The Delta variant

Boggles

FileNotFound wrote: »

I think this is something that has many confused. Vaccines give your body the ability to fight a virus more effectively than before.

It's not an invisible shield.

It could be, we just don't know yet or at least to what extent. Studies are ongoing.

The phrase is "sterilization immunity" - The Messi of vaccine response.

The real 'invisible shield' comes at a population level.

Interesting case from Oz.

A birthday party in Australia has been called a "superspreader" event after 24 guests tested positive for the coronavirus.

The highly infectious Delta variant could have infected every guest at the party had there not been six fully vaccinated healthcare workers in attendance

TonyMaloney

timmyntc wrote: »

The covid vaccines never prevented transmission. Not even on the original strain.
They are "leaky" vaccines - they immunize but do not prevent infection. So you will be fine, but there is a chance the virus can use you as a vector of transmission to the next person.

This is a well documented phenomenon.
Delta, apart from its extra transmissibility, changes nothing. We haven't "lost" anything to it. So stop spreading misinformation.

Yes, vaccines block most transmission of COVID-19

The latest data show that getting a shot not only protects vaccinated individuals, it reduces the chance they can spread the virus to others.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19

That's from April. It's now out of date.

Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage. Take the time to wrap your head around this so you don't go around accusing people of spreading misinformation.

An apology would be nice once you've managed to grasp it

FileNotFound

timmyntc wrote: »

This is a well documented phenomenon.
Delta, apart from its extra transmissibility, changes nothing. We haven't "lost" anything to it. So stop spreading misinformation.

Tony is a perfect example of the poor communication in relation to current events and vaccines.

He is not trying to give any misinformation I'd say but is rather scared and confused by the NPHET doom and gloom that we see right now.

MY parents are the same, no reasoning with them when Tony Holohan tells them we'll be in the toilet the same month we will have the entire adult population vaccinated????


This is where much of my disquiet comes from.

timmyntc

FileNotFound wrote: »

There is no technically about it - that is 100% what these vaccines and every other vaccine in the world does.

Flu jab efficacy is somewhere below 70% if i recall and only cover a small number of the known variants at any time (4 more prevalent in the precious year or comething similar) - (Stand open for correction on the specifics here). Covid will be the same in years to come.

We haven't actually lost anything to the delta based on actual real world figures coming out of the UK. Cases high but mortality and hospitalization low. At least all thats what all the charts floating round in these threads show.

So I would disagree and say that it is going as planned but people expected magic.

No - there are plenty of vaccines out there that will stop transmission also. It largely depends on what virus you are vaccinating against. Plenty of vaccines will stop you from transmitting.

timmyntc

TonyMaloney wrote: »

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19

That's from April. It's now out of date.

Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage. Take the time to wrap your head around this so you don't go around accusing people of spreading misinformation.

An apology would be nice once you've managed to grasp it

By reducing symptoms the vaccine reduce transmissibility - but the virus is still transmissible. You still shed the virus even if vaccinated. This has not changed.

No covid vaccine to date was ever a perfect vaccine. They are all "leaky" vaccines, which is fine. But they have been like that from the outset, and delta has changed nothing.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/yes-vaccines-block-most-transmission-of-covid-19

That's from April. It's now out of date.

Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage. Take the time to wrap your head around this so you don't go around accusing people of spreading misinformation.

An apology would be nice once you've managed to grasp it

The first line of that piece says "Now scientists are trying to learn if vaccines stop transmissability" - does not seem to be based on any studies ( Not sure there are many as we only had vaccines a few months).

As vaccine efficacy is low against some strains (even lower in adenovirus vaccines for the variants other than delta) it will spread in the vaccinated and even make some sick.

I think the misinformation statement was wrong but I believe the poster is accurate in stating nothing has changed really.

TonyMaloney

timmyntc wrote: »

By reducing symptoms the vaccine reduce transmissibility - but the virus is still transmissible. You still shed the virus even if vaccinated. This has not changed.

No covid vaccine to date was ever a perfect vaccine. They are all "leaky" vaccines, which is fine. But they have been like that from the outset, and delta has changed nothing.

It is SIGNIFICANTLY leakier

Lets say you have a care home where a couple of feisty residents refuse the vax. Well prior to delta, if you vaxed everyone else around them then they were highly unlikely to get covid as the vaccinated acted as a barrier. They were less likely to get covid, and if they did, they were less likely to spread it as they were unlikely to become symptomatic.

That is gone. Or lessened to the extent that it can no longer be relied upon.

That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Because of delta we have lost a huge advantage.

Nonsense or wishful thinking. The only advantage we have lost it spreads quicker. So we have to get the vaccines out quicker. The government have announced the vaccine program will be ramping up. There is also evidence emerging it helps to prevent transmission. The vaccines are still effective.


We are vaccinating 200k/300k a week. We may see rises in cases but as July/August progresses they will significantly drop again.

So what’s your solution Tony? Should we keep restrictions and lockdowns indefinately? Shut the airports?

JMNolan

Hopefully the link between cases and hospitalizations/deaths is broken. A fourth wave in Ireland is meaningless in that case. Might as well talk about a wave in flu.

Micky 32

TonyMaloney wrote: »

That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.

It seems your beloved NPHET might not even understand how vaccines work


https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1410673460624465920?s=21

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

It is SIGNIFICANTLY leakier

Lets say you have a care home where a couple of feisty residents refuse the vax. Well prior to delta, if you vaxed everyone else around them then they were highly unlikely to get covid as the vaccinated acted as a barrier. They were less likely to get covid, and if they did, they were less likely to spread it as they were unlikely to become symptomatic.

That is gone. Or lessened to the extent that it can no longer be relied upon.

That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.

So are we going to wait until a new vaccine for the delta variant is created? Another 6 months?

Then what about the Gamma variant (The next name for the next new variant) - back to lockdown for that until the next vaccine?

robinph

TonyMaloney wrote: »

It is SIGNIFICANTLY leakier

Lets say you have a care home where a couple of feisty residents refuse the vax. Well prior to delta, if you vaxed everyone else around them then they were highly unlikely to get covid as the vaccinated acted as a barrier. They were less likely to get covid, and if they did, they were less likely to spread it as they were unlikely to become symptomatic.

That is gone. Or lessened to the extent that it can no longer be relied upon.

That is where NPHET and others see many of the hospitalisations and deaths coming from. I see hardly anyone that has managed to come to terms with this yet.

No. The vaccinated people would still get infected with covid. The vaccine just gives their immune system a head start in fighting it off.

If you test them they may show as positive for covid, but as their immune system is already primed to deal with it the fact that they caught the virus from another resident is hopefully mostly irrelevant. That the virus then can't take hold in them reduces the chances of them passing it on to someone else.

The vaccine doesn't stop you catching covid, it stops you getting ill from it... Hopefully.

Mimon

topdecko wrote: »

If as seems possible we get a load of JandJ vaccines in the coming weeks and bump up our baseline vaccination level then we should be in a better position in 2-3 weeks. however this creation of deadlines and then recurrent delays and u turns is creating alot of unrest. some of the policies aren't thought through either and are announced off the cuff in an attempt to appease the public.
the idea of vaccinated people having more rights is surely unconstitutional especially when the youth are yet again massively disadvantaged by a condition which doesn't really impact them. You would have the bizzare situation where a young person couldn't get served in a cafe yet would almost certainly make up a large part of the workforce in said cafes. We need coherence and appropriate level of response..... cases rising in UK but what about hospitalizations and deaths..

This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.

TonyMaloney

robinph wrote: »

No. The vaccinated people would still get infected with covid. The vaccine just gives their immune system a head start in fighting it off.

If you test them they may show as positive for covid, but as their immune system is already primed to deal with it the fact that they caught the virus from another resident is hopefully mostly irrelevant. That the virus then can't take hold in them reduces the chances of them passing it on to someone else.

The vaccine doesn't stop you catching covid, it stops you getting ill from it... Hopefully.

I don't really know what to say to all this.

The vaccines were helping to dramatically reduce transmission. Against a virus whose biggest strength is it's transmit-ability, that was huge.

It wasn't expected. As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta. Fortunately with MRNA tech it's hopefully only a temporary thing.

Our current vaccines are still bloody fantastic. Get them into you as fast as you can.

FileNotFound

Mimon wrote: »

This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.

While I actually was of the opinion we should have been giving more freedom to vaccinated people months ago - from a purely get the economy running and reduce my future tax burden perspective.


Just because others have done things does not mean they are fair or right - economically makes sense (so fine by me - already being taxed to pay for one recession, don't need another national debt to clear), you have to accept that those who were and have been low risk from covid being told F you at the end is pretty poor.

Also other nations brought these measures in way back which made sense - we will soon be chasing UK numbers of vaccination so I think the vaccine passport boat kinds floated away a while back.

dominatinMC

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't really know what to say to all this.

The vaccines were helping to dramatically reduce transmission. Against a virus whose biggest strength is it's transmit-ability, that was huge.

It wasn't expected. As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta. Fortunately with MRNA tech it's hopefully only a temporary thing.

Our current vaccines are still bloody fantastic. Get them into you as fast as you can.

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

timmyntc

Mimon wrote: »

This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.

No its not. In the EU countries that have "vaccine passes" - they also accept proof of a negative covid test.
So there is no discrimination against those not vaccinated.

The proposal in Ireland is unique in that a negative test is not enough!
Which is strange, because even with a vaccine you can get covid and spread it - a negative test is actually safer than just a vaccine. But sure Tony knows best!

namloc1980

Mimon wrote: »

This is happening in most of Europe and people are not complaining and running to cry about the unconstitutionality of it, they are getting on with it without begrudging the vaccinated.

No it isn't. European countries also use antigen testing for their corona passes. The initial suggestion from NPHET / government was that we would only use vaccine status (or evidence of recovery) for our passes. Completely different and very discriminatory.

Doctor Jimbob

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

It's been the same with every variant so far.

Stage 1: Reports suggest the vaccines don't work as well/aren't as effective against transmission.

Stage 2: Hold on lads, maybe the vaccines work better than we thought.

Stage 3: Never mind, vaccines work grand on the variant.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't really know what to say to all this.

The vaccines were helping to dramatically reduce transmission. Against a virus whose biggest strength is it's transmit-ability, that was huge.

It wasn't expected. As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta. Fortunately with MRNA tech it's hopefully only a temporary thing.

Our current vaccines are still bloody fantastic. Get them into you as fast as you can.

Its epic transmissability was expected though (Sure delta is quicker) but it was a novel virus in a world population with no defenses. We saw that in italy march 2020 - 1 month to cripple the nations health service.

I imagine most here will or have got a vaccine - but there will be a point where we return to normal and people will still continue to die from or with covid. Thats a reality according to WHO when they say it will be indemic.

Danzy

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I keep hearing a variation of this repeated - "the vaccines were not designed to stop infection, they just give the person protection from serious disease".
And while technically correct it completely ignores that with original covid and other known variants, the vaccines did largely provide immunity from infection.

It was a huge advantage that we've effectively lost to delta.
Vaccinated people helped to protect the non-vaccinated, but that is as good as over now.

That's just being dramatic for it's own sake.

Your post is ignoring evidence, it's catastrophizing.

Danzy

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

No, it hasn't been lost or anything close.

TonyMaloney

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

Sorry, I don't mean lost. Not entirely.
But it's reduced to the point where a vaccinated person could no longer be thought of as a barrier to the non-vaccinated.

FileNotFound

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

The latest study being touted about the J&J vaccine in SA I think seems to indicate its highly effective.

The UK hospital and mortality figures would seem to indicate AZ is highly effective.

Haven't seen anything to say they actually are not beyond the usual scaremongering to be fair.

One thing NPHET could do is actually find decent studies and inform the nation on them in a nice clear way.

brickster69

Interesting article from Spain. A few weeks behind the UK so looking ominous for continued travel soon.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-07-02/spain-records-new-rise-in-coronavirus-infection-rate-as-cases-among-young-people-continue-to-spike.html

dominatinMC

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

Weakened rather than lost
A newer generation of vaccines will restore it
Rinse and repeat
The oft quoted about worldwide vaccinations line 'we're not safe untill everyone's safe' is true here
When large countries are mostly unvaccinated ,then newer dangerous variants will always pop up
The virus can't talk,So its impossible to completely seal Ireland from one of them and as we know,once its in,its in

dominatinMC

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sorry, I don't mean lost. Not entirely.
But it's reduced to the point where a vaccinated person could no longer be thought of as a barrier to the non-vaccinated.

I'm not even sure this is the case. A lot of conflicting science and reporting out there.

Turtwig

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

dominatinMC

FileNotFound wrote: »

The latest study being touted about the J&J vaccine in SA I think seems to indicate its highly effective.

The UK hospital and mortality figures would seem to indicate AZ is highly effective.

Haven't seen anything to say they actually are not beyond the usual scaremongering to be fair.

One thing NPHET could do is actually find decent studies and inform the nation on them in a nice clear way.

Good point. Every day I hear someone on the radio say vaccines are less effective (Stephen Donnelly on Pat Kenny yesterday for example), but it depends on which metric you're using to determine efficacy. PHE showed that the vaccines are actually more effective against hospitalisation for Delta than Alpha. But of course, we can't have such positivity being reported..:pac:

robinph

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50% percent. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

If that were what was happening then the numbers for cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK would have the decimal point two places further to the right.