The Delta variant

Bit cynical

giveitholly wrote: »

Well if this delta variant is so transmissable as we are being told how come the wave didn't last a lot longer? It seems to be declining at a rapid rate,no different to any other "variant". Surely with such a densely populated country like India it would take a lot longer for the wave to decline?

Would you not expect a highly transmissible virus to burn through the population at a faster rate and therefore decline faster having done so?

Goldengirl

amandstu wrote: »

How do waves work?Why was their wave not bigger (or smaller,or longer or shorter)?

"It is a wave" is not an explanation.

My guess is that they got a shock and managed to reduce community transmission through the same methods we have.

They were vulnerable because for so long they were comparatively unscathed but got hit with the sucker punch of a significantly more infectious variant.

They had very few people vaccinated when it hit and there were religious get togethers and gatherings without protection with masks or social distancing. It just ripped through them .
They are now reducing levels through all the common sense methods available , and vaccinating as many and as fast as they can .

Modi is a Langer on the level of Bolsinari and Trump.
Said Covid was finished , vaccines here , but failed to roll them out in any meaningful way , sold and exported most of their vaccines abroad, gave them to the highest bidders / rich in India .

And Boris is high on the Langer PM list too imo.

amandstu

Goldengirl wrote: »

....
.

vaccines here , but failed to roll them out in any meaningful way , sold and exported most of their vaccines abroad

Reminds me of what I was taught about the Potato Famine.Wasn't food (grain?) in Ireland exported when needed at home?

(I know it is not a simple question)

Timmy O Toole

Over 1 billion people in India, dont think their death rate is much different than ours if anyone can do the maths

snotboogie

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Because it's burning/has burned itself out in India

Like all Waves do

I can't find how many in India the Delta variant killed, but out of 380,000 mortalities total since last March I'd imagine hundreds of thousands of those were from Delta

Same way the Kent variant Wave slayed us here in January and then passed

Well we also had a six month level 5 lockdown and the biggest vaccination drive in the history of the state to help the wave "pass"

amandstu

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Over 1 billion people in India, dont think their death rate is much different than hours if anyone can do the maths

Wasn't the main problem that the hospitals were overwhelmed?

Numbers and statistics only have a value in a context.

Inquitus

amandstu wrote: »

Wasn't the main problem that the hospitals were overwhelmed?

Numbers and statistics only have a value in a context.

Indeed and the magnitude of the problem was underestimated massively due to poor testing in the cities and almost non-existent testing in rural areas, as well as their awful health infrastructure being utterly overwhelmed.

ShineOn7

snotboogie wrote: »

Well we also had a six month level 5 lockdown and the biggest vaccination drive in the history of the state to help the wave "pass"

Fair point

MadYaker

You can add another zero to that 380,000 death figure from India. They only tested a tiny amount relatively speaking. The numbers from countries where they do fcuk all testing are basically meaningless.

wadacrack

giveitholly wrote: »

Well if this delta variant is so transmissable as we are being told how come the wave didn't last a lot longer? It seems to be declining at a rapid rate,no different to any other "variant". Surely with such a densely populated country like India it would take a lot longer for the wave to decline?

It ran through the population more quickly. The older strains R0 are below 1 in the US , while Delta is near 1.5. UK scientists deserve credit for their work rather than dealing with complaints because its not "good news".

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1404911915411910661/photo/1

Turtwig

Deaths in India are likely an undercount by a factor of ten if not more. Biggest tragedy there is we will likely never know excess deaths. We certainly can't trust any of the official figures. There's a significant undercount.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

You can add another zero to that 380,000 death figure from India. They only tested a tiny amount relatively speaking. The numbers from countries where they do fcuk all testing are basically meaningless.

Just because a number doesn't suit your argument, you can't just go throwing around 0's without a shred of evidence to back it up.

cheezums

Is it not well accepted at this stage that the situation in India was due to complete mismanagement of the virus, opening up early coupled with extremely large religious gatherings, not to mention India being one of the most densely populated countries on earth?

Rather than this latest variant? Yet another attempt by a government to divert attention from their own actions.

Me thinks this variant while not great news is not doomsday either:

1. UK cases are levelling off with very low mortality at this time.

2. Vaccinated people can travel from next month unfettered.

3. Tony for all his solemn words, is going around collecting awards of late
for the pandemic like Usain Bolt at end of a successful track season.
When you collect awards for something its usually when its over.

4. Vaccines are still working and we will be at high levels of immunity
in a few months, before winter approaches.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/dr-tony-holohan-accepts-freedom-of-cityof-dublin-40547848.html

https://www.rcsi.com/dublin/news-and-events/news/news-article/2021/06/dr-tony-holohan-receives-rcsi-honorary-fellowship

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5v0ic-um7A

Boggles

Woody79 wrote: »

1. UK cases are levelling off with very low mortality at this time.

Are they?

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Are they?

Yes have a look rather than ask.

Also Tim Spector says rates in hot spots in North of England seem to have plateued also.

Woody79

Woody79 wrote: »

Yes have a look rather than ask.

Also Tim Spector says rates in hot spots in North of England seem to have plateued also.

So why is the UK news this evening predicting a 3rd wave in late July/early August? I'm not challenging you, i'm genuinely curious. And also, is Ireland destined for similar later on this summer?

PokeHerKing

Woody79 wrote: »

Yes have a look rather than ask.

Also Tim Spector says rates in hot spots in North of England seem to have plateued also.

Their daily cases jumped 30% today on yesterday's figure?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

So why is the UK news this evening predicting a 3rd wave in late July/early August? I'm not challenging you, i'm genuinely curious. And also, is Ireland destined for similar later on this summer?

They are also predicting all restrictions to be gone in mid July.

PokeHerKing

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Their daily cases jumped 30% today on yesterday's figure?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5v0ic-um7A

wadacrack

It does look more promising this week as the growth rate is lowering in the UK. Their are many more variables now especially with vaccines and better weather, variants etc that it seems quite hard to predict what will happen.

But it has definitely been a more positive week with lowering growth rates and vaccine news. 20,000 cases this week was expected.

wadacrack

wadacrack wrote: »

It does look more promising this week as the growth rate is lowering in the UK. Their are many more variables now especially with vaccines and better weather, variants etc that it seems quite hard to predict what will happen.

But it has definitely been a more positive week with lowering growth rates and vaccine news. 20,000 cases this week was expected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5v0ic-um7A

Flatlined in Wales for over a week.

Hotspots close to peak.

London slowing.

Its really not that bad in many parts of mainland UK.

NI seems a bit like Wales.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

So why is the UK news this evening predicting a 3rd wave in late July/early August? I'm not challenging you, i'm genuinely curious. And also, is Ireland destined for similar later on this summer?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5v0ic-um7A

Think you need to listen to this before reading a headline.

Dempo1

Not sure if anyone watching or have seen a brilliant Documentary on BBC 2 tonight, the story behind the development of Vacinnes to fight covid. Its an Horizon special. Anyone whos missed it, really worth looking at.

The process, development, Trials etc on all the Vacinnes, including the Chinese efforts (very unfairly, not covered much in the media), excellent interviews also.

There is however a very Poignant warning towards the end by the very scientists who developed the Vacinnes, it won't please some, indeed it might horrify them, no spoilers but certainly worth looking at if you've access to BBC iplayer.

ShineOn7

Dempo1 wrote: »

There is however a very Poignant warning towards the end by the very scientists who developed the Vacinnes, it won't please some, indeed it might horrify them, no spoilers but certainly worth looking at if you've access to BBC iplayer.

Probably one more for the vaccines thread

What was said though?

ShineOn7

From looking at this, you'd have to wonder why Johnson didn't allow some of the regions doing well fully out of lockdown and just keep the hotspots under it for the extra 4 weeks

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

You can add another zero to that 380,000 death figure from India. They only tested a tiny amount relatively speaking. The numbers from countries where they do fcuk all testing are basically meaningless.

You reckon about 4 million have died in India from Covid? Did the death rate in India spike by 50% last year?

Dempo1

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Probably one more for the vaccines thread

What was said though?

It features the concerns about variants, particularly delta, hence it might be of interest.

I felt vacinne development and Variants linked.

I don't want to get into a back and forth re doom and gloom, lockdown nonsense but suffice to say the advice/warnings strongly recommend against complacency and recommend that word that offended some, "Caution"

Goldengirl

Dempo1 wrote: »

It features the concerns about variants, particularly delta, hence it might be of interest.

I felt vacinne development and Variants linked.

I don't want to get into a back and forth re doom and gloom, lockdown nonsense but suffice to say the advice/warnings strongly recommend against complacency and recommend that word that offended some, "Caution"

Careful , shush !
I mentioned a similar subject about 6 or 7 weeks ago and was quite literally squashed !
I will be watching that, thanks, but we had better not mention those negative possibilities ...not yet

Dempo1

Goldengirl wrote: »

Careful , shush !
I mentioned a similar subject about 6 or 7 weeks ago and was quite literally squashed !
I will be watching that, thanks, but we had better not mention those negative possibilities ...not yet

LOL I hear you, had the same experience when actually proven correct on the topic of Boosters potentially being required........... DAMN, I've mentioned another offensive word