The Delta variant

snowcat

Goldengirl wrote: »

Once we reach herd immunity or are fully vaccinated there is less room for these variants to multiply and the hope is they will eventually become endemic like seasonal flu .
Occasionally they will breakthrough if they can find hosts that have no immunity or whose immunity is waning eg elderly or immunocompromised, but that is why boosters are being developed.
The real danger is the 3rd world countries who haven't vaccines or vaccine hesitant groups which will sustain pockets of infection around the world until fully vaccinated .
Variants of concern will continue to evolve under these circumstances .

We are not in danger of anything here really except losing a few more weeks of freedom once vaccinations continue at the rate they are proposed .

Wishful thinking. You are going to be jabbed every 6 months if you are a vaccine fan and it still wont make a difference. As we have found out the virus is one step ahead.

TonyMaloney

tom1ie wrote: »

Herd immunity occurs at 75-80%.
Will we reach that number though as children under 12 won’t be vaccinated (atm) and the anti vaxers.

Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

tom1ie

purplefields wrote: »

Not necessarily.
It depends on the R0. Generally if the R0 goes up, then so does the herd immunity threshold.

Michael osterholm has being saying since February 2020, globally we need to reach at least 75% to let this thing die out.
That happens through infection (bad) or vaccines (good).
Tbf he is a voice of reason on this.

Goldengirl

tom1ie wrote: »

Herd immunity occurs at 75-80%.
Will we reach that number though as children under 12 won’t be vaccinated (atm) and the anti vaxers.

Less antivaxxers in Ireland than other countries.
Children under 12 may not need vaccination unless vulnerable conditions .
That has still to be decided.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

Is it not also based on how effective a vaccine is?
I don't think anyone can calculate it as there's too many variables.

tom1ie

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

90% with delta vs 75-80% with original strain? Yikes.

Lumen

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=117554953&postcount=4169

Goldengirl

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Herd immunity is dependent on the transmissibility of the virus.
Delta has made reaching that point with vaccines alone much more difficult.

I'm struggling to find a source but I believe it's thought to require about 90% of the pop

Heard this too directly related to Delta .
Mark Coughlan on PrimeTime but don't know his source .

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

Less antivaxxers in Ireland than other countries.
Children under 12 may not need vaccination unless vulnerable conditions .
That has still to be decided.

Yes but if you need a high percentage 80%+, of people vaccinated/infected to reach herd, then ignoring under 12’s means you may not reach herd due to, well, numbers.

Goldengirl

snowcat wrote: »

Wishful thinking. You are going to be jabbed every 6 months if you are a vaccine fan and it still wont make a difference. As we have found out the virus is one step ahead.

No. It has already been said that they think we have immunity lasting a couple of years from the vaccinations.
Boosters just for elderly and vulnerable.

Goldengirl

tom1ie wrote: »

Yes but if you need a high percentage 80%+, of people vaccinated/infected to reach herd, then ignoring under 12’s means you may not reach herd due to, well, numbers.

Wild type immunity from infections also is believed yo last at least 9 months ...and rising .

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

No. It has already been said that they think we have immunity lasting a couple of years from the vaccinations.
Boosters just for elderly and vulnerable.

I’ve never seen anything saying we have immunity for 2 years (which would be fantastic news). Has this been publicised?

TonyMaloney

tom1ie wrote: »

Yes but if you need a high percentage 80%+, of people vaccinated/infected to reach herd, then ignoring under 12’s means you may not reach herd due to, well, numbers.

Well, you'll also get some immunity from infection.

In fact it's almost as though that's the unspoken plan. Let the kids get the virus. Vaccines for the grownups. It'll all be grand. Shussshhh

tom1ie

Goldengirl wrote: »

Wild type immunity from infections also is believed yo last at least 9 months ...and rising .

Well that is good but I suppose the problem being wild infections = hospitalisations, which I though was no longer a thing until I ventured back into this thread!!

tom1ie

snowcat wrote: »

And then are we prepared to allow children to die from complications who have a greater risk from the vaccine than Covid?

? Are you saying kids will die directly from taking the vaccines?

Chris_5339762

tom1ie wrote: »

90% with delta vs 75-80% with original strain? Yikes.

It could well be that high. R0 for Delta is possibly 7 or 8, with no control measures at all. Its an incredibly transmissible virus now.


Now, does it matter, with vaccinations etc. That is the big question.

snowcat

tom1ie wrote: »

? Are you saying kids will die directly from taking the vaccines?

Not sure what you are leaning to but yes some will die from taking the vaccine. Very rare but from stats more than from initially contracting the virus and then dying from it

brickster69

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Now, does it matter, with vaccinations etc. That is the big question.

All that matters at the moment is having 2 doses. Who knows after that.

Danzy

Just imagine how brutal it could have been if the Indian variant was the original one.

It would have overwhelmed before any measures.

tom1ie

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

It could well be that high. R0 for Delta is possibly 7 or 8, with no control measures at all. Its an incredibly transmissible virus now.


Now, does it matter, with vaccinations etc. That is the big question.

Agreed.
Well if you look at some of the stats on here it’s not great reading.
3.5k in hospital that were double vaccinated?
By the way I presume that was double vaccinated with at least 10 days since second dose.

TefalBrain

Fils wrote: »

We will be in level 5 by August. Nphet are backing the fourth wave.

I know you say that tongue in cheek but nothing would surprise me now.

saabsaab

snowcat wrote: »

Wishful thinking. You are going to be jabbed every 6 months if you are a vaccine fan and it still wont make a difference. As we have found out the virus is one step ahead.

I hope you are wrong but it's too early to say yet until most are vaccinated here. Maybe a highly infectious 'harmless' variant will emerge?

tom1ie

snowcat wrote: »

Not sure what you are leaning to but yes some will die from taking the vaccine. Very rare but from stats more than from initially contracting the virus and then dying from it

How do you know this?
Has there been studies on vaccinating under 12s?

brickster69

tom1ie wrote: »

Agreed.
Well if you look at some of the stats on here it’s not great reading.
3.5k in hospital that were double vaccinated?
By the way I presume that was double vaccinated with at least 10 days since second dose.

3.5K who tested positive

tom1ie

brickster69 wrote: »

3.5K who tested positive

Ok. I must have misread that.
3.5k who tested positive, but didn’t impact the hospital service. So what’s the issue there?
Genuine question.

snowcat

tom1ie wrote: »

How do you know this?
Has there been studies on vaccinating under 12s?

No but there is stats on the amount of under 18's who pass from Covid. It is miniscule. Once you factor in the chance of contrating the virus it is infititesimal. The Vaccine is much more dangerous for an U18

saabsaab

Danzy wrote: »

Just imagine how brutal it could have been if the Indian variant was the original one.

It would have overwhelmed before any measures.

Good point. It could have been! We really need to be able to shut down air travel from an outbreak country at short notice in future.

Pinch Flat

snowcat wrote: »

No but there is stats on the amount of under 18's who pass from Covid. It is miniscule. Once you factor in the chance of contrating the virus it is infititesimal. The Vaccine is much more dangerous for an U18

Is that your own opinion, or is it backed up by some form of scientific data?

tom1ie

snowcat wrote: »

No but there is stats on the amount of under 18's who pass from Covid. It is miniscule. Once you factor in the chance of contrating the virus it is infititesimal. The Vaccine is much more dangerous for an U18

But the vaccine reduces transmission no?
What is the % chance of an u18 dying from taking the vaccine? I’d say it’s fairly infinitesimal aswell.

snowcat

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Is that your own opinion, or is it backed up by some form of scientific data?

Google is your friend but sure ill bite

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/