Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
2021 Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Season
Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
Larry is now 85 knots (Cat 2). Pressure 978 hPa.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
3 -
Currently a Cat 2 and forecast to become a Cat 4 in a couple of days and possibly touching Cat 5 before dropping back in strength to about a Cat 2 by +120hrs . NHS saying it is to become a very large Hurricane with a wide wind field and set to produce a large Ocean swell over the next week.
0 -
-
Advertisement
-
Up to 125 mph, 958 hPa in the latest update. Some strong convection is active in the southern eyewall, with a hint of mesovortices starting to rotate around the eye.
HU Larry - Band 8 at 16.8°N - 45.8°W - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR
1 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Tropical Storm Mindy has just formed but will make landfall in the Florida panhandle overnight.
Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt. The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes vertically shallow. Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 29.0N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
0 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
Cape Race seems to have had the highest gust of 144 kph as Larry was "racing" through at 41 knots. It should be extratropical by around now and dissipate in the next 24-36 hours.
We are now right on the climatological peak of the Atlantic season. So far it's been an active one, with 13 named, 5 hurricanes and 3 major, compared to the 1981-2020 averages for this stage of the season of 6.7, 3.0 and 1.3, respectively. ACE is currently 54% above average.
This time last year we had 18, 7 and 1.
1 -
-
-
-
-
Tropical Storm Nicholas has formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico and will slowly move up along the Mexico/Texas coast over the next few days. The exact track is uncertain at this stage, so small changes could have large differences in conditions on land. Wind probably not a factor but a fair amount of rain along the coast seems likely.
Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and very recently become better organized with a loose band of convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is located within an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus, and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS ensemble means. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday. 2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.5N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
2 -
-
Advertisement
-
Odette has formed off the east coast of the US this evening, though it has some non-tropical characteristics and seems to be already starting extratropical transition.
Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds. With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
0
Advertisement