Kusama who's bullish

Michael_Res1

Kusama, complex and quite brilliant and I'm not talking about the artist of the same name, has just formed the most amazing bull flag I've ever seen.

Wondering if there is anyone here who follows dot/kusama and if anyone has any thoughts to share on the parachain auctions about to happen. Possibility for some crazy gains.

I'm just getting into crypto and have begun to follow this project. Gavin Woods and team look very competent. Exciting times ahead it seems.

Bob24

Polkadot looks like a solid project to me a well, and in a bull run I think DOT and KSM will both do well.

Having said that, as far as I understand Kusama is basically a test environment for Polkadot. I am not quite sold on this from an investment perspective - i.e. why owning a testbed token rather than the actual production token?

Open to counter arguments though ... and price action could prove me completely wrong though!

HGVRHKYY

Bob24 wrote: »

Polkadot looks like a solid project to me a well, and in a bull run I think DOT and KSM will both do well.

Having said that, as far as I understand Kusama is basically a test environment for Polkadot. I am not quite sold on this from an investment perspective - i.e. why owning a testbed token rather than the actual production token?

Open to counter arguments though ... and price action could prove me completely wrong though!

Parachain auctions is why people are excited about KSM

cryptcrapto

I am bullish on both KSM & DOT. Exciting times for both coming up.

Bob24

HGVRHKYY wrote: »

Parachain auctions is why people are excited about KSM

Polkadot has the same concept though (although with a different timing), or am I mistaken?

justtrying312

ksm looks like it's going to $1000 real quick imo

BorneTobyWilde

Why didn't you say that when it was at a fiver last june/

HGVRHKYY

Bob24 wrote: »

Polkadot has the same concept though (although with a different timing), or am I mistaken?

With KSM you actually get to keep your KSM though, so you'd essentially be getting free cryptos from using it, not sure if DOT is the same but happy days if it is

It does seem complicated though

Michael_Res1

On the recent dip i decided to buy some ksm, initially it was a speculative short term move. However, as mentioned previously, I'm excited by this project and the team behind it, and i can learn about crypto with a vested interest in this particular project. so the dilemma i face is to invest my ksm for two years without selling. Caveat being likely in two years we will be in a bear market and it is very difficult to pick a winner in the parachain auctions. alot of research to be done. On this just from my basic knowledge, a defi project or a decentralised exchange project might be a good pick, however which one is the trouble. These are the list of projects bidding for a parachain.

https://polkaproject.com/#/

The alternative is to be a degenerate ��and sell and possibly triple my money in the next few weeks.

cryptcrapto

Michael_Res1 wrote: »

On the recent dip i decided to buy some ksm, initially it was a speculative short term move. However, as mentioned previously, I'm excited by this project and the team behind it, and i can learn about crypto with a vested interest in this particular project. so the dilemma i face is to invest my ksm for two years without selling. Caveat being likely in two years we will be in a bear market and it is very difficult to pick a winner in the parachain auctions. alot of research to be done. On this just from my basic knowledge, a defi project or a decentralised exchange project might be a good pick, however which one is the trouble. These are the list of projects bidding for a parachain.



The alternative is to be a degenerate ��and sell and possibly triple my money in the next few weeks.

If you believe that KSM & DOT have a long-term future then I'd be holding on to them. One strategy you could consider is locking up some of your tokens in crowdloan projects while keeping the remaining staking at 12%. If they start pumping after the Parachain auctions are up and running then you can sell some or all of the tokens that you don't have locked up in the crowdloans. If you make a profit on that alone then you're basically free-rolling with regard to the staked tokens.

Worst case scenario - the projects finish after the market is crashed and neither DOT/KSM or the reward tokens are worth much. If you've done the above then you're still not out of pocket. Also worth noting at that point though there's no point in selling so you can just get back on the merry go round and loan them again. Eventually the bull market will be back and hopefully the value of your tokens will too.

With quality tokens hodling is usually better than trying to time the market. If you can stake or get free tokens while you hodl then all the better.

suave.4u

binance have very good KSM staking rates if u want to go down that route

cryptcrapto

Looks like the first auction will be starting on the 15th. KSM has already jumped on the news in the past hour

cryptcrapto

Crowdloans have begun in anticipation of the first auction next week.

4 Projects are available so far to contribute to:

• Karura
• Shiden
• Crust Shadow
• Moonriver

Karura (a DE-Fi project) already has >142,000 KSM loaned to it and will likely be the favourite to win the first auction. For each KSM that you loan to that project you will get back 12 of its native token, KAR. You get 30% of the KAR up front and the rest, I believe, at the end of the 48 week loan period, along with your KSM.

What those KAR will actually be worth in USD is anyone's guess at this stage. By loaning your KSM you cannot stake them so you're losing out on the 12% return there and also, of course, you cannot sell your KSM, so all of that should be factored in.

cryptcrapto

Nice dashboard here showing the current progress of the crowdloans so far. It will also show the successful auction results when the time comes.

KSM price has been motoring along nicely over the past 2 days going from $365 -> $532 although it has pulled back slightly now to $507.

Michael_Res1

cryptcrapto wrote: »

Crowdloans have begun in anticipation of the first auction next week.

4 Projects are available so far to contribute to:

• Karura
• Shiden
• Crust Shadow
• Moonriver

Karura (a DE-Fi project) already has >142,000 KSM loaned to it and will likely be the favourite to win the first auction. For each KSM that you loan to that project you will get back 12 of its native token, KAR. You get 30% of the KAR up front and the rest, I believe, at the end of the 48 week loan period, along with your KSM.

What those KAR will actually be worth in USD is anyone's guess at this stage. By loaning your KSM you cannot stake them so you're losing out on the 12% return there and also, of course, you cannot sell your KSM, so all of that should be factored in.

So, I had a look at the Karura whitepaper and brief look over the team, a big team to support it at that . One concern I have is the supply is 100,000,000. You'd need a price for KAR of about 10 dollars at least to outperform the returns of staking of KSM over two years.

In contrast, the ksm total supply is 9,651,217. Everybody on youtube, from the referral link boys to the legit is suggesting at least a ksm price in excess of 1000, which makes sense given the limit supply. Is the smart move to sell ksm in the short term and buy dot and stake dot.

cryptcrapto

With regard to staking vs loaning, I don't think anybody really knows. With that uncertainty in mind I think the best approach is to diversify and that is what I intend on doing myself. I will be leaving some of my KSM staking and I will be loaning some others.

How are you arriving at the 2 year period? The lockup period for Karuna is 48 weeks, which is the maximum as far as I can tell. Based on that I figure that KAR tokens would need to be roughly $3.50 (tree fiddy) to offset the opportunity cost of not staking those KSM tokens.

I think buying DOT now is definitely a smart move too. Once the first successful auction happens with KSM then I believe they will start with DOT auctions. We will likely then see the same movement in prices in DOT that we have seen with KSM in the past 48 hours.

Personally I'm an advocate for hodling both DOT & KSM. Trying to time the market for short-term gains is particularly treacherous these days.

Jackben75

Agreed brilliant projects. I am big on Dot and Phala myself. Think they will be huge, particularly Dot. Good luck

Michael_Res1

cryptcrapto wrote: »

With regard to staking vs loaning, I don't think anybody really knows. With that uncertainty in mind I think the best approach is to diversify and that is what I intend on doing myself. I will be leaving some of my KSM staking and I will be loaning some others.

How are you arriving at the 2 year period? The lockup period for Karuna is 48 weeks, which is the maximum as far as I can tell. Based on that I figure that KAR tokens would need to be roughly $3.50 (tree fiddy) to offset the opportunity cost of not staking those KSM tokens.

I think buying DOT now is definitely a smart move too. Once the first successful auction happens with KSM then I believe they will start with DOT auctions. We will likely then see the same movement in prices in DOT that we have seen with KSM in the past 48 hours.

Personally I'm an advocate for hodling both DOT & KSM. Trying to time the market for short-term gains is particularly treacherous these days.

Awesome. I've sent some ksm to my Polkadot.js extension wallet. There is an Early bird offer of an additional 10% for Karura that ends in a day. I've sent ksm through their website. i'll dca into dot over the coming months I think.

langer91

Plasm is the one to target imo - will be locking dot for it

Michael_Res1

Some Moon math porn for karura, not enough to retire but hey lol

https://twitter.com/saurabh618/status/1403794595696111621

cryptcrapto

The first KSM parachain auction has just begun. It has a randomised, unknown end point which could be as soon as 21 hours time or as much as a week from now.

Karura currently has 362.8k KSM committed in crowdloans, compared to Moonriver in second place with 82.6k KSM, so on that basis I presume it's a formality that Karura will win this. Moonriver will well then be well placed to win next week's auction.

Michael_Res1

An interesting observation in the lead up to the parachain auctions was the dot to kusama ratio. At one point stage it was about 22:1 in favour of Ksm. It's now down to 15:1. You could have been yoyo inng in and out of dot and ksm dependent on the ratio and it would have been profitable.

Some youtubers are speculating ksm price will increase due to alot of it being staked or locked up in the crowd loan and its low supply. However, I'm not so sure, I think the value of the auctions have been priced into ksm already. So The fall in value of ksm will transfer to the tokens as a result. Very smart Gavin Woods

cryptcrapto

Michael_Res1 wrote: »

So The fall in value of ksm will transfer to the tokens as a result. Very smart Gavin Woods

Interesting theory. I guess we'll find out next week when the first auction ends, Karuna gets the Parachain and 30% of the KAR gets given back and ends up floating on exchanges giving us a price.

cryptcrapto

KSM is down more than any cryptio in the top 40 in the past week and I am struggling to see why that is.

• The first parachain auction appears to be running smoothly.
• There is already a pipeline of new projects lined up for the subsequent auctions.
• Over 8% of all KSM has been committed to crowdloans. This increases scarcity of the remaining tokens.

The most obvious cause is something negative to do with the auctions but I cannot see what that is.

Michael_Res1

Looking at the KSM /DOT ratio on tradingview, I think Ksm has a good bit more to drop relative to DOT. Clearly the auctions were factored into the price.

Looks like speculators are selling heavily.

Jackben75

cryptcrapto wrote: »

KSM is down more than any cryptio in the top 40 in the past week and I am struggling to see why that is.

• The first parachain auction appears to be running smoothly.
• There is already a pipeline of new projects lined up for the subsequent auctions.
• Over 8% of all KSM has been committed to crowdloans. This increases scarcity of the remaining tokens.

The most obvious cause is something negative to do with the auctions but I cannot see what that is.

from what i am hearing, the auctions are pissing off a few of the projects involved, stating it is one sided and people unwilling to get involved due to the ksm price etc etc. Who knows though, still think Dot is the one to invest in of the 2 or invest in both. Dot will be top 3 sooner or later though

cryptcrapto

As expected, Karuna has won the first auction. It is being upgraded to a Parachain now. After that those who loaned KSM to it via the crowdloan should receive 30% of their KAR tokens. Pretty terrible market conditions for this to be happening in but it should be interesting to see what price they end up at when they float.

Michael_Res1

Anyone have any idea when the Karura token is going to list and it what exchange? I suspect it will be Kracken.

itchyfinger

Horse, stable, bolted and door comes to mind when thinking about Kusama

Michael_Res1

You can say that about the whole market at this point in time.

Michael_Res1

Karura $9, I got 23 Karura for every Kusama I contributed to the crowdloan. That means $207 for each kusuma, vested though. Haven't seen return like that in awhile. Anyone taking part in the kusama parachain auctions and who's accumulating dot?