The Delta variant

Polar101

Those HSE numbers don't seem to be too useful - ok, so there weren't too many cases of the variant up until May 27th, but that was more than 3 weeks ago. It sounds like they don't really know what the current situation is.

However, case numbers aren't going up, so that suggests the situation isn't too bad.

Drumpot

wadacrack wrote: »

I think our cautious approach might prove to be the correct decision especially as Vaccines are are proving effective against the Delta variant.

Russia is seeing high numbers, vaccine hesitancy reported to be high too.


Russian authorities say the Delta coronavirus variant, first detected in India, is spearing rapidly in the country amid a resurgence of cases.

Russia confirmed more than 14,000 new infections on Thursday. That's up more than 60 percent from the end of last month.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said at a government task force meeting that the capital's daily tally of new cases soared from 3,000 to 7,000 in just a few days. He added this is a huge change not seen in previous waves.


https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210618_05/

I think you are right. I’ve been looking into the possibility of trying to get away in august but there are a few things holding me back. One is the Delta variant that could change the landscape over the coming weeks. Prices are cheap because many at this stage know that things can change very quickly with COVId.

If it plays out like how it looks, the vaccine may slow it down and maybe reduce deaths (most vulnerable vaccinated/protected better) but sheer numbers getting infected will have the potential to effect hospital services again. The bottom line is that it’s unclear exactly how this variant is going to play out. I guess the Uk is a good barometer (canary in coal mine) for us in some ways as we can be sure what’s happening to them is only a few weeks from happening to us.

It’s basic common sense to look at the Uk, that’s wayyyyy ahead of use from a vaccine POV. Why would Irish people be somehow immune to what’s happening in the UK, but on a worse level (with lower vaccine levels)? It’s like ground hog day on this, just another Christmas cock up where people are so frustrated with restrictions and government under so much pressure , we will open up in spite of all the warnings that a potential new variant might cause.

Seems like an overly cautious opening up is the most prudent until most or all are vaccinated. That will be as popular as a red hot poker to the face for most. Regardless of your opinion on this, I don’t envy governments or the likes of NEPHET having to balance common sense with populations expectations.

Red Silurian

Steve012 wrote: »

I'll be hung out to dry for posting this... ah well freedom of speech I guess. ðŸ‘ðŸ½



https://www.bitchute.com/video/9Ci2jK1yFoOd/

Not at all, it's good to know what the anti-vaxers are saying so we can read some very in depth fact checking reports as to why he's completely wrong

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/debunked-mike-yeadon-pfizer-covid-19-vaccines-5447489-May2021/%3famp=1

nate1984

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've seen some helpful and knowledgeable posters in Work & Jobs before

And, if it escalates, there's Work Problems

It looks like you're not the only one who doesn't want to return

Thanks for the response, much appreciated. Just to clarify I’m accepting of the fact that I WILL be back in the office eventually and have no problem with that.

My concern first and always is my wife. My explanation of her condition is very top level and the specifics are not important to this conversation with the exception that she is extremely high risk. Her condition has caused immense heartache for us these last few years and that was living life pre-pandemic.

The only thing I want to explore is to see how the return to work goes for others first before I return just to take the extra care and ensure there is no further suffering on my wife’s part.

saabsaab

Read that Moscow is having a Delta variant wave at the moment. After months of normality. Apparently their vaccine uptake rate is very low.

niallo27

Love the way people pick the worst case scenario with **** all people are vaccinated and say look, that could be us, something about Christmas, another few weeks lads. It's bizarre.

Panrich

saabsaab wrote: »

Read that Moscow is having a Delta variant wave at the moment. After months of normality. Apparently their vaccine uptake rate is very low.

In fairness you can understand any reluctance to take an injection prescribed by Putin.

dominatinMC

niallo27 wrote: »

Love the way people pick the worst case scenario with **** all people are vaccinated and say look, that could be us, something about Christmas, another few weeks lads. It's bizarre.

Exactly. Maybe those people need to be directed towards The Times of Israel or The New York Times for some more balance to their Covid news..

JTMan

Interesting graphs posted by Eric Topol on the percentage of cases that are delta. It is growing significantly as a percentages of cases.

Also, 2 outbreaks in schools in Israel. Israel only started to vaccinate those aged 12-15 in June so those in that age group are not fully vaccinated yet ...

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1406471467940810752

Widdensushi

I thought new variants always gain as a percentage of cases?

fash

Widdensushi wrote: »

I thought new variants always gain as a percentage of cases?

Only if they are better at spreading than the existing variants.

dominatinMC

JTMan wrote: »

Interesting graphs posted by Eric Topol on the percentage of cases that are delta. It is growing significantly as a percentages of cases.

Also, 2 outbreaks in schools in Israel. Israel only started to vaccinate those aged 12-15 in June so those in that age group are not fully vaccinated yet ...

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1406471467940810752

What is the significance of those "outbreaks"? Apart from the ammunition they provide to the media for hysterical headlines? If everyone those children meet are vaccinated, then nothing will come of it. Maybe the kids might have a runny nose?

JTMan

dominatinMC wrote: »

What is the significance of those "outbreaks"? Apart from the ammunition they provide to the media for hysterical headlines? If everyone those children meet are vaccinated, then nothing will come of it. Maybe the kids might have a runny nose?

The significance is that Israel are one step ahead and it provides an interesting forward looking view of what to expect. Israel had virtually eliminated Covid and are now seeing some school outbreaks. This provides more evidence that the vaccination of adults may not be sufficient for herd immunity and it is likely that we will need to vaccinate children as Israel have already started.

It also shows that Delta can spread even when you have a high percentage vaccinated.

I don't subscribe to the it's okay to 'let them get it' attitude, by some, towards children, Covid can be serious for Children, and the latest research points towards brain issues in some Children, if infections can be avoided they should be. I really hope that Ireland can vaccinate 12-17 year olds as soon as the adult vaccination programme is complete and hopefully 2-11 year olds soon after.

SusanC10

JTMan wrote: »

The significance is that Israel are one step ahead and it provides an interesting forward looking view of what to expect. Israel had virtually eliminated Covid and are now seeing some school outbreaks. This provides more evidence that the vaccination of adults may not be sufficient for herd immunity and it is likely that we will need to vaccinate children as Israel have already started.

It also shows that Delta can spread even when you have a high percentage vaccinated.

I don't subscribe to the it's okay to 'let them get it' attitude, by some, towards children, Covid can be serious for Children, and the latest research points towards brain issues in some Children, if infections can be avoided they should be. I really hope that Ireland can vaccinate 12-17 year olds as soon as the adult vaccination programme is complete and hopefully 2-11 year olds soon after.

Agree completely with this.

niallo27

JTMan wrote: »

The significance is that Israel are one step ahead and it provides an interesting forward looking view of what to expect. Israel had virtually eliminated Covid and are now seeing some school outbreaks. This provides more evidence that the vaccination of adults may not be sufficient for herd immunity and it is likely that we will need to vaccinate children as Israel have already started.

It also shows that Delta can spread even when you have a high percentage vaccinated.

I don't subscribe to the it's okay to 'let them get it' attitude, by some, towards children, Covid can be serious for Children, and the latest research points towards brain issues in some Children, if infections can be avoided they should be. I really hope that Ireland can vaccinate 12-17 year olds as soon as the adult vaccination programme is complete and hopefully 2-11 year olds soon after.

Listen I got my vaccine first day I could, but the thought of giving it to my 2 year old doesn't sit right with me. Maybe I'm being crazy.

ArthurDayne

JTMan wrote: »

The significance is that Israel are one step ahead and it provides an interesting forward looking view of what to expect. Israel had virtually eliminated Covid and are now seeing some school outbreaks. This provides more evidence that the vaccination of adults may not be sufficient for herd immunity and it is likely that we will need to vaccinate children as Israel have already started.

It also shows that Delta can spread even when you have a high percentage vaccinated.

I don't subscribe to the it's okay to 'let them get it' attitude, by some, towards children, Covid can be serious for Children, and the latest research points towards brain issues in some Children, if infections can be avoided they should be. I really hope that Ireland can vaccinate 12-17 year olds as soon as the adult vaccination programme is complete and hopefully 2-11 year olds soon after.

I just feel though that this is one of those things that sounds very noble, and almost bulletproof, to say — but I’m not sure the logic works.

The “let them get it” attitude is very much on a scale, and I’m getting the impression that you are on that scale too — not off it. The only way to get yourself off that scale, in a context where Covid is still circulating in the community, is to advocate for keeping children at home and isolated permanently until they are all vaccinated or. Covid is otherwise eliminated (which isn’t going to happen anytime soon). Are you calling for this? Because if you aren’t, then I’m sorry to say that this is (even if subconsciously) an attitude of “let them get it” to an extent. It’s all relative isn’t it? If someone comes along and says that children should be kept under absolute lock and key until vaccinated or until all the older age groups are vaccinated or until Covid is wiped off the Earth forever — wouldn’t they be saying to you “Oh I don’t subscribe to your view of letting them get it” ?

Yes — we shouldn’t utterly disregard the risks which Covid can pose to children, but in a similar vein we cannot be disproportionate in how we approach that risk. In the normal course of non-pandemic life, there are risks involved with ever letting your child out of the house or any more than a few metres away from you — and even then the risk remains. Measures and restrictions have to be commensurate with the risk however — as does public perception of how we weigh up these risks. There is a risk to children from Covid — but it is small and rare — and so we must not look at it disproportionately versus the whole universe of other risks which children are subjected to in the course of life.

dominatinMC

JTMan wrote: »

The significance is that Israel are one step ahead and it provides an interesting forward looking view of what to expect. Israel had virtually eliminated Covid and are now seeing some school outbreaks. This provides more evidence that the vaccination of adults may not be sufficient for herd immunity and it is likely that we will need to vaccinate children as Israel have already started.

It also shows that Delta can spread even when you have a high percentage vaccinated.

I don't subscribe to the it's okay to 'let them get it' attitude, by some, towards children, Covid can be serious for Children, and the latest research points towards brain issues in some Children, if infections can be avoided they should be. I really hope that Ireland can vaccinate 12-17 year olds as soon as the adult vaccination programme is complete and hopefully 2-11 year olds soon after.

Outbreaks will be part of life going forward, except we won't call them "outbreaks", just as we don't refer to flu "outbreaks". People will just have to accept there will always be cases. But the vast, vast majority of these cases will be harmless. So you refer to research that Covid can be serious for children. Without having read that piece of research, that is surely a very, very small minority, because all the evidence worldwide for the last 16 months of the pandemic suggests it does very little harm (if any) to younger adults. So again, I ask what is the problem here with these "outbreaks"?

gw80

Isn't there a bigger risk to children from influenza than there is from covid?

Lumen

dominatinMC wrote: »

So again, I ask what is the problem here with these "outbreaks"?

Putting to one side the issue of effects from Covid (which you can't be bothered to read about), there is an obvious problem with having one age group protected by vaccination and another with the virus circulating freely - it provides the perfect conditions for mutations to evolve which can escape the vaccines.

Whereas with vaccinated children there are far, far fewer opportunities for that to happen.

Micky 32

Lumen wrote: »

Putting to one side the issue of effects from Covid (which you can't be bothered to read about), there is an obvious problem with having one age group protected by vaccination and another with the virus circulating freely - it provides the perfect conditions for mutations to evolve which can escape the vaccines.

Whereas with vaccinated children there are far, far fewer opportunities for that to happen.

So should we extend lockdowns/restrictions ( including the fully vaccinated)for say another year or so? Would that solve the problem?

Lumen

Micky 32 wrote: »

So should we extend lockdowns/restrictions for say another year or so? Would that solve the problem?

I'm not sure why you're asking me that question. I didn't say anything about restrictions.

Micky 32

Lumen wrote: »

I'm not sure why you're asking me that question. I didn't say anything about restrictions.

Well it will be a while before kids will be vaccinated so you must have some idea in your head on how to protect the children? What is your solution?

Lumen

Micky 32 wrote: »

Well it will be a while before kids will be vaccinated so you must have some idea in your head on how to protect the children? What is your solution?

I haven't raised the issue of protecting the children, but if that's your concern then I'd suggest getting them vaccinated as soon as supplies are available and approved for their age group.

In the meantime carry on as much we did last school year.

I don't have a strong opinion about whether masks in class are still going to be a good idea, the kids seemed to tolerate them OK last year but by the time they go back the teachers should be vaccinated.

It'd be nice to get proper PE lessons going. Walking is boring.

dominatinMC

Lumen wrote: »

Putting to one side the issue of effects from Covid (which you can't be bothered to read about), there is an obvious problem with having one age group protected by vaccination and another with the virus circulating freely - it provides the perfect conditions for mutations to evolve which can escape the vaccines.

Whereas with vaccinated children there are far, far fewer opportunities for that to happen.

Putting aside the snide tone, I've read plenty on the effects of Covid and the overriding theme is the negligible impact on children. Of course, there will be exceptions and that's unfortunate, but such rare occurrences are no reason for prolonging restrictions. That would be quite a drastic moving of the goal posts from "flattening the curve", "protect the hospitals", etc.
As for vaccine escape, that is indeed a possibility. But, again from what I read, the possibility of this is significantly reduced despite it circulating in a certain demographic. What you appear to be advocating is zero Covid...

Lumen

dominatinMC wrote: »

What you appear to be advocating is zero Covid...

I am not, although it would be nice.

JTMan

dominatinMC wrote: »

I ask what is the problem here with these "outbreaks"?

- Prevents us achieving herd immunity.
- Provides conditions for mutations to evolve.
- Can cause illness in the children. Yeah, most are fine but not all. The UK is creating 15 Long Covid clinics for children. The UK's Office for National Statistics estimate that 7-8% of children and adolescents will develop persistent symptoms lasting at least 3 months.
- Contributes to spread including in un-vaccinated adults.

All I am advocating is:
- The vaccination of 12-17 year olds to occur as soon as the adult population is complete. In an ideal world, this would be done before schools reopen, but this now seems less likely.
- The vaccination of 2-11 year olds later this year when EMA approval is received.
- Make schools as safe as realistically possible in the interim.

Level 42

read this thread what a waste of time

Dempo1

Level 42 wrote: »

read this thread what a waste of time

You must be exhausted , I am but according to Leaky Leo in quite an astonishing and tetchy interview on the week in politics (RTE), the Pandemic is over, so apparently no need to be at all concerned about the Delta variant or indeed any variant for that matter.

wadacrack

The Ro has lowered in the UK this week. Definitely was worry that cases would be much higher . I mentioned 20,000 being a possibility but thankfully not.

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1406595729724956677

brickster69

UK figures on a 7 day average from before the Kent variant was discovered. Testing is 15x more now than October.

Cases

1st October 2020: 9700
20th June 2021: 9400

Deaths

1st October 2020: 52
20th June 2021: 10