Russia - threadbanned users in OP

thomil

The UA head of intelligence said the main battles will be over by mid August. Germany and France need to send all the big guns they have straight away.

That has "it'll be over by Christmas" written all over it and we all know how well this aged in the past. Thinking that anything will be decided by August is going to be foolhardy in the extreme. Russia may have expended its offensive potential by then but Ukraine will still have to take back the occupied territory, which will be a long, hard slog, with no indication that the Russian forces are simply going to collapse once they're on the defensive. This isn't **** Command & Conquer or Call of Duty!

As far as Germany sending all big guns they have, get real! No major NATO country is going to significantly weaken their inventories whilst there is still the option of Russia opening another front and possibly engaging NATO directly. Kaliningrad in particular seems ripe for such a move. There's a reason why a German-led battlegroup is being stood up in the Baltic states. I suggest you read up on basic strategy, not expending all available reserves at once and basic logistics!

EOQRTL

Just two more weeks.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398422#Comment_119398422

If the effective strangulation of russian logistics can continue without russia being able to address it, Ukraine may well be correct here. Troops running out of food, fuel, ammunition aren't going to be in the best of shape.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398440#Comment_119398440

In fairness it’s a long time since Russia retreated from around Kiev and descended into micro advances on the eastern front . So those two weeks predictions were not that wide of the mark.

thomil

That might be true. However, by the time Ukraine is able to launch a significant offensive in multiple locations, Russia will have been able to fortify their defensive lines, making the job much, much harder for the liberating Ukrainian forces. Don't get me wrong, I do believe that Ukraine can, and ultimately will, win this war. And I expect at least Kherson to be liberated before the summer is out. However, to use a rather crude WW2 analogy, that won't be the 2022 equivalent for D-Day in this war. It'll be akin to taking Guadalcanal: A good first step, but there'll still be a long way to go.

By the way, I hope I'm wrong and we actually DO see a collapse of Russian forces all along the front, but they've turned out to be bloody resilient so far in this war, even with their piss-poor logistics.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398178#Comment_119398178

I had long feared what would happen if Russia planned some kind of D-day type of landing on the Odessa coastline

Based on recent history, they'll mostly end up on the bottom on the sea so happy days.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119395006#Comment_119395006

Absolutely disgraceful, essentially promoting appeasement of a violent regime that has invaded it's sovereign neighbour.

She and her hubby would do well to dwell on the message in 'For What Died the Sons of Roisin?'

"Was it greed that drove Wolfe Tone to a pauper's death in a cell of cold wet stone?

Will German, French or Dutch inscribe the epitaph of Emmett?

When we have sold enough of Ireland to be but strangers in it

For what died the sons of Róisín, was it greed?

To whom do we owe our allegiance today?

To whom do we owe our allegiance today?

To those brave men who fought and died that Róisín live again with pride?

Her sons at home to work and sing

Her youth to dance and make her valleys ring

Or the faceless men who for Mark and Dollar

Betray her to the highest bidder

To whom do we owe our allegiance today?"

Champagne Socialists First Class are our so called First Citizens. Hmpppph.

Curious_Case

There's a definite change in mood since the HIMARS got busy

Some say the Russians have only one last "lurch" left in them

https://youtu.be/XyKdgDAhaQk

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398754#Comment_119398754

Being an "anti-war campaigner" is fine in theory if you view wars as being of the 1914-18 variety - big empires squaring up to each other and throwing shapes rather using diplomacy.

But Ukraine is an example of a brutal oppressor and criminal regime invading a much smaller country without warning or provocation. Saying that you are anti-war and pro-peace in that circumstance is completely meaningless.

mondeo

Why is the UK taking so long to send their tracked version of the Himars ? Why isn't the US sending 50 Himars instead tiny numbers like 4...

Darth Putin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119399067#Comment_119399067

Uk has sent about dozen m270s, US has already sent about 20 HIMARS, with more on way

the problem is ammunition as these can go thru pods fast

theres bipartisan thingie developing at moment in congress to send 300km rockets for HIMARS https://en.defence-ua.com/events/the_us_congress_declares_the_need_to_transfer_atacms_to_ukraine_democrats_and_republicans_support_the_decision-3699.html

US has something like 1000 m270s in storage (replaced by HIMARS 20 years back) but once again the ammo is the problem

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119397261#Comment_119397261

In the 17th and 18th centuries in Ireland the ruling aristocratic landlords turned a blind eye if not encouraged young Catholic men of their tenants to emigrate and fight with the European powers.

Reason was if they died it was less young men to agitate for a revolution in Ireland. They were out of the way.

Putin doesn't mind young men from the provinces getting out of the way and getting similar results. Or seems so.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119399067#Comment_119399067

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1551668596803358724?s=20&t=eRU3fFiPe223-DzQu0FpMg

...

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119399067#Comment_119399067

Each rocket costs 100k. There a four rockets in each pod. Let's say you launch 5 times a day. Cost for one HIMARS for a single day is 2 million. If you give Ukraine 50 launchers that's a cost of 100m to run these things for just one day. 1 billion cost for 10 days. 10 billion cost for 100 days.

The cost is astronomical.

Hobgoblin11

The commander of the Russian fleet declares control of the Sea of Azov and the northern part of the Black Sea

https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1552591882554949635

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398422#Comment_119398422

I think what he meant is that the turning point of the war will come in mid August. Let's see. As for Russia attacking nato countries, not a chance at this stage. Their military has taken a battering and nato's air force is sufficient to destroy Russia's air force. After that it would be target practice on the ground troops.

zv2

In #Mariupol (#Donetsk Oblast) on July 25 the "Satellit" factory, set on fire by the Ukrainian partisans more than 10 days ago, continued to burn.

https://twitter.com/fabry_il_bomber/status/1552671743294246912?s=20&t=Rpqv3cH5fDVI-f2ZhXkyFQ

zv2

An interesting read on Russia's military situation.

Logistics Collapse. I can only make an assumption, in the… | by Nadin Brzezinski | Jul, 2022 | Medium

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400311#Comment_119400311

If it gets close to this situation the US may have to intervene to save Russia. If Crimea is threatened Russia will likely nuke Kyiv and maybe one or two other Ukrainian cities.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400311#Comment_119400311

Interesting stuff. A lot of speculation obviously but it does suggest a large amount of problems on the Russian side. I guess we would / will get a better perspective if the Ukrainians were to launch a counter offensive and then see how the Russians are able to respond.

Curious_Case

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400359#Comment_119400359

I'm sure Putin has been "educated" re: the above.

Something along the lines of "with the greatest respect Mr. Putin, we've played real, real gentle with you so far. If anywhere gets hit by something nasty, Ukraine will still prevail, guess how?"

nigeldaniel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400311#Comment_119400311

Very interesting indeed. The next 2 weeks will tell us a lot.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400438#Comment_119400438

Couldn’t see Russia giving up Crimea without firing a couple of nukes. Suicidal but may be more tolerable to complete humiliation. I would expect the back channels to come into play first and the US would stop any Ukraine advance into Crimea. Also Ukraine will not be allowed to take all the lost territory in Donbas back. I think there will be negotiations and agreements that will surprise a lot of people.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400467#Comment_119400467

Sounds like Putin's wet dream, but the reality may be completely different. The problem with negotiating with Russia is that it's pointless - no-one believes they'll honour any agreements.

Hobgoblin11

https://twitter.com/alex_bezfam/status/1552615804188954624

Explosions at Sieverny district in Donetsk

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400518#Comment_119400518

Putin would jump at a way out with a deal that he could portray as a win. The Russian military have been effectively wiped out for decades so the US has a major win already.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400467#Comment_119400467

You working for Filatov? That's been a standard Russian threat bandied about since this started - mess us about and we'll launch nukes.

They would have to be completely deranged to launch/ drop any sort of nuclear weapon, as that would be a huge step and invite massive escalation. And if this war special military operation has shown one thing, it is that Russia is not as well equipped militarily as thought.

Ukraine have been remarkably restrained so far in not openly attacking military & civilian targets inside Russian territory. But there seems to be a steely determination to retake all land illegally occupied since February. Suspect re Crimea, they could just cut off and isolate.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119399653#Comment_119399653

They mostly seem to deploy these at night and since they have so few, probably using one salvo and then immediately pack up and move away to a new safe hide. Suspect that's how they manage them, with the targets carefully selected with help from western intelligence. And a number of hiding places, decided on the night by local commander to minimise leaks from traitors.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119400735#Comment_119400735

It’s their military weakness that makes them dangerous. If they were routed in Ukraine they could do something crazy. Unless you are suggesting they are not capable of nuking Kyiv. Maybe that is true, who knows what state their nuclear force is in.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119399354#Comment_119399354

And that was when the ruling classes did not need young Irish men to fight for them in their own wars... Putin is slightly different, while he need's all the cannon fodder he can get, he has avoided full on mobilization. Purely because that would mean taking muscovite's into the military, and while he does not care about the provinces because he can control them , Moscow is a different kettle of fish.....Body bags arriving home to Moscow in any nrs, would unleash a backlash he would not survive.