Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190121#Comment_119190121

It pretty much is Duff. In WW2 the German forces were vastly superior on nearly every metric to the Russian forces, save for winter prep and numbers. Years ago I read a history of that conflict and the author mentioned a "kill ratio" type number about it. It was something like for every German killed, eight or ten, or more? I can't recall, Russian soldiers were killed. But in the end fighting against the sheer numbers the Germans were on a hiding to nothing(fighting on a few fronts didn't help. Obvs).

Now a small force can bugger a "superpower". The 20th century is full of examples. Vietnam for the French and the Americans. Afghanistan for the Russians, the Americans and the British(and everyone else save for Alexander the Great). Hell, Ireland and the British Empire. It's very doable, but it usually relies on a constant hit and run insurgency tactic where you can melt into the background afterwards, and the support, tacit or active, of the vast majority of the population. In old style open conventional warfare? That's a whole other matter.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190189#Comment_119190189

On the other hand this is a war of choice for Russia versus an existential war for Ukraine... that is a big factor is endurance.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119189851#Comment_119189851

I think ukraine will make em fight for every last village of it,zelensky is a fairly hardened killer/commander by now......

i cant see em leaving it to russia either,even our own country 100 years after partition,has a reasonable cohort who still seek/aspire for reunification......they will politically,and likely militarily (with assistance of america),keep an insurgency going forever there,ala russia has been since 2014 and dangle eu membership in front of these regions in the future as a carrot for reunification/peace

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190218#Comment_119190218

That is a huge unknown factor and also was fundamentally what drove russia on againest the nazis (and made the war sellable,by highlighting the avoz battalion and going for them/labeling it as rampant issue there)

It is a war for survival,and they have alot to loose,the fact near zero defections been reported to russia from ukraine,shows an admirable level of patriotism.....i dont wanna sound down on ukraine,i hope they win like

,i just feel it could go all wrong quickly over next few weeks and by end of summer it could be bleak enough situation given levels of attrition and effect on morale that will cause.....if they hold out until the winter,they could drag it out for years alright.....but outside help is desperatedly needed,to have any hope of turning the tide

Danzy

https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/world/biden-zelensky-did-not-want-to-hear-us-information-on-russia-invasion-plans-1318354.html

Is there a bit of a blame game starting, a positioning of pieces.

Scholz, Macron and Draghi going to Kyiv. The 3 amigos most likely of any from Europe to tell Zelensky to accept facts on the ground and pull back from Donbass.

Biden using the words "negotiated settlement" and "land transfer m"last week, Zelensky upping the repetition of how Ukraine has lost too many people to just hand over land to Russia.

Like I said above, Scholz, Macron and Draghi aren't just going for a social call. They have been regularly in contact with Putin.

If Russia gets a negotiated settlement, it will be a significant victory for them, sanctions or no sanctions.

JoChervil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119189799#Comment_119189799

Also it was a map showed earlier in this thread, that Russian soldiers killed are from the other parts of Russia, not form Moskva area. So they may simply get fed up with it and Russia can fall apart.

dvega

Jesus Christ, people need to take a step back. We didn't hear of any Ukrainian casualties at the beginning of this war and now in the last few weeks, that we do, they can't sustain. We are now seeing the downside of the information war, so take a step back, take a deep breath and look up what a war of attrition actually means. When people see from the Guardian "Tide maybe turning" or from the BBC "Low morale among Ukrainians" we get hundred posts saying I have a bad feeling.

If social media was around in 1943 the people of Ireland would be practicing the Nazi salute reading some of the bizarre posts here.

An ex-General on sky news said last week that could be next year before Ukraine could launch any kind of major offensive. Let that sink in and then you may get a inkling of what a war of attrition actually means.

Severodonetsk is not of importance but it is important to putin because it is 3-5% of remaining unconquered territory in the Luhansk region so he can sell that to the Russian people. This in itself of why it's a political strategy for putin and not a military strategy. And this is simply why many western media call it a strategic city. A loss would be devastating to the Russian morale and strategic position.

Ukrainian forces could just fall back to a safe, offensive position from which they could keep the pressure on.

JoChervil

From these maps situation doesn't look bad for Ukraine at all

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1535671903381504000

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190486#Comment_119190486

Will they be backed in that.

I hope they do. Some of the noises out of political capitals is certainly worth noting.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190502#Comment_119190502

Which political capitals? The US, UK, Poland & Estonia and many other eastern capitals seem to be saying they will back Ukraine as long as is needed.

Germany? but Germany have given Ukraine no heavy weapons, so if Germany back out.... well Ukraine loose nothing.

dvega

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190502#Comment_119190502

The Americans and Uk spent 20 years in Afghanistan, they are not going to flick a switch after a few months in Ukraine.

Edit: Especially when Ukraine is not losing

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190527#Comment_119190527

Reading this thread lately people think Ukraine is ready to capitulate and cede any territory that Russia has gained. Have a ceasefire for a few years, the west forgets about Ukraine while Russia regroups and in a few years takes more with another invasion etc...

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190559#Comment_119190559

Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than they did at the end of March, 2.5 months ago. So it's not like their grand offensive has had a lot of success since, even if it looks like they'll be able to win in the east eventually.

shivaz

https://soundcloud.com/languagelearner224/ukrainian-military-update-61122?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

A very good round up of events for yesterday for anyone who wants more detail into the war.

Ozymandius2011

I think there is a minority in Russia that have a European outlook in terms of supporting western-style democracy and human rights. Unfortunately it seems to be a minority. What I'm unsure of is whether this is an interlude (like Hitler's Germany in between Weimar democracy and postwar West German democracy) or something inbuilt and longterm. Denazification in Germany was imposed by the Allies, though in the East it replaced one form of totalitarianism with another.

I see a lot of parallels between the European situation in the late 1930s and now. Appeasement in 2014 with the Minsk agreement which froze Russia's conquests in place in Crimea and the DPR/LPR. Apparently Macron, Schulz and Draghi are to visit Kyiv soon. As these 3 are seen as the softest supporters of Ukraine in the EU (I question if Orban is even a supporter given he has blocked the toughest sanctions), I have a foreboding they might pressure Ukraine into another unfavourable peace. The news yesterday that German has vetoed Spain re-exporting Leopard tanks to Ukraine does nothing to assuage my fears.

Sure - elections in Russia are somewhat rigged. But Putin did win a free and fair first election in 2000 during his aggression against the people of Chechnya after very suspicious explosions in Moscow, and the press at the time like NTV suggested an inside job. Putin soon got Gazprom to take over NTV - even sending troops to do so. A book by the late Alexader Litvinenko claimed it was an inside job. The book entitled "The FSB blows up Russia" was seized at entry points in Russia. Was there something in it? During the Trump administration there was litigation to try to force the U.S. to reveal what it knows about it but the government won the case against doing so. There were allegations a Russian defector told the Americans it was an inside job.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190486#Comment_119190486

True There was precious little positive news to report from the Allied point of view until 1943. Churchill described the victory at EL Alamein in late 1942 as “the end of the beginning “. Where is the end of the beginning in this war? Have we passed it yet.

shivaz

R=RUSSIAN W=WOMAN

(W): Hello my dear. How are you?

(R): You know what I ate today? You’ve never eaten this before.

(W): What?

(R): An animal.

(W): A badger?

(R): No.

(W): Mouse?

(R): No.

(W): Rat?

(R): A dog.

(W): Oh my god… Are you not being fed at all?

(R): Well, we wanted some meat.

(W): And?

(R): Nothing, I think it was alright. Although the meat is hard.

(W): Oh… This makes me sick…

 Call 2.

(R): So, how’s it going?

 (W): It’s alright, fine! “…” What do you have to eat?

 (R): Eh… To eat… They brought some tin cans… Some salad with carrot, cabbage, we binned it straight away. It’s total crap. It’s like it’s for pigs.

 (W): Yeah?

 (R): Some strange soup…

 (W): How many dry rations do you have?

 (R): At the moment, none. Must have been nicked.

 (W): They must be taking them out and selling somewhere?

 (R): For sure…

😂Russia not looking after their soldiers.

https://wartranslated.com/intercepted-call-russian-soldiers-forced-to-eat-dogs-due-to-poor-provisions-supplies/

is_that_so

Opinion piece on sanctions, China and other things.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/11/sanctions-are-hitting-hard-enough-to-hurt-russia-if-not-stop-it

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190523#Comment_119190523

I honestly think Germany ( well sholtz anyway ) is also playing for time , they've got to get their Gas storage full of gas before winter , they've got 2 floating lpg regassification platforms that will be in place before winter , and are hoping for a mild winter ....

But I doubt that scholtz will do much after this either ...

shivaz

https://twitter.com/TolomeoNews/status/1535876386216415233?s=20&t=ZvWsn_YghXwAuxTZEZsrQQ

On the coast 50k west of Mariupol,3 explosions in occupied territory

"Ukraine - Reports of a major sabotage attack in the occupied port city of Berdyansk this morning. Several large explosions and black smoke rising after energy and fuel infrastructure targeted"

Freight bandit

"The first casualty of war is always the truth"

If ever a saying suited a war its this one, propaganda on both sides is off the charts...

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190486#Comment_119190486

Nobody is saying Ukraine is doomed. We're just saying that posting endless clips of Russian tanks being hit and celebrating a few eighteen year olds being blown to bits and taking this as proof that Ukraine is winning while ignoring all bad news is not particularly helpful for those who want a realistic assessment of how this is likely to end. Both sides face huge problems and so far both the most pessimistic and optimistic predictions have proved wide of the mark, it's not that outrageous for people to look for information that's a bit more objective

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190486#Comment_119190486

The nazis in ww2 were continuely expanding and taking territory,whereas if ukraine falls back to a safer position and the russians dig in over the winter and bolster defences.....it will take horrendous loss of life to dislodge them again

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190856#Comment_119190856

Given how poorly the Russians have performed to date and bearing in mind the cumulative effects of sanctions this seems extremely optimistic for them, almost fanciful. The Germans, back in the day, understood logistics, Russia does not.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190864#Comment_119190864

The sanctions havnt curtailed them on battlefield,it could be argued,those on front line are somewhat insulated from its effects back home?

If they have a winter to dig in,landmine and boobytrap everything,and will then be in the position of having to defend this contested ground,it is hard to see how they can be dislodged without horrendous loss of life??

shivaz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190856#Comment_119190856

Your pessimistic assumptions on how this war will go are not based on the latest evidence.This is not ww2 .You talk about Russian gains and Ukraine losses but you fail to mention or understand that these gains do not come free.You are trying to seed into people minds that surrender is best for Ukraine and defeat in inevitable.Your thinking is cowardly or pro-russian in my view

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190876#Comment_119190876

For now it's less evident but they are running out of munitions and equipment they will not be able to replace and against an enemy that has a potentially endless ability to resupply with superior weaponry. In addition, you can expect insurgency to rise significantly. It also becomes a tougher sell at home where sanctions are beginning to bite very hard. Donbass, IMO, is the about the limit of what they can claim to have captured but attempting to hold that will be hell on Earth.

shivaz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190876#Comment_119190876

Everyone except you knows that sactions take time to work but you are impatient.Sactions are working slowly and will have a huge affect.You are talking about winter and we are not at mid summer yet.Is panic and worry real with you? are are you purposely trying to spread that exaggerated misinformation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190765#Comment_119190765

Great article. Although, disappointed that the drop in Russian GDP is so small. I suppose it further highlights how carbon based the Russian economy is... but, with the planned weening off of Russian oil/gas, why is Russia only forecast to drop a further 4% next year... I would have hoped for far greater.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119190919#Comment_119190919

Sanctions lessen in effect over time as workarounds take place