The Delta variant

FileNotFound

OwenM wrote: »

Depends on how the message is framed, the old saying comes to mind "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything" The two plots below are from the same dataset, just framed differently.

The one on the left might be posted by the chicken lickens, telling us that numbers in hospital have doubled in a month OMG exponential growth :eek::eek::eek: (exponential is one of the most abused terms), the one on the right?

Something else that cannot be ignored is that the UK is having 60k people in stadiums for the Euros and the pubs are heaving.

They are open on a scale so far ahead of us that it really needs to be acknowledged.

Our next step was a few people sat at tables socially distanced in a controlled environment.

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

Something else that cannot be ignored is that the UK is having 60k people in stadiums for the Euros and the pubs are heaving.

They are open on a scale so far ahead of us that it really needs to be acknowledged.

Our next step was a few people sat at tables socially distanced in a controlled environment.

A better country to watch is probably Portugal.
They're not as far along with delta as the UK, and have more similar vax levels to us.

Where Portugal differ from us is that they've applied relatively heavy restrictions to the area around Lisbon.

cheezums

Still no evidence that the latest variant is;

1. Deadlier
2. Resistant to vaccines

Danzy

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I fully agree with you that the word exponential is thrown around without people understanding it.

It is thrown around in an exponential fashion.

brickster69

Hospital admissions up over 300 for the first time

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1410978831729635328

Chris_5339762

Despite now a decent bit of evidence from the UK that vaccinations have stopped Delta causing deaths/hospitalisations to exponentially grow, it is incredibly horribly lethal according to our health minister.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

The minister said the potential danger of the Delta variant is "very, very substantial".

He said: "We are seeing this huge surge in the UK and now in other European countries. In Scotland they are recording the highest ever case rate since the pandemic began, in spite of having a very large portion of their population vaccinated.

"This Delta variant, in spite of the progress made on vaccinations, is deadly serious," he said.

The minister said there is some analysis showing the Delta variant is about as severe as the Alpha variant in terms of the likelihood of hospitalisation.

But there is other analysis from the UK, he said, showing it could be two-and-a-half times more likely to lead to hospitalisation.

And of course RTE, in their article about Ireland buying a million doses from Romania, fantastic news of course, have dedicated far more words to Donnelly and his bad news.

kieran26

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic.

So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

I bet they have.. and as soon as this all dies down they'll be the frist onses to book flights. Of course he's going to defend his business. Thats his Job.

Supercell

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

Danzy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic.

So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

He has a point, there is a balance that must be struck between public health and public well being.

If more opening up meant only 500 to 1k dead between now and Christmas, that would have to be balanced with the damage if not opening up.

timmyntc

Supercell wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

1 data point does not make a trend.
yes hospitalisations are increasing (obviously, so are cases - but cases are much much higher) - but they are not jumping by even faster than before. He highlighted 1 data point at the end and is implying its a full trend.
Dishonest and sensationalist is right.

wadacrack

timmyntc wrote: »

1 data point does not make a trend.
yes hospitalisations are increasing (obviously, so are cases - but cases are much much higher) - but they are not jumping by even faster than before. He highlighted 1 data point at the end and is implying its a full trend.
Dishonest and sensationalist is right.

Theirs a lag with hospitalizations and cases . Last Friday their were 15,000- cases in the UK and this week 27,000 cases. So hospitalization's are going to surge to some extent

SusanC10

Supercell wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

Apologies if this hasbern dealt with before, but is there a breakdown by age groups of hospitalisations in the UK ?

Danzy

wadacrack wrote: »

Theirs a lag with hospitalizations and cases . Last Friday their were 15,000- cases in the UK and this week 27,000 cases. So hospitalization's are going to surge to some extent

We won't know if it is a problem for another ten days.

The Euros are going to see a big surge.

RIGOLO

Beasty wrote: »

Provide a reputable source or do not post in this thread again

wow ... someone isnt handling lockdown very well....

seems very tetchy .....

Paddigol

Can people not grasp that it doesn't matter how effective the vaccines are at preventing illness - if you're not vaccinated YOU'RE NOT VACCINATED, AND YOU HAVE NO PROTECTION. What has that got to do with devaluing the effectiveness of vaccines?? Until we have a critical mass of people fully vaccinated then there are a huge number of people left exposed to the Delta variant of the virus where age and fitness is no longer the great shield it was last year - but sure open on up so the lads can have their pints indoors, yeah?

Paddigol

snowcat wrote: »

Loads as most media have reported. Blood clots myocarditis etc. Most not reported, we should have a log of every person that dies after receiving a vaccine. Similiar to the Covid log. Died after getting a vaccine not because of the vaccine.

Oh, well as long as some keyboard expert on social media says 'loads' then that's all the evidence we need.

D.Q

Paddigol wrote: »

Can people not grasp that it doesn't matter how effective the vaccines are at preventing illness - if you're not vaccinated YOU'RE NOT VACCINATED, AND YOU HAVE NO PROTECTION. What has that got to do with devaluing the effectiveness of vaccines?? Until we have a critical mass of people fully vaccinated then there are a huge number of people left exposed to the Delta variant of the virus where age and fitness is no longer the great shield it was last year - but sure open on up so the lads can have their pints indoors, yeah?

Capital letters don't achieve anything you melt

jakiah

Paddigol wrote: »

Can people not grasp that it doesn't matter how effective the vaccines are at preventing illness - if you're not vaccinated YOU'RE NOT VACCINATED, AND YOU HAVE NO PROTECTION.

The vulnerable are almost all vaccinated. Those who arent can isolate for the couple of weeks until they are. Covid is not really dangerous for those who still arent vaccinated, and Delta is a less dangerous variant again. We opened last summer with no vaccines.

Enough is enough now.

saabsaab

jakiah wrote: »

The vulnerable are almost all vaccinated. Those who arent can isolate for the couple of weeks until they are. Covid is not really dangerous for those who still arent vaccinated, and Delta is a less dangerous variant again. We opened last summer with no vaccines.

Enough is enough now.

Delta wasn't there last Summer. Anyway, look what happened after last Summer when people returned from abroad!

Micky 32

jakiah wrote: »

The vulnerable are almost all vaccinated. Those who arent can isolate for the couple of weeks until they are. Covid is not really dangerous for those who still arent vaccinated, and Delta is a less dangerous variant again. We opened last summer with no vaccines.

Enough is enough now.

I have always said it would be the last quarter of the year before we get out of this since the vaccines were announced. Cases will rise and possibly hospitalizations over the next month or so. Not surprising since opening more last month.

However as more and more jabs are administered there will be a tipping point and come autumn things will be a lot better.

Bit cynical

Paddigol wrote: »

Can people not grasp that it doesn't matter how effective the vaccines are at preventing illness - if you're not vaccinated YOU'RE NOT VACCINATED, AND YOU HAVE NO PROTECTION. What has that got to do with devaluing the effectiveness of vaccines?? Until we have a critical mass of people fully vaccinated then there are a huge number of people left exposed to the Delta variant of the virus where age and fitness is no longer the great shield it was last year - but sure open on up so the lads can have their pints indoors, yeah?

Age and fitness still good protection against serious illness and death from Covid. The numbers from the UK, who are more advanced than Ireland in vaccinations, show this. Though case numbers are quite high there, hospitalisations and deaths though rising somewhat are nowhere near following the patterns of earlier waves due to elderly and vulnerable being vaccinated.

Kermit.de.frog

Supercell wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

This is the big test we have been waiting for on the vaccine front. Govts will be watching these stats like hawks. Hopefully we'll get through the next few weeks with a contained number of hospitalisations.

saabsaab

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have always said it would be the last quarter of the year before we get out of this since the vaccines were announced. Cases will rise and possibly hospitalizations over the next month or so. Not surprising since opening more last month.

However as more and more jabs are administered there will be a tipping point and come autumn things will be a lot better.

Looking like you were right. I'd say without the imported Delta we would be there about now.

Delta currently has mortality rate in UK of 0.3%, given significant vaccinated population and infection mostly in younger people.

Alpha mortality rate in UK was 2%, due to unvaccinated population and different strain etc.

“The case-fatality rate for Delta (0.3%) at this time appears to be lower than that for Alpha (2%). Per Cillian De Gascun

You can kinda see the logic of what they are doing in UK as they are a more risk taking country than us, given their size, attitudes and history.

They had the biggest empire in the world just over 100 years ago.

Life is a balancing act of risks and rewards.

Its nature.

You are never going to lock down for 0.1% risk, but you have to when its 2%.

UK have always been more tolerant than us about death.

As are the US.

We are watching some strange social experiment in UK.

Flu mortality is around 0.1%.

They reckon 0.3% is tolerable to them in the short term until they get over this wave and immunity grows.

As Chris Whitty said recently about said approach " cautiosly optimistic".

Once you get to 80-90% of the population vaccinated/prior infections,
I would guesstimate mortality rate in UK and ireland will fall to 0.1%.

It will be flu and we'lll just have to live with it.

Easier said than done (for me included), but its probably what our gp's will say come autumn time.

TefalBrain

Supercell wrote: »

This guy is a bit of a sensationalist, but facts are facts, he's been a bit of a canary in the coal mine all throughout this.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1410827940624015364?s=20

:pac: That guy is more than a bit of a sensationalist to be fair. He's an absolute doom merchant

TefalBrain

cheezums wrote: »

Still no evidence that the latest variant is;

1. Deadlier
2. Resistant to vaccines

All the evidence points to it being less harmless than the original virus.

purplefields

jakiah wrote: »

The vulnerable are almost all vaccinated. Those who arent can isolate for the couple of weeks until they are. Covid is not really dangerous for those who still arent vaccinated, and Delta is a less dangerous variant again. We opened last summer with no vaccines.

Enough is enough now.

Where are you getting that Delta is a less dangerous variant?
It's much more transmissible than alpha, hence it's dominance.

Look what it did to India.

TefalBrain

purplefields wrote: »

Where are you getting that Delta is a less dangerous variant?
It's much more transmissible than alpha, hence it's dominance.

Look what it did to India.

More transmissible yes, less dangerous yes.

purplefields

TefalBrain wrote: »

More transmissible yes, less dangerous yes.

What exactly do you mean by 'dangerous'?

A percentage increase in transmissibility is far worse than a corresponding percentage increase in case to fatality ratio. Maths is why.

purplefields

purplefields wrote: »

What exactly do you mean by 'dangerous'?

A percentage increase in transmissibility is far worse than a corresponding percentage increase in case to fatality ratio. Maths is why.

“The case-fatality rate for Delta (0.3%) at this time appears to be lower than that for Alpha (2%)". Per Cillian De Gascun


This is from UK where immunity is at around 60%.

In autumn it will be 80-90% given infections and vaccinations.

I would guess case fatality rates will fall lower in autum to flu mortality rates.