The Delta variant

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117813460#Comment_117813460

Sure. Please direct your anger to the professors and researchers behind that study. It is they who try to mislead not me. Care to explain what is misleading on their find that the vaccinated were ultimately 13x as likely to be infected as those who were infected previously, and 27x more likely to be symptomatic. Plus what I forgot to mention that vaccinated people were also at greater risk for covid related hospitalization compared to those who were previously infected?

It is all stated right in conclusions part of the study.

Unicorn Milk Latte

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117813795#Comment_117813795

The study looks at how many people got sick twice with Covid since January 2021 compared to getting vaccinated and getting sick once afterwards. There are extremely few who got vaccinated who got sick within 7 months, and even fewer who got sick a second time, after getting sick first in Jan/Feb 2021, before being vaccinated.

Entirely unsurprising.

The 'misleading' part is to make some insane antivax narrative - 'vaccines are not really effective' - out of a study that has entirely unsurprising results. The study never questions vaccine effectiveness.

What's the story with the new variant c12

Spreading twice as fast as Delta

Originated in South Africa and now found in concert goers in Cornwall

Also several times removed,the most varied so far from the original virus so potentially a problem for the vaccinated

Long thread 👇

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1432200392776028162?s=20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117822930#Comment_117822930

That thread is pure horseshit even by his standards.

There have 101 cases of C.1.2 to date with almost all of them from South Africa. The earliest known samples are from last May so his claim it was just identified is nonsense. It's early frequency may have been a founder effect and it is has shown no signs of significant growth since then. Obviously never say never but it may well be on the way to extinction.

Deeper Blue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117822930#Comment_117822930

Honestly linking to that guy's Twitter should be banned. It's non-stop hysterical nonsense and borderline misinformation. He's a disgrace.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117822930#Comment_117822930

Trust Eric Ding to get all excited over that. Were it not for his Harvard background, the man would not be out of place working for The Sun or The Star with his dramatic, bombastic statements (wow, danger alert, etc.) laden with hyperbole and conjecture (if, could, potential, maybe).

Personally, I haven't heard anything about this, a quick google search returned the usual click-bait stuff, but until the mainstream media or proper scientists start talking about it, I won't be worried.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117812678#Comment_117812678

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117813460#Comment_117813460

See

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1

SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021. The increased risk was significant (P<0.001) for symptomatic disease as well. When allowing the infection to occur at any time before vaccination (from March 2020 to February 2021), evidence of waning natural immunity was demonstrated, though SARS-CoV-2 naïve vaccinees had a 5.96-fold (95% CI, 4.85 to 7.33) increased risk for breakthrough infection and a 7.13-fold (95% CI, 5.51 to 9.21) increased risk for symptomatic disease. SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees were also at a greater risk for COVID-19-related-hospitalizations compared to those that were previously infected.

This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.

The only one deliberately trying to mislead is you, by omitting the first part of the conclusions in the study. Natural immunity IS better against delta variant than that induced by Pfizer vaccine.

And no its not all people infected with delta variant previously - they address this in the study by expanding the dataset to 2020 when delta was not prevalent in Israel, and against that immunity the vaccinated still came out worse, but less so.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823376#Comment_117823376

It's worse than that. Had a read through some of the replies to that thread. Came across at least two that contemplated suicide. It's at the point he's actually causing harm.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823500#Comment_117823500

Is there really "better" immunity? I mean, you are either immune or you are not. If you are vaccinated but you later contract the virus, your body is still better equipped to deal with the virus and reduce its impact. People will get immunity either "naturally" or through vaccination, either way being vaccinated is a good thing.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Regarding emerging variants: new SARS-COV-2 mutations show up all the time, this is perfectly normal for virus evolution. Some have an 'advantage' over others, and become dominant. Like Delta replacing Alpha in Ireland, which replaced earlier variants. Delta is more infectious than Alpha, which is more infectious than earlier variants.

There have been hundreds of variants of SARS-COV-2.

Overview with timeline and which variants are relevant in which region:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

The goal of the virus is to replicate as much as possible. Being more lethal is not an evolutionary advantage. That does not mean that a new variant can't be more lethal, that is a possibility, but not an advantage: when a virus kills all hosts, it can't spread further.

AFAIK, the technical development of the first Covid vaccines was completed as early as March 2020, everything that came afterwards was testing for efficacy and safety, and the approval process. So vaccines were technically designed for pre-Alpha variants. Modifying a vaccine for a new variant is comparatively trivial, not difficult, not a lengthy process.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823848#Comment_117823848

Of course there is - otherwise why would there be any distinction between vaccines? They all perform differently and offer varying levels of protection. Same is true for an actual infection. It doesnt mean we should force everyone to get the "best" type of immunity, but we should just acknowledge that exposure grants immunity that is just as valid as vaccine immunity

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823916#Comment_117823916

Maybe I'm taking too literal a definition (I don't know the actual medical definition of immune is) but surely varying levels of protection doesn't equal immunity. I mean, if you still get the virus, then surely you weren't immune.

But my point is, the vaccine has either made you immune or not. If not you still get the virus, but it has given you a level of protection. You will still get natural immunity, but with a much lower risk of needing medical assistance which is only a good thing (for the individual themself and everyone else through less pressure on the health service). Either way, the vaccine is only a positive regardless of any of this "better immunity" stuff.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824006#Comment_117824006

Immunity != immune. Thats probably the confusion.

When they talk about immunity, they just mean protection through your immune system - which has been trained either from previous infection, or through a vaccine. What we are seeing now, is that prior infection from any variant, gives better protection than the vaccines - not by a massive amount, but significant enough. In absolute terms, they both give great protection, which is the main point. Natural immunity is just as good as vaccine immunity

mcmoustache

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824048#Comment_117824048

If prior infection is better, then the best approach would be to be vaccinated first so that acquiring immunity through infection afterwards carries less risk of a bad time.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117825146#Comment_117825146

Unless the "better" results from infection are just survivor bias.

I'm not a scientist

But I'm pretty sure the virus doesn't have the ability to think or plan or be evil

It just similar to bacteria becoming immune to antibiotics in that it adapts to grow better

Its not planning to kill people or make them sick who are not able for it

That's just a net effect

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117825146#Comment_117825146

Original antigenic sin may be an issue with that - OAS means that your first immune response to a pathogen is the same one you make the 2nd and 3rd and 4th+ times exposed to it. So if you are "trained" on a vaccine with a subunit protein (spike) you may be limited to that response next time you come into contact with the virus.

So a latter infection might not produce a "better" immunity than your original vaccination. It's not clear if this effect occurs with SARS-COV-2 but its a possibility.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117826148#Comment_117826148

It's an interesting area to speculate about but it might work the other way round. I've read informed speculation the vaccination provides broader protection (against multiple variants) than infection, precisely because the vaccine is less specific. We just don't know. What we do know is that the vaccine is much, much safer than infection.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117399951#Comment_117399951

Ah someone who has had both. They are not both the exact same symptoms

I see RTE news has discovered C12

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

NI/ROI 7 day rolling average cases

godzilla1989

Think this thread needs an update on Delta severity as it’s seems pretty clear right now Delta is very mild compared to previous strains in terms of fatality

Since June we’ve had 90,000 cases and 140 deaths

Most of those cases have been Delta

Pre June before Delta we had 264,000 cases and 4972 deaths

As we know most of those 90,000 cases since June are from the unvaccinated people, as last we heard 10% of daily cases are in fully vaccinated people, makes sense as vaccines are supposedly 90% efficacious

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/covid-wave-5500144-Jul2021/%3Famp%3D1

So 10% of 90,000 is 9,000

9,000 less 90,000 = 81,000

I haven’t read about many vaccinated people dying of Covid here in Ireland so I will assume those 140 deaths are all unvaccinated silly people

81,000 unvaccinated cases\140 deaths = 0.2% case fatality rate, ( about flu level death )

Pre Delta

264,000 cases/ 4972 deaths = 1.9% case fatality rate ( nasty virus about 10 times higher death rate than Delta and Flu )

So doesn’t that 90,000 cases ( mostly unvaccinated cases ) and 140 deaths ( mostly or all unvaccinated ) since June basically prove the Delta hype has been completely overblown and it’s now a flu to unvaccinated in terms of death rate and probably more like a common cold to fully vaccinated as we are more protected

I honestly feel much better having done those numbers

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848140#Comment_117848140

Delta is mild compared to previous strains?

Seems it maybe resulting in twice the hospitalization rate compared to previous strains:

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210830/delta-variant-doubles-hospitalization-risk-study

CFR varies based on many factors, mainly age. Since the oldest are more at risk and have a higher chance of death but are for the most part all fully vaccinated, the population CFR will have dropped. That doesn't mean Delta is less lethal. You need to look at the CFR in different age groups, you can't just use a population level one.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848140#Comment_117848140

UK : Alpha was 2%. Delta 0.2%.

Would love to think its weakening.

Don't think that's true.

Its the vaccines.

Maybe the next variant will be less severe.

godzilla1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848160#Comment_117848160

Ok

I’ll do that one as well

140 deaths and 90,000 cases

Let’s assume 10% of cases are over 70 year olds

They were when I last checked, cocooning well I suppose and avoiding infection

I’ll assume all those 140 deaths were old people, over 70 ok 👍

90,000\ 10% = 9,000 cases in over 70 year olds

9,000 cases/140 deaths = 1.5% CFR for over 70’s

And 0% CFR for under 70s, no one under 70 died and mostly unvaccinated btw

So Delta is still way weaker

As case fatality rate pre Delta was almost 10% in over 70s

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

godzilla1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848178#Comment_117848178

How is it the vaccines if most daily cases are unvaccinated people?

We are told 10% of daily cases here are in fully vaccinated people other 90% are unvaccinated

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848197#Comment_117848197

You're assuming far too much.

Can you not use the correct figures?

Since 8th May, there has been 183 deaths:

35-44: 2 deaths

45-54: 8 deaths

55-64: 15 deaths

All the reports use a 65-74 age bracket, but you somehow use a 70+ break, how so?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848206#Comment_117848206

PHE worked it out.

In general under 50, - 0% mortality

over 50 - greater than 1%.

There are exceptions.

Unvaccinated under 50's nearly always pull through, but vaccinated over 50's don't always.

It is still rare for vaccinated or unvaccinated under 50 to die of covid.

This is very general but based on phe data.

Vaccines blunt the disease, but dont stop it.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848206#Comment_117848206

Do you not read what you link? You linked an article earlier in response to Raind, I think that mentioned a figures of 20 or 25% of daily cases being fully vaccinated. You just use figures you make up to suite your narrative?

godzilla1989

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117848244#Comment_117848244

I said June not May

Anyway so what

90,000 cases and 183 deaths is 0.2% case fatality rate 😂

Still minuscule, absolutely tiny

Delta is killing no one here

You don’t like to hear that?

You’d prefer it didn’t?

Whats your point anyway?

Your trying to say Delta is dangerous and kills a lot?