would be millions of deaths because of this. Anyway I see her list of friends on FB has dropped by 75% since she started posting antivaxer and "COVID-19 is fake" stuff.

So many simpletons running about. They all need sectioned.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Not in Kansas wrote: »

The issue will be if there is concentrated pockets of unvaccinated people rather than an even spread. West Cork in particular has a history of lower than average uptake of childhood vaccines. Wonder will the same play out here.

It's possible. It may be more of a virtual cohort though who are spread more randomly. Most of the negativity to vaccines is spread online.

Also this is quite different to the childhood vaccines in the sense that it's much a more tangible threat.

Most prior have never seen the diseases that are being vaccinated against in childhood programmes, so effective have the vaccines been.

COVID has really woken a lot of ppl up!

mossie

Tyrone212 wrote: »

So many simpletons running about. They all need sectioned.

Yeah they'll believe anything that comes from an "expert" on FB.

Red Silurian

Red Silurian wrote: »

Still awaiting for the EMA to finish it's rolling review of the below, in brackets the start date of the rolling review as announced on the EMA website

NVX-CoV2373 - Novavax (03/02/21)
CVnCoV - Curevac (12/02/21)
Sputnik V - Gamaleya (04/03/21)
Vero Cell - Sinovac (04/05/21)
Vir-7831 - GSK/Vir Bio (07/05/21)

I know the EMA have to take their time with these things but the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine only took about 2.5 months from rolling review start to approval

Novavax has been under review for almost twice that time

How many of those have actually submitted for approval as they cant get approved until they actually ask? One. And the review cannot be completed without formal application

Sinovac will likely never get approval as the effectivity is lower than anything currently available so does not address any clinical need.

Sputnik missed a submission deadline for data last week so will also be delayed.