The Delta variant

is_that_so

Danzy wrote: »

The Indian variant is a problem, highly transmissible but the reality is that mass vaccination has taken the sting out of it.

But NPHET using UK data as a model has added that sting back in!

TonyMaloney

Lumen wrote: »

Gascun says we're at 70% delta now (will confirm tomorrow). And those numbers are surely delayed due to the amount of time it takes to do the sequencing.

With that amount of delta we surely would have seen a significant jump already?

I can't find a reference but I'm sure I read somewhere that Dublin delta % was higher than elsewhere in the country, but this is the chart for Dublin from the latest epidemiology report.

The rise looks very mild, with doubling every 4 weeks.

The following chart is using very vague data from this article
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40327265.html

The numbers given are vague, the dates are vague - so this chart is pretty vague too, but gives a decent idea of what's going on beneath the surface.
It looks like we're about to enter a phase of real growth, having being pretty flat for months.

I wouldn't bother making any sort of projections with the data available, but I can very confidently say that your own projection of 800 cases per day in 78 days is way off.

We'll be seeing in four digit daily numbers before too long

MerlinSouthDub

TonyMaloney wrote: »

We'll be seeing in four digit daily numbers before too long

Agreed, we absolutely will. Look at Scotland with 3000 cases a day. But the good news is, it really won't matter. We can have all adults with one dose by end of July. 90%+ reduction in hospitalisations with one dose of Pfizer even for the Delta variant.

Lumen

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I wouldn't bother making any sort of projections with the data available, but I can very confidently say that your own projection of 800 cases per day in 78 days is way off.

Well it's a projection, not a prediction. The future depends on behaviours/restrictions and vaccines.

But I see nothing in the data to date to suggest that delta is driving cases to a concerning degree.

The date range you've charted, with a rise in delta % from near-zero to 70%, has seen a rise in our R number from 0.94 to 1.08 (source).

Meanwhile the R number in the UK is at 1.5.

Now obviously they are open indoors, and it's quite possible that this is the tinder that starts the fire, but again, Portugal and the UK both have special circumstances that may be driving their cases which don't apply to us (the UK's crowded housing, ethnic minorities & soccer, Portugal's influx of tourists).

Even with Portugal's doubling of cases every two weeks, rising hospitalisations ought to be snuffed out by vaccinations before they are filling hospitals to capacity. It just requires incompletely-vaccinated older people to be a bit careful for a few weeks.

Although I see the HSE is now bleating about being near capacity already, with near-zero Covid hospitalisations in mid-summer, to which I have no response which isn't composed of expletives.

TonyMaloney

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Agreed, we absolutely will. Look at Scotland with 3000 cases a day. But the good news is, it really won't matter. We can have all adults with one dose by end of July. 90%+ reduction in hospitalisations with one dose of Pfizer even for the Delta variant.

Yep. Fingers crossed.

If I'd posted that chart a month or so ago we'd be in trouble, but things are a lot different now.

That said, if you're not yet vaccinated then be careful for a while as there's going to be a lot of covid around in the coming months

TonyMaloney

Lumen wrote: »

Well it's a projection, not a prediction. The future depends on behaviours/restrictions and vaccines.

But I see nothing in the data to date to suggest that delta is driving cases to a concerning degree.

The date range you've charted, with a rise in delta % from near-zero to 70%, has seen a rise in our R number from 0.94 to 1.08 (source).

Meanwhile the R number in the UK is at 1.5.

Now obviously they are open indoors, and it's quite possible that this is the tinder that starts the fire, but again, Portugal and the UK both have special circumstances that may be driving their cases which don't apply to us (the UK's crowded housing, ethnic minorities & soccer, Portugal's influx of tourists).

Even with Portugal's doubling of cases every two weeks, rising hospitalisations ought to be snuffed out by vaccinations before they are filling hospitals to capacity. It just requires incompletely-vaccinated older people to be a bit careful for a few weeks.

Although I see the HSE is now bleating about being near capacity already, with near-zero Covid hospitalisations in mid-summer, to which I have no response which isn't composed of expletives.

I wouldn't bother with our R number right now. It's a combination of alpha and delta. Once delta is close to 100% of cases, then we'll get a truer sense of the R number.

NPHET are predicting that, as we're delaying reopening, things will fall somewhere between their no-delta scenario and their optimistic scenario (had we reopened further).
I'm happy enough to go along with that, vague as it is.

It's not going to be nothing though. Both hospitalisations and deaths will rise, but will hopefully be manageable.

Ficheall

Micky 32 wrote: »

You know for the first time since this shyte started i don’t care if there’s going to be 800 cases a day. It’s getting tiring now. I’m not that neurotic. I’m not even afraid of getting Covid 19 anymore. I’m fully vaxxed for a start and so are all my family ( ederly parents etc) and everyone else i know that’s old. On my travels around Ireland most old folk and vulnerable i meet are all vaxxed too. The ones i know waiting for their second jab are getting done this week or next.

Have you not been calling people doom mongers for over a year?

Congrats on you and yours being fully vaxxed - I'll care less about covid/restrictions in ~6-8 weeks when I, my parents, the rest of my family, and my friends are fully vaxxed too.

I presume with Delta, this crack where two people sleeping in the same bed, one gets covid and the other doesn't is no more now and that two people in the same bed will give it to each other rapid like?

Bit cynical

TonyMaloney wrote: »

The following chart is using very vague data from this article
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40327265.html

The numbers given are vague, the dates are vague - so this chart is pretty vague too, but gives a decent idea of what's going on beneath the surface.
It looks like we're about to enter a phase of real growth, having being pretty flat for months.

I wouldn't bother making any sort of projections with the data available, but I can very confidently say that your own projection of 800 cases per day in 78 days is way off.

We'll be seeing in four digit daily numbers before too long

I might be interpreting your chart incorrectly but if we are to expect the delta strain to push overall numbers up rapidly should we not be seeing more of a rise already. There is some rise but what your chart seems to show more of is delta supplanting other strains without a huge impact on overall cases.

Lumen

This is a bit of a "I don't know what a tracker is" thing, but I don't understand precisely the mechanism for how variant substitution works.

Hand waving about natural selection doesn't cut it.

Fils

Marine Layer wrote: »

I presume with Delta, this crack where two people sleeping in the same bed, one gets covid and the other doesn't is no more now and that two people in the same bed will give it to each other rapid like?

Can you maintain social distance of 1 metre?

bodhrandude

wadacrack wrote: »

We have moved on to some extent , we can do most things. People on here are acting like we are still having severe restrictions.

The rationale thing to do is to be cautious until the vast majority are vaccinated.

I cant think of anything worse than opening up too early and having to bring in retrictions. It happened in Chile and Russia recently.
The issue is getting overwhelmed again.

In real life people are enjoying the summer and don't care about indoor dining. Its fine outdoors

Not today by the looks of it, although Galway seems to be faring better with some dry spells between the showers.

https://twitter.com/BreweryTap2/status/1411657152167612416

is_that_so

Marine Layer wrote: »

I presume with Delta, this crack where two people sleeping in the same bed, one gets covid and the other doesn't is no more now and that two people in the same bed will give it to each other rapid like?

You'd probably need a clinical trial for that! They have been talking about full households now getting it.

brickster69

Catalonia taking off. Big % 15-29

https://twitter.com/vincentglad/status/1411675785409277955

Micky 32

Ficheall wrote: »

Have you not been calling people doom mongers for over a year?

Congrats on you and yours being fully vaxxed - I'll care less about covid/restrictions in ~6-8 weeks when I, my parents, the rest of my family, and my friends are fully vaxxed too.

Yep because there’s a fair share on them on here. Good on you that you’ll care less in 6 to 8 weeks because it can’t go on forever.

Interesting that my post seems to bug you considering it’s about getting on with life, but tough.

TonyMaloney

Bit cynical wrote: »

I might be interpreting your chart incorrectly but if we are to expect the delta strain to push overall numbers up rapidly should we not be seeing more of a rise already. There is some rise but what your chart seems to show more of is delta supplanting other strains without a huge impact on overall cases.

I'd hesitate using that chart to make any sort of precise prediction. As I said the numbers given are very vague.

But the gist of what you're saying sounds about right to me. I think we might already be seeing cases grow. It will become more obvious as alpha will soon be phased out.

I think we can say with a lot of confidence that we're at the start of the next wave.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'd hesitate using that chart to make any sort of precise prediction. As I said the numbers given are very vague.

But the gist of what you're saying sounds about right to me. I think we might already be seeing cases grow. It will become more obvious as alpha will soon be phased out.

I think we can say with a lot of confidence that we're at the start of the next wave.

Next wav of cases, quite likely but not hospital numbers. We've pretty much caught up with the UK in terms of percentages vaccinated. The only concern is the 50+ people still on a single dose of AZ.

Bicyclette

OwenM wrote: »

Next wav of cases, quite likely but not hospital numbers. We've pretty much caught up with the UK in terms of percentages vaccinated. The only concern is the 50+ people still on a single dose of AZ.

Hopefully they will all be fully vaccinated by the end of the month. Hubby, recently 62, got his second AZ on Friday in Limerick.

Its the young people who are working in bars and restaurants that worry me. Most of them haven't had their first dose, let alone their second. And they are going to be dealing close up with people who won't be wearing masks.

Bit cynical

TonyMaloney wrote: »

But the gist of what you're saying sounds about right to me. I think we might already be seeing cases grow. It will become more obvious as alpha will soon be phased out.

However this rise is very small so far yet delta is probably about 80% of cases now. The question I had is if we are expecting a rapid rise when delta reaches 95% or 100% why aren't we seeing more of a rise now?

I'm not an epidemiologist , but it seems to me that the rapid growth in some countries is more to do with opening up than the delta variant. I don't think we can use the rate at which it becomes dominant to reason about overall case numbers.

Valhallapt

Bit cynical wrote: »

However this rise is very small so far yet delta is probably about 80% of cases now. The question I had is if we are expecting a rapid rise when delta reaches 95% or 100% why aren't we seeing more of a rise now?

I'm not an epidemiologist , but it seems to me that the rapid growth in some countries is more to do with opening up than the delta variant. I don't think we can use the rate at which it becomes dominant to reason about overall case numbers.

The lockdown zealots grasping at straws to justify extending the lockdown

Bit cynical

Valhallapt wrote: »

The lockdown zealots grasping at straws to justify extending the lockdown

However I think everyone should have the chance to make their case and explain their position.

ACitizenErased

Interesting how the UK has had 3 days of reducing figures and their R actually decreased during the week.

Valhallapt

Bit cynical wrote: »

However I think everyone should have the chance to make their case and explain their position.

Data is data. NPHET inventing new statistics to try and make delta fourth wave correlate with high morbidity. We really need independent and trustworthy third party advice. NPHET has no credibility on antigen tests or data modelling. They should all public ally declare any business interests they have.

cheezums

the delta variant is a media/scientist hype job. the doom mongering should have been shut down hard and fast right at the start.

is_that_so

Valhallapt wrote: »

Data is data. NPHET inventing new statistics to try and make delta fourth wave correlate with high morbidity. We really need independent and trustworthy third party advice. NPHET has no credibility on antigen tests or data modelling. They should all public ally declare any business interests they have.

On the use of antigen tests I'd agree, modelling seems to be a combination of assumptions and just directly extrapolating from UK data. As someone pointed out earlier we are using 2% or 3% for the likely hospitalisation rate while the UK is below 2%.

Bit cynical

Valhallapt wrote: »

Data is data. NPHET inventing new statistics to try and make delta fourth wave correlate with high morbidity. We really need independent and trustworthy third party advice. NPHET has no credibility on antigen tests or data modelling. They should all public ally declare any business interests they have.

The new statistic of worry seems to be the "delta percentage" or the proportion of new infections which are of the delta strain.

amandstu

There seem to be a few anti Npheter's (and anti assorted politicians of choice) on these threads.

I can see why Nphet would be well advised (well likely prohibited ) not to publish its deliberations too openly but I wonder whether there is an argument for them to publish the detailed inner workings and deliberations of their projections and advisals in the medium term past.?

That might introduce an element of overall transparency which may not be so possible in real time.

is_that_so

amandstu wrote: »

There seem to be a few anti Npheter's (and anti assorted politicians of choice) on these threads.

I can see why Nphet would be well advised (well likely prohibited ) not to publish its deliberations too openly but I wonder whether there is an argument for them to publish the detailed inner workings and deliberations of their projections and advisals in the medium term past.?

That might introduce an element of overall transparency which may not be so possible in real time.

NPHET are all about being transparent but very poor at times telling people what they are doing or planning to do, especially their bosses. That's a communication issue and they have brought it on themselves to an extent.

TonyMaloney

Bit cynical wrote: »

However this rise is very small so far yet delta is probably about 80% of cases now. The question I had is if we are expecting a rapid rise when delta reaches 95% or 100% why aren't we seeing more of a rise now?

I'm not an epidemiologist , but it seems to me that the rapid growth in some countries is more to do with opening up than the delta variant. I don't think we can use the rate at which it becomes dominant to reason about overall case numbers.

Because declining alpha cases are masking deltas growth.

We're not as open as the UK so you'd hope our rate of growth won't be as bad.
However we're quite a bit more open than Portugal.
Most of those poor bastards are back under curfew.

Dr. Bre

I am deeply concerned