Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Curious_Case

It's beginning to smell more and more like a consensus decision has been made to prevent Russia from succeeding.

I think the message to Putin is: "We'll keep ramping up by just enough, so the longer you keep this going, the more your military gets depleted"

https://youtu.be/pOT2wC3hTEY

Darth Putin

Interesting thread on implications of the airfield strike

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1557490755954167808?s=20&t=g3Ay-yXYr7xb-sMGYnTQIQ

it was protected by two overlapping s400 battalions…

edit: stuff exploding in Belarus now!

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1557499496950546432?s=20&t=RNhi4QMSx9yki18SRAm9lA

nigeldaniel

Russian soldiers have complained to the military watchdog about being tricked into joining the frontline in Ukraine. So, some of those young lads don't even know they are in the Ukraine until they are on the front line! 10 years from now, those Russians who survive Putins madness will feel nothing but discontent for mother russia.

"This is what everyone who defends our state and helps Ukraine should think about – how to inflict the greatest possible losses on the occupiers in order to shorten the war."  Zelensky.

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-we-want-to-cause-maximum-damage-to-end-war-quickly-says-volodymyr-zelensky/ar-AA10xbX3?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c1df351df9794b7aad6fced175d7f0c8

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119456387#Comment_119456387

This is the problem both countries face in any bit of territory: you can cut off supply routes and ensure the other side can't rule it effectively. But if the territory switches hands they can do exactly the same to you. It's a nightmare scenario as long as there is no extreme imbalance in military capabilities.

And I read somewhere yesterday (BBC?) that some Ukrainian defence people said they're not in a position to try and retake Kherson right now, they don't have the troops. Which suggests both sides are having some serious difficulties reinforcing and the war may well continue to slide into an ugly, futile stalemate.

Cordell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119455931#Comment_119455931

It was a Lucky Strike.

*it is a brand of cigarettes. I'll see myself out.

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457343#Comment_119457343

You will not. You will stay here and continue to ridicule Putin and his murderous band of orcs. And infuriate all the Putin bots that join here from time to time.

tom1ie

I can’t see winter being good for the EU nor Ukraine tbh.

Not because of the Russian army- I think they’ll suffer heavy losses from the superior western backed Ukrainian army- but as soon as Germany backs out of its own sanctions regarding gas and nordstream pipelines, the whole effort against Russian aggression starts to fail.

There is no way the Germans will allow their own people to suffer this winter due to lack of gas and Putin knows this.

It’s only a matter of time before Ukraine are forced to accept some sort of **** deal by the EU, to get Russian gas flowing again.

Just my two cents.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457365#Comment_119457365

Germany has finally been getting its act together regarding both military support for Ukraine and planning to get away from energy dependence on Russia. I really don't think it's going to abandon all that come winter, especially after the way Russia has started weaponising energy. Relations between the two countries are bad, trust completely gone.

If there's anyone still pushing for shoddy compromises (ignoring Hungary), it's France, not Germany.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457365#Comment_119457365

At the beginning of this conflict, that might have been the case. But a lot has happened since, a lot of pain for both Ukraine, Europe and wider. I can't see the 'west' rowing back, as someone wrote above - more likely a slow strangulation of Russian ground forces and maximising pressure on Putin's regime. As was pointed out after the first couple of weeks, he has way overestimated Russian capabilities and on a loser since then, one way or another.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457455#Comment_119457455

So do you think German politicians will allow the gas to run out in Germany? (Assuming Putin turns off the taps?).

Honestly I can’t see it.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457501#Comment_119457501

Agreed but I don’t think winning a ground war is the way Putin gets what he wants.

He has Germany by the balls regarding its energy supply.

German politicians will not allow their own people to suffer hardship because of this as quite simply they’ll vote them out in the next election. This will be put before the people of Ukraine and that’s a horrible thing to say but more than likely the way it will play out if the gas is stopped.

Putins army getting wooped in the field of battle probably doesn’t bother him as he knows the long game is strangling Germany’s economy via the energy noose he has around their neck.

Break Germany and you break the EU.

Shitty thing to see happen if it does happen.

Podge_irl

Nordstream 2 is not coming back on the table. It would be overwhelmingly unpopular in Germany

20silkcut

Pain is a two way street. If Germany is suffering from a lack of gas Russia will be suffering from a lack of German money.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457561#Comment_119457561

Agreed.

But how much pain are German people willing to take?

Besides is Russia not finding new markets for its oil and gas in Asia?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457547#Comment_119457547

You just have to think for a few seconds and you will realise there's no way back for the Russia-Germany relations (while current regime or similar is in power in Russia). So either you have not done that or argue in bad faith?

I mean how does your scenario of Germany going on bended knee to Putin + (I assume) promising to stop supporting Ukraine in exchange for an energy bail out happen without destroying the EU + wrecking relations with most of their allies?

Even if Germany did that it still leaves them open to yet more blackmail and bullying from Putin the next time he wants something. I mean he did it once over something as critical as war and peace/security of the EU, it worked well (in your scenario), why not again?

They (and rest of Europe) cannot rely on Russia as its main energy supplier any more after these events. That is the fact, and it doesn't matter how much pain it is going to cause to end dependence on them that was built up (or if Putin increases this with a full cut off of Russian gas supplies this Autumn/Winter, which seems likely to me anyway).

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457641#Comment_119457641

I don’t know but their grandparents took a hell of a lot more pain in the face of soviet economic strangulation during the Berlin blockade of 1948 when it would have been very easy for them and on the face of it would have made sense for them to throw their lot in with east Berlin. The USSR were still allies and supposedly installing a democratic east Germany at the time.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457365#Comment_119457365

Perhaps Tom, but if Germany can make it through this winter, they've got their LNG terminal coming on stream next spring. This will replace 20% of their Russian shortfall and ease things slightly.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/uniper-starts-construction-of-germanys-first-lng-terminal-in-wilhelmshaven/

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457715#Comment_119457715

I 100% agree with what you are saying.

My point is I think Germany will buckle for the sake of its own people.

In other words they and the EU will push Ukraine into accepting a deal with Russia to get the gas back flowing.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457881#Comment_119457881

Hopefully this will ease pressure on their energy system but they are still very dependent on natural gas going forward.

zv2

Attack on Belarus

https://twitter.com/LondonLovesBiz/status/1557666664107368449?s=20&t=O0Ic11-cvQI2n2ogxVCcDA

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457957#Comment_119457957

I assume that is the airbase used to hijack an Irish passenger jet 2 years ago.

Hobgoblin11

https://t.me/lumsrc/2380

Russian artillery shelled Lohy of Chernihiv region, Vorozhba, Mezenivka, Hrabovske and Slavhorod of Sumy region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

Russia continues to terrorize parts of Ukraine it no longer controls, there is no end in sight

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457925#Comment_119457925

IMO for the "sake of its own people (as well as the rest of us!)" it's actually imperative that this not happen, and I expect people will realise that, despite the pain. I just can't see it anyway, even if Putin cuts the gas supply fully.

For Germany you'd need some massive political upheval like AfD (or maybe some far left Putin-friends? - not versed enough on German politics) taking power. For the EU, it is impossible now as despite what people sometimes claim, Germany (or FrancoGermany) does not run the EU.

There are a large number of member states (at a guess all the accession states, bar Hungary & perhaps Bulgaria + the northern ones under most threat from Russia) who won't ever agree to unwinding the existing sanctions on Russia. They will suffer pain too, but want more sanctions, not less (e.g. see the push by Baltic states and Finland to try and lock Russian tourists/temporary visa holders out of Schengen) and want loop-holes removed and cracked down on. They want nothing to do with Russia in future and hope to see them crushed in Ukraine + forced to retreat.

Gatling

Wonder if they forgot to replace the inflatable S400s in Crimea for real ones

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457925#Comment_119457925

I honestly can't see Germany buckling. Not because of any sudden growth of backbone in Olaf Scholz or his fellow SPD ministers but because walking back on the sanctions would cause a collapse of the coalitions. The Greens and in all likelihood the FDP would walk out of government if Scholz tried to push for that, and the social democrats would get absolutely annihilated at the next election! Scholz's limp-wristed policy on Russia, his foot-dragging on sanctions and heavy equipment, as well as numerous domestic issues that he has not really shown any leadership on have left him and his party at a low point that I've never seen before.

Also, the German population in general actually supports the sanctions, supports tougher sanctions than what is currently in place and is, according to recent opinion polls, willing to accept some hardships because of that. The opinion polls and reports I've seen from back in Germany indicate that people are more concerned about the "pain" being distributed equally and that supports are available for those that need them, rather than with the sanctions as such. What's more, parties that promise a hard line on Russia, primarily the Greens and the CDU under its new leader Friedrich Merz, are currently leading in the polls, whilst "Die Linke" and the AfD, parties that have traditionally been anti-western and friendly towards Moscow, are struggling, together with the SPD. Never thought I'd see those three parties in the same grouping, by the way...

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457925#Comment_119457925

The odds are that Fritz and his granny wont be freezing in unheated apartments, the effect will be on German industry this winter. All their own fault but expect Brussels to be very responsive to the needs of the presumably reformed Marxist running Germany as per usual. Germanys stupidity will be considered Europes problem.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457931#Comment_119457931

The bottom line going forward is that energy dependency in any shape or form on Russia has to end, painful as that may be presently. That bullet has to be bitten. If Putin wins in Ukraine, do you think that will be the end of it??? Where will he attack next? Is it too far out to say Poland and after that maybe Enemy at the gates in reverse, with the Russian army on the German borders again? He has to be stopped, and the sooner the better. And the powers that be recognize that fully.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119458082#Comment_119458082

I think that will gradually stop when more longer range artillery becomes available to the Ukrainian Military.

bennyineire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119458249#Comment_119458249

The Russian army can't even get out of the Donbass my guy and is growing weaker daily, Putin has already lost this war. He certainly won't be taken on NATO. But I do agree that Russia needs to lose and lose bad, there has to be a generational shift in their national culture similar to Germany and Japan post WW2 to insure future stability in Europe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119457547#Comment_119457547

Thinks there are several options and solutions in place allready if Russia cuts the gas,but Germany and Europe will feel it over the winter,no doubt.

But Europe have been trough harsh winters before

https://youtu.be/tJP8AEDVk8M