Russia - threadbanned users in OP

the scale of this miscalculation by Putin is just staggering

ronivek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834280#Comment_118834280

This idea that the only thing Ukraine needs or wants is weapons is clearly ridiculous; and in particular the weapons and quantities that Ireland can provide.

There are tens of thousands of emergency workers also there working in horrific conditions but according to you the only thing that Ukraine needs is more weapons because sure that's going to kick Russia out immediately and solve every problem. Indeed Ireland's pittance of 100 Javelins will send Russia packing before the supplies even reach the country I'm sure; job done!

Maybe spare a thought for a medical workers who might appreciate a few extra fully equipped ambulances, who might be crying out for sterile medical equipment so that the child who just lost his leg might at least be able to stay alive rather than die in agony with a preventable infection.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834778#Comment_118834778

Russia will be isolated from the west for the next few decades for sure, but Ukraine too will be utterly ruined. Their economy was largely based on low-value stuff like agriculture exports (wheat) and minerals, and most of their factories are now bombed to crap.

Their economy was already small Timmy and like you say laregly based on what you note. However those same resources have one singular advantage; they're bloody hard to blow up. It's a lot easier to put a factory out of action than a field as it were. They're also very valuable assets for the future rebuilding of the place. Quite a bit of Ukraine's natural resources are still under the ground(and sea) and European help will get them out. Never mind that more will want to buy a European and in time EU Ukraine's assets than Russian. Yes their economy was small, but they've got a lot more potential buyers and business partners than they had before putin's jackboots stamped in.

So many of their women and children have fled which will leave them with an even worse demographic crisis than they had pre-war. And this all gets worse as the war is prolonged and more and more people flee.

And those women and kids left their husbands, brothers, fathers, friends and homes behind. These are not mostly male economic migrants we've seen elsewhere. IMHO many if not most will return.

I also don't think the war will be prolonged. If putin is thinking along those lines he's an even bigger fool than we judged him to be after he started this. His country and his cronies are being hit by ever tighter sanctions, his economy is dropping, inlfation is going only one way and his money costs more to print than it's worth, his army has made progress yes, but it's slow and land is far easier to take than to hold. Especially when faced with the best supported, best funded, best armed, best intel supplied resistance army in history whose land you've just stolen. Plus many of their loved ones are already safe in other countries very friendly to you and your cause. A man, or woman for that matter, fighting for their land will fight all the harder knowing their loved ones can't be touched by their enemy.

As for territory, Russia wont hold on to anything west of Dnieper but Ukraine wont be able to retake much of the land already taken either Melitopol, Mariupol, Berdyansk, half of Kherson will stay under Russian control unless the Russians voluntarily pull out in exchange for some Ukrainian compromises (neutrality/non-NATO etc)

Like I reckoned Donbas is gone and I say goodbye and thanks Vlad. Crimea is a total loss. It always had a high Russian population and that's even more the case since Russia annexed it. The corridor is still in play. Again it depends on how much control they can exert. When the official shooting stops they're still having to deal with a majority Ukrainian population, armed to the teeth, wanting them dead. In the Donbas they have far more local support. The Russian separatists want them there and many if not ultimately most Ukrainian patriots will leave(and I'd encourage them to).

GM228

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1507380932298391556?t=cFugv-WirSnRbAcORpY38A&s=19

DontHitTheDitch

Russia admitting defeat. By claiming they 'successfully' failed to take the major cities. The only question now is when they will start the Special Military Run-Like-F*+K.

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834927#Comment_118834927

It's far more obvious that that. The Ukrainians are hunting them as a tactic.

Facilitated I am assuming by "private" surveillance assistance from the West.

If I were a Russian General there currently I'd be throwing my phone in the river.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834951#Comment_118834951

Well, well,well.....remember how they were insisting for the first two weeks of the war that the aim was to "denazify" and "demilitarise" Ukraine.

GM228

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834969#Comment_118834969

It's called saving face:-

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1507380935238561795?t=v7xtvDM-Oi-TYAD2zIg16g&s=19

briany

Good video, here, showing a time lapse of the different polities which have existed within the borders of current-day Ukraine since 600 BC up 'til now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98Oy7NgFnek

In short, it's been a diverse history. Putin's assertion that Russians and Ukrainians are historically one people is questionable, to say the least.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834670#Comment_118834670

It is a bit of a misconception that Ireland has no offensive weapons useful to Ukraine. Ireland has 1,800 AT4 anti tank rockets:

A Ukrainian solider with an AT-4, one of the first seen in country as of 5 March

22-3-22:

• "The US's latest security assistance package to Ukraine includes 6,000 AT4 anti-armor weapons.
• The AT4 is an anti-tank weapon, but it's no substitute for Javelins or NLAWs that take out main battle tanks.
• The AT4 has an advantage in street fighting and could be used if the Russians continue to assault cities."
• https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sending-at4-basic-deadly-anti-tank-weapon-to-ukraine-2022-3?op=1&r=US&IR=T

So Ireland coud send almost a third as many as the US is sending. It also has a few Javelins which would be extremely useful and well received.

'But everyones already sending them so much stuff, they surely wouldn't make a difference':

https://twitter.com/ZcohenCNN/status/1507109551484678146

They need everything they can get, and despite all the glowing promises of stuff to be sent, it doesn't seem to be arriving anything like fast enough:

"Ukraine has said it is fast running out of the weapons it needs to destroy Russian aircraft and tanks and urged Germany and France to honour their pledges and send more arms.

...

Western officials said that Ukraine was “obviously expending a lot of ordnance”, and more than anticipated. They had expected to be supporting a more limited insurgency by this stage." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainian-troops-are-running-out-of-weapons-in-fight-against-russia-87d7mqzlt

Zelenskyy recently said that they were using a weeks worth of military aid in just 20 hours.

There is actually a benefit to sending them all these munitions. They don't last forever and have a shelf life, so handing them over puts them to better use than Ireland realistically ever would and allows for restocking with better and fresher stuff.

Call it military grade environmentalism - not allowing things spoil and go to waste.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834876#Comment_118834876

Here's hoping he's a trend setter.

animalinside

Well, well, well - Zelensky now giving Ireland **** for daring to remain neutral in a matter of war. This after Michael Martin was prostrating his anus in obscene fashion to him a few days ago.

Talk about entitlement and biting the hand that feeds you, he seems to want nothing but WW3. The truth character of Zelensky is all coming out now.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10651117/Zelensky-scolds-Europe-late-imposing-sanctions-Russia.html

Cody montana

Where happened Belarus?

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834983#Comment_118834983

Stretched themselves a bit thin there too I might add. I wish the troops encircled north west of Kiev a speedy departure to the Donbas and hope they have enough food for the long journey.

Are they aiming too high with even that now? I mean the Donbas front has barely moved all along or are they talking of drawing the line where it currently is and not the whole Oblast.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834924#Comment_118834924

My crystal ball of a while back seems to be working pretty well. They're fúcked and they know they're fúcked and not just militarily. How do you say "covering your arse" in Russian? This is the expected start of their Spin for a Win to the home crowd.

They still hold bargaining and spin(which we won't believe) chips. That's why I reckoned a while back that they've held back from Kyiv and other cities. Odessa won't be touched either. They're leverage positons, not tactical. They shelled Kyiv and the centre of it early on. They haven't to nearly the same degree since. Bits and bobs around the outskirts to keep those established lines intact but have left the centre alone. The power and comms are still on. They could have easily fired a lot of dumb munitions in, but they haven't.

This will be spun as being humanitarian(HA!), but with the not so veiled threat of restarting shelling if their demands aren't met at the negotiation table. Demands they well know are on an ever shorter list and can only be about the Donbas(pretty much a donedeal) Crimea(not even on the table), land corridor(up in the air, but going more the Ukrainian way with each week), NATO(off the table and for over a week), the EU(barely if ever mentioned compared to early on), de-nazification(remove a couple of statues, new unit patch for Azoz, change a few street names. Job done), neutrality(not worth the paper it's written on) and de-militarisation(you can't get the toothpaste back into the tube and both sides know it).

The Russians will go back across the newly drafted border to the East, putin will have a wee rally with smiling dopes issued with flags claiming a victory against nazis. Some sanctions will be dropped, most of the don't really matter ones like Chanel shops and Maccy Dees will be back and any of the big European owned manufacturing plants will, but the international business community will either not deal with them again, or move to reduce their dealings with them going forward, because they're just too volatile and risky to deal with .

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835020#Comment_118835020

This some sort of new Wordle game? 😐️

Dohnjoe

View on the possible Chinese strategy on this

From the Guardian:

For more on what to expect from China amid the Russia-west tensions, a US White House official has said China will engage in a “dance” between the axes of power.

Reuters reports from Washington:

Mira Rapp-Hooper, director for the Indo-Pacific at the White House National Security Council, told an online panel discussion that driving a wedge between Russia and China would be easier said than done, but that Beijing would remain uncomfortable with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war.

“We’re unlikely, I think, to see a fully and publicly unified Moscow and Beijing in which China is totally comfortable being saddled with the burden of Vladimir Putin’s brutal and ill-begotten war,” Rapp-Hooper said.

“That is to say that we are likely to continue to see some amount of Chinese support for the Russian economy, but a dance that Beijing tries to do to keep up its economic ties to the European Union in particular, but also to the United States,” she said. ...

China has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions, calling them ineffective and insisting it will maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia.

Hobgoblin11

The main targets of the first phase of the Russian attack are now complete according to their government, the next seems to be to redirect all troops to Mariupol and the rest of the Donbas, thats a fair trek for many up north

DontHitTheDitch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835019#Comment_118835019

It might be because we seem over represented by the useful idiots we somehow managed to send as MEPs?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835019#Comment_118835019

He said "Ireland, well almost". I wouldn't read hugely into it. The rest of your post comes across as pretty fanatical.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835050#Comment_118835050

Wouldn't that also free up Ukraine to send forces to the south?

Dohnjoe

I would say multiply these figures by around 10

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1507390772638801930

josip

Russia won't be happy with just a land corridor to Crimea, they'll also want to secure water to Crimea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

Which will require a much bigger slice of the south than a simple corridor. I think Ukraine is in a sufficiently strong position now to refuse a land corridor and even if they give up Crimea, they should deny it the water that would allow it to become more than a glorified military base.

Ukraine's access to the Sea of Azov also has to included in the treaty as well as freedom of passage through the Kerch Straits.

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835076#Comment_118835076

You'd think but beware of them announcing their intentions like that. Wait for the US confirmation of troop movements.

Hobgoblin11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835076#Comment_118835076

yes its a shitshow for the Russians no matter what way they try this

ronivek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835023#Comment_118835023

There have been some reports of troops moving back into Belarus from the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas; it's entirely possible they're going to be rotated to the Donbass front.

Once they have utterly wiped out Mariupol, which is realistically only a matter of days away; they can also push those troops up. It also seems like they're forcibly dispersing the population so they won't need troops to actually hold it; unlike Kherson.

There have also been reports and images of mass conscription in Russian controlled areas in the Donbass. Along with the additional fighters and equipment which have been pictured moving towards Ukraine and could be used.

I suspect if they concentrate their forces in a smaller number of areas they will be able to make much more progress than they have been in the east.

I think the interesting part will be if they just abandon Kyiv completely (which you could argue they already have done) or if they'll keep trying to tie up Ukraine's forces there; and whether Ukraine will take the risk of trying to move larger groups of forces through the country to meet the Russians in the east.

ronivek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835079#Comment_118835079

The water would be a condition of any peace deal I'm sure; it was one of the quoted reasons for the invasion and has been a bone of contention since 2014.

Ken Tucky

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835050#Comment_118835050

Maybe the little turnip head thinks he is playing a Ukrainian game of Risk where he can just move his troops around the board.

I look forward to the day that him and his s*ithole country are so insignificant that we no longer hear about them...

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835019#Comment_118835019

Let's hear it for Russia's trolling B-team. The original guys have probably been conscripted to fight at the front. Go easy, they're learning on the job.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118834936#Comment_118834936

I don't think I have said it had to be one or the other, and if I did, it was in error. My preferred option would be to send both. I phrased it as I did to better make a point. Absolutely every single thing anyone and any country does to help Ukraine is to be welcomed and admired.

The ambulances were a usefull gesture but would have been 100 times more so had they been full to the brim with AT4's or Javelins.