The Delta variant

Lumen

Valhallapt wrote: »

The lockdown zealots grasping at straws to justify extending the lockdown

Can we not have a discussion about data without motives being imputed?

B.A._Baracus

Lumen wrote: »

Can we not have a discussion about data without motives being imputed?

Not on the Internet

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Because declining alpha cases are masking deltas growth.

We're not as open as the UK so you'd hope our rate of growth won't be as bad.
However we're quite a bit more open than Portugal.
Most of those poor bastards are back under curfew.

How are we more open than Portugal. Give me a 11pm curfew any day if it means opening indoor hospitality. What can you do here after 11pm anyway. What's open here that is not in Portugal.

brickster69

Dr. Bre wrote: »

I am deeply concerned

Not nice is it ?

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

How are we more open than Portugal. Give me a 11pm curfew any day if it means opening indoor hospitality. What can you do here after 11pm anyway. What's open here that is not in Portugal.

Portugal has announced an 11pm curfew in 45 municipalities, including Porto and Lisbon, amid a rise in COVID cases.

The Portuguese government has ruled people will not be allowed in public spaces and should remain in their own homes between 11pm and 5am in those areas deemed "very high" or "high" risk.

The municipalities, the country's equivalent to local council areas, affected by the new restrictions will also see restaurants and cafes close at 10.30pm during the week and 3.30pm at the weekend and bank holidays.

The government also opted to maintain a restriction on travel to and from ​​Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML) between 3pm on 2 July and 6am on 5 July for those who do not have a certificate showing they have been vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19 or received a negative test.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-portugal-announces-new-restrictions-including-curfew-in-45-areas-amid-rising-coronavirus-cases-12347196

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Portugal has announced an 11pm curfew in 45 municipalities, including Porto and Lisbon, amid a rise in COVID cases.

The Portuguese government has ruled people will not be allowed in public spaces and should remain in their own homes between 11pm and 5am in those areas deemed "very high" or "high" risk.

The municipalities, the country's equivalent to local council areas, affected by the new restrictions will also see restaurants and cafes close at 10.30pm during the week and 3.30pm at the weekend and bank holidays.

The government also opted to maintain a restriction on travel to and from ​​Lisbon Metropolitan Area (AML) between 3pm on 2 July and 6am on 5 July for those who do not have a certificate showing they have been vaccinated, recovered from COVID-19 or received a negative test.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-portugal-announces-new-restrictions-including-curfew-in-45-areas-amid-rising-coronavirus-cases-12347196

Ok so what is open here that not is open there, you said we are much more open. Are their restaurants and pubs open.

Bit cynical

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Because declining alpha cases are masking deltas growth.

Because delta is more infectious it is getting to available hosts quicker than alpha and so becoming dominant but I don't think it is the case that that same rate of growth will continue once it is dominant. My reasoning for this is that it still has to find hosts which at any given moment are of limited supply.

While it is not dominant it is infecting those who would otherwise catch alpha, hence alphas decline. So delta growing at the expense of alpha but once alpha is gone, that advantage for delta is also gone.

This is why I think we're not seeing a significant rise in cases as delta takes over.

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

Ok so what is open here that not is open there, you said we are much more open. Are their restaurants and pubs open.

Niall, I don't know much more than what's in those few paragraphs.

I've been to Portugal a few times though. Love it.
Lisbon has a particularly vibrant night life. It's fantastic. Bars everywhere, people all over the streets having a laugh.
An 11pm curfew there is going to hurt.
But it's effectively a 3.30pm curfew in the weekends, with bars and restaurants shutting super early.

Frankly I think they're pretty obviously under significantly heavier restrictions than us, and it's bizarre that you'd even question it.

TonyMaloney

Bit cynical wrote: »

Because delta is more infectious it is getting to available hosts quicker than alpha and so becoming dominant but I don't think it is the case that that same rate of growth will continue once it is dominant. My reasoning for this is that it still has to find hosts which at any given moment are of limited supply.

While it is not dominant it is infecting those who would otherwise catch alpha, hence alphas decline. So delta growing at the expense of alpha but once alpha is gone, that advantage for delta is also gone.

This is why I think we're not seeing a significant rise in cases as delta takes over.

I think it will go much as it has in other countries.

Look we'll soon see

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Niall, I don't know much more than what's in those few paragraphs.

I've been to Portugal a few times though. Love it.
Lisbon has a particularly vibrant night life. It's fantastic. Bars everywhere, people all over the streets having a laugh.
An 11pm curfew there is going to hurt.
But it's effectively a 3.30pm curfew in the weekends, with bars and restaurants shutting super early.

Frankly I think they're pretty obviously under significantly heavier restrictions than us, and it's bizarre that you'd even question it.

Hang on, you do realise we can't open bars and restaurants here indoors and you think they are significantly more restricted. Really.

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

Hang on, you do realise we can't open bars and restaurants here indoors and you think they are significantly more restricted. Really.

Yes, Niall. 1000%

I've no idea where you're coming from. What you're saying doesn't make any sense

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yes, Niall. 1000%

I've no idea where you're coming from. What you're saying doesn't make any sense

So what is open here that is not open in Portugal, you still haven't told me or are you on a wind up with the severely more restricted thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnLuJ-qTZvk

Delta update ireland Dr. John

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

So what is open here that is not open in Portugal, you still haven't told me or are you on a wind up with the severely more restricted thing.

Much of the country, Niall.

From 11pm everything is shut.
They're not quite the night owls that their Spanish neighbors are, but because of the weather they stay up and go out very late over there.
This curfew is going to be very painful socially and economically.

And that's only one of the restrictions.

I'm done here, Niall. I've no more to say.

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Much of the country, Niall.

From 11pm everything is shut.
They're not quite the night owls that their Spanish neighbors are, but because of the weather they stay up and go out very late over there.
This curfew is going to be very painful socially and economically.

And that's only one of the restrictions.

I'm done here, Niall. I've no more to say.

Whats open here after 11pm, you don't think keeping pubs closed for 18 months is not painful socially and economically here. Why is more painful over there than here. At least they can make money up to 11, they can't here.

pc7

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnLuJ-qTZvk

Delta update ireland Dr. John

Tldw, any chance of summary?

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Tldw, any chance of summary?

We are fooked.

pc7

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We are fooked.

I’ll have another glass of vino so!

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

I’ll have another glass of vino so!

Dr. John is cautiously optimistic about ireland.

High Vaccination uptake + cautious re-opening.

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1411782254775390211?s=21

Fils

pc7 wrote: »

I’ll have another glass of vino so!

The pup won’t last forever.

ACitizenErased

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1411782254775390211?s=21

Just looking at the source, very interesting.
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1411730026635087877?s=20
Same happening in 30-60s.
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1411730217429868556?s=20

bloopy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Just looking at the source, very interesting.
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1411730026635087877?s=20
Same happening in 30-60s.
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1411730217429868556?s=20

Very interesting.
I'm really curious to know what is going on over there.
Interstingly, the other chart he has up (not shown in your comment) appears to show a continued rise in cases in ages 65+ (apart from ages 85-89).
What is happening over there?

ACitizenErased

bloopy wrote: »

Very interesting.
I'm really curious to know what is going on over there.
Interstingly, the other chart he has up (not shown in your comment) appears to show a continued rise in cases in ages 65+ (apart from ages 85-89).
What is happening over there?

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1411730491028512774?s=20
He comments that the growth rate seems to be less steep in the over 65s. I wonder what their vaccine uptake is like.

Wolf359f

bloopy wrote: »

Very interesting.
I'm really curious to know what is going on over there.
Interstingly, the other chart he has up (not shown in your comment) appears to show a continued rise in cases in ages 65+ (apart from ages 85-89).
What is happening over there?

It's interesting that the growth rates in the 75-84 are growing and will peak higher than any other age group. Are they all out down the bingo halls or something?
Only other thing could be nursing homes, but HCW's still wear proper PPE I'm sure?

Valhallapt

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Because declining alpha cases are masking deltas growth.

We're not as open as the UK so you'd hope our rate of growth won't be as bad.
However we're quite a bit more open than Portugal.
Most of those poor bastards are back under curfew.

This is rubbish, I’m in the Algarve now, it’s far more open than Ireland. This and next weekend they closed the bars and restaurants at 3.30pm and then 10.30 during the week, but everything is open and pretty normal outside that. You are badly misinformed or just gas lighting.

Ireland has the longest strictest lockdown in Europe by far.

TonyMaloney

Valhallapt wrote: »

This is rubbish, I’m in the Algarve now, it’s far more open than Ireland. This and next weekend they closed the bars and restaurants at 3.30pm and then 10.30 during the week, but everything is open and pretty normal outside that. You are badly misinformed or just gas lighting.

Ireland has the longest strictest lockdown in Europe by far.

wtf are you talking about?

that sounds really ****

Valhallapt

TonyMaloney wrote: »

wtf are you talking about?

that sounds really ****

Yea at 3.30pm next Saturday and Sunday we will have to follow Irish rules. Take away food and pints sitting outdoor with no service… it’s almost as bad as Ireland is everyday. Anyway my local has live music tonight, it’s too warm to sit inside but if I want I can. Going to the shopping centre today, might have my Starbucks sitting inside to feel a bit normal

Happydays2020

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yea at 3.30pm next Saturday and Sunday we will have to follow Irish rules. Take away food and pints sitting outdoor with no service… it’s almost as bad as Ireland is everyday. Anyway my local has live music tonight, it’s too warm to sit inside but if I want I can. Going to the shopping centre today, might have my Starbucks sitting inside to feel a bit normal

I must say it is quite bizarre that you are over there experiencing how it is in reality, and having lived in Ireland through the restrictions, you have a clear comparator. Yet, you have a randomer on the Internet being rude and swearing at you that you do not understand that the restrictions in Portugal are much tougher than in Ireland. Jesus wept.

Boggles

Valhallapt wrote: »

Yea at 3.30pm next Saturday and Sunday we will have to follow Irish rules. Take away food and pints sitting outdoor with no service

I have no idea what is happening in parts of Portugal, but that isn't the rules here.