The Delta variant

Jinglejangle69

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

My point exactly.

Hospitalisations are bottomed out.

The most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Young people rarely end up in hospital.

There won't be an overwhelming of the hospitals.

I still think its important to get to those younger groups as soon as possible.

It will be great peace of mind to themselves and to their families.

Its also helps all in society indirectly.

The quicker a country can get to an Israel type situation the better for all its citizens (85% of adult population double dosed).

astrofool

tom1ie wrote: »

I’ve asked this on two separate occasions here and haven’t got a straight answer.

As above if vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated why should it matter if we have a high caseload?
It shouldn’t translate into high hospital cases as the most at risk are vaccinated.

Are we saying delta is more deadly (I don’t at spreading I mean at harming an individual), than the original?

Because 1% of 10,000 is the same as 10% of 1,000, i.e. while the risk is lower per person, if the infected number goes up, the hospitals quickly get overwhelmed.

landofthetree

tom1ie wrote: »

I’ve asked this on two separate occasions here and haven’t got a straight answer.

As above if vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated why should it matter if we have a high caseload?
It shouldn’t translate into high hospital cases as the most at risk are vaccinated.

Are we saying delta is more deadly (I don’t at spreading I mean at harming an individual), than the original?

We need as few cases as possible to stop a variant emerging in Ireland.

But if this is the case then we have to ban travel indefinitely.

nocoverart

Read the last couple of pages on this thread and I’m more confused than ever. I wish this thing would just fook off now, its a terrible pain in the A-hole!

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Of course.

Pfzier is the best vaccine for europe in the middle of a pandemic because:

1. It works very quickly on the body.
2. It has a relatively good safety profile.

Every vaccine has pro's and con's.

Its great that we have so many.

Jesus, you can’t help yourself can you.

The best vaccine is the one you can get now.

hmmm

tom1ie wrote: »

As above if vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated why should it matter if we have a high caseload?
It shouldn’t translate into high hospital cases as the most at risk are vaccinated.

Are we saying delta is more deadly (I don’t at spreading I mean at harming an individual), than the original?

Everyone is "vulnerable" to some extent. Even a certain number of healthy younger people are going to end up in hospital, and some of them will die.

The modelling is showing that Delta is more infectious, and more likely to put people into hospital. I'm not sure whether there is data showing it leads to more deaths. There is enough younger and unvaccinated people to create the risk of a new wave which might overwhelm hospitals.

If Delta had arrived a year ago we'd have been in big trouble - it may not be entirely controllable, even with lockdowns. The good news is obviously that the vaccines offer good protection, and we are nearly there in getting large numbers vaccinated.

Delta is a blip, but one we need to control and can't ignore. I think it's likely we will have to delay indoor reopening a few weeks to get more people vaccinated, but that depends on the figures over the next while.

Tyrone212

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is it though?

If you have no underlying conditions, one dose is probably close to 100% probability of keeping you out of hospital. In the first instance your not expecting it to put you in hospital (as you are a normal healthy person), but this gives your body a head start to fighting the infection properly from day 1 (virus is not novel to your immune system). The second dose is to strengthen and mature your immunity.

Basic words don't translate well on here it seems. He said 1 dose completely prevented all hospitalisation and death and ensured only minor symptoms. AstraZeneca one dose cuts the risk of hospitalisation by 71%. 71% isn't 100%. Its so simple to understand,this is bizarre.

tom1ie

astrofool wrote: »

Because 1% of 10,000 is the same as 10% of 1,000, i.e. while the risk is lower per person, if the infected number goes up, the hospitals quickly get overwhelmed.

How many hospital cases did we get in the under 39’s in the first three waves as a percentage of overall cases?

The virus effected the elderly and vulnerable predominantly.

I’m not saying there won’t be hospitalisations in the under 39s but saying the health service could be overwhelmed is a bit of a stretch no?
Unless everyone thinks the delta variant is a lot more harming to the individual than the wuhan variant?

tom1ie

hmmm wrote: »

Everyone is "vulnerable" to some extent. Even a certain number of healthy younger people are going to end up in hospital, and some of them will die.

The modelling is showing that Delta is more infectious, and more likely to put people into hospital. I'm not sure whether there is data showing it leads to more deaths. There is enough younger and unvaccinated people to create the risk of a new wave which might overwhelm hospitals.

If Delta had arrived a year ago we'd have been in big trouble - it may not be entirely controllable, even with lockdowns. The good news is obviously that the vaccines offer good protection, and we are nearly there in getting large numbers vaccinated.

Delta is a blip, but one we need to control and can't ignore. I think it's likely we will have to delay indoor reopening a few weeks to get more people vaccinated, but that depends on the figures over the next while.

Ok.
With that logic though could we be in trouble with the vaccine indifference in the under 39 age group (mostly the younger side of this age group)

Purely anecdotal but I know many family and friends that think they don’t need the vaccine or just won’t take it for the reasons I’ve stated in my previous posts (vulnerable and elder are now vaccinated).

tom1ie

tom1ie wrote: »

How many hospital cases did we get in the under 39’s in the first three waves as a percentage of overall cases?

The virus effected the elderly and vulnerable predominantly.

I’m not saying there won’t be hospitalisations in the under 39s but saying the health service could be overwhelmed is a bit of a stretch no?
Unless everyone thinks the delta variant is a lot more harming to the individual than the wuhan variant?

The answer is we don't know
Abundance of caution is being used
But the direction of travel in the next month or 2 is excellent
It should certainly see Az doses completed and with somewhere around another million fully vaccinated and at least a 100k a week getting first jabs we could easily have 80 to 90% covered above 90% for hospitalisations

hmmm

tom1ie wrote: »

Unless everyone thinks the delta variant is a lot more harming to the individual than the wuhan variant?

It potentially is.

Some scientists estimate it doubles the number of hospitalisations. It hasn't been around long enough in the West to get a good understanding of mortality, but it doesn't look good.

The above is enough for an RTE journalist to go running to their variant headline generator, but the message about vaccines needs to be repeated. We just have to delay the variant long enough to give as many people as possible the protection of a vaccine.

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

Jesus, you can’t help yourself can you.

The best vaccine is the one you can get now.

Your preaching to converted.

I took AZ for the reasons you spoke above.

I'm sure you will apologise to me in due course.

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

I think it's likely we will have to delay indoor reopening a few weeks to get more people vaccinated, but that depends on the figures over the next while.

Current government thinking is that reopening will not be delayed it seems

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-ministers-confident-delta-variant-will-not-derail-reopening-plans-1.4593130?mode=amp

Government plans for a wider reopening of the economy and society from July 5th will not be affected by the likelihood that the highly transmissible Covid-19 Delta variant will spread in Ireland, Cabinet members believe.

Senior Government sources dismissed the suggestion that the variant might affect the schedule for the reopening of society, after British prime minister Boris Johnson announced a postponement of the last stages of reopening in England.



The sources based this on the fact that the UK is at a different stage of reopening than Ireland; and because the period between the first and second AstraZeneca doses is much longer in the UK than in the State, where it has been reduced to eight weeks from 12 weeks. The second dose of AstraZeneca is more than 80 per cent effective against the variant.

“The narrative that our reopening will slow down is not true,” one Minister said privately. “I don’t believe Delta will affect our reopening plan. Indeed, the plan to move ahead with the next stage on July 5th still remains intact.”

PTH2009

What are the chances of no vaccine resistant variant ever arriving ?

Jinglejangle69

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Basic words don't translate well on here it seems. He said 1 dose completely prevented all hospitalisation and death and ensured only minor symptoms. AstraZeneca one dose cuts the risk of hospitalisation by 71%. 71% isn't 100%. Its so simple to understand,this is bizarre.

I think you're the one finding it hard to understand.

It's 71% chance of catching it.

"The Pfizer-BioNTech jab was found to provide 79% protection against infection from the Delta variant, compared with 92% against the Alpha strain, In community cases at least two weeks after the second dose.


"PM urges caution as COVID cases rise
The Oxford-AstraZeneca jab offered 60% protection against infection with the Delta variant - compared with 73% for the Alpha variant.

average_runner

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I think you're the one finding it hard to understand.

It's 71% chance of catching it.

Image shows the percentages

Jinglejangle69

average_runner wrote: »

Image shows the percentages

Yes effectiveness against infection.

Not hospitalisations.

Tyrone212

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I think you're the one finding it hard to understand.

It's 71% chance of catching it.

"The Pfizer-BioNTech jab was found to provide 79% protection against infection from the Delta variant, compared with 92% against the Alpha strain, In community cases at least two weeks after the second dose.


"PM urges caution as COVID cases rise
The Oxford-AstraZeneca jab offered 60% protection against infection with the Delta variant - compared with 73% for the Alpha variant.

Seriously man. Go back a couple of pages to the tweet which states one dose of AstraZeneca cuts the risk of hospitalisation by 71% to which you said

"But after one dose it just means they may get it with mild symptoms but won't end up in hospital or dying.

This is the fact most people are unaware of.

They are still protected against serious illness"

Most 60 year olds in ireland have 1 shot of AstraZeneca. I'm not on about Pfizer or when people have been fully vaccinated. Even then its not 100% effective at preventing hospitalisation as you state is the outcome after 1 dose. My god.

GeorgeBailey

hmmm wrote: »

I think it's likely we will have to delay indoor reopening a few weeks to get more people vaccinated, but that depends on the figures over the next while.

If they are considering delaying indoor opening they'll need to start flying kites about it pretty soon. It'll be hard enough to sell now. But the longer they wait on pulling the rug on it the more restaurant and pub owners will be (rightly) p!ssed off.

hmmm

Stheno wrote: »

Current government thinking is that reopening will not be delayed it seems

Is the UK 2-dose effectiveness data based on a 12 week gap?

I don't believe I've seen data on an 8 week gap. If I remember correctly, the Astra Zeneca vaccine worked better the longer the gap.

The UK scientists have been superb throughout, even if the politicians ignored them. If they've convinced Boris to delay reopening at huge cost, I'd be careful about us promising anything.

The HorsesMouth

hmmm wrote: »

It potentially is.

Some scientists estimate it doubles the number of hospitalisations. It hasn't been around long enough in the West to get a good understanding of mortality, but it doesn't look good.

The above is enough for an RTE journalist to go running to their variant headline generator, but the message about vaccines needs to be repeated. We just have to delay the variant long enough to give as many people as possible the protection of a vaccine.

Highly doubt this will be the case.
We are the last country in Europe not to have indoor dining open.

Big difference between the UK postponing the complete removal of all restrictions for 4 weeks compared to us with our indoor dining/6 at a table/105 minute rules.

GeorgeBailey

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

If they are considering delaying indoor opening they'll need to start flying kites about it pretty soon. It'll be hard enough to sell now. But the longer they wait on pulling the rug on it the more restaurant and pub owners will be (rightly) p!ssed off.

They can operate outside.

They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also.

My view is indoor pubs restaurants wont open in ireland until there is a sort of herd immunity level in UK and Ireland (85% of adult population double vaccinated). No way Tony will advocate that after Alpha spread at Christmas. Delta spread in ireland would definitely be sped up by opening indoor pubs and restaurants. He didnt know that at Christmas but he knows it now. This is about harm reduction now. Let people socialise but sensibly and outdoors if at all possible until every has the opportunity of a vaccine.

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

Is the UK 2-dose effectiveness data based on a 12 week gap?

I don't believe I've seen data on an 8 week gap. If I remember correctly, the Astra Zeneca vaccine worked better the longer the gap.

The UK scientists have been superb throughout, even if the politicians ignored them. If they've convinced Boris to delay reopening at huge cost, I'd be careful about us promising anything.

It was two weeks after 2nd doses for both vaccines in the study: no mention i could see of length between doses

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They can operate outside.

They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also.

My view is indoor pubs restaurants wont open in ireland until there is a sort of herd immunity level in UK and Ireland (85% of adult population double vaccinated). No way Tony will advocate that after Alpha spread at Christmas. Delta spread in ireland would definitely be sped up by opening indoor pubs and restaurants. He didnt know that at Christmas but he knows it now. This is about harm reduction now. Let people socialise but sensibly and outdoors if at all possible until every has the opportunity of a vaccine.

I don't think you get that sensible outdoor socialising is not something a large minority of people will comply with

Keeping restaurants and bars shut or outdoor only will simply drive people to socialise at home

hmmm

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Highly doubt this will be the case.
We are the last country in Europe not to have indoor dining open.

Big difference between the UK postponing the complete removal of all restrictions for 4 weeks compared to us with our indoor dining/6 at a table/105 minute rules.

The way I see it this is a carbon copy almost of December. There is a new strain circulating in the UK (and inevitably in Ireland) which most of the rest of Europe does not have (or is at very low levels). There are no comparisons between these islands and what Europe is doing.

We know this thing will spread explosively indoors. We know this. We're going to have lots of UK tourists over here shortly, and the quarantine requirements were widely ignored in December and will be again.

So in order to reopen safely we need to get infections down to a really low level, or we need wide vaccination coverage. The second one will happen but it will take a few weeks longer than previously thought (perhaps 4 weeks), and the first one is up for debate.

I'd lift all restrictions on outdoors activities however. We must know by now that outdoors is not risk-free, but it won't lead to widespread transmission.

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

They can operate outside.

They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also.

My view is indoor pubs restaurants wont open in ireland until there is a sort of herd immunity level in UK and Ireland (85% of adult population double vaccinated). No way Tony will advocate that after Alpha spread at Christmas. Delta spread in ireland would definitely be sped up by opening indoor pubs and restaurants. He didnt know that at Christmas but he knows it now. This is about harm reduction now. Let people socialise but sensibly and outdoors if at all possible until every has the opportunity of a vaccine.

Yes. While opening indoor drinking and dining is important for the hospitality industry and desirable for so many here, we have seen where it takes a very low second place now to prevention of spread .
We can continue with outdoor for another few weeks to ensure that this variant doesn't get a chance to take hold .
Having said that , I do think that cases of the variant are so low and controlled here, it is not the same situation as UK , just will affect our opening of the CTA .
If they extend the quarantine to 10 days instead of five between tests from UK travel it will keep a lid on further spread over here hopefully .

screamer

Stheno wrote: »

Current government thinking is that reopening will not be delayed it seems

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-ministers-confident-delta-variant-will-not-derail-reopening-plans-1.4593130?mode=amp

I don’t put much faith in what they believe. This is the same government who had to extend pup payment timelines as they believed COVID-19 would dwindle to such an extent in February that we could reopen everything and the payment wouldn’t be needed!!! Ha ha in the middle of flu season. You couldn’t make it up.

GeorgeBailey

Woody79 wrote: »

They can operate outside.

They dont have to sell anything to anyone. That statement is so 2020. Public can tolerate alot more than you think and what most of us thought last year also.

I'm not talking about the public. I'm talking about the businesses that are preparing and hiring staff based on opening indoor dining/drinking. I don't think it's in any way unreasonable to suggest that the sooner they are informed this is under serious threat the better.

As for the blanket "they can operate outside", what about the many who can't?

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

The way I see it this is a carbon copy almost of December. There is a new strain circulating in the UK (and inevitably in Ireland) which most of the rest of Europe does not have (or is at very low levels). There are no comparisons between these islands and what Europe is doing.

We know this thing will spread explosively indoors. We know this. We're going to have lots of UK tourists over here shortly, and the quarantine requirements were widely ignored in December and will be again.

So in order to reopen safely we need to get infections down to a really low level, or we need wide vaccination coverage. The second one will happen but it will take a few weeks longer than previously thought (perhaps 4 weeks), and the first one is up for debate.

I'd lift all restrictions on outdoors activities however. We must know by now that outdoors is not risk-free, but it won't lead to widespread transmission.

Personally unfettered access for UK tourists to come here while bars and restaurants are only open outdoors would really annoy me

Id also disagree that its a carbon copy of Christmas given the vaccine administration

Control on UK travellers would be priority 1 for me tbh

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

I don't think you get that sensible outdoor socialising is not something a large minority of people will comply with

Keeping restaurants and bars shut or outdoor only will simply drive people to socialise at home

Probably still better than indoor pubs and restaurants.

No way nphet or government are going to agree to open these establishments indoors with delta on the rise. Much easier to delay or defer priveleges until ireland and UK are in better place vaccination wise.Im sure UK wished they had not opened indoor pubs. Delta is here but try to keep it from becoming dominant for as long as possible until vaccines are rolled out further.