The Delta variant

Rayne Wooney

hmmm wrote: »

Unless you're going to close the border with NI that is simply impossible.

We can do some border theatre and imprison people coming on off a plane, meanwhile there'll be 10 more planes behind it and also people driving off ferries. We're too interlinked. It's not realistic and is a waste of resources. We can live with the risk of all these visitors if everything is being done outdoors.

We're talking worst-case anyway and a delay of only a few weeks. At Christmas there was 100% certainty as to what was going to happen to anyone who had been paying attention, now with Delta there is a lot of work going on by public health to try and contact trace outbreaks which appears to be having an impact.

But you can't reopen pubs and nightclubs and have large weddings if someone from the UK might be inside and there are large numbers of unvaccinated people. This variant appears to be highly transmissible and while we still don't have enough data, the early data we have on hospital admissions is concerning.

“Ah sure we’ll see what happens in two weeks” will never fly with the public - you know it, I know it, even Tony H knows it. It’ll need to be 4 weeks to have any kind of meaningful effect. Nobody in this country will accept pushing the July reopening to 2nd of August, there will be people travelling all over Europe by then, festivals etc

5th of July will happen, we will be in dire straits otherwise.

Rayne Wooney

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

“Ah sure we’ll see what happens in two weeks” will never fly with the public - you know it, I know it, even Tony H knows it. It’ll need to be 4 weeks to have any kind of meaningful effect. Nobody in this country will accept pushing the July reopening to 2nd of August, there will be people travelling all over Europe by then, festivals etc

5th of July will happen, we will be in dire straits otherwise.

No it wont happen, dire straits for what?

Economy is growing strongly ATM, hospitality workers still out of work are being
paid €350 PW.

Pubs that cant re-open are collateral damage just like stobbart air, ryanair etc.

You cant save them all in a pandemic.

If people fly they have plenty of covid tests to pay for and take for their international holiday pleasure unlike last year.

People have and will accept plenty, as politicians are now well aware.

Matt Hancock was saying this recently.

ceadaoin.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Why can’t we open indoor dining for over seventies and more generally fully vaccinated. I am not fully vaccinated and fully accept that restrictions apply to me until I am fully vaccinated.

What about staff?

nocoverart

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

“Ah sure we’ll see what happens in two weeks” will never fly with the public - you know it, I know it, even Tony H knows it. It’ll need to be 4 weeks to have any kind of meaningful effect. Nobody in this country will accept pushing the July reopening to 2nd of August, there will be people travelling all over Europe by then, festivals etc

5th of July will happen, we will be in dire straits otherwise.

I just want a greasy Full Irish served up to me from a Cafe/Diner. Not a fan of black pudding so I’ll order an extra sausage instead. I’ll have to remember to tell them I’ll want my beans in a ramekin, beans can make everything else soggy. Kind of like my toast under done, something satisfying about that “cardboardy” texture with a swish of coffee. Love a runny egg bang on the centre of the plate, don’t mind that sh1t making everything else soggy.

So yeah, hopefully 5th of July will happen

Eivor

wadacrack wrote: »

Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.

Based on what?

Eivor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No it wont happen, dire straits for what?

Economy is growing strongly ATM, hospitality workers still out of work are being
paid €350 PW.

Pubs that cant re-open are collateral damage just like stobbart air, ryanair etc.

You cant save them all in a pandemic.

If people fly they have plenty of covid tests to pay for and take for their international holiday pleasure unlike last year.

People have and will accept plenty, as politicians are now well aware.

Matt Hancock was saying this recently.

You can say it’s not happening all you like. That doesn’t make it a reality

wadacrack

Eivor wrote: »

Based on what?

The modelling on the growth rate and current RO,. Full re-opening been scaled back since this post so hopefully its manageable, also new evidence on vaccines

Turtwig

Eivor wrote: »

Based on what?

This was the message in the UK presentation last night. By delaying by four weeks they will cut the peak of the wave by about 30 to 50%. There is still going to be a wave.

fun loving criminal

Reading the guardian and not sure how people are being hospitalised but symptoms seems to be milder, which includes headaches, sore throat and a runny nose. It can feel like a bad cold they said and they think this is what is driving the infections.

Are they going to update symptoms to include a bad cold? Had an idiot come into work last week with a cold and they said they didn't need a covid test or to isolate because a cold isn't official symptoms of covid. They are going by the official symptoms, fever, cough, breathing difficulties etc.

It's highly dangerous of them not to include a cold as well in their list of symptoms. Isolate all the sick even if it is a cold.

Happydays2020

fun loving criminal wrote: »

Reading the guardian and not sure how people are being hospitalised but symptoms seems to be milder, which includes headaches, sore throat and a runny nose. It can feel like a bad cold they said and they think this is what is driving the infections.

Are they going to update symptoms to include a bad cold? Had an idiot come into work last week with a cold and they said they didn't need a covid test or to isolate because a cold isn't official symptoms of covid. They are going by the official symptoms, fever, cough, breathing difficulties etc.

It's highly dangerous of them not to include a cold as well in their list of symptoms. Isolate all the sick even if it is a cold.

If only there was a test which is reasonably accurate in self testing symptomatic cases of Covid.

funnydoggy

Tyrone212 wrote: »

People go overboard on the RTE are scare mongering just because everything isn't sunshine and lollipops 24 7. The newly released efficacy data after 2 doses is great and will ease any long term worries however this variant is much much more transmissible and a large section of 60 years olds only have 1 dose and aren't as protected as we would like.

Just over 25% of the adult population are fully vaccinated. Its over 50% in the UK and they've had to put the breaks on. Numbers are currently low in ireland and that's great but look how quickly the Kent variant took over at the end of last year. Until second doses increase dramatically we're vulnerable to another surge.

We're currently in a good position but that could change quickly if delta takes hold until more are vaccinated. Thats the truth. RTE reporting that this variant is more transmissible doesn't make them scare mongerers, its simply just a fact being reported on.

A dose of honesty instantly makes you a doom monger or you want another lock down etc from a large amount on here. Its just nonsense.

To be fair, RTE has always been on the side of hysteria and doom & gloom. I'm on mobile now so I can't find it but I made a post here showing their site around the time the incredible vaccine news was initially coming out, and the site had it buried three quarters down the page. What was at the top, in the centre for everyone to see first thing? Something about hospitalisations and deaths in some hospital.

They have never been balanced.

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

This was the message in the UK presentation last night. By delaying by four weeks they will cut the peak of the wave by about 30 to 50%. There is still going to be a wave.

Why do I get a horrible feeling that we’ll be hearing the same thing a few months from now when everybody is vaccinated?

Just 4 weeks of restrictions will help cut the peak.

Lumen

Looking at the worst Covid spot currently in the UK, Blackburn with Darwen (sources below).

There's a lot there, but a few things stick out:

Cases
- Case rates are expressed as total cases/100k in a rolling 7 day window, not daily cases averaged over 7 days. For comparison, when we have 350 cases per day that's a 7-day rate of around 50 per 100k.
- Their 7 day case rate peaked at 666/100k on the 7 June.
- Oldest age groups least affected, but haven't totally dodged it. 60+ rate was 160 on 9 June (latest data), or around a quarter of the rate across all age groups.
- Peak case rate around age 15-19 with substantial rates of infection all the way down to the 5-9 age group.

Vaccinations
- On 9 June vaccination rates were 69%/44% (one dose/two doses).
- % uptake in 65-69 group around 90%.
- That sounds a bit grim (lots of cases despite high levels of vaccination) until you consider that it's the worst area in the UK, and their case rate amongst age 60+ is only three times our national average.
- There isn't data breaking down first/second doses by age, but their double-vaxxed over 60s are suffering only because the rate of infection amongst the younger unvaccinated is so high.

Hospitalisations
- There are 30 people in hospital, which scaled to Ireland would be 300. We currently have 67 in hospital.

In conclusion....

Although this analysis is based on the worst area in England, it's clear that when you remove restrictions, unvaccinated people spread Covid. Some of the fully vaccinated catch it, but the hospitalisations are limited.

This summer is not like last summer, and it seems fairly obvious that the epidemiologists are right about the variants being much more transmissible.

Whilst the curves are still going up, it makes sense for them to pause further relaxation of restrictions. Maybe the badly affected areas have had a bit of a wake up call and people will be more careful until the vaccination programme has rolled out completely.

If three times our current national average is as bad as it gets with the Delta variant, that's not a massive concern, but it nonetheless seems a bit foolish if we were to open up with lower rates of vaccination that the UK has right now.

They're currently at around 57% of adults fully vaccinated, we're at maybe 27% but planning to hit maybe 67% by end of July, so +40% in 45 days.

By 5 July (planned pub opening) we will only be at around 45% second doses.

Eh, OK then. I guess we'd better hope that our longer school holidays and greater use of Pfizer helps us.

I know there are many people calling for opening everything right now, but based on the experience of our closest neighbour that seems rash.

Sources:

Cases
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn%20with%20Darwen

Vaccinations
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn%20with%20Darwen

Hospitalisations
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsTrust&areaName=East%20Lancashire%20Hospitals%20NHS%20Trust
The closest NHS Trust seems to be East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust, serving a population of 521,000.

OwenM

fun loving criminal wrote: »

Reading the guardian and not sure how people are being hospitalised but symptoms seems to be milder, which includes headaches, sore throat and a runny nose. It can feel like a bad cold they said and they think this is what is driving the infections.

Are they going to update symptoms to include a bad cold? Had an idiot come into work last week with a cold and they said they didn't need a covid test or to isolate because a cold isn't official symptoms of covid. They are going by the official symptoms, fever, cough, breathing difficulties etc.

It's highly dangerous of them not to include a cold as well in their list of symptoms. Isolate all the sick even if it is a cold.

You would have a third of the population isolating permanently in this scenario. How do you know a stuffy nose from mild hayfever is not the start of a cold?

OwenM

The delta variant is already causing 7/8 cases in the UK, the peak could be here now or very close to it.

PokeHerKing

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

“Ah sure we’ll see what happens in two weeks” will never fly with the public - you know it, I know it, even Tony H knows it. It’ll need to be 4 weeks to have any kind of meaningful effect. Nobody in this country will accept pushing the July reopening to 2nd of August, there will be people travelling all over Europe by then, festivals etc

5th of July will happen, we will be in dire straits otherwise.

I don't get the urge for posters to speak in such absolutes. It won't make it anymore likely or unlikely to happen. We joe public don't get a say.

Plenty of dates have been moved. We have always kept an eye on what the UK do and we tend to follow suit. I will not be shocked of things get pushed out. I'd rather open as planned, get our summer in and go back into lockdown for autumn/winter. Which I always thought would happen anyway.

I see sheep

Woody79 wrote: »

Economy is growing strongly ATM, hospitality workers still out of work are being
paid €350 PW.

Pubs that cant re-open are collateral damage just like stobbart air, ryanair etc.

Are you having a laugh?

Saying things are ok because people are getting the PUP is like saying it doesn't matter for the economy how many people are out of work on the dole, sur aren't they getting the dole?

And you casually dismiss pubs closing and airlines going out of business as "collateral damage"?

These are people's livelihoods.

Your job is ok I guess?

enda1

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1404484222358900737

How do these figures compare to no vaccine? Is it a 96% reduction in hospitalisation versus no vaccine, or 96% of those vaccinated wont be hospitalised? Surely the former?

fun loving criminal

Happydays2020 wrote: »

If only there was a test which is reasonably accurate in self testing symptomatic cases of Covid.

Antigen tests?

What happens if someone with symptoms (cold like symptoms) gets a negative and continues on like normal?

Any symptoms and they should be isolated and not relying on these tests.

AdamD

Turtwig wrote: »

Comparison doesn't mean exact identical equivalence. A geysey and a fountain both spout water.

There are similarities to the Christmas situation (potential for import of high level of infection from UK) there are also differences (vulnerable groups given some level of vaccine protection).

It's not a bad comparison imo. Our biggest vulnerability to delta is the UK.

Below, he literally said carbon copy.

hmmm wrote: »

The way I see it this is a carbon copy almost of December. There is a new strain circulating in the UK (and inevitably in Ireland) which most of the rest of Europe does not have (or is at very low levels). There are no comparisons between these islands and what Europe is doing.

We know this thing will spread explosively indoors. We know this. We're going to have lots of UK tourists over here shortly, and the quarantine requirements were widely ignored in December and will be again.

So in order to reopen safely we need to get infections down to a really low level, or we need wide vaccination coverage. The second one will happen but it will take a few weeks longer than previously thought (perhaps 4 weeks), and the first one is up for debate.

I'd lift all restrictions on outdoors activities however. We must know by now that outdoors is not risk-free, but it won't lead to widespread transmission.

Carbon copy of December if you somehow forget that we have given out millions of vaccines.

Stheno wrote: »

There are literally hundreds of thousands of 60 year old waiting for a second dose and the same amount of younger cohort seven at risk people who have not even received a first dose.

These are all especially vulnerable

My thing to do is eating out I missed it the past few months.

Much and all as it pisses me off if reopening indoor being delayed means we vaccinate more and start truly getting to the end of this, I'll wait

At this point, what is more reasonable: Continue to have large sectors of the country closed, or ask high risk people to remain careful for a few weeks whilst they await their second dose?

Seems perspective has long gone out the window.

A lot of people noting the UK has 'put the breaks on too'. Lets be clear, the UK has paused their next step which was to remove all restrictions. They are still significantly more open than we are.

Peter Flynt

The whole point of vaccination is to protect people and society when they become infected and thus reduce the number of hospital admissions, ICU numbers and deaths as well as to prevent the spread of the disease.

The vaccines are effective against the delta variant but have varying degrees of effectiveness. Pfizer BioNTech is apparently very effective after two shots and less effective after one.

It needs to be remembered that a large section of society were sent out to schools unvaccinated and that continues to remain the case for many staff working there.

Jinglejangle69

Isn't it the case in the UK that the areas with big infections are where a lot of people are refusing the vaccine?

Thought I heard that last week.

Lumen

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Isn't it the case in the UK that the areas with big infections are where a lot of people are refusing the vaccine?

Thought I heard that last week.

I don't see that in the data.

hmmm

AdamD wrote: »

Below, he literally said carbon copy.

Carbon copy of December if you somehow forget that we have given out millions of vaccines.

At this point, what is more reasonable: Continue to have large sectors of the country closed, or ask high risk people to remain careful for a few weeks whilst they await their second dose?

It's a carbon copy in the sense that we have a new variant which spreads much faster than the current variants, and there is mounting pressure on the government to reopen indoor, high-risk, environments.

The Government did the popular thing back in December and it screwed us for months afterwards as cases spiked. I can't see them falling for the same thing twice.

I don't see any need for lockdowns ever again, but we may need to slow down reopening a small bit if numbers begin to increase.

It's a race now between getting the vaccine out and the variants - we're not in the same place as the UK thankfully. We've covered 25 miles of the marathon, we need to pace ourselves to the end and not fail by pushing ourselves too hard with a mile to go.

Jinglejangle69

Lumen wrote: »

I don't see that in the data.

Think in Bolton as an example and where its bad the uptake with ethnic backgrounds is below the national average.

Few articles on it but suppose hard to make any real conclusions.

tom1ie

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Isn't it the case in the UK that the areas with big infections are where a lot of people are refusing the vaccine?

Thought I heard that last week.

Are the people who refuse a vaccine ending up in hospital due to the delta variant?
Serious question as I’m trying to figure out if this strain is actually more harmful to a person vs the alpha.
It seems to be more transmissible alright.

Lumen

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Think in Bolton as an example and where its bad the uptake with ethnic backgrounds is below the national average.

Few articles on it but suppose hard to make any real conclusions.

I posted links to the data just a few minutes ago, but to save you the effort of clicking a link. :pac:

England:
1st dose: 69.7%
2nd dose: 50.8%

Bolton:
1st dose: 73.8%
2nd dose: 51.5%

I suppose you could argue that it's a specific subpopulation within Bolton but some sources would be nice, rather than hearsay.

Jinglejangle69

Lumen wrote: »

I posted links to the data just a few minutes ago, but to save you the effort of clicking a link. :pac:

England:
1st dose: 69.7%
2nd dose: 50.8%

Bolton:
1st dose: 73.8%
2nd dose: 51.5%

I suppose you could argue that it's a specific subpopulation within Bolton but some sources would be nice, rather than hearsay.

While the Bolton-wide vaccination rate is in line with the England average of 89.8%, there are large variations within the local authority. In Lever Edge, which has the highest case rate in Bolton, 84.7% of those aged 40 and over are vaccinated.

Case rates in Bolton are significantly higher in areas of high deprivation, while vaccination rates are lower in poorer areas and in those with higher black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) populations, in line with national trends.


Sorry was going off this. Link in the guardian.

Lumen

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

While the Bolton-wide vaccination rate is in line with the England average of 89.8%, there are large variations within the local authority. In Lever Edge, which has the highest case rate in Bolton, 84.7% of those aged 40 and over are vaccinated.

Case rates in Bolton are significantly higher in areas of high deprivation, while vaccination rates are lower in poorer areas and in those with higher black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) populations, in line with national trends.


Sorry was going off this. Link in the guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/17/vaccine-hesitancy-remains-extremely-low-in-uk-despite-concerns-government-claims

Jinglejangle69

Lumen wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/17/vaccine-hesitancy-remains-extremely-low-in-uk-despite-concerns-government-claims

"The health secretary, Matt Hancock, said on Sunday that out of the 18 patients in hospital in Bolton, one of the hotspots for the virus, five had been vaccinated. Of the remainder, he said “the vast majority” had been eligible for the vaccine but had not taken it so far"

From your link.

Yeah as I said, just going by the guardian article.

Nothing conclusive from it.