The Delta variant

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your central thesis, but it's (probably unintentionally) misleading that you've used different end dates for the graphs due to the availability of data.

For instance, the cases data is a week fresher than the positivity rate data.

True, but the trend was already significantly very much up on the cases by the 30th of June. Time will tell. My suspicion is that cases will hit a vaccine and prior infection immunity wall soon in the UK and start trending downwards again. We shall see what happens. I have no good explanation for the Indian data - unless it's just they only collect small amounts of it.

One thing's for sure - if we get another wave like the Christmas one we are all screwed and the vaccines are ineffective. Not what I believe is going to happen, but that's what the data would tell us.

Micky 32

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The rate of hospitalisation will fall as more people get vaccinated, and as the age of those infected goes down even further.

Using the hospitalisation rate from previous waves will be miles off the right answer.

For some reason certain people forget that we now have vaccines and still think it’s 2020. It strengthens my belief some don’t want this ending. In the next couple of months millions more will be in arms. The landscape is rapidly changing for the good.

Micky 32

Micky 32 wrote: »

For some reason certain people forget that we now have vaccines and still think it’s 2020. It strengthens my belief some don’t want this ending. In the next couple of months millions more will be in arms. The landscape is rapidly changing for the good.

For those people who believe it's still 2020 - what is the endgame for you? Permanent lockdowns? People dying because they don't get diagnosed in time? Millions on 20 year waiting lists until they become terminally ill? The complete collapse of whole sections of the economy? We are rapidly getting there already. At some point a call would have to be made to end this.

Fortunately I see great evidence that the vaccines will work to a degree to allow proper reopening of society.

TonyMaloney

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The rate of hospitalisation will fall as more people get vaccinated, and as the age of those infected goes down even further.

Using the hospitalisation rate from previous waves will be miles off the right answer.

I know

cheezums

Biscuitus wrote: »

The problem is it could mutate into a variant that the current vaccines are ineffective against which would completely undo all the progress made so far sending is back into summer 2020.

And an asteroid could hit us tomorrow. Why worry about this ****? What good does it achieve?

brickster69

Holland starting a bit like Spain & Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/equibotanica/status/1412284788334108672

brickster69

brickster69 wrote: »

Holland starting a bit like Spain & Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/equibotanica/status/1412284788334108672

Doesn't really look like Spain and Portugal 2/3 weeks ago.

ACitizenErased

800 less cases in Scotland today compared with last Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1412419323461881874?s=20

ACitizenErased

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

With all vaccines 60 odd per cent stopping delta infection its going to be difficult to keep r rate below 1. Not sure how this is going to play out.I reckon there will still be many deaths yet in europe. herd immunity is not happening.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

Hopefully the "delta surge" was at least partially a function of pockets of poor vaccine uptake

ACitizenErased

More on Scotland and some parts of England, there is some plateauing/reductions happening. Hopefully this is sustained.

TonyMaloney

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"Having plateaued for around three days, the seven-day average has dropped for two days running, and now stands at 3,216. "

Unfortunately there's already one hospital under considerable strain.

As double vaxxed staff will often get sick again, many hospitals are in for some challenging staffing issues again I guess.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232.amp

Boggles

The UK has recorded 28,773 new coronavirus cases, according to the latest update to the government’s Covid dashboard. That is the highest daily total on this measure since the end of January (29,079 cases on 29 January). And the total number of new cases over the past seven days is up 49% on the total for the previous week

They will comfortably hit Javid's prediction of 50k per day by Monday week.

brickster69

https://twitter.com/James1uk/status/1412429344534843397

brickster69

Boggles wrote: »

They will comfortably hit Javid's prediction of 50k per day by Monday week.

I thought cases don't matter anymore ?

is_that_so

Think this is relevant here.
"As of the end of Monday, 86.2% of British adults had received one dose of a coronavirus vaccination and 64.3% had received two doses."

We are at 50% and 70% respectively and are aiming for about 67% and 82% for the end of this month.

OwenM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Unfortunately there's already one hospital under considerable strain.

As double vaxxed staff will often get sick again, many hospitals are in for some challenging staffing issues again I guess.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-57735232.amp

If that is going to happen in any significant number then why bother with vaccines at all?

Have you way to quantify 'often'?

Or is it just procedural self isolation that might cause shortages of staff - because it seems they are dumping that now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57733276

wadacrack

brickster69 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/James1uk/status/1412429344534843397

I'd be fearful of relatively harsh restrictions being brought back here in October or so. I don't think the public could handle it again.

On the other hand vaccination rates likely to be very high by then, hopefully it will be enough

brickster69

wadacrack wrote: »

I'd be fearful of relatively harsh restrictions being brought back here in October or so. I don't think the public could handle it again.

On the other hand vaccination rates likely to be very high by then, hopefully it will be enough

At least you have a good guinea pig

TonyMaloney

OwenM wrote: »

If that is going to happen in any significant number then why bother with vaccines at all?

Have you way to quantify 'often'?

Or is it just procedural self isolation that might cause shortages of staff - because it seems they are dumping that now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57733276

Why bother with vaccines? To avoid severe illness and death.
They're still fantastic at doing that.

I can't yet quantify how often it's going to happen, but if it's occurring in one Scottish hospital it's quite likely happening in many

Lyle

EDIT:

My previous post here was way off, so I've deleted it. I won't be relying on that twitter page for info anymore. This is the actual hospital admissions data from various sources. It's not great, but still needs more context. Half of all admissions now are under 45 years old which hopefully means a) less or no deaths and b) a faster discharge of admissions from this age cohort.

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1412426776643522569?s=20

https://mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1412427154315436037

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1412434233923149825

brickster69

Spanish health ministry recommends the immediate closure of all nightclubs in Spain to the Government.

https://www.ideal.es/sociedad/salud/sanidad-propone-cerrar-20210706173505-ntrc.html

FileNotFound

brickster69 wrote: »

Spanish health ministry recommends the immediate closure of all nightclubs in Spain to the Government.

https://www.ideal.es/sociedad/salud/sanidad-propone-cerrar-20210706173505-ntrc.html

Imagine that - who thought a hot sweaty packed nightclub would be a bad idea.

If spain and portugal have been at this kind of thing there numbers are going to be totally out of whack.

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

Imagine that - who thought a hot sweaty packed nightclub would be a bad idea.

If spain and portugal have been at this kind of thing there numbers are going to be totally out of whack.

Portugal absolutely have not. They've been ostensibly quite cautious, but unlucky.

Floppybits

The Delta variant is dead now there is the lambda Variant.

is_that_so

Floppybits wrote: »

The Delta variant is dead now there is the lambda Variant.

It's still a variant of interest not a VOC. No panic on it by the look of things.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/06/lambda-what-do-we-know-about-the-latest-covid-variant-flagged-by-the-who

brickster69

Greece cases up 150% in a week, a bit like Holland that one.

Portugal, Spain, Cyprus and Greece looking like holidays are going to be off limits in a few weeks time. Looking inevitable to be fair.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/decrease-in-effectiveness-of-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-reported-in-israel-40620038.html


MRNA less effective against Delta.


They all seem to protect 60 odd % against infection and over 90 odd % against severe illness.

Fook all difference between any of them.

Get the one first one available.

Micky 32

Woody79 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/decrease-in-effectiveness-of-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-reported-in-israel-40620038.html


MRNA less effective against Delta.


They all seem to protect 60 odd % against infection and over 90 odd % against severe illness.

Fook all difference between any of them.

Get the one first one available.

This thread maybe of some interest regarding this :

https://twitter.com/shalituri/status/1412424696491089926?s=21