The Delta variant

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

More virulent strain emerged that did little real damage.

Delta in UK comes to mind as things stand. Assuming things stay on course as they are.

Given vaccine rollout in pharmacies and the new stocks (Romania was it who sold us 1 million doses). We should hit current UK figures in the next few weeks.

That combined with a few more weeks positive data from the UK trial (assumption but looking good) means all this can be put behind us.

Just need the cowards in Gov to make a call and do what we pay them to do.

I'm under strict orders to be incredibly polite, so I couldn't possibly comment on any of this.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm under strict orders to be incredibly polite, so I couldn't possibly comment on any of this.

Polite discussion is allowed so.

Given MM has us on hold for 2 or so weeks we'll get to reassess if he made an error then.

Such is life.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Woody79 wrote: »

Why did Wuhan strain kill 1700 in ireland with a tiny wave 1, but killed 2300 in wave 3 when there was far more cases.

The original Wuhan strain actually never made it to Ireland. I assume you're referring to the prevalent strains at the time.


In the earliest days, nobody knew how to treat Covid. Only half a year later - completely different situation, as there were better and more effective treatment methods in hospitals. This brought down the mortality significantly.

TefalBrain

Woody79 wrote: »

Exactly my point.

You' ll never know these things.

You keep looking for exact black and white answers in the middle of a pandemic.

Why did Wuhan strain kill 1700 in ireland with a tiny wave 1, but killed 2300 in wave 3 when there was far more cases.

1 in 30 people were infected in my county at any one time over Christmas.

I knew very few getting it in March 2020.

I think strains are getting more infectous, but all less severe over time.

In a year or two covid will barely be talked about.

Case fatality rate has fallen from 2% to 0.3% in UK due to many reasons. The flu is 0.1%.

Main reason is vaccination.

Vaccination has speeded up what would have happened in nature eventually.

With a lot less death suffering and economic problems.

Covid would have killed 50-100 million, 100 years ago without vaccinations, modern healthcare.

Whereas we have kept it at a few million to date.

Exactly the point an expert was making on BBC world radio yesterday.

Covid is spreading more but it's less deadly now than any stage since this started.

We'll laugh when we look back in a years time at how cautious we are today in Ireland. The rest of Europe has figured out this is no more than a bad cold for the unvaccinated at this stage.

Wolf359f

TefalBrain wrote: »

Exactly the point an expert was making on BBC world radio yesterday.

Covid is spreading more but it's less deadly now than any stage since this started.

We'll laugh when we look back in a years time at how cautious we are today in Ireland. The rest of Europe has figured out this is no more than a bad cold for the unvaccinated at this stage.

You need to rephrase that, Covid is just as deadly, however due to vaccines the risk at a population level is reduced. Risk on an individual level for an unvaccinated person seems to be the same.

If we had Delta in all previous waves, would it have been just a head cold for the unvaccinated?

speckle

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

The original Wuhan strain actually never made it to Ireland. I assume you're referring to the prevalent strains at the time.

There was one sequenced case very early on in the southwest(afaicr) when we were doing very little sequencing from the presumed country of origin. This was on nextstrain.org then seemed to dissappear for awhile and was then reinstated. Has it dissapeared again?

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1410995341567184896?s=21

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

You need to rephrase that, Covid is just as deadly, however due to vaccines the risk at a population level is reduced. Risk on an individual level for an unvaccinated person seems to be the same.

If we had Delta in all previous waves, would it have been just a head cold for the unvaccinated?

Pure scutter.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

The original Wuhan [URL="https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global"]strain[/URL] actually never made it to Ireland. I assume you're referring to the prevalent strains at the time.


In the earliest days, nobody knew how to treat Covid. Only half a year later - completely different situation, as there were better and more effective treatment methods in hospitals. This brought down the mortality significantly.

It was essentially the Wuhan strain, similar R rate 2-3.

I dont think treatment has really improved much tbh.

Your immune system gets the better of this virus or it does'nt.

Wolf359f

Woody79 wrote: »

Pure scutter.

Have you anything to add or just insults?

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Have you anything to add or just insults?

Your just so negative.......................

Wolf359f

Woody79 wrote: »

Your just so negative.......................

You're saying the Delta variant is not as serious as the Alpha variant. Or that the Delta variant causes less serious illness than Alpha without proving proof.

You only provide data on vaccine efficancy vs Delta, that doesn't show Delta causes less serious illness, just that vaccines work. To the unvaccinated, those who can't, or those immune suppressed, vaccine efficiency means **** all.

It's like 2 police officers going out on duty, one wears full body amour, the other can't. A 9mm round to the chest is less lethal to one, but causes serious illness and perhaps deaths to the other. In your eyes, being shot is nothing more than a punch in the gut, but for some it's a little more serious than that.

beggars_bush

The only reason the Delta variant is causing less deaths and hospitalisations is due to vaccination rate in older population

However as cases increase then its probable that hospital admissions will increase and so too those in ICU.

We're the only country in EU with land border with the UK where Delta is rampant.
Lots of NI and UK tourists all over the ROI on holidays

Fils

beggars_bush wrote: »

The only reason the Delta variant is causing less deaths and hospitalisations is due to vaccination rate in older population

However as cases increase then its probable that hospital admissions will increase and so too those in ICU.

We're the only country in EU with land border with the UK where Delta is rampant.
Lots of NI and UK tourists all over the ROI on holidays

You shouldn’t be blaming the British at all it originated from India.

Nozebleed

Fils wrote: »

You shouldn’t be blaming the British at all it originated from India.

the blame lies at the feet of your local TD who continuously kept the airport open.

Fils

Nozebleed wrote: »

the blame lies at the feet of your local TD who continuously kept the airport open.

He is on murder charge next week actually for it.

beggars_bush

Fils wrote: »

You shouldn’t be blaming the British at all it originated from India.

They failed to implement quarantine for travellers from India

brickster69

Delta plus seems to be in the majority in some places now.

https://twitter.com/MartinS11071824/status/1411190532932517890

Mimon

beggars_bush wrote: »

The only reason the Delta variant is causing less deaths and hospitalisations is due to vaccination rate in older population

However as cases increase then its probable that hospital admissions will increase and so too those in ICU.

We're the only country in EU with land border with the UK where Delta is rampant.
Lots of NI and UK tourists all over the ROI on holidays

Delta is already 70% of cases here as of yesterday.

Lumen

It's funny how we had several systems of objective nomenclature for variants until someone decided that it would be better to name them with Greek letters to avoid xenophobia, and now we have "Nepal mutation of the Delta variant".

Come back Pango, all is forgiven. :pac:

Ballynally

Woody79 wrote: »

I agree no mixed bag, over 90% hospital prevention is excellent.

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

brickster69

Some UK sequencing Data

https://twitter.com/CorinneReverbel/status/1410977367015710723

davemckenna25

Ballynally wrote: »

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

And what percentage of people under the age of 50 are fully vaccinated?

Or just a figure of the numbers under 50 fully vaccinated?

Bit cynical

Some charts of for the UK.

This first one shows cases (in dotted line) rescaled and superimposed on top of deaths over the course of the pandemic.

What we see from the above is that the usual pattern of deaths following cases by about two or three weeks no longer applies. There has been a rise in deaths but it is nowhere near as severe as in previous waves and it is lagging behind cases by a lot more than two weeks.

The second chart shows UK deaths per capita in an EU context.


Again we see a rise in deaths in the last couple of weeks but again, it is still very low by European standards.

Ballynally

Ballynally wrote: »

not only that, deaths in fully vaccinated people under 50 in the UK w Delta:..0 (yes, you read that right).

As someone told me recently, the vaccines declaw this virus and turn it into the 4 other coronaviruses (common colds). UK down to 0.3% mortality. UK and Ireland will be in a great place come September.

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

It's funny how we had several systems of objective nomenclature for variants until someone decided that it would be better to name them with Greek letters to avoid xenophobia, and now we have "Nepal mutation of the Delta variant".

Come back Pango, all is forgiven. :pac:

I thought all the variants start in Greece now.

FishOnABike

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought all the variants start in Greece now.

beggars_bush

beggars_bush wrote: »

They failed to implement quarantine for travellers from India

The uk implemented mandatory hotel quarantine before any other major European country and a week before Ireland.

Tyrone212

Aegir wrote: »

The uk implemented mandatory hotel quarantine before any other major European country and a week before Ireland.

There's no direct flights between Ireland and India. The UK added Pakistan and Bangladesh the same day and left out India as Boris was heading there for a brexit trade deal.

Then they eventually they added India the red list 3 weeks later. Over 20k landed in the UK in those 3 weeks from India trying to avoid the MHQ. They f up. Lets be honest for once.

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There's no direct flights between Ireland and India. The UK added Pakistan and Bangladesh the same day and left out India as Boris was heading there for a brexit trade deal.

There no direct flights from Haiti, Eritrea or Indonesia either, but they have just been put on the list of mandatory hotel quarantine.