2021 Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Season

Meteorite58 · 22-08-2021 11:26pm

Weakened considerably, seeing some storm damage mostly from fallen trees heavy in leafy , some power outages, flooding seems to be the main concern now.

Storm 10 · 23-08-2021 12:17am

Will it head across the Atlantic like some storms or some other direction

Meteorite58 · 23-08-2021 1:02am

Looks like most of the remnants head up towards Greenland / Iceland, at the moment nothing of note gets absorbed into other areas of LP, but with these features you never know, models often go haywire when they come into our latitudes, Hp blocking looks fairly consistent in the main models on current runs.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-08-2021 8:33pm

Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 800 PM
EDT Sat Aug 21 through 1000 AM EDT Mon Aug 23...

...CONNECTICUT...
ENE MANCHESTER                       5.00                    
SOUTH WINDSOR                        4.50                    
HEBRON 2 SW                          4.41                    
NEW LONDON                           3.70                    
NORWICH                              3.25                    
GROTON                               2.99                    
PAWCATUCK                            2.39                    

...DELAWARE...
LEWES 7.8 S                          3.42                    
LONG NECK 6.5 NW                     3.38                    
DOVER 5.1 WSW                        2.97                    
FELTON 3.6 NE                        2.91                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
FEEDING HILLS                        2.77                    
SOUTHWICK                            2.72                    
SOUTHAMPTON                          2.52                    
BECKET                               2.25                    
PITTSFIELD                           1.94                    
SANDISFIELD 3 S                      1.72                    
EAST OTIS                            1.67                    

...NEW JERSEY...
CRANBURY                             8.91                    
JAMESBURG                            8.66                    
FRANKLIN TWP 0.4 W                   8.51                    
BEDMINSTER TWP 2.9 ESE               7.73                    
PLAINSBORO TWP 1.8 ESE               7.71                    
FREDON TWP 2.4 NE                    7.67                    
HOPEWELL 0.4 SSW                     6.69                    
HARRISON                             6.68                    
LEBANON 0.5 E                        6.55                    
LYNDHURST                            6.50                    
LONG BEACH TWP 1.4 SSE               6.49                    
HELMETTA 0.1 NE                      6.17                    
JERSEY CITY                          5.95                    
SURF CITY                            5.81                    
SHIP BOTTOM                          5.65                    
STRAFFORD TWP 2.2 NNE                5.25                    
MCGUIRE AFB                          2.15                    

...NEW YORK...
BROOKLYN                             8.03                    
PROSPECT PARK                        7.77                    
SOUTH SLOPE                          7.05                    
CENTRAL PARK                         7.04                    
LAKE SUCCESS 1 WSW                   6.58                    
MIDTOWN MANHATTAN                    6.46                    
BOERUM HILL                          6.16                    
BATTERY PARK                         6.15                    

...PENNSYLVANIA...
BLAKESLEE 0.9 SW                     6.67                    
SCHNECKSVILLE 1.7 ENE                6.50                    
SAYLORSBURG                          6.24                    
PORTLAND 2.7 WNW                     5.82                    
NORTH WALES SW                       5.81                    
ARDMORE                              4.25                    
NEW HANOVER                          2.06                    
EAGLEVILLE                           1.93                    
BRISTOL                              1.86                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
WESTERLY 1 S                         3.81                    
RICHMOND 1 E                         3.24                    
CHARLESTOWN 1 E                      3.07                    
WESTERLY ARPT                        2.73                    
SOUTH KINGSTOWN                      2.48                    
COVENTRY                             2.00                    
WESTERLY STATE AIRPORT               1.76                    
WAKEFIELD-PEACEDALE 5.0 SW           1.32                    
NEWPORT, NEWPORT STATE AIRPORT       1.21                    
SOUTH KINGSTON 4.3 WSW               1.00                    
CHARLESTOWN 0.7 E                    0.98                    
WAKEFIELD 0.8 ENE                    0.97                    
PROVIDENCE                           0.38 THEODORE GREEN AIRPT

...Selected preliminary Peak Wind gusts in miles per hour earlier
in the event...

...CONNECTICUT...
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER           55                    
GROTON ARPT                            53                    
USCG ACADEMY                           49                    
STONINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER            48                    
HARTFORD BRADLEY INTL ARPT             44                    

...MASSACHUSETTS...
WOODS HOLE                             55                    
MASHPEE                                51                    
WEST ISLAND                            51                    
WELLFLEET                              48                    
BORDEN FLATS LIGHT                     47                    
DUXBURY                                47                    
VINEYARD STATION                       46                    
WEST DENNIS                            45                    

...NEW YORK...
GREAT GULL ISLAND                      69                    
STONY BROOK                            53                    
BAITING HOLLOW                         52                    
ORIENT 1 N                             50                    
SHINNECOCK                             49                    
NAPEAGUE                               48                    

...RHODE ISLAND...
POINT JUDITH                           70                    
UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND             69                    
HALFWAY ROCK                           68                    
BLOCK ISLAND JETTY                     63                    
NEW SHOREHAM                           63

Meteorite58 · 26-08-2021 7:41pm

Things heating up again.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1430958361697267725?s=20

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 12:25am

Recon data have shown it's now a tropical storm, so it has been named Ida tonight. Current winds 35 knots.

Its current projected path should take it close to or over the Loop Current Eddy south of New Orleans. Ocean Heat Content in this area is up to 150 kJ/cm². That could cause rapid intensification just before landfall later Sunday, but still a lot of uncertainty on the exact track as of now. One to watch.

zisdead · 27-08-2021 1:14am

And if Ida held on the current track and did rapidly intensify it's about as bad as it could get for New orleans as it would take the full brunt of the stronger right side of the then hurricane.

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 7:16am

Part of the latest NHC Discussion. They have it 95 knots near the LA coast but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.6N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 19.9N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 21.8N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
 36H  28/1200Z 23.8N  85.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 25.6N  88.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 27.3N  89.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 29.0N  90.6W   95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  31/0000Z 32.0N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/0000Z 33.9N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the
moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and
wind field are asymmetric.  However, the global model show the
upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through
the weekend.  These more conducive winds aloft combined with very
warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or
rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The
intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but
there is notable spread in how strong the system will become.  Given
the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the
NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance,
in best agreement with the regional hurricane models.  It is also
worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly
accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF
show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current
conditions.  Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late this weekend.

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 9:16am

Current track takes it right over the core of the warm Loop Current Eddy.

pad199207 · 27-08-2021 9:21am

Near Cayman

Looking at its track over those warm ocean anomalies GL, Irma feelings with this one

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 9:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117809460#Comment_117809460

It's currently over a cool Caribbean anomaly, but the next 24-36 hours will be interesting to watch.

Meteorite58 · 27-08-2021 2:51pm

Hurricane Hunters Recon mission have pushed up sustained wind speeds to 60 mph. Could be a hurricane shortly. Models showing Ida could be a Major Hurricane just before or at landfall , very high storm surge and rainfall of 8 to 16+ inches predicted.

NHC

There continues to be some southwesterly shear affecting Ida due to

the storm's location between an upper-level trough to the west and

an upper-level anticyclone to the east. Some decrease in the shear

is expected during the next 24 h, and that, combined with a moist

environment and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast

track, should allow steady to rapid strengthening until the cyclone

makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. The new intensity

forecast is slightly stronger than the previous forecast, and it now

calls for Ida to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt before landfall.

It should be noted that this intensity is lower than that forecast

by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the

Florida State Superensemble. After landfall, Ida should weaken as

it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys.

Based on the available guidance, there remains higher-than-normal

confidence that a significant hurricane will approach and impact the

Gulf coast during the weekend and early next week.

pad199207 · 27-08-2021 5:07pm

Organisation and intensification continues today. When it clears Cuba it’s going to be fascinating to watch.

Cat 4 not out of the question for Louisiana. Would be a real push for a Cat 5 if it were to occur.

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 6:30pm

It's now been upgraded to a hurricane based on latest recon data. Cat 4 definitely is on the cards.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 20.7N  82.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 22.2N  83.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA
 24H  28/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  29/0000Z 25.9N  87.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 27.6N  89.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 29.0N  90.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 30.3N  91.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/1200Z 33.3N  90.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1200Z 35.2N  87.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 7:41pm

Shite...

Kermit.de.frog · 27-08-2021 9:54pm

Now 80 mph, Cat 1. Anticipated 140 mph Cat 4 now at landfall according to latest NHC advisory

Know your hurricanes

Gaoth Laidir · 27-08-2021 11:32pm

18Z SHIPS LGEM has it at 127 knots 62 km from land in 48 hours. This will be a big one...

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  IDA         AL092021  08/27/21  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    70    80    89    98   106   112   121   115   111    97    84    74    66    61    58    57    55
V (KT) LAND       70    67    83    92   100   107   116    77    44    32    28    27    27    27    27    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       70    70    85    94   102   120   127    87    47    33    29    27    27    27    27    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    13    11     8     7    17     9    16    11    19    12    25    20    24    12    18    16
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     1     0    -3    -5     1    -5     5     1     1     3     0     3    -3     0     2     0
SHEAR DIR        216   202   233   249   245   288   263   268   267   267   263   262   257   280   277   319   348
SST (C)         29.5  29.7  29.9  29.8  30.0  30.2  30.7  31.3  32.0  31.6  30.9  30.8  29.9  29.6  29.5  28.9  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   162   165   169   167   171   172   171   170   170   171   171   170   167   162   160   150   156
ADJ. POT. INT.   154   156   159   155   157   157   159   167   170   171   156   151   136   133   132   123   127
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -52.1 -53.5 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.8   1.3   1.7   1.5   0.9   0.7   1.1   1.6   1.1   1.3   0.2   0.6   0.6   1.0   1.4   0.7   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     8     8     8     7     7     5     7     4     7     2     5     1     3     0     1
700-500 MB RH     64    66    66    65    67    69    73    69    74    67    70    55    47    37    33    39    45
MODEL VTX (KT)    17    18    18    19    21    23    29    27    27    24    20    18    14    12     9     8     7
850 MB ENV VOR    47    37    26    14    14    -9    -8   -39    -7   -43    34    14    63    31    45    17    16
200 MB DIV        86    48    49    57    26     7    41    41    79    56    51    24    10   -39   -32   -54   -35
700-850 TADV       8     7     0     2     4    13     6    10    16    15     9     0    -3    -5     0   -10    -8
LAND (KM)         98   -18   126   268   410   217    62   -43  -159  -277  -422  -506  -563  -461  -334  -200   -32
LAT (DEG N)     21.6  22.5  23.4  24.4  25.3  27.1  28.6  29.9  31.3  32.8  34.3  35.3  35.6 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     82.7  83.8  84.9  85.8  86.8  88.9  90.5  91.2  91.5  90.9  89.6  88.0  86.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    14    14    13    13    13    12     8     7     8     8     9     8     8     9    10     9     7
HEAT CONTENT      71    92   122    97   105   133    42    16     7     7     6     6     5     4     4     3     4

Gaoth Laidir · 28-08-2021 9:35am

Downgrade in model intensity this morning, though I reckon the 12Z will show an uptick again.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-08-2021 9:52am

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1431395556748898306?s=19

..

Itssoeasy · 28-08-2021 10:14am

It making landfall 16 years to the day since Katrina must be giving Louisiana officials flashbacks. There seems to be a genuine worry from meteorologists I follow on Twitter who are part of the big TV networks. The mayor of New Orleans said last night they don’t have time to implement a counter flow system on the highway system which isn’t great.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-08-2021 10:34am

Still 70 knots in the latest update but forecast to peak at 120 kts.

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Just after the last advisory, the convective structure of Ida got a
bit ragged, probably due to the residual effects of land
interaction with Cuba and a tongue of dry air that wrapped into the
eastern side of the circulation.  However, latest radar images from
Cuba show that the eye is becoming better defined, and satellite
imagery shows cooling of the cloud tops in the eyewall.  The
initial intensity has been held at 70 kt based on the latest trends
and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.  NOAA and Air Force
reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida
again starting around 12Z.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 315/14.  A subtropical 
ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift 
westward through the weekend, and this feature should continue to 
provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward 
across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 36-48 h.  The track 
guidance remains in good agreement that Ida will make landfall on 
the coast of southeastern or central Louisiana late Sunday or early 
Monday morning.  After landfall, Ida is expected to turn northward 
through Louisiana and western Mississippi at a slower forward speed 
as it moves around the western end of the ridge.  Recurvature into 
the westerlies and an east-northeastward motion are expected by the 
end of the forecast period.  The new forecast track is nudged 
slightly to the west after 36 h to keep it near the various 
consensus models, but this is not a significant change from the 
previous forecast.  Users are again reminded to not focus on the 
exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and 
rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Ida is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light
vertical shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures until it
makes landfall.  The only negative factor is the possibility that
dry air may try to entrain into the system and slow the expected
intensification.  The SHIPS and LGEM models are showing a little
less strengthening than previously.  However, the HWRF and HMON
models continue to forecast Ida to reach Category 4 intensity
before landfall.  The new intensity forecast will forecast a peak
intensity of 120 kt in best agreement with the HWRF and HMON, and
the pre-landfall part of the forecast is little changed from the
previous forecast.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due
to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear, and Ida
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves through
the Tennessee Valley.

As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion
of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is
largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical
storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore,
all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous
event need to be made today.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are ending over Cuba.
However, Ida will continue to bring periods of heavy rain across
western Cuba through today that may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi resulting in significant flash and riverine flooding
impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across
portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 24.0N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 25.4N  86.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 27.1N  88.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 28.6N  90.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 30.1N  91.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 60H  30/1800Z 31.6N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0600Z 33.2N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/0600Z 36.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0600Z 37.5N  82.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

pad199207 · 28-08-2021 10:35am

She’s off now

Meteorite58 · 28-08-2021 11:30am

Looks like there will be a well defined eyewall shortly. Incredible nerve and expertise displayed by the NHC. A bit less strengthening form SHIPS then earlier as stated by NHC but there seems to be high confidence of rapid intensification from the main hurricane models to become a Major Cat 4 Hurricane with peak winds of 120 kts forecast just before or at landfall. Only slight adjustments to track.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431552924237373440?s=20

NHC

Users are again reminded to not focus on the 
exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and 
rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-08-2021 11:44am

The 06Z SHIPS has a 12-hour step from 36-48 hours during which additional strengthening before landfall can occur. At 36 hours it's 104 kts and 72 km from land, moving at 15 kph, so about 4 hours before landfall. In any case, it looks like landfalling in a relatively unpopulated area of the swamps, unless an easterly shift takes it closer to New Orleans.

pad199207 · 28-08-2021 3:34pm

We have an eye now

Kermit.de.frog · 28-08-2021 3:55pm

There is little or no shear on the track. Upper level high pressure in place, perfect conditions. It doesn't get much more ideal. Be surprised if this didn't take off like a rocket strength wise in the next few hours.

Oneiric 3 · 28-08-2021 5:57pm

NAM Path.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-08-2021 7:09pm

It's 85 knots now in the latest update.

Meteorite58 · 28-08-2021 7:46pm

Reading there has been a little wobble to the right ( NE ). New Orleans wont want to see it coming any closer to it !

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431685548339511297?s=20

https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/1431671318328451074?s=20

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431679890714087425?s=20

Meteorite58 · 28-08-2021 7:55pm

Reports now from the US that Ida has become a Cat 2 with 100 mph max sustained winds with higher gusts, Min pressure 976 mb

National Weather Service

Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24hr and #Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast Sunday.