Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Wibbs · 23-08-2022 8:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508762#Comment_119508762

A randomer on youtube who supports Ukraine and has done since the get go and has been on the ground since the get go too and who has no love for the Russians or what they've done and continue to do. One reason why his request to the Russians to report from their side was flatly turned down. Well they only want mouthpieces for their bullshít. Any journalists I've seen reporting from their side are farcically obvious as far as their allegiances go. Now we have seen similar with some western reporting of course, but the major difference is that we've also seen reporting of Ukrainian screwups and dodgy stuff. Never mind that pretty much any journalist can show up to Ukraine and be let in to report. I've not yet seen any indpendent western journalist get access to the Russian side.

Wibbs · 23-08-2022 8:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508989#Comment_119508989

Batteries don't explode. They can rapidly burn like bastards and if you're trapped in one it's not good at all as has happened, but they don't blow up and fire bits across a wide area like we saw in this case.

Igotadose · 23-08-2022 9:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508992#Comment_119508992

How many experts of note cropped up during Covid, experts that knew far more about virology than the armchair bod on the street, who were forecasting either the Black Death or a mere sniffle? No doubt there are other military experts that will say damn near the complete opposite to him. The main difference as far as the same bod on the street goes is who do we want to believe going in.

Irrelevant to the discussion. War's is more straightforward than virology and this guy really is an expert at war.

IMHO he's smoking crack if he thinks the Russians will give up Crimea anytime soon, diplomatically or no.

He didn't give a timeline about Crimea, just that Russia'd be back to the pre-24 Feb boundaries by the end of the year. All he said is he could see them leaving Crimea under a diplomatic agreement. I could think of some - go back and we'll lift some sanctions. I think there's a chance this may happen but diplomacy can take years. I can see a 'Cuba/Guantanamo Bay' settlement where Russia gets to keep its base at Sevastopol but otherwise, everything else on the peninsula reverts to Ukraine.

His main point is, give in to Russia and they'll keep it up. So, they have to be stopped, and more arms support for Ukraine is how.

He raised a good example, he said something like "The Russian Black Sea fleet is hiding on the other side of the Crimean peninsula, afraid of Ukraine who don't have a navy." This is another reason why he thinks Ukraine will prevail, they've balked the vaunted Black Sea fleet, sunk it's flagship and routinely cause mayhem for RuSSian fighter ships.

storker · 23-08-2022 9:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119507285#Comment_119507285

The Germans advanced all the way to Stalingrad in 1942 making huge territorial gains in a relatively short time. Look how that turned out.

storker · 23-08-2022 9:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508650#Comment_119508650

"The famous Russian Black Sea fleet is hiding on the other side of Crimea from a Ukrainian navy that doesn't exist."

😁

Bass Reeves · 23-08-2022 10:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508992#Comment_119508992

The Russian army is on the verge of collapse IMO. When the collapse comes it will be rapid. The Ukranian army has not deployed there tanks yet. While their tanks have limited use in modern warfare compared to NATO tanks they are still a serious option if the other side is fored to retreat. It would be a bit like an old scale battle where when a battle was over the calvary entered the fray and caused a complete rout of the retreating enemy.

At this stage militarily the Russian army are scraping the bottom of the barrel for equipment. It may not happen before the end of this year but it will happen.

The Russian artillery is now virtually useless as there gun barrel's have nearly or perhaps even over used there shell load. Any tank at the front is at its 1k hour factory overhaul limit( I always wondered why the NATO had so many trucks and trains for carrying tanks). They have never managed to gain air superiority.

Another factor that will come into play is the Ukrainian troops being trained by different NATO nations. The UK is training 10k alone, the US as many more if not more. It's a 120 day training schedule. I think France is training some as well and I imagine the rest of the NATO countries( especially the former eastern Bloc) are training groups of 500-5k. This could see a 30-50k NATO trained battle group arrive on the battlegrounds in the next couple of months

When these troops are unleashed along with more NATO technology they are trained in the ''game is up '' for the Russian army as a manager of mine use to say.

Wibbs · 23-08-2022 10:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509150#Comment_119509150

Irrelevant to the discussion. War's is more straightforward than virology and this guy really is an expert at war.

This is the same guy who claimed back in March that Russia was ten days away from running out of military resources? Some "expert at war". He's changed his tune more often than a coked up DJ. Remember how many claimed similar? And how many including on this thread were ready to believe them? When it was so obviously utter bollocks. Again it's down to who we want to believe.

I've repeatedly said Russia lost this war the second they crossed the border. They completely screwed up the run to Kyiv and the northern attacks generally. They underestimated Ukrainian resolve and feelings and fighting capability and the response of the western allies. They(and most everyone else) overestimated their troops and ability to supply them. And yep their Black Sea fleet is a joke. Their airforce incredibly lacklustre.

So they ran away from the north and Kyiv and concentrated in Donbas and the south where they had more support among locals and had been directly fighting there since 2014 and have more direct supply lines. They took and are so far holding the landbridge to Crimea. They have Donbas for all the good it'll do them long term and they're picking away extremely slowly along the front, but they are picking away. How much of the same front have Ukraine taken back. Bits and bobs too? This is long haul dogged stuff here. Russia's blitzkreig fell on its arse, so it's down to throwing lumps of metal at Ukrainian positions and it doesn't look like they're running out of the "dumb" artillery stuff any time yet.

Unless something changes radically like western allies giving more than they have been by way of long range stuff to hit them hard behind the lines and cut off their supply it's going to remain dogged back and forth slugging on the ground.

Cordell · 23-08-2022 10:19am

https://twitter.com/IssandJumal/status/1561781504975540225?s=20&t=HXimjFlDxYTbcphlBO0BUA

Shockingly bad job faking that ID, they're either badly incompetent or actually sending this message: we did it.

odyssey06 · 23-08-2022 10:23am

If the lie was plausible, believing in it wouldn't be a test of loyalty.

jmreire · 23-08-2022 10:25am

Russia is falling seriously short of manpower at this stage....soldiers who have managed to make it back home are bringing horror stories back with them, and not just about the deaths and injuries, but their rotten treatment at the hands of their own officers, failure of the military / Govt to honor bonus and salary contracts etc. When they have reached the stage where they have resorted to freeing criminals who "volunteer" to fight in Ukraine, to the recent report of Nth Korea sending 100'000 troops to fight for Putin, thats pretty much scraping the bottom of the barrel ( not to mention recruitment centers being bombed) If Vlad could have mobilized, he would have done it before now, the fact that he hasn't means he is unwilling to take the risk of an uprising within Russia itself. Apparently he has enough stocks of munitions to keep up the shelling for several years, but if he has not got the manpower to use the artillery, that's not going to work either. And that's not taking into account the condition of all this ammunition.

Bass Reeves · 23-08-2022 10:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509472#Comment_119509472

While he has loads of shells, artillery barrel's for the guns is the issue it seems

23-08-2022 10:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509498#Comment_119509498

They might resort to this...

zv2 · 23-08-2022 10:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508617#Comment_119508617

There's a lot of trolls on Twitter saying the west is losing interest. This is just propaganda to demoralize people.

Sunny Disposition · 23-08-2022 10:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509573#Comment_119509573

There's this assumption that people in the west are very selfish and have goldfish length attention spans. I think it's something Russia believed, that there'd be no appetite for supporting Ukraine, that the leaders would complain but go back to normal very quickly.

Western countries aren't going to stop supporting Ukraine, to wink and say 'feck you Putin, you yoke you, go on and have Ukraine'.

Rapes, massive slaughter of civilians outside Kyiv, a fake premise for war; there is no way the west will forget what's happened this year.

Snooker Loopy · 23-08-2022 11:06am

If Ukraine eventually takes back Crimea there's no fooking way the Russians are hanging onto Sevastopol for use by their navy.

Beware of those who claim a quick resolution is in sight. Crises in the age of social media can lead people into delusion and "saviour syndrome", or to believe crazy conspiracies. All of these things will be driven by performatively certain grifters seeking to make a name for themselves.

During the Trump shitshow of a presidency there were countless commentators who claimed that "Mueller has got this" and that Trump would be behind bars soon. Unfortunately that was never likely to be the case, as it was with Nixon. Mueller did the minimum, the Democrats did the minimum, and never properly went after Trump. The inertia in the judicial and political system as regards a criminal, especially a criminal president, is massive. There was real fear about what would come out if Trump was properly gone after.

During Covid we had a whole load of people who breathlessly came up with crackpot theories, that China had manufactured it as a bioweapon, that it was a World Economic Forum conspiracy, that the virus itself was a fake, that restrictions were designed to be permanent, that facemasks were dangerous, that the vaccines were state sponsored murder, that hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin were supposedly miracle cures, blah blah blah. All bullshit.

This war will be likely a long grind and the west, for all it is doing, likely still isn't doing enough, nearly, for it to come to the clear resolution that needs to happen. This could go on for several years, even many years. The Balkan wars lasted from 1991 to 1995 and even that wasn't the end of it because there was still Kosovo to come. The Iran-Iraq war lasted from 1980 to 1988, and these would certainly not be the last wars these countries were involved in.

Wibbs · 23-08-2022 11:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509612#Comment_119509612

The outrage is largely a sideshow sadly. It's more about two things; economics and geopolitics. Russia's "enemies" will be only too happy to keep this proxy war going and watch it bleed Russia dry. Even their "friends" like China are only too happy to be able to buy oil from them at firesale prices.

20silkcut · 23-08-2022 11:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509181#Comment_119509181

Yes but they had to be beaten back in 2 years of brutal war. The advances of 1918 were obliterated in the negotiating table at Versailles. Russian advances today will be obliterated eventually around a negotiating table too.

Snooker Loopy · 23-08-2022 11:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509612#Comment_119509612

The problem is western governments are subject to democracy, and democracy is shaped by media control and social media. The Russians are exceptionally good at flooding western media and social media spaces with agent provocateurs who poison public opinion. In my view there is a massive delusion in the west about the extent to which this has happened and the extent to which it has worked.

If the Republicans do well in the November elections that could seriously hamper the US's response. If this war is still going on in 2024 you could get Trump back in the White House in early 2025 - or De Santis who is just as bad - and a totally unhinged Republican party and its media pushing the Russian line - which could put the kibosh not just on Ukraine but on the west as we know it.

zv2 · 23-08-2022 11:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119508749#Comment_119508749

They seem to be making small gains. Here's one

https://twitter.com/1qCQDs3JLZ4oxs7/status/1562021966726455297?s=20&t=YrNekDSmzs8uqD8XY2mmmw

EOQRTL · 23-08-2022 11:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509708#Comment_119509708

So democracy is a problem now?

EOQRTL · 23-08-2022 11:27am

All i see is Russian weakness. Yes they are making small gains but in the grand scale they are going nowhere.

Sunny Disposition · 23-08-2022 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509708#Comment_119509708

The presence of Trump is still a huge worry, although I think his re-election would be far less likely if this conflict is still ongoing in a couple of years. Biden has handled the conflict extremely well, but it seems that won't do him any good domestically.

Snooker Loopy · 23-08-2022 11:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509760#Comment_119509760

Read my comment in the whole instead of going all pretend tabloid gotcha, thanks.

Russia's modus operandi is to use the very freedoms we have in the west to flood our information spaces with total bullshit and create an environment of mass stupidity where governments who do their bidding can be installed and bring down the west from the inside.

A functioning democracy depends on an informed populace. If you can flood the information space with enough propaganda, you no longer have an informed populace, democracy dies, tyranny takes hold, and catastrophe ensues. That's what happened in 1930s Germany. That's why any rise of far right sentiment is always a worry, because these bastards would only love to return western Europe to those dark days. We see that right now, where the far right cheerleads Russia in waging barbaric war.

Making people stupid and individualistic has been a core strategy of all those who desire authoritarian/kleptocratic rule. It's just done to varying degrees. Russia practises an extreme version of it, as does the far right media complex in the US. The right wing media in Britain practises a milder version. One thing the US right wing, the British right wing and the Russians are all in alliance about is they desire the rule of kleptocracy and the super rich. They differ a bit in the amount of basic freedoms they want to extend to ordinary people, and specific groups of ordinary people.

zv2 · 23-08-2022 11:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509439#Comment_119509439

The Russians have a number of serious problems (according to reports)

Their artillery is burning out and they can't replace it fast enough.
They are running out of ammo (?)
They are losing troops like sand running through your fingers.
Can't replace the troops they've lost.
Low morale, desertions.

Furze99 · 23-08-2022 11:53am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509436#Comment_119509436

The chief Russian weaknesses seem to be reinforcing troops / giving furlough to those already deployed. And their supply chains of food, equipment and munitions.

Snooker Loopy · 23-08-2022 11:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509782#Comment_119509782

The presence of the Republican party is still a huge worry. De Santis would likely be as bad as Trump. The whole party has become one big apocalyptic cult. It's going to be a terrible problem going forward, it threatens the whole concept of the west as we know it, could plunge the US into absolute chaos and hand long term global dominance to China and Russia, not to mention the implications that holds for the earth's climate.

23-08-2022 11:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509858#Comment_119509858

Hence the accusations that NATO and the US are propping up this war through their supply of weapons and assistance.

Russia has no qualms around sending soldiers to their death so the war will continue even if they are the weaker side but you can’t help but think at this stage that there needs to be some peaceful and long term resolution soon.

Snooker Loopy · 23-08-2022 12:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119509912#Comment_119509912

Your post doesn't make sense.

What "accusations" are you referring to?

There have been accusations that the US and the NATO countries are not doing enough. This would be my view.

The alternative, and what you seem to be accusing them of, is that they are doing too much.

Doing less than they are already doing would probably result in the end of Ukraine and a genocide on a much bigger scale than we are already seeing.

It's MORE that needs to be done so that this war can end with the clear victory for Ukraine and for freedom - and the humiliating and total defeat for Russia - that is so desperately needed.