Russia - threadbanned users in OP

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931456#Comment_118931456

It's taking the US only 48 hours to get weapons to Ukraine. The latest $800m lot is so large the conduit can't move it any faster.

The real issue is they are not getting the weapons they most need, which would be extremely capable air defence systems that could intercept and stop these pretty much at-will nightly bombardments, like the one last night.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931853#Comment_118931853

Just ask the Australians why the ditched the NH90 and tiger for Blackhawks and apache helicopters

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931730#Comment_118931730

No it isn't; the real one sank at around 03:00 in a bit of a storm, had big missile tubes, etc, etc.

Ok, honest question, looking for honest answers, from anyone with an actual knowledge.

Should we be worried about an escalation from Russia. As in Finland and the Baltic states, is there any indication that they are looking outside of Ukraine? I am no expert in anything conflict related.

deise08

Mark Stone from Sky news..

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1514598770100486147?s=20&t=VS195R0bWjguhYfLTfzw9g

Yana is ten. She’s one of four children I have just met in a Ukrainian hospital.

A week ago she was in Kramatorsk train station trying to escape the war when it was hit by missiles.

She has lost both her legs. And her mother.

(At the request of docs we aren’t showing her face)

RedCardKid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931840#Comment_118931840

It has less to do with new tanks on order, more on replacing those which are in for service or overhauls.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931965#Comment_118931965

In terms of conventional warfare no. They would not be in a position to do any standard military action against Finland or the Baltics for months (or years).

Strazdas

Looks like the Russian public are getting wind of the fact that the Moskva crew perished and didn't survive the attack, contrary to the lies of the regime (Russian news sites hinting at this).

I'd say we haven't heard the last of this one. It will be absolutely impossible to cover up that the ship's crew weren't rescued, given the number of grieving relatives at home.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931571#Comment_118931571

Right.

It appears there are still Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Mariupol, notably in the steel plant (the complex is several square kilometers) - the conditions they are fighting can only be indescribable, but so far they have been a critical thorn in Russia's side. There are genuine fears Russia may use chemical weapons to dislodge them.

ronivek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931853#Comment_118931853

It's certainly reasonable for a nation to prioritise its own defence forces above anyone else's: I mean the ultimate responsibility of a government is to its own people after all.

I suppose my issue with that argument in this context is that the only realistic near-term defence issues Germany will have would be from Russia; who are and will never realistically be in any position to move ground forces into Germany. So Germany needs to be looking at naval, air, cyber, and anti-missile forces; not more tanks/IFVs/artillery.

Coupled with that fact is that Germany is indeed a member of NATO; and thus any defensive action Germany gets involved with will be undertaken in concert with NATO: so it's highly questionable again how important a relatively small number of tanks/IFVs/artillery would be to that mission.

And aside from all of that; unless things have changed significantly Germany is not interested in Leopard 1 and Marders anyway. I suppose they could argue that if Rheinmetall is spending time on refurbishing older equipment for Ukraine it can't be refurbishing/building more modern equipment for the Bundeswehr but again I revert back to be previous two points.

Personally I think Scholz is more worried about the German economy than Ukraine or anything else: he simply will not take actions which in his mind risk Germany's gas/oil/coal supplies especially in the short term. Everything else is an attempt at deflecting away from admitting that stark calculus.

deise08

I thought there were some survivors?

So this is the Kursk all over again but above water.

(we're not saving them, but we're not letting you save them either?)

I wonder will the families be as accepting this time?

All for Mother Russia.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932016#Comment_118932016

On a technical level Ukraine was a neutral "non-bloc" country until 2014 when Russia annexed it's territory and sparked a war in the East. Russia has been conducting hybrid warfare against the country for 8 years, escalated to full war this year.

Dohnjoe

https://twitter.com/uawarinfo/status/1514922935798177795

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932050#Comment_118932050

I’m just on the bus home, so for the time being, let me just address the last point you made: Scholz doesn’t give an airborne insect’s flatulence about the German economy at the moment. He only cares about his own ego and his pride.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932050#Comment_118932050

I'm not really getting the connection between more German weapons going to Ukraine and the oil and gas from Russia I think you made there if I understood it (right at the end)? I don't think Russia is going to cut these off in anger because Germany sends more weapons, esp. not some obsolete tanks and fighting vehicles. It wants and needs that money (which seems to get forgotten sometimes) just as Germany needs the energy.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932060#Comment_118932060

So it was a neutral country until 2014, i never knew that.

ronivek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932093#Comment_118932093

Because one of the tools Russia has used in the past and has threatened to use is unilaterally disrupting oil/gas/coal supplies. Whether or not they would actually go through with it at this point is debatable: but Scholz and the German government strike me as exceedingly risk averse when it comes to their precious oil and gas.

Likewise the markets and industries involved have been sounding alarm at even the mention of oil and gas embargoes; and markets could fall simply on the threat of unilateral action by Russia.

If that isn't the reason (or at least a large part of the reason) then honestly I'm at a loss as to why Germany continues to block deals being done with Ukraine for old decommissioned equipment.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118929475#Comment_118929475

Probably the best WW2 historian online.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931126#Comment_118931126

The problem for Putin is that although Mariupol may fall (how long has it been falling for now?), The Azovs won't be defeated and as momentum shifts in the south and east, Russia will get pushed back. So although they might declare "job done", the Ukrainians aren't going to let up. As we've seen in the north, the Russians can retreat much faster than they can advance. Reminds me of the joke about the Italian tank.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118929659#Comment_118929659

Da state of ya Russian army, I'm Scarla for yer Babushka.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931994#Comment_118931994

Well to date, UN figures say that some 15'000 Russian soldiers have been killed, and that's a phenomenal Nr considering the duration of the war. And given that there are roughly 3 wounded for every KIA, these kind of figures should trigger a tidal wave of protest's. But it seems that for now at any rate Vlada's draconian punishment regime for any one protesting, is keeping the people at bay. For how long I wonder???

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932194#Comment_118932194

I remember reading something to the effect that one of the factors in the number of deaths is the absence of Russian medivac \ medical treatment support. There could be a large number in the numbers killed that could have been saved with better backup. But hey, cannon fodder is a Russian strategy.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118931994#Comment_118931994

A lot of mobile phones went to the bottom with the ship so the people back home won't be getting calls from the crew.

brickster69

Looks like the first Russian bombers have been deployed on Azovstal tonight if true

https://twitter.com/Taurevanime/status/1515035264183328773

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932199#Comment_118932199

That's a very valid point, and would play into Putin's propaganda machine...Soldiers who later died from their wounds, were not killed in battle. And so keep the official Nrs down. ( not that you could believe any Nrs coming from them anyway.

Danzy

https://twitter.com/Thomas_Reichart/status/1514929698094129152

"100 Leopard 1, 60 M113 tank mortars and more German weapons have been ready for delivery to Ukraine since March but the German government is not giving the final approval."

Reichart is a journalist on one of Germany's leading news shows.

Slowly but surely those who believe democracy in Europe is always to be defended gathers pace in Germany, the pressure on Scholz must be made unbearable.

Berlin must be forced to understand that there is no cost benefit analysis with regard to Democracy in Europe. That policy change must be actioned, not just talked about repeatedly.

When he cracks, that fissure will knock a key pillar supporting Putin.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932052#Comment_118932052

Reports that Turkish/Romanian ships rescued 50-100 depending. I thought that Russian sources said that most of the crew were taken off before sinking?

ronivek

Seems Germany is committing a further €2 billion to defence spending; "a large part of which" will go to Ukraine:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/olaf-scholz-bewilligt-laut-reuters-zwei-milliarden-euro-militaerhilfe-grossteil-fuer-die-ukraine-a-d31936f7-da3e-4505-abfd-16f1ce21e8ac

Around 400 million euros alone are earmarked for the European Peace Facility, which buys weapons for Ukraine. In addition, there would be expenditure for the German armed forces and for deliveries to Ukraine and third countries. Ukraine can therefore count on more than one billion euros in support.

There are some suggestions on Twitter that he will also approve purchases from German industry if Ukraine makes them: but I don't see any mention of that in the official reports.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932135#Comment_118932135

I don't know enough to know if the explanations/reasons I've read in the media for not doing it hold water (about those old vehicles specifically).

You may be right about "risk averse" though. Could straight up fear of Russia (that it might find some grey area or military way to attack/punish Germany in particular?) be a reason? As I said the Russian "energy weapon" is a thing they can only use once, and at great harm to themselves also. Can't see them doing it over those 100 or so vehicles.

I think it was a factor for some other European countries (or am I wrong there?). They wanted to coordinate things with the US and through NATO + with allies etc., not have situation develop where they were sticking out as a country giving some special assistance to Ukraine, which might attract Russia's particular attention for making an example.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118932254#Comment_118932254

Will it happen this year, the talk is non stop.

Is it just another meaningless media stunt that starts to role back a few weeks later.

There have been quite a few of those. I wouldn't be surprised if this eventually sees the Greens or leading members walk away from Govt. over these promises and the reality.