Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

odyssey06

delly wrote: »

That article is nearly 3 weeks old and in the current post cyber attack period and delta, it may as well be 3 months old. As I said, unless you are connected to the process, any views of it being right or wrong are conjecture. But if practices are not making it a secret, you can be damn sure it's done with HSE approval.
It doesn't stop the begrudging attitude though, of what is a logical approach to increasing jabs that would otherwise have to wait.

Is there more supply at present than MVCs can handle i.e. the constraint on the general rollout programme isn't vaccine supply but what the MVCs can get through per day?
That seems to be implied by your post.

seamus

SusanC10 wrote: »

Personally, I would like Parents to have the choice to vaccinate their own children.

They always will have that choice. There has never been a mandatory vaccination programme.

Any rollout will be done through the schools, but will require parental consent for all students under 18.

SusanC10

seamus wrote: »

They always will have that choice. There has never been a mandatory vaccination programme.

Any rollout will be done through the schools, but will require parental consent for all students under 18.

What I meant is that I hope that Ireland do not decide that they won't offer the Vaccines to Ages 12-15. That Parents here will have the choice of getting their children vaccinated.

If it is done through the schools, I hope that they include Primary school children who are aged 12+.

seamus

SusanC10 wrote: »

What I meant is that I hope that Ireland do not decide that they won't offer the Vaccines to Ages 12-15. That Parents here will have the choice of getting their children vaccinated.

I'd be 90% sure they will. We know there's a small inflection point around the age of 12 in terms of the impact and spread of covid. So it would make no sense to not vaccinate down that low.

If it is done through the schools, I hope that they include Primary school children who are aged 12+.

I expect after the initial rollout, and depending on the course of the pandemic, a round of vaccinations will form part of the 1st year "curriculum" every September and October, or will be done in primary schools around May/June.
If someone wants to vaccinate outside of that, it will always be available through a GP.

SusanC10

SusanC10 wrote: »

Saw from the NPHET briefing yesterday that NIAC will issue advice soon on whether or not Ireland should offer vaccines to the under-16 age group (and presumably 12+ as per EMA authorisation)

Wondering what they will decide ?

Personally, I would like Parents to have the choice to vaccinate their own children.

Do we not have a choice as things stand?

SusanC10

seamus wrote: »

I'd be 90% sure they will. We know there's a small inflection point around the age of 12 in terms of the impact and spread of covid. So it would make no sense to not vaccinate down that low.

I expect after the initial rollout, and depending on the course of the pandemic, a round of vaccinations will form part of the 1st year "curriculum" every September and October, or will be done in primary schools around May/June.

Hopefully, you are correct in all that Seamus.

SusanC10

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Do we not have a choice as things stand?

Sorry - I worded that badly.

What I meant is that I hope that Ireland do not decide that they won't offer the Vaccines to Ages 12-15. That Parents here will have the choice of getting their children vaccinated.

NufcNavan

Watch the anti-vaxxers lose their sh*t once the vaccine is approved for under 18s though.

SusanC10

NufcNavan wrote: »

Watch the anti-vaxxers lose their sh*t once the vaccine is approved for under 18s though.

Why though ? The anti-vaxxers can just make their own choices in relation to their own children.

SusanC10

SusanC10 wrote: »

Why though ? The anti-vaxxers can just make their own choices in relation to their own children.

Yeah but they'll just make stuff up, saying it will be mandatory even though it won't be.

josip

delly wrote: »

Your post is as sour as can be and is now becoming a common one among those who are still not jabbed.

Unless you work in or part of a GP practice, you really have no idea what the protocols are for a GP ordering doses. There is currently no supply issues in MVCs, and if a GP has covered everyone in cohert 4 and 7, and if our older people are covered nationally, then it makes sense for GPs to continue doing what they are doing.

Overall it means the next groups will have less people who require a jab and it supplements the MVC process. But continue to think GPs are going rogue if you like, keeping it a secret from the HSE, just to get some extra cash.

I'm getting my 2nd dose in a week's time so I'm not affected by what the GPs are doing.
I don't think it's fair that many people who are following the rules and applying via the MVC are still awaiting vaccination, while people significantly younger than them are able to skip the queue.
Queue jumpers don't seem to be able to comprehend that with finite supplies of vaccines, they are slowing up the others by going ahead of their turn.
But there have always been people in Ireland who think that's ok, 'mé féiners', and it won't be any different for the vaccination program.

Amirani

josip wrote: »

I'm getting my 2nd dose in a week's time so I'm not affected by what the GPs are doing.
I don't think it's fair that many people who are following the rules and applying via the MVC are still awaiting vaccination, while people significantly younger than them are able to skip the queue.
Queue jumpers don't seem to be able to comprehend that with finite supplies of vaccines, they are slowing up the others by going ahead of their turn.
But there have always been people in Ireland who think that's ok, 'mé féiners', and it won't be any different for the vaccination program.

I do agree generally, but it becomes understandable after a point.

If you're one of the first to "queue-jump", then you'd ask yourself questions. But when many of your friends and people younger then you have done similar, it becomes much harder to say no. There's a human nature element that if everyone else seems to be doing something, then you feel a bit screwed over unless you do similar. Happens in lots of aspects of life really.

Lyle

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

SusanC10

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

Seems like a very long wait if you are 18-24.
Hopefully the projected timeline isn't that long.

funnydoggy

Looks (if accurate) like my second dose in October for me, that's fairly grim :-|

darem93

First dose by September, gosh that is so frustrating

ELM327

Just wanted to add, I'm a follower of these threads but dont regularly post anymore as the case watch is not good for my mental health.
I've just received my second pfizer dose this morning. 34, cohort 7 with other medical issue.
Been deathly afraid of this virus as I have really bad asthma, hayfever, penicillin allergy, history of reactions to MMR etc. The works.
It's so refreshing to see us getting back to normal now as a society as more and more people get vaccinated. My partner can now see her kids again. She was higher risk than me so when the kids went back to in person school we couldnt see them. It's been a couple of months. I havent seen family since early 2020/late 2019 beyond "through the glass" visits at christmas

I dont care if bill gates is able to control me, or spoons stick to my arm, I'm just happy to be getting back to normal.

1huge1

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

I don't think this is entirely accurate, I have read that the amount of doses received is expected to drop in July, however, are thye not supposed to increase again in August (even without AZ & J&J).

Also, even if we are not contracted to receive J&J after the end of this month, aren't they a couple of 100k behind schedule at present?

kg703

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

I think (&hope) it'll go much quicker than this. Electric Picnic will be screwed with this timeline

seamus

I haven't crunched the projected numbers, you can say that there are around 600k people per "decade", and if we're going to be administering 200k doses a week, it's going to be on a fairly solid 50:50 basis between first and second doses.

So if you assume (for the sake of simplicity) that all 40+ have their first dose by the end of June, then you have around 1.3m adults over 18 still waiting on their first dose. At 100k first doses/week, it'll take approx 13 weeks to get them all first-dosed, which will bring us up to mid-September.

That's a very rough guess obviously, I'd give or take a week or two there. If you're 18, it might be late September before you get your first dose.

I'm also expecting something else to come in terms of supply. I know there's nothing specifically on the horizon, but there is now considerably greater scope to place and receive additional orders. If we ramp back up to 300k/week August, we'd be done (first doses) before colleges go back.

duffman13

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

I would question the 200,000 to be very honest. That is way below what I would expect to be delivered in the first place never mind what is currently in stock

A pessimistic look at the below would have us about 250k mRNA vaccines arriving per week from July, a drop off in what we are currently getting however there is two things to consider.

1. There is a healthy volume of mRNA in stock which will hopefully be clarified next week ones the cyber attack stuff is rectified.

2. We are getting over 300k a week at the moment and given the push on AZ are probably only using 200k mRNA ones for the next 3-4 weeks as there is over 100k a week to be done of those, building up more buffer stock in mRNA vaccines.

I do think there will be a stagnation in mid August more than July if the stocks continue at 250k (240k - 270K) a week but hopefully Moderna will step up by then.

Adding link

https://mobile.twitter.com/jorisvaesen/status/1403727828273750016

On looking at your numbers further v the population remaining, its way off to be honest and overly pessimistic

eoinbn

1huge1 wrote: »

I don't think this is entirely accurate, I have read that the amount of doses received is expected to drop in July, however, are thye not supposed to increase again in August (even without AZ & J&J).

Also, even if we are not contracted to receive J&J after the end of this month, aren't they a couple of 100k behind schedule at present?

We have a contract for another 2.1m J&J but they are irrelevant. They aren't going to be used on the under 40s as things currently stand.
Moderna should increase supply in the second half of Q3. It could potentially push us back to around 300k doses a week.

Hopefully there is some action behind the scene to make up for J&J and Curevac.

josip

Every country sees a reduction in uptake as you reach younger cohorts.
So if there was only 70% uptake among the 30-39s for example, that would speed up the process for those 20-29 who did want it.

duffman13

josip wrote: »

Every country sees a reduction in uptake as you reach younger cohorts.
So if there was only 70% uptake among the 30-39s for example, that would speed up the process for those 20-29 who did want it.

This plus there is a couple of % of the population in younger cohorts who would have been vaccinated as HC workers (400K not all in the younger category but a fair to assume based on demographics that around half are)

And also Cohort 4 and 7 particularly.

I would imagine the majority of the over 18s in the country who want a vaccine will be fully vaxxed by the end of August if the update is around 80%

That is obviously without seeing August schedule obviously

eoinbn

duffman13 wrote: »

I would question the 200,000 to be very honest. That is way below what I would expect to be delivered in the first place never mind what is currently in stock

A pessimistic look at the below would have us about 250k mRNA vaccines arriving per week from July, a drop off in what we are currently getting however there is two things to consider.

1. There is a healthy volume of mRNA in stock which will hopefully be clarified next week ones the cyber attack stuff is rectified.

2. We are getting over 300k a week at the moment and given the push on AZ are probably only using 200k mRNA ones for the next 3-4 weeks as there is over 100k a week to be done of those, building up more buffer stock in mRNA vaccines.

I do think there will be a stagnation in mid August more than July if the stocks continue at 250k (240k - 270K) a week but hopefully Moderna will step up by then.

Adding link

https://mobile.twitter.com/jorisvaesen/status/1403727828273750016

On looking at your numbers further v the population remaining, its way off to be honest and overly pessimistic

The Pfizer's numbers on that Twitter account have always been wrong.
We don't actually know if we have a stockpile. Doses delivered - doses admin does not automatically equal the stockpiled amount.
Why? Wastage. Do we know if we have been able to use all 6 doses per vial? The last dose requires a special syringe. US states have been wasting doses due to lack of needles. It could be the same here.

eoinbn

eoinbn wrote: »

The Pfizer's numbers on that Twitter account have always been wrong.
We don't actually know if we have a stockpile. Doses delivered - doses admin does not automatically equal the stockpiled amount.
Why? Wastage. Do we know if we have been able to use all 6 doses per vial? The last dose requires a special syringe. US states have been wasting doses due to lack of needles. It could be the same here.

Wastage in the UK had been running at less than 5%, it would be a useful question for one of the journalists to ask at the next briefing.

mightyreds

delly wrote: »

Your post is as sour as can be and is now becoming a common one among those who are still not jabbed.

Unless you work in or part of a GP practice, you really have no idea what the protocols are for a GP ordering doses. There is currently no supply issues in MVCs, and if a GP has covered everyone in cohert 4 and 7, and if our older people are covered nationally, then it makes sense for GPs to continue doing what they are doing.

Overall it means the next groups will have less people who require a jab and it supplements the MVC process. But continue to think GPs are going rogue if you like, keeping it a secret from the HSE, just to get some extra cash.

Johnny0Toole wrote: »

Er, there are protocols for GPs at the moment, they're only meant to be organising doses for over 70s, cohort 4 and 7. If they're done with them then they shouldn't be getting doses.

If they are getting doses for 4 and 7 and end up with spares then fair enough, but ordering doses for everyone on the books is taking the piss.

They might be taking the piss but they are doing it, my GP did cohort 7 then moved down from BMI 35 to 30 in some cases in to 27 , then moved on to anyone who wants it, my sister is 26 she got hers and is due a second shortly, my brother at 33 got his first Tuesday.
Most people in my small town in their 30's are done through the same GP seems all you need to do is pick up the phone and ask.

mightyreds

mightyreds wrote: »

They might be taking the piss but they are doing it, my GP did cohort 7 then moved down from BMI 35 to 30 in some cases in to 27 , then moved on to anyone who wants it, my sister is 26 she got hers and is due a second shortly, my brother at 33 got his first Tuesday.
Most people in my small town in their 30's are done through the same GP seems all you need to do is pick up the phone and ask.

As someone waiting patiently to register that is a bit disheartening.

ebbsy

ELM327 wrote: »

Just wanted to add, I'm a follower of these threads but dont regularly post anymore as the case watch is not good for my mental health.
I've just received my second pfizer dose this morning. 34, cohort 7 with other medical issue.
Been deathly afraid of this virus as I have really bad asthma, hayfever, penicillin allergy, history of reactions to MMR etc. The works.
It's so refreshing to see us getting back to normal now as a society as more and more people get vaccinated. My partner can now see her kids again. She was higher risk than me so when the kids went back to in person school we couldnt see them. It's been a couple of months. I havent seen family since early 2020/late 2019 beyond "through the glass" visits at christmas

I dont care if bill gates is able to control me, or spoons stick to my arm, I'm just happy to be getting back to normal.

Common sense.

I had my second Pfizer yesterday, feel like the air has been sucked out of my fat body today. But necessary.

deeperlearning

Lyle wrote: »

Assuming the weekly targets are going to drop to 200,000 doses per week, with a 3 to 4 week gap between opening registrations for different age groups, and time between registering and receiving first dose, does the following timeline seem realistic to those who're well clued into this whole thing:

June
First doses for 40+
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
Second doses from June (40+)
Registration opens for 30 - 34
First doses for 35 - 39

August
Registration for 25 - 29
Second doses for 35 - 39
First doses for 30 - 34

September
Registration for 18 - 24
Second doses for 30 - 34
First doses for 25 - 29

October
Second doses for 25 - 29
First doses for 18 - 24

November
Second doses for 18 - 24

A number of those under 40 have been vaccinated as healthcare workers, cohort 4/5, by the GP, etc.
I think the timetable will be closer to the following:


June
First doses for 40-49
Second doses 50-59
Registration opens for 35 - 39

July
First doses for 35-39 (~250,000 doses)
Second doses 40-49 (~550,000 doses)
Registration opens for 25- 34

August
First doses for 23-34 (~550,000 doses)
Second doses for 35 -39 (~250,000 doses)
Registration opens for 18-24

September
First doses for 18-22* (~250,000 doses)
Second doses for 23-34 (~550,000 doses)

October
Second doses for 18-22 (~250,000 doses)


Depending on uptake, they could well get to do the 18-22 year olds in August. After that, it would be second jabs and stragglers of all sorts getting a first jab.