Belarus force down Ryanair plane

political analyst

lawred2 wrote: »

and take the chance that the plane won't explode?

It would have been quicker to land at Vilnius than in Belarus. Even if there was a bomb, it could have exploded over Belarusian airspace anyway.

Lukashenko wouldn't have had the nerve to order the MiG pilot to shoot down the Ryanair flight that was only a minute or so away from NATO airspace.

lawred2

political analyst wrote: »

It would have been quicker to land at Vilnius than in Belarus. Even if there was a bomb, it could have exploded over Belarusian airspace anyway.

Lukashenko wouldn't have had the nerve to order the MiG pilot to shoot down the Ryanair flight that was only a minute or so away from NATO airspace.

a pilot is never taking such chances

they will do what they are instructed to do

Sam Russell

political analyst wrote: »

It would have been quicker to land at Vilnius than in Belarus. Even if there was a bomb, it could have exploded over Belarusian airspace anyway.

Lukashenko wouldn't have had the nerve to order the MiG pilot to shoot down the Ryanair flight that was only a minute or so away from NATO airspace.

If the bomb was real and the intention was to explode it, there was no point in diverting. The 9-11 hijacks point to that conclusion.

I do not know how much communication pilots have while flying in those circumstances. Can they phone home?

political analyst

lawred2 wrote: »

a pilot is never taking such chances

they will do what they are instructed to do

Point taken.

Indeed, the pilot had to consider the lives of all on board. Protasevich, as he was being led away, expressed fear that he would be executed, although he could ....

https://news.sky.com/story/ryanair-plane-diverted-so-blogger-could-be-arrested-who-is-roman-protasevich-12315440

.....face up to 15 years in jail if convicted.

Quin_Dub

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why didn't the pilot just tell them to feck off and say that he/she was landing in Lithuania as per their job* ?

*Not a real opinion, I know nothing about aircraft or the procedures in these sorts of circumstances, but it's likely the type of reply you will get around here.

lawred2 wrote: »

and take the chance that the plane won't explode?

The key question about the alleged Bomb threat is why they didn't just land in Lithuania as planned given that they were considerably closer to there than Minsk.

If the concern was about "safety" then letting them continue on to the closer airport was the best option.

Obviously the Pilot doesn't really have a whole lot of options when there's a fighter jet coming alongside etc. , but the whole cover story just falls apart with even a cursory review.

rdhma

No reports I have seen indicate that the pilots knew the diversion was a ruse by the Belarusians. How could they?
Pilots are required to follow ATC directions if they want to keep their license.
The presence of a MiG-29 escort would concentrate the mind also.

political analyst

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The key question about the alleged Bomb threat is why they didn't just land in Lithuania as planned given that they were considerably closer to there than Minsk.

If the concern was about "safety" then letting them continue on to the closer airport was the best option.

Obviously the Pilot doesn't really have a whole lot of options when there's a fighter jet coming alongside etc. , but the whole cover story just falls apart with even a cursory review.

More to the point, why did Protasevich take a seat on the flight in the first place?!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57224452

Franak Viacorka, a friend and associate of Mr Protasevich, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the journalist "already felt something bad" in Athens airport because he had seen that someone was following him.

Some passengers described seeing Mr Protasevich looking nervous as the incident unfolded. "He just turned to people and said he was facing the death penalty," Monika Simkiene told AFP news agency.

Another passenger told Reuters news agency that Mr Protasevich had opened an overhead locker after they were told of the diversion, pulled out a laptop and a phone and gave them to a female companion.

Mr Viacorka said the woman, who was Mr Protasevich's girlfriend and was arrested with him, was "not involved at all in anything, but they will be pursuing her because she's a close person to him". She has been named as Sofia Sapega, a Russian citizen.

If in doubt, get out!

He has put his girlfriend, as well as himself, in harm's way.

Boarding a flight that goes through Belarusian airspace was his equivalent of walking into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Even if there hadn't been a bomb alert, he should have considered the possibility of being poisoned with a view to making him ill to provide a pretext for an emergency landing in Belarus, i.e. the footage of Navalny crying in pain after boarding an internal Russian flight.

lawrencesummers

Russia keeps the lights on in Europe.


The EU leaders are now in a position where they have to do nothing to the Russian province of Belarus while appearing to do something to the Russian province of Belarus

[Deleted User]

political analyst wrote: »

More to the point, why did Protasevich take a seat on the flight in the first place?!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57224452



If in doubt, get out!

He has put his girlfriend, as well as himself, in harm's way.

Boarding a flight that goes through Belarusian airspace was his equivalent of walking into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Even if there hadn't been a bomb alert, he should have considered the possibility of being poisoned with a view to making him ill to provide a pretext for an emergency landing in Belarus, i.e. the footage of Navalny crying in pain after boarding an internal Russian flight.

Since the opposition leader who is effectively on the run took the same flight a week ago, the possibility of this occurring simply didn't cross anyone's minds. Not even the airlines viewed there to be such a risk. So ya, I don't think you can blame the victim here..

political analyst

protonmike wrote: »

Since the opposition leader who is effectively on the run took the same flight a week ago, the possibility of this occurring simply didn't cross anyone's minds. Not even the airlines viewed there to be such a risk. So ya, I don't think you can blame the victim here..

But what if a technical problem with the aircraft had materialised in Belarusian airspace and then the pilot had to make an emergency landing? It happens even with the most advanced aircraft.

lawred2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The key question about the alleged Bomb threat is why they didn't just land in Lithuania as planned given that they were considerably closer to there than Minsk.

If the concern was about "safety" then letting them continue on to the closer airport was the best option.

Obviously the Pilot doesn't really have a whole lot of options when there's a fighter jet coming alongside etc. , but the whole cover story just falls apart with even a cursory review.

whose cover story?

blackwhite

purplepanda wrote: »

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary was totally against a small passenger surcharge towards an Irish Air Corps, defence patrol for aviation security. Probably worried about vast profit margins.

Then he squeals when one of his planes gets diverted by the Belarus Air Force, what a hypocrite. Demanding EU action from nations who actually properly fund their military forces!

This is the same Ryanair company that O'Leary is more than happy to take billions from the nation to ensure his survival during the current Covid19 crisis.

What exactly is the Irish Air Corps going to do when a fighter jet intercepts a passenger aircraft in Belarussian airspace?

Quin_Dub

lawred2 wrote: »

whose cover story?

The story line from Belarus that they were responding to a "security threat"

lawred2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The story line from Belarus that they were responding to a "security threat"

ah yeah but that's irrelevant in the context of the decisions a pilot has to make

victor8600

I hope that the response from the EU will be more effective than the usual words of "strong condemnation". You may think that Lukashenko is a two-bit dictator from an insignificant country. But the situation is closely watched in Moscow. Belarus is a test bed for repressive tactics that are rolled out in Russia. If the EU lets this slide, next thing you will see planes going over Russian territory being forcefully landed to extract any dissidents.

prawnsambo

Belarus has now expelled all Latvian diplomats and administration. Given 48 hours to leave. Latvia banned all flights in and out of Belarus. UK has also banned Belavia (Belarussian flag carrier) from landing in the UK and advised all British aircraft to avoid Belarussian air space.

signostic

prawnsambo wrote: »

Belarus has now expelled all Latvian diplomats and administration. Given 48 hours to leave. Latvia banned all flights in and out of Belarus. UK has also banned Belavia (Belarussian flag carrier) from landing in the UK and advised all British aircraft to avoid Belarussian air space.

Belorussian ambassador told to pack his bags and be gone in 24 hours, all other staff have 48 hours, decisive move by Latvia, does Belorussia have a presence in Ireland?
__________________

Amirani

signostic wrote: »

Belorussian ambassador told to pack his bags and be gone in 24 hours, all other staff have 48 hours, decisive move by Latvia, does Belorussia have a presence in Ireland?
__________________

Nope, don't believe they do.

whisky_galore

Had to laugh at our own mice that roared (Coveney and Martin) in chorus with that bigger roaring mouse (EU)

A few sanctions and that'll be about it, back to business as usual.

Calahonda52

victor8600 wrote: »

I hope that the response from the EU will be more effective than the usual words of "strong condemnation". You may think that Lukashenko is a two-bit dictator from an insignificant country. But the situation is closely watched in Moscow. Belarus is a test bed for repressive tactics that are rolled out in Russia. If the EU lets this slide, next thing you will see planes going over Russian territory being forcefully landed to extract any dissidents.

If the EU lets this slide, next thing you will see planes going over EU territory being forcefully landed to extract any dissidents

prawnsambo

whisky_galore wrote: »

Had to laugh at our own mice that roared (Coveney and Martin) in chorus with that bigger roaring mouse (EU)

A few sanctions and that'll be about it, back to business as usual.

EuCO meeting told to leave their phones outside. Looks like serious intent to me.

Itssoeasy

prawnsambo wrote: »

EuCO meeting told to leave their phones outside. Looks like serious intent to me.

Unless there’s some concrete actions by the EU then being told to leave their phones outside means nothing.

Beechwoodspark

prawnsambo wrote: »

EuCO meeting told to leave their phones outside. Looks like serious intent to me.

Wasn’t that standard during the brexit talks

Beechwoodspark

whisky_galore wrote: »

Had to laugh at our own mice that roared (Coveney and Martin) in chorus with that bigger roaring mouse (EU)

A few sanctions and that'll be about it, back to business as usual.

Simon was fairly pathetic on morning ireland

The Russians are having some laugh

whisky_galore

prawnsambo wrote: »

EuCO meeting told to leave their phones outside. Looks like serious intent to me.

Pah.
Cutting off the supply of French wine and Kerrygold.

political analyst

Calahonda52 wrote: »

If the EU lets this slide, next thing you will see planes going over EU territory being forcefully landed to extract any dissidents

The Russian and Belarusian air forces wouldn't have the nerve to do that inside NATO airspace, i.e. the Baltic states, Poland.

Quin_Dub

whisky_galore wrote: »

Pah.
Cutting off the supply of French wine and Kerrygold.

##Mod Note##

Up the standards please.

Thank you

FGR

The sad thing is - sanctions are all well and good but the original problem hasn't been resolved. Belarus and Russia won't really care about the impact of said sanctions as they know that they still achieved what they desired i.e. got their hands on a dissident. What's to stop them from doing it again?

I'm not proposing sending in special forces to retrieve the man but at the same time does Russia really care about the alternatives? They know that even if the EU threatened serious intervention that they'd simply switch off the oil and gaslines and that's us crippled.

prawnsambo

FGR wrote: »

The sad thing is - sanctions are all well and good but the original problem hasn't been resolved. Belarus and Russia won't really care about the impact of said sanctions as they know that they still achieved what they desired i.e. got their hands on a dissident. What's to stop them from doing it again?

I'm not proposing sending in special forces to retrieve the man but at the same time does Russia really care about the alternatives? They know that even if the EU threatened serious intervention that they'd simply switch off the oil and gaslines and that's us crippled.

Targeted sanctions against named individuals hurt. Especially in a kleptocratic regime. All that lovely money salted away outside the country is suddenly out of reach. The flight sanctions will also hurt.

political analyst

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57239521

The journalist faces charges of organising mass unrest after covering the events of the 2020 presidential election from abroad. The offence carries a possible jail term of up to 15 years. However, Mr Protasevich tweeted a KGB list of terrorism suspects last year, adding that he had been placed on it alongside Islamic State jihadists.

As far as I know, nobody in Belarus under Lukashenko's rule has been executed for a non-fatal offence.