The Delta variant

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

And what do you think the outcomes of rising cases are even in younger unvaccinated populations?

what will be the outcome?
hospitalisations on a mass scale that would put the health service under pressure?

where's the evidence for that?

Snooker Loopy

tom1ie wrote: »

what will be the outcome?
hospitalisations on a mass scale that would put the health service under pressure?

where's the evidence for that?

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017

tom1ie

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017

ok grand but what is the breakdown of people going into hospital?

is it the elderly that have been vaccinated twice? if so the vaccine is no good.

is it people that have only been dosed once?

is it otherwise young healthy people that haven't had a vaccine yet?

purplefields

tom1ie wrote: »

ok grand but what is the breakdown of people going into hospital?

is it the elderly that have been vaccinated twice? if so the vaccine is no good.

is it people that have only been dosed once?

is it otherwise young healthy people that haven't had a vaccine yet?

I believe a problem is that although the vaccines can stop someone dying, they can still end up in hospital, taking up hospital resources for a couple of weeks.

TonyMaloney

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Until the link between cases & hospitalisation/deaths is broken, then cases very much matter.

At the moment hospitalisations and deaths are rising exponentially, albeit at a significantly lower rate than before due to their excellent vax roll out.

I think what you meant to say is that cases don't matter to you, personally.
That's fine, but you should probably put me on ignore.

Well then the link can never be "broken" by those criteria since Covid hospitalisations can't happen without Covid cases so even a million cases leading to one hospitalisation wouldn't "break" the link.

brickster69

tom1ie wrote: »

ok grand but what is the breakdown of people going into hospital?

is it the elderly that have been vaccinated twice? if so the vaccine is no good.

is it people that have only been dosed once?

is it otherwise young healthy people that haven't had a vaccine yet?

You will have to trust me on this.

Last week the figures were 40% under 20's

30% 21-29

4% Over 60's

The rest ages in between

What was to note was that the discharges were a very high % which meant people were not in for long, i think it was under 24 hrs mostly.

3.5K fully vaccinated people had been admitted from all Delta cases in England of which 50 had died and all of those were over 50.

purplefields

Woody79 wrote: »

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/covid-vaccines-provided-protection-in-over-95-pc-of-vaccinated-healthcare-workers-says-study20210616200420/


0 deaths in vaccinated HCW in delta india surge.

Not bad given the carnage there.

I actually think Delta while definitely more infectious is slightly less severe (which fits into natural scientific evolution)

This might not be the case.
I have heard that mentioned before with other diseases, that they evolve to be milder because dead people don't spread the disease as much.

However, a huge problem with Covid it that people have already spread it before they get really sick. This means that there is no evolutionary advantage for it to become milder.

saabsaab

There will most likely be more variants after Delta. Perhaps more virulent our best defense at this time is to vaccinate everyone (almost everyone).

tom1ie

purplefields wrote: »

I believe a problem is that although the vaccines can stop someone dying, they can still end up in hospital, taking up hospital resources for a couple of weeks.

Where is the proof of that.
The vaccines are effective against all strains of c19 (as in turn c19 into a mild illness) and cut down transmissibility.

tom1ie

brickster69 wrote: »

You will have to trust me on this.

Last week the figures were 40% under 20's

30% 21-29

4% Over 60's

The rest ages in between

What was to note was that the discharges were a very high % which meant people were not in for long, i think it was under 24 hrs mostly.

3.5K fully vaccinated people had been admitted from all Delta cases in England of which 50 had died and all of those were over 50.

40% were under 20’s who ended up in hospital with delta?

So 3.5k fully vaccinated ending up in hospital due to covid means vaccines are not as effective as they are made out to be no?

tom1ie

brickster69 wrote: »

You will have to trust me on this.

Last week the figures were 40% under 20's

30% 21-29

4% Over 60's

The rest ages in between

What was to note was that the discharges were a very high % which meant people were not in for long, i think it was under 24 hrs mostly.

3.5K fully vaccinated people had been admitted from all Delta cases in England of which 50 had died and all of those were over 50.

Where are u getting this info.
I don’t do blind trust!!

Goldengirl

tom1ie wrote: »

what will be the outcome?
hospitalisations on a mass scale that would put the health service under pressure?

where's the evidence for that?

Did you read my post after that ?

Directly in the thread after that one ...

Goldengirl

tom1ie wrote: »

Where are u getting this info.
I don’t do blind trust!!

Do you think you could contribute instead of all the snarky questions to everyone ?

If you don't agree with someone say why and give your own opinion and / or refuting data .

What you are doing is interrogating other posters and sounds very uncivil tbh .

Why should anyone reply to that , I don't know .

beaz2018

Does anyone have a clear answer as to what happened in India? How did cases go down so much, so quickly?

Please don’t tell me it’s all being covered up, when it was bad over there we knew all about it.

purplefields

tom1ie wrote: »

Where is the proof of that.
The vaccines are effective against all strains of c19 (as in turn c19 into a mild illness) and cut down transmissibility.

There is no proof that I know of.
It's pure conjecture.

I did say 'might'.

purplefields

saabsaab wrote: »

There will most likely be more variants after Delta. Perhaps more virulent our best defense at this time is to vaccinate everyone (almost everyone).

There already are loads more variants.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern

and
https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

(Check out Lambda!)

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

Do you think you could contribute instead of all the snarky questions to everyone ?

If you don't agree with someone say why and give your own opinion and / or refuting data .

What you are doing is interrogating other posters and sounds very uncivil tbh .

Why should anyone reply to that , I don't know .

I think your taking me up wrong here.
I’m asking genuine questions.
All I said was I don’t do blind trust.
Asking questions of other posters on a discussion forum is now interrogating is it?

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

Did you read my post after that ?

Directly in the thread after that one ...

I may have missed it I’ll read back.

robinph

tom1ie wrote: »

40% were under 20’s who ended up in hospital with delta?

So 3.5k fully vaccinated ending up in hospital due to covid means vaccines are not as effective as they are made out to be no?

No.

BBC News - Covid: Misleading stat claims more vaccinated people die
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998

It means that if people were not vaccinated then the numbers would have the decimal point a couple of places further over to the right.

brickster69

tom1ie wrote: »

Where are u getting this info.
I don’t do blind trust!!

Suit yourself, but to answer your 2 questions

40% were under 20’s who ended up in hospital with delta?

Yes of all total admissions in a week

So 3.5k fully vaccinated ending up in hospital due to covid means vaccines are not as effective as they are made out to be no?

3.5K fully vaccinated who tested positive with Delta from all ages, of which 50 died who were all over 50. That is from all Delta cases till last week.

snowcat

tom1ie wrote: »

40% were under 20’s who ended up in hospital with delta?

So 3.5k fully vaccinated ending up in hospital due to covid means vaccines are not as effective as they are made out to be no?

I think another level 5 is needed. Next 2 weeks are crucial. Obviously the vaccines are no good.

Goldengirl

purplefields wrote: »

There already are loads more variants.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern

and
https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

Once we reach herd immunity or are fully vaccinated there is less room for these variants to multiply and the hope is they will eventually become endemic like seasonal flu .
Occasionally they will breakthrough if they can find hosts that have no immunity or whose immunity is waning eg elderly or immunocompromised, but that is why boosters are being developed.
The real danger is the 3rd world countries who haven't vaccines or vaccine hesitant groups which will sustain pockets of infection around the world until fully vaccinated .
Variants of concern will continue to evolve under these circumstances .

We are not in danger of anything here really except losing a few more weeks of freedom once vaccinations continue at the rate they are proposed .

tom1ie

brickster69 wrote: »

Suit yourself, but to answer your 2 questions

40% were under 20’s who ended up in hospital with delta?

Yes of all total admissions in a week

So 3.5k fully vaccinated ending up in hospital due to covid means vaccines are not as effective as they are made out to be no?

3.5K fully vaccinated who tested positive with Delta from all ages, of which 50 died who were all over 50. That is from all Delta cases till last week.

Thanks for that. Are there any links?

Fils

snowcat wrote: »

I think another level 5 is needed. Next 2 weeks are crucial. Obviously the vaccines are no good.

We will be in level 5 by August. Nphet are backing the fourth wave.

brickster69

tom1ie wrote: »

Thanks for that. Are there any links?

Somewhere on this website, but can't be arsed to look. Do it yourself.

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

Once we reach herd immunity or are fully vaccinated there is less room for these variants to multiply and the hope is they will eventually become endemic like seasonal flu .
Occasionally they will breakthrough if they can find hosts that have no immunity or whose immunity is waning eg elderly or immunocompromised, but that is why boosters are being developed.
The real danger is the 3rd world countries who haven't vaccines or vaccine hesitant groups which will sustain pockets of infection around the world until fully vaccinated .
Variants of concern will continue to evolve under these circumstances .

We are not in danger of anything here really except losing a few more weeks of freedom once vaccinations continue at the rate they are proposed .

Herd immunity occurs at 75-80%.
Will we reach that number though as children under 12 won’t be vaccinated (atm) and the anti vaxers.

tom1ie

brickster69 wrote: »

Somewhere on this website, but can't be arsed to look. Do it yourself.

Ok.
Well thanks again.

purplefields

tom1ie wrote: »

Herd immunity occurs at 75-80%.
Will we reach that number though as children under 12 won’t be vaccinated (atm) and the anti vaxers.

Not necessarily.
It depends on the R0. Generally if the R0 goes up, then so does the herd immunity threshold.

breadmond

Fils wrote: »

We will be in level 5 by August. Nphet are backing the fourth wave.

They were never going to give up this level of power voluntarily. Tony is a lifelong authoritarian, this is the golden opportunity for him to try to twist society into how he thinks it should look

Goldengirl

tom1ie wrote: »

I may have missed it I’ll read back.

Taking your 2 posts together .....:)

No problem asking questions, but be civil so you get a reply .

Also the usual is one question per post , your posts over the last couple of pages were mostly one question after another , it comes across aggressive.

Yes you did miss it because you had so many questions :pac: