The great myths of housing

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:43pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

every post you make ( regardless of the thread topic ) is peppered with left wing ideology and borderline existential thinking

It's called having an opinion.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:44pm

Cyrus wrote: »

thats a further distortion to any comparison you are making to here,

the average mortgage rate here will be double what you are paying and most likely at 80% leverage v 100%.

I know. I listed this as a problem originally.

24-05-2021 1:44pm

fvp4 wrote: »

So what if he can’t earn those wages elsewhere?

His wages are good, but hardly extraordinarily good. Plenty of jobs that pay 90k in any Irish city (No offence to the poster in question).

24-05-2021 1:45pm

Cyrus wrote: »

being able to borrow 100% of the property price at 1.2% is at least part of that particular equation.

If that was introduced in Ireland house prices would rocket and affordability would remain the same. It’s supply vs demand that matters.

Cyrus · 24-05-2021 1:45pm

Brian? wrote: »

I know. I listed this as a problem originally.

im not sure anyone is calling for the return of 100% mortgages in ireland though.

it didnt go very well the las time :pac:

Cyrus · 24-05-2021 1:45pm

fvp4 wrote: »

If that was introduced in Ireland house prices would rocket and affordability would remain the same. It’s supply vs demand that matters.

i agree.

which is why the calls to change the CB rules baffle me, as if that will improve things.

24-05-2021 1:46pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

His wages are good, but hardly extraordinarily good. Plenty of jobs that pay 90k in any Irish city (No offence to the poster in question).

They would be fairly rare in many cities. That said we are talking about median household income vs house prices.

If the solution is to “live in a different city” then this is clearly an admission that the city he can’t live in is overpriced.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:47pm

The Student wrote: »

Do you honestly think the culture will change? The posts on this forum should show you that the culture will not change if there are no consequences.

How many repossessions have happened? How many evictions have happened? How many social tenants are in rent arrears?

If any of the above issues are raised in the public arena by a public official it is career suicide.

whether you accept it or not we have some who are just take all the time and don't give back and we have those who give more than others and don't get much back. I am not talking just financial either. There are others ways to contribute other than financial but some don't give back.

Your vision is an idealist one which will never happen.

Culture changes all of the time. There is nothing idealist about wanting Ireland to follow continental Europe. It's injecting real solutions into the conversation instead of ideas like "culture".

I'm suggesting very real changes that can be made. Not aspirations.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:49pm

Cyrus wrote: »

being able to borrow 100% of the property price at 1.2% is at least part of that particular equation.

Shouldn't the prices be higher as I can afford more? Or are the prices actually controlled by proper regulation of the market?

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:50pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

His wages are good, but hardly extraordinarily good. Plenty of jobs that pay 90k in any Irish city (No offence to the poster in question).

I would earn more for the equivalent job in Ireland, I did in the past. But I would have less spending power. Which is the core of my point.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:51pm

Cyrus wrote: »

im not sure anyone is calling for the return of 100% mortgages in ireland though.

it didnt go very well the las time :pac:

Due to poor regulation. It works with better regulation.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 1:52pm

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree.

which is why the calls to change the CB rules baffle me, as if that will improve things.

In isolation it'll make things worse. Which was why I wrote a whole list of ideas....

hometruths · 24-05-2021 1:57pm

Brian? wrote: »

Boom. There's the answer. This culture needs to change.

Indeed, and that's exactly the point the article in the OP is making:

If we can free our minds to think differently about housing, then we can be our own saviours.

Cyrus · 24-05-2021 1:59pm

Brian? wrote: »

Shouldn't the prices be higher as I can afford more? Or are the prices actually controlled by proper regulation of the market?

i dont know im not familiar with the market in eindhoven, from what you say it certainly sounds better.

although maybe not as regulated as you suggest? Doesnt seem far off average dublin prices?

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2020/01/eindhoven-house-prices-soar/

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2021/01/another-sharp-rise-in-house-prices-in-the-eindhoven-region/

All sounds remarkably familiar....

An important reason for the tense housing market is the lack of supply. According to the Eindhoven broker Pieter van Santvoort, the supply in the region has reached a historic low in the past 20 years. “This is unprecedented. The corona crisis has not had any negative effect on the number of sales. On the contrary, the temperature on the market has only increased due to the tight supply. It is a great pity that this overheating puts so many people especially starters, offside. ”

“It is getting monotonous, but the only solution is new constructions on a large scale soon. The need is enormous and the backlog is great. There is mainly a shortage of affordable owner-occupied homes,” says Van Santvoort.

Dav010 · 24-05-2021 2:01pm

Brian? wrote: »

Due to poor regulation. It works with better regulation.

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

Wanderer78 · 24-05-2021 2:05pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

...of course, we have learned from our previous credit fueled boom bust cycle, this is exactly what occurs, when more money is introduced

Brian? · 24-05-2021 2:06pm

Cyrus wrote: »

i dont know im not familiar with the market in eindhoven, from what you say it certainly sounds better.

although maybe not as regulated as you suggest? Doesnt seem far off average dublin prices?

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2020/01/eindhoven-house-prices-soar/

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2021/01/another-sharp-rise-in-house-prices-in-the-eindhoven-region/

All sounds remarkably familiar....

It’s a panic because it’s so unusual. It’s being addressed with a lot of development

Eindhoven news is an awful source by the way.

timmyntc · 24-05-2021 2:07pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

It would here in Ireland. I presume there are other factors at play in NL to stop prices rising uncontrollably. Or maybe just enough supply that its a buyers market?

Thats the problem with housing as a market - if theres a drop in supply and prices start to rise, people still *need* housing. So the demand doesnt go away as prices rise. So throw 100% mortgages into the mix and you have runaway prices.

People getting "priced out" of the market is markets behaving correctly in a period of short supply, which doesnt happen with 100% mortgages. But you could also say that we should aim not to price anyone out of the market, because housing is not just an asset but you know, a house. Somewhere to live - a fundamental need.
That would take a fundamental change in how we treat housing - less of an investment and more of a basic human need.

Cyrus · 24-05-2021 2:09pm

Brian? wrote: »

It’s a panic because it’s so unusual. It’s being addressed with a lot of development

Eindhoven news is an awful source by the way.

are the average prices quoted incorrect?

Brian? · 24-05-2021 2:09pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

If done in isolation. YES! I’ve said so a few times.

If the property and banking sectors are regulated properly fist then no. It’s the last step I’d take in Ireland right now

Punish vacant properties, increase supply, increase mixed cost development, increase social housing, control development land first.

Ace2007 · 24-05-2021 2:10pm

fvp4 wrote: »

Are we arguing the dimensions of the city here? Is that where you are now.

You stated that we weren't talking about Howth, and that one should be able to buy in city,so for clarity it's important to state what counts as the city. Does Dalkey, Drumcondra, Clontarf, Malahide?

Brian? · 24-05-2021 2:10pm

Cyrus wrote: »

are the average prices quoted incorrect?

No idea.

Wanderer78 · 24-05-2021 2:10pm

timmyntc wrote: »

It would here in Ireland. I presume there are other factors at play in NL to stop prices rising uncontrollably. Or maybe just enough supply that its a buyers market?

Thats the problem with housing as a market - if theres a drop in supply and prices start to rise, people still *need* housing. So the demand doesnt go away as prices rise. So throw 100% mortgages into the mix and you have runaway prices.

People getting "priced out" of the market is markets behaving correctly in a period of short supply, which doesnt happen with 100% mortgages. But you could also say that we should aim not to price anyone out of the market, because housing is not just an asset but you know, a house. Somewhere to live - a fundamental need.
That would take a fundamental change in how we treat housing - less of an investment and more of a basic human need.

always baring in mind, increasing the money supply towards property markets leads to an increase in demand, therefore an increase in price, i.e. a positive feedback loop

Cyrus · 24-05-2021 2:11pm

Brian? wrote: »

No idea.

ok lets assume they are correct then, if you dont care to refute them.

Ace2007 · 24-05-2021 2:12pm

Brian? wrote: »

Punish vacant properties, increase supply, increase mixed cost development, increase social housing, control development land first.

Large amount of vacant properties are vacant because of legal disputes, or issues surrounding fair deal scheme, or because in some areas people were forced out of their homes and no one will buy them.

Where are you going to increase the supply and were is the development - I've asked a few times and that question is side stepped, as it's not a comfortable answer.

24-05-2021 2:13pm

Anybody who has access to the Indo have any idea what the op means by the 0.3% first time buyer transactions or how that even justifies his argument about there being no crisis, if true.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 2:15pm

timmyntc wrote: »

It would here in Ireland. I presume there are other factors at play in NL to stop prices rising uncontrollably. Or maybe just enough supply that its a buyers market?

Thats the problem with housing as a market - if theres a drop in supply and prices start to rise, people still *need* housing. So the demand doesnt go away as prices rise. So throw 100% mortgages into the mix and you have runaway prices.

People getting "priced out" of the market is markets behaving correctly in a period of short supply, which doesnt happen with 100% mortgages. But you could also say that we should aim not to price anyone out of the market, because housing is not just an asset but you know, a house. Somewhere to live - a fundamental need.
That would take a fundamental change in how we treat housing - less of an investment and more of a basic human need.

What happens here is the government control the supply of development land. Sell the land to developers with strict agreements on what they do with and when.

Don’t build too many to crash the market, build enough to keep prices stable.

Eindhoven is experiencing a mini boom because Philips and ASML are hiring people from all over the world on good salaries. ASML hired about 8000 people in the last 2 years. That’s a lot of demand.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 2:16pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

Large amount of vacant properties are vacant because of legal disputes, or issues surrounding fair deal scheme, or because in some areas people were forced out of their homes and no one will buy them.

Where are you going to increase the supply and were is the development - I've asked a few times and that question is side stepped, as it's not a comfortable answer.

Build up in the city and infill where available.

Incentivise older people downsizing by having smaller units readily available for them close to devices.

Brian? · 24-05-2021 2:18pm

Cyrus wrote: »

ok lets assume they are correct then, if you dont care to refute them.

What’s your point? The property prices could be correct, it doesn’t undermine a single point I mde about affordability

PMBC · 24-05-2021 2:19pm

timmyntc wrote: »

It would here in Ireland. I presume there are other factors at play in NL to stop prices rising uncontrollably. Or maybe just enough supply that its a buyers market?

Thats the problem with housing as a market - if theres a drop in supply and prices start to rise, people still *need* housing. So the demand doesnt go away as prices rise. So throw 100% mortgages into the mix and you have runaway prices.

People getting "priced out" of the market is markets behaving correctly in a period of short supply, which doesnt happen with 100% mortgages. But you could also say that we should aim not to price anyone out of the market, because housing is not just an asset but you know, a house. Somewhere to live - a fundamental need.
That would take a fundamental change in how we treat housing - less of an investment and more of a basic human need.

The supply demand thing would seem to make sense. But when we built almost 90,000 one year, prices still went up. Just an observation

The great myths of housing

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