Russia - threadbanned users in OP

For Forks Sake

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604824#Comment_119604824

...or a ground floor apartment

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604813#Comment_119604813

No, I can't see reason why 'Europe' or the 'EU' would assemble an army and invade Russia. That is assuming it returns to being a relatively normal stable state. If it maintains itself as a terrorist state attacking it's neighbours, then maybe but unlikely as that gets very expensive.

This war has being caused by Russian dreams of restoring some or all of the former USSR. The Brits and other empires have accepted the decline of their territories over time. It's clear that Russian nationalists haven't to date.

The sooner that idea is knocked from their heads the better for everyone.

And no, I don't believe this war was caused by NATO expansion.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604813#Comment_119604813

You can't really have a complete victory against an insurgency - insurgent groups don't play by the usual rules of engagement unless it suits them - and it's insurgent groups who the US has been facing off against in those Middle Eastern countries after the conventional military phases ended. If the insurgents have the will to fight, even massively outgunned, they can make an occupation an expensive and virtually impossible task over a long enough period of time. There's little political will in the US right now to get involved in another situation like that, but it's no skin off their nose to donate a load of big time weaponry to an ally in order to best an enemy in a conventional war, and they're not even losing any of their own troops in the process.

As for Russia adopting scorched earth tactics - if they could, they would. I doubt it's been their scrupulous nature holding them back from that so far. Maybe they were too busy deporting children and executing people in Bucha to really give it much thought, though, idk.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604788#Comment_119604788

Who claims the spoils of a defeated Russia? Recent Blitzkrieg tactics success aside in one part of the region, the war had become a stagnant trench warfare type grind with neither having the momentum to finish off the other in a timely manner. That has to come to an end somehow, in World War I it came to an end when the Americans poured fresh troops in and exhausted the Germans, if they had not it is likely the countries would have come to an agreement among themselves. In Russia and Ukraine, the authorities have silenced most opposition to them, and the ordinary citizen understands very well the pressure that can be applied if they step out of line, so the Russians can continue the grind albeit with reduced ambitions.

There is no evidence that the Russian economy is grinding to a halt, there is however evidence that Western Europe may be ground down by a depression caused by lack of material to run it's industries economically.

Wars don't last forever and at current rate it maybe the early 2030s before we have economic stability returned to Europe. So the question is what does a long lasting peaceful resolution look like?

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604370#Comment_119604370

Governments will have to tax fossil fuels much higher and make clean energy much more affordable and people will then switch. Yes, it will take time, maybe 5, 10 or more years to be fully achieved, but it will happen

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604890#Comment_119604890

The scattergun method of coping. Interesting.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604813#Comment_119604813

Lets look at this from another angle. The West (via NATO) has been involved in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria over the past 2 decades. How have those wars turned out, any complete victory to report after two decades. Lot's of treasure spent, whose standard of living has increased in that time?

OK let's look at them. Taking the BS reasons why they kicked the wars off out of it, the "West" took Afghanistan and held far more of it than Russia did on its attempt. The also lost a fifth of the combatants that Russia did in half the time period the West was there. The Iraq war was over in under a month and the US and Allies lost only a couple of hundred men. Compare and contrast with the farce that has been the Russian military's invasion.

And yep they all lost to some degree or other, or completely. Why? For the very same reason the Russians will lose this one. They were in someone else's land and they weren't wanted. But again compare and contrast the military effectiveness. Forget the Russians for a moment. If NATO had gone into Ukraine as an invasion force, do you really believe they wouldn't have taken Kyiv and locked down most of the country by now?

How do you think the West will react to a weak Russia that refuses to trade with them?

By doing what they're already doing now, pivoting away from what Russia sells. Which is essentially raw resources, they produce bugger all finished goods of any value. Even their "friends" China, who give two fecks for Mother Russia has more back and forth trade with Thailand than with Russia. You seem to forget that before the wall came down the old Soviet Union which was much larger with more people was in effect not trading with the West after the second world war.

Do you not think that the temptation would be to assemble an EU army and invade Russia?

Only in the mind of a Kremlinite that just dropped high power blotter acid. Easily swayed Russians might believe this kinda nonsense, because their leaders want them to, but Europe doesn't.

It should have been clear to putin early on when the Swiss of all people looked to the west, the EU and NATO rather than them. Even the English whose capital city is paved with the stolen gold of Russian oligarchs for decades thought feck this.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604507#Comment_119604507

Ukraine doesn't want to capture Russian territory, they want Russia off their territory. This isn't 1945

Dyr

dp

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604905#Comment_119604905

Fossil fuel are cheap because they're cheap, renewables are expensive because they're expensive, pissing taxpayers money away won't change that but it will tank your economy.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604865#Comment_119604865

Who is going to knock that sense into their heads? Their own people? At home the Russian people are not starving, and aside from the job losses for those who worked for MNCs, life goes on. The Union of the Committees of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia has been shut down last year as a foreign agent, and most soldiers are recruited from the poor regions of the Russian empire, so they still have cannon fodder and they will adapt their tactics over time. The opportunity for change does not really come until 2024 in both Russia and the United States.

DontHitTheDitch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604813#Comment_119604813

Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria were all fractured countries held together before war by brutal force rather than anything resembling a legitimate government. Once the leadership were removed they fractured into multiple factions, often fighting for different reasons and usually among themselves.

Ukraine is entirely different. For one thing, we haven't seen the kind of pervasive incompetence and inability to co-ordinate air, ground and logistics as we have seen from Russia. They have been pathetic, the incompetence and lack of intelligent oversight seems to run from the very top to the very bottom.

A weak Russia that refuses to trade with the west will be ignored and tolerated, like North Korea 2.0.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604929#Comment_119604929

Which is why governments are investing billions in the energy transition, it's a conscious effort that will take time and money to make these things affordable. Some things have to be worked for, progress is being made

joseywhales

The only advantage Russians have ever had is their ability to suffer. They have raw materials but you'd be surprised how in only a matter of years that hand could be taken away from them. Europe can pivot, sure it will be painful but they will develop other solution,sources of energy, trading partners

EOQRTL

Russians now using cruise missiles against power stations in Ukraine. They know they are going to lose, so they’re destroying what is left in a cruel and pernicious act.

My fear has always been what he might do now.

joseywhales

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604919#Comment_119604919

There stated goal is 1991 border. This can only be achieved by invading Russia in my opinion. Why would Russia give up territory gained in Ukraine without the jeopardy of risking their own territory?

Edit: and what will stop them from trying again in 10 or 20 years, if they don't have something to fear?

DontHitTheDitch

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604956#Comment_119604956

Putin took the humiliation of having to retreat from Kyiv without nukes or chemical weapons coming in to play. In terms of a propaganda-friendly way out, they have already brainwashed a large proportion of the population into thinking they were there to hunt down Nazis. You can always claim victory if the enemy never existed in the first place.

Call me Al

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1569044030272454663?s=20&t=uOujqt8SI8CefexHZTNavg

Wow. Simple but powerful from Zelensky.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604813#Comment_119604813

Look at it from any angle you want. The key difference is that (and this came as a surprise to Mad Vlad too, so you are in “good” company) is that the Ukrainians will take the help and use it. They already have, SPECTACULARLY!!!

You are pinning your hopes on the dirt Russia extracts from the ground (and that’s going to get tough once it needs repairs) is going to be needed by the West. Big mistake. In fact, HUGE!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604956#Comment_119604956

Strangely enough, for a person that holds that view to also say NATO should attack Russia.

Something whiffs.👃

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604992#Comment_119604992

Churchill would have been proud of that.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604890#Comment_119604890

"So the question is what does a long lasting peaceful resolution look like?"

This was outlined well enough earlier today - Russia withdraws all troops back across the internationally recognised borders between Ukraine & Russia prior to Feb 2022. That Crimea is a bargaining chip, Russia to keep on the basis of agreeing substantive reparation costs, the extradition of war criminals and a solid internationally backed treaty that will respect these borders and the autonomy of the Ukrainian state.

The alternative may be the restoration of Crimea to Ukraine and the complete defeat of Russian ambitions in Ukraine. Long term punitive sanctions to punish Russia, whilst the West largely picks up reconstruction costs and using seized Russian assets to help finance this.

Major loss of face for Russian interests but they have been heading down a losing path one way or the other, since the early days of this war. It was ill thought out and over ambitious and there's a price to pay.

Crocodile Booze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604813#Comment_119604813

Scorched Earth? They do not have the resources - all they have is an amateur plastic military and bully-boy threats and delusions.

It's time to realise the Russians have thrown everything at this and failed.

There's no Russian cavalry in the wings ready to save the day. The end.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605025#Comment_119605025

Crimea needs to be de-militarized apart from the naval base if retained by Russia.

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119604696#Comment_119604696

It's a ridiculous notion. It's a city of nearly 400k people. Can you imagine the size of the force Ukraine would need to take and hold it.

Raoul Duke III

Excellent piece by Anne Appelbaum in The Atlantic on the implications of Ukrainian victory. Well worth a read.

when Russian elites finally realize that Putin’s imperial project was not just a failure for Putin personally but also a moral, political, and economic disaster for the entire country, themselves included, then his claim to be the legitimate ruler of Russia melts away. When I write that Americans and Europeans need to prepare for a Ukrainian victory, this is what I mean: We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605015#Comment_119605015

Are you now saying Zaporizhzhia is in Russia because that's the only place i said NATO should be moving in to remove the Russians.

TheValeyard

Will be an interesting week ahead. So much has changed with this new phase of war.

Firmly believe the events of the past six days will go down in military history.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605095#Comment_119605095

You’ve said NATO should directly attack Russian troops, I can’t remember exactly what lunacy you were spouting… and yet you’re apparently worried Russia will retaliate with a WMD. 🙄

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119605097#Comment_119605097

I think, as the scale of the Ukrainian breakthrough becomes clear, that the truly momentous events will occur in Moscow and our focus will switch from the military realm to the political.

This could happen shockingly fast. Dictatorships can appear monolithic from a distance but in reality can be fragile edifices.