The Delta variant

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-hospitalisation-delta-variant-b1865685.html

Unvaccinated twice as likely to be hospitalised with Delta than Alpha.

Pfzier two doses 96% protection from hospitalisation from delta.

AZ two doses 92% protection from hospitalisation from delta.

AZ protection may rise as slower to reach optimal protection.

wadacrack

Here is more information on the vaccines.

One dose quite effective after 21 days.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1404494080244162562

Tyrone212

People go overboard on the RTE are scare mongering just because everything isn't sunshine and lollipops 24 7. The newly released efficacy data after 2 doses is great and will ease any long term worries however this variant is much much more transmissible and a large section of 60 years olds only have 1 dose and aren't as protected as we would like.

Just over 25% of the adult population are fully vaccinated. Its over 50% in the UK and they've had to put the breaks on. Numbers are currently low in ireland and that's great but look how quickly the Kent variant took over at the end of last year. Until second doses increase dramatically we're vulnerable to another surge.

We're currently in a good position but that could change quickly if delta takes hold until more are vaccinated. Thats the truth. RTE reporting that this variant is more transmissible doesn't make them scare mongerers, its simply just a fact being reported on.

A dose of honesty instantly makes you a doom monger or you want another lock down etc from a large amount on here. Its just nonsense.

Watching ch4 news there some brilliant news
Latest data from PHE
2 jabs AstraZeneca 92% effective against hospitalisation
2 jabs Pfizer 96% effective against hospitalisation

So that's a knockout folks

Edit Snap I see the tweet above

Marine Layer

Marine Layer wrote: »

Watching ch4 news there some brilliant news
Latest data from PHE
2 jabs AstraZeneca 92% effective against hospitalisation
2 jabs Pfizer 96% effective against hospitalisation

So that's a knockout folks

Edit Snap I see the tweet above

Brilliant news.

Hopefully this changes the narrative that AZ is utterly useless for every person taking it and Pfzier is an unpeneterabal shield for every person taking it.

Your underlying health still has to be maintained whatever vaccine you get.

Vaccines are like insurance policies.

Pfzier is a slightly better policy (96%) but most would settle for (92%) AZ.

Whats more important from this data is to get protected asap than quibbling over brands. Either will in all liklihood save you from bad outcome.

saabsaab

It's a race between the variants and the vaccines roll out.

Jinglejangle69

Tyrone212 wrote: »

People go overboard on the RTE are scare mongering just because everything isn't sunshine and lollipops 24 7. The newly released efficacy data after 2 doses is great and will ease any long term worries however this variant is much much more transmissible and a large section of 60 years olds only have 1 dose and aren't as protected as we would like.

Just over 25% of the adult population are fully vaccinated. Its over 50% in the UK and they've had to put the breaks on. Numbers are currently low in ireland and that's great but look how quickly the Kent variant took over at the end of last year. Until second doses increase dramatically we're vulnerable to another surge.

We're currently in a good position but that could change quickly if delta takes hold until more are vaccinated. Thats the truth. RTE reporting that this variant is more transmissible doesn't make them scare mongerers, its simply just a fact being reported on.

A dose of honesty instantly makes you a doom monger or you want another lock down etc from a large amount on here. Its just nonsense.

But after one dose it just means they may get it with mild symptoms but won't end up in hospital or dying.

This is the fact most people are unaware of.

They are still protected against serious illness.

wadacrack

Tyrone212 wrote: »

People go overboard on the RTE are scare mongering just because everything isn't sunshine and lollipops 24 7. The newly released efficacy data after 2 doses is great and will ease any long term worries however this variant is much much more transmissible and a large section of 60 years olds only have 1 dose and aren't as protected as we would like.

Just over 25% of the adult population are fully vaccinated. Its over 50% in the UK and they've had to put the breaks on. Numbers are currently low in ireland and that's great but look how quickly the Kent variant took over at the end of last year. Until second doses increase dramatically we're vulnerable to another surge.

We're currently in a good position but that could change quickly if delta takes hold until more are vaccinated. Thats the truth. RTE reporting that this variant is more transmissible doesn't make them scare mongerers, its simply just a fact being reported on.

A dose of honesty instantly makes you a doom monger or you want another lock down etc from a large amount on here. Its just nonsense.

It seem any bit of bad news , alot of posters in here struggle to accept it.
No one loves the doom and gloom desite some on here might claim.

Anyway good news today about the cases and new evidence on the vaccines. Some posters might want to see a cautious approach until more have two doses others a more aggressive one. People should just respect both viewpoints.

niallo27

Tyrone212 wrote: »

People go overboard on the RTE are scare mongering just because everything isn't sunshine and lollipops 24 7. The newly released efficacy data after 2 doses is great and will ease any long term worries however this variant is much much more transmissible and a large section of 60 years olds only have 1 dose and aren't as protected as we would like.

Just over 25% of the adult population are fully vaccinated. Its over 50% in the UK and they've had to put the breaks on. Numbers are currently low in ireland and that's great but look how quickly the Kent variant took over at the end of last year. Until second doses increase dramatically we're vulnerable to another surge.

We're currently in a good position but that could change quickly if delta takes hold until more are vaccinated. Thats the truth. RTE reporting that this variant is more transmissible doesn't make them scare mongerers, its simply just a fact being reported on.

A dose of honesty instantly makes you a doom monger or you want another lock down etc from a large amount on here. Its just nonsense.

A dose of honesty. Did you read their latest headline.

Covid-19 variants increasing ability to dodge vaccines - Scally

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0614/1227925-ireland-covid/

niallo27

saabsaab wrote: »

It's a race between the variants and the vaccines roll out.

No it's not, the vulnerable are vaccinated. Who are we actually protecting from getting sick now.

Jinglejangle69

niallo27 wrote: »

A dose of honesty. Did you read their latest headline.

Covid-19 variants increasing ability to dodge vaccines - Scally

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0614/1227925-ireland-covid/

How does he get away with telling complete lies???

Jinglejangle69

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

But after one does it just means they may get it with mild symptoms but won't end up in hospital or dying.

This is the fact most people are unaware of.

They are still protected against serious illness.

There are important caveats
Much of the studying is being done in a still not normal fully open society and 2,there's still not enough information

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1404439262246887428?s=20

saabsaab

niallo27 wrote: »

A dose of honesty. Did you read their latest headline.

Covid-19 variants increasing ability to dodge vaccines - Scally

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0614/1227925-ireland-covid/

What is incorrect?

screamer

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

But after one does it just means they may get it with mild symptoms but won't end up in hospital or dying.

This is the fact most people are unaware of.

They are still protected against serious illness.

And that’s great, but we need more people vaccinated or it will spread and put people in hospital. We’ve got the summer to catch up and get a critical mass vaccinated, I hope supply chains keep delivering and people stay getting vaccinated.

niallo27

saabsaab wrote: »

What is incorrect?

What variant has dodged the vaccine.

Jinglejangle69

screamer wrote: »

And that’s great, but we need more people vaccinated or it will spread and put people in hospital. We’ve got the summer to catch up and get a critical mass vaccinated, I hope supply chains keep delivering and people stay getting vaccinated.

How many will it put in hospital?

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

So where does this leave those that have had the Jansen vaccine?

Unloved.

Data will be harder to find.

Im sure its around the 95% ballpark too.

It was effective against SA strain.

The british love AZ so will always give it the benefit of the doubt and analyse AZ data properly.

The rest of europe are trying to shove it under a bus with mixing and matching which may be a tad premature.

niallo27

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

How many will it put in hospital?

According to the latest modelling from nphet somewhere between 100 and 3.7 million. Best be cautious.

Jinglejangle69

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

How many will it put in hospital?

The more fully vaccinated before we open the Aviva to Roman bath orgies the better
The GB government think that's 60% plus

The Scotland study in the lancet tweet suggests Delta puts younger more affluent cohorts into hospital

SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness
Aziz Sheikh
Jim McMenamin
Bob Taylor
Chris Robertsonon behalf ofPublic Health Scotland and the EAVE II Collaborators Published:June 14, 2021DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01358-1
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On May 19, 2021, the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC), formerly known as the Indian VOC or B 1.617.2, became the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in Scotland. The Alpha VOC (formerly known as the Kent VOC, B.1.1.7, or S gene negative) had been the dominant strain previously, but it has rapidly been replaced (appendix p 1).
Samples were analysed using ThermoFisher's TaqPath RT-PCR, which tests for the presence of three target genes from SARS-CoV-2. S gene-negative samples had a deletion in S gene of B.1.1.7 (Alpha VOC) at position 69-70, with cycle threshold (Ct) values less than 30 for at least one of the OR and N genes. S gene-positive samples had Ct values less than 30 for the S gene and valid Ct values for the other two genes. In contrast, a weak S gene-positive sample had a Ct of 30 or less for S. Sequencing data from Scotland has found that for April 1 to May 28, 2021, the latest date until which data were available, 97% of S gene positive cases sequenced in Scotland were the Delta variant and that 99% of Delta variants were S gene positive.
• View related content for this article

EAVE II is a Scotland-wide COVID-19 surveillance platform that has been used to track and forecast the epidemiology of COVID-19, inform risk stratification, and investigate vaccine effectiveness and safety.1, 2, 3, 4 It comprises national health-care datasets on 5·4 million people (about 99% of the Scottish population) linked through Scotland's unique Community Health Index number.
We used the EAVE II platform to undertake a cohort analysis to describe the demographic profile of COVID-19 patients, investigate the risk of hospital admission for COVID-19, and estimate vaccine effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 hospital admissions in S gene-positive cases. We also employed a test-negative design to estimate vaccine effectiveness against risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.5 This analysis was based upon all individuals who have a PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 in the study period, and it compares the proportions positive among individuals vaccinated at the time of the swab test with those unvaccinated when they are tested, adjusting for demographic and temporal covariates.
Building on methods that have previously been described in detail, we defined a COVID-19 hospital admission as being within 14 days of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.3, 5 Individuals who tested positive within 2 days after a hospital admission were also included. Individuals tested during a hospital stay from day 3 onwards were excluded. Hospital-acquired COVID-19 infections were excluded.
Our analysis covered the period from April 1 to June 6, 2021, for the demographic distribution of cases. By April 1, 2021, 44·7% of the population in Scotland had received one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and 7·6% had received two doses. Among people aged 65 years or older, the percentages were 91·2% and 15·9%, respectively. By the end of the study period (ie, June 6, 2021), 59·4% had received one dose and 39·4% two doses; the corresponding proportions were 91·7% and 88·8%, respectively for those aged 65 years or older. Distributions of first dose vaccine uptakes by age, deprivation, and vaccine type are shown in the appendix (p 1–2).
There were 19 543 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections over the period of interest, of whom 377 were admitted to hospital for COVID-19; 7723 (39·5%) of these cases and 134 (35·5%) hospital admissions were in those who were S gene-positive (appendix p 3).
S gene-positive cases occurred in all ages, with a greater proportion of those S gene-positive aged 5–9 years compared to S gene-negative cases (appendix p 2). There was a slight inverse deprivation gradient with S gene-positive cases disproportionally seen in the most socioeconomically affluent quintile. Most cases (70%) had no underlying relevant comorbidities. 70% of S gene-positive cases had not had any COVID-19 vaccination doses, compared to 75% of S gene-negative cases.
The Cox regression analysis for time to hospital admission found that S gene-positive cases were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admission: hazard ratio (HR) 1·85 (95% CI 1·39–2·47) when compared to S gene-negative cases, after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, temporal trend, and comorbidities. A greater number of COVID-19 relevant comorbidities increased the risk of COVID-19 hospital admission (appendix p 3).
Overall, a strong vaccine effect did not clearly manifest until at least 28 days after the first vaccine dose (HR 0·32, 95% CI 0·22–0·46; appendix p 3). Among S gene-negative cases, the effect of vaccination (at least 28 days after first or second dose) was to reduce the risk of hospital admission (HR 0·28, 95% CI 0·18–0·43) compared to unvaccinated. The corresponding hazard ratio for risk of hospital admission for S gene-positive cases was 0·38 (95% CI 0·24–0·58), with an interaction test p value of 0·19, suggesting that there was no evidence of a differential vaccine effect on hospital admissions among those first testing positive (appendix p 4).
Considering the whole population cohort (rather than just hospital cases), the test-negative analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness in preventing RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that, compared to those unvaccinated, at least 14 days after the second dose, BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine) offered very good protection: 92% (95% CI 90–93) S gene-negative, 79% (75–82) S gene-positive. Protection associated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine) was, however, substantial but reduced: 73% (95% CI 66–78) for S gene-negative cases versus 60% (53–66) for those S gene-positive (appendix p 6). These estimates were obtained from a generalised additive logistic model adjusting for age, temporal trend when the swab was taken, and number of previous tests using splines plus sex and deprivation. As there was a trend in vaccine uptake and a trend to increasing Delta variant, the temporal adjustment with a general trend might not fully account for these changes. Also, no formal significance test to compare the vaccines was done. Similar changes in the vaccine effects for at least 14 days post second dose were seen for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine when restricting the analysis to those reporting symptoms at the time of test, but with wider confidence intervals associated with the reduced sample size. For the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, the change was greater as the S gene-negative vaccine effect was higher (appendix p 7). These results are consistent with the Delta VOC vaccine effects published by Public Health England.6
In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. Both the Oxford–AstraZeneca and Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines were effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation in people with the Delta VOC, but these effects on infection appeared to be diminished when compared to those with the Alpha VOC. We had insufficient numbers of hospital admissions to compare between vaccines in this respect. The Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine appeared less effective than the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in those with the Delta VOC. Given the observational nature of these data, estimates of vaccine effectiveness need to be interpreted with caution.

Jinglejangle69

niallo27 wrote: »

According to the latest modelling from nphet somewhere between 100 and 3.7 million. Best be cautious.

My point exactly.

Hospitalisations are bottomed out.

The most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Young people rarely end up in hospital.

There won't be an overwhelming of the hospitals.

PokeHerKing

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

My point exactly.

Hospitalisations are bottomed out.

The most vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Young people rarely end up in hospital.

There won't be an overwhelming of the hospitals.

Majority of English patients are under 50 according to sky news tonight.

Tyrone212

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

But after one dose it just means they may get it with mild symptoms but won't end up in hospital or dying.

This is the fact most people are unaware of.

They are still protected against serious illness.

That's a false blanket statement and nothing factual about it. Risk of hospitalisation is cut by 71% after 1 dose of AstraZeneca which is the majority of 60 year olds currently in ireland. How in the name of Jesus does that mean they won't end up in hospital or dying after 1 dose? This is the most basic of stuff.

Jinglejangle69

Tyrone212 wrote: »

That's a false blanket statement and nothing factual about it. Risk of hospitalisation is cut by 71% after 1 dose of AstraZeneca which is the majority of 60 year olds currently in ireland. How in the name of Jesus does that mean they won't end up in hospital or dying? This is the most basic of stuff.

Risk of catching it with mild symptoms is cut to 71% I thought?

screamer

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

How many will it put in hospital?

How many will they get vaccinated by the end of the summer?

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Unloved.

Data will be harder to find.

Im sure its around the 95% ballpark too.

It was effective against SA strain.

The british love AZ so will always give it the benefit of the doubt and analyse AZ data properly.

The rest of europe are trying to shove it under a bus with mixing and matching which may be a tad premature.

They obviously love the Pfizer one as well I guess as we have the data for that.

I presume it’s just that the uk haven’t been using the Jansen one long enough to have any data, but we still need it.

ceadaoin.

According to British researchers the main symptoms of the Delta variant are more akin to a cold. There is no evidence of more severe illness and the vaccines work against it so what is the panic? I've also read that even those admitted to hospitals are in less severe condition than previously. Some people are just thriving on the fear and drama at this stage.

The Delta variant, which now accounts for the vast majority of the Covid-19 cases in the UK is not presenting with classic symptoms but is more like a bad cold, a leading researcher has warned.

Data from the ZOE COVID study at King’s College London said the top symptoms are headache, followed by runny nose and sore throat.

Symptoms reported to the ZOE COVID app suggest that the Delta variant suggest fever and cough are less common than with previous variants and loss of smell is not even in the top ten, said study lead Professor Tim Spector in his weekly update.

Good news surely?

Tyrone212

Tyrone212 wrote: »

That's a false blanket statement and nothing factual about it. Risk of hospitalisation is cut by 71% after 1 dose of AstraZeneca which is the majority of 60 year olds currently in ireland. How in the name of Jesus does that mean they won't end up in hospital or dying after 1 dose? This is the most basic of stuff.

Is it though?

If you have no underlying conditions, one dose is probably close to 100% probability of keeping you out of hospital. In the first instance your not expecting it to put you in hospital (as you are a normal healthy person), but this gives your body a head start to fighting the infection properly from day 1 (virus is not novel to your immune system). The second dose is to strengthen and mature your immunity.

Furze99

ceadaoin. wrote: »

According to British researchers the main symptoms of the Delta variant are more akin to a cold.

You sound like Johnson, Trump or Bolsonaro with that statement!

The fact alone that Johnson is willing to undermine the wave of enthusiasm for his great vaccine programme by stalling for a month should give considerable pause for thought. That's not done lightly.

Also consider that AZ has been a workhouse vaccine in the UK.

Then consider our programme and who is most exposed.

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

They obviously love the Pfizer one as well I guess as we have the data for that.

I presume it’s just that the uk haven’t been using the Jansen one long enough to have any data, but we still need it.

Of course.

Pfzier is the best vaccine for europe in the middle of a pandemic because:

1. It works very quickly on the body.
2. It has a relatively good safety profile.

Every vaccine has pro's and con's.

Its great that we have so many.

tom1ie

niallo27 wrote: »

No it's not, the vulnerable are vaccinated. Who are we actually protecting from getting sick now.

I’ve asked this on two separate occasions here and haven’t got a straight answer.

As above if vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated why should it matter if we have a high caseload?
It shouldn’t translate into high hospital cases as the most at risk are vaccinated.

Are we saying delta is more deadly (I don’t at spreading I mean at harming an individual), than the original?