Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Ash.J.Williams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105745#Comment_119105745

Not with those sneaky poisoning Russians waiting in the wings

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105762#Comment_119105762

Putin looks healthy enough to me - but maybe he is propped up with drugs for public appearances?

Ash.J.Williams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105824#Comment_119105824

I’m talking about assassination/power struggle/coup

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105836#Comment_119105836

Putin has spent over 20 years carefully cultivating an almost complete control of Russian politics and it is my assumption that a lot of people are afraid of him in Russia. He does need to be taken down, but it'll take a brave and equally cunning man to step forward and plunge the knife in. That event, if it happens, cannot happen soon enough.

Call me Al

Brave, cunning and needs to be practically guaranteed of success, which leads me to believe it will only happen with the cooperation of the military.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105988#Comment_119105988

And as we've seen in other autocrats, if the first time misses, then the crackdown comes and there's no chance for anyone else to make a second attempt.

Grayson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106005#Comment_119106005

Have you seen the Russian military?

zv2

Suicide drone apparently - https://twitter.com/vik8867dn/status/1529032958593716224?s=20&t=QlQfnK56Pc_-OPabKVQepw

Dohnjoe

Russians still making progress in the East

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1529039095997280257

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105642#Comment_119105642

Odessa will be on the cards soon enough then

Vicxas

If the Russians take Odessa, that essentially landlocks Ukraine shipping wise, would that be right?

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106335#Comment_119106335

I suppose it would, but as I said before, maybe it's possible to get at least some of that grain out of Ukraine overland, i.e. west to Romania, down to Bulgaria and on down into Greece and the med.

Anyway, in a sense Ukraine is already landlocked because of the amount of hazards Russia has placed in the Black Sea. I don't expect there's much coming in or out of the port of Odessa right now.

Russia would have a fair way to go before they can take Odessa. They already tried to get to it through Mykolaiv and were rudely rebuffed. The way it looks at the moment, Russia is focusing on the Donbass. If and when they can say they have conquered that region, their efforts should shift south for a push west along the coast.

Curious_Case

Putin has chosen to weaponise the transit of Global food supplies through the Black Sea.

It may prove very convenient for the World's nations to make very good use of that same weaponisation.

" It's not a hostile military response, Boss - it's an attempt to prevent mass starvation "

shivaz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106321#Comment_119106321

There is not a lot happening in that direction and nothing big will happen until the Donbas battle ends.To get to Odessa the Russians must cross the river Botna at Mykolaiv which is a huge,This was tried at the beginning of the war and failed.Odessa will be safe from a land assault for a while and a sea invasion will be met with Harpoon anti-ship weapons unless they attack very soon which is unlikely.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106335#Comment_119106335

By all accounts, Odessa is much better defended than Mariupol - Mariupol was caught napping slightly when the Russians advanced but Odessa has had months to prepare for a Russian invasion.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106446#Comment_119106446

It'd be nearly as big a move as a no fly zone to protect convoys going to Odessa , and protect the loading facilities in the port at Odessa ,

It'd mean threading through snake island and Sevastopol's air-space/ missile space/ sea space -

It's doable ( if the turks are onboard ) , and finding the cargo ships could be tricky ..

But it'd depend on Moscow , and how escalatory they are - I mean they could ignore the whole thing pretend nothing is happening .. or they could keep firing missiles at Odessa ,

If they lock radar on a NATO ship, or aggressively check it out from air or sea then that's gonna be a response ..

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106234#Comment_119106234

When you say that Russia has lost a third of its troops, I assume you mean both killed and injured, as 60,000 dead Russian soldiers would exceed even the most pro-Ukrainian estimates there are.

The problem, anyway, is that although Russia is undoubtedly losing lots of soldiers every day in its attempt to grind through the Donbas, are Ukraine taking similarly heavy casualties? We know they're taking at least some casualties, although exact numbers are being held close the chest. It has to be that Ukrainian forces are getting worn down to a similar proportion as Russia's, otherwise Russia would little to no ability to grind out gains in the Donbass. Ukraine needs as many modern western weapon systems as it can get in order to dispatch Russian armour and grunts at a nice safe distance.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106546#Comment_119106546

Not really we've known and the Ukrainans knew exactly what was going to happen there , considering they(Russia )lost a thousands of men and equipment the last time they tried to take it 8 years ago , Russia was always going to destroy Mariupol because of the AZOZ battalions.it wasn't about taking and holding Mariupol it was about the punishment and wiping out of the azoz

Manic Moran

The precedent is Operation Earnest Will, the escorting by the US Navy of Kuwaiti tankers temporarily flying American colors during the Tanker War. Unfortunately, the end result was a clash between the US and Iranian navies after USS Samuel B Roberts was mined: Operation Preying Mantis.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106637#Comment_119106637

Didn't they put gunships and special forces on converted merchant vessels (US) at the time

Say my name

On subject of Ukrainian grain. Russian forces now control 30% of the farmland in Ukraine. But in the area of the south and east that's 100% tillage farmland compared to more livestock and grassland grazing in the west and north. So the cropland controlled by Russia in Ukraine is a good figure. In the next month harvest will start of the winter crops. Anywhere the Russians have been, they've destroyed grain stores, including ground taken back by the Ukrainians. So those crops will need to be moved instantly at harvest or else they'll be spoiled. In the Russian controlled areas it'll be trucked, railed back to Russia. In the Ukrainian controlled areas if no stores available it'll spoil. There's a big crunch time coming up in the next short while.

The World's farmers know there's a famine coming and the civil servants still can't think it possible that the food won't be available in Tesco.

I stuck that in because there's a serious lack of urgency on the matter and Putin is clapping with glee like a madman.

http://observers.france24.com/en/europe/20220506-russian-attacks-on-farms-and-silos-deliberately-trying-to-destroy-the-ukrainian-economy

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106775#Comment_119106775

I stuck the tesco quote in because it's the people that shop here and in like stores that hold the power and sway on world decisions.

The only way this will end will be boots from the EU and US, Britain on the ground in Ukraine. Harpoons from Denmark to Ukraine won't cut it. Not to mention the minefields now in the Black Sea.

The world is trundling along hands in pockets to famine.

shivaz

What would you do for your good friend,the father of your goddaughter?...Nothing if you are Vladimir Putin.

Kremlin rules out any prisoner exchange for Viktor Medvedchuk.https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-23/Kremlin-says-not-possible-to-exchange-Medvedchuk-for-Azovstal-fighters-1agRGlPfRNS/index.html

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119106916#Comment_119106916

If one takes that attitude then one is the same as the Russians.

Those countries are not going to be able to do a dam thing bar complain to the UN. Which is a gelded three legged donkey at this stage.

The harvest starts in the next month if as a human race we just observe this then I'm not sure we're even human.

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119107136#Comment_119107136

There's probably not enough trucks on the continent to move this much grain (every truck diverted to move grain means it isn't doing what it was bought for originally). It has to be moved out of Ukraine for fear of it being blown to bits in silos waiting to be transported.

India have banned export of grain to ensure their own population aren't going to go hungry. At least that's the plan now anyway.

In the developed world prices of food will go up. Some things won't be available to buy. The poorer regions are in big trouble. Remember there was a poor harvest in a lot of the world last year. Canada still has drought conditions where seeding is ongoing now. The US have their lowest amount sown at this date for many many years. No rain in France. Russia banned from selling. Ukraine being blown to bits. There is a grain issue on it's way.

Hobgoblin11

https://t.me/suspilnemykolaiv/10232

Fire at petrol station in Ingulsky district of Mykolaiv englufed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119105425#Comment_119105425

Insurance is controlled by Kremlin like anything else in Russia

Gatling

The idea of shipping grain by truck across Europe is a no go ,you would need over one million trucks to ship the grain across Europe

paul71

Trucks will not and cannot replace ships. I highlighted this a week ago. A ladden truck is max 44 tonnes (that includes the weight of the truck), so a truck can carry about 25-30 tonnes, a ship carries between 20,000 and 60,000 tonnes.

Suggesting that the 80 million tonnes of grain and sunflower seed be moved by truck is about as useful as suggesting that it can be walked across Europe a teaspoon at a time.

paul71

Even that will not suffice, Odessa is 1 port. It alone never had to deal with the 80,000,000 tonnes of annual export. That logistic task was divided between all the Ukrainian ports and the others are now in Russian hands. The fact is is not possible to get all the coming harvest out of Ukraine without using the Russian occupied ports (including the Crimea).

Ukraine provides about 10% the worlds food, and I fear a lot of that it is already lost. It is not helped by that fact that we are already seeing the effects of global warming on crop yields in other parts of the world (Indias heatwave and the French crop yield is currently losing 1,000,000 tonnes a week due to drought).

https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20220519-france-s-crop-yields-will-be-very-poor-due-to-unprecedented-drought