Russia - threadbanned users in OP

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615328#Comment_119615328

By the time the Russians try to come back, Ukraine would be in NATO, and Russia will not attack for the same reason they don't attack Estonia or Latvia (spoiler: it's not because of Russia's magnanimous nature). Ukraine won't be sitting on its hands while Russia sneaks off to formulate some better plan to figure out how to more efficiently murder Ukrainians.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615333#Comment_119615333

Everyone also knows the use of nuclear weapons needs approval of the military command in Russia,and i dont know of they are on speaking terms after a certain defeat in Kyiv and Kharkiv,and a certain opposition in the state Duma.

When the US attacks?US wont attack anything unless article 5 is broken in NATO and the use of nuclear weapons have been authorized by the president of the USA in self defence against a first strike from Russia.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615328#Comment_119615328

I think people desperatley underestimate how poor governance and the reflexive black-box decision making in the Kremlin makes for a chronically sh*t institution like the current Russian military.

Between government and the private sector (by which I mean as yet un-defenestrated oligarchs), there are probably tops 200 men in Russia that make things happen. Few to none are there on merit, and some have quite literally murdered there way to the top (most notably Putin).

It's unfair at this stage with what we know about how poor the Russians military is, but compare it to the professionalism of the US army. They have NCOs that would run rings around the Russian officer corps in terms of empowered decision making. Their logistics capacity is like Amazon. Their innovation cooperation with the private sector. Every wrench, every tire, every tourniquet and helmet is accounted for.

Russia needs to radically alter its system from the Kremlin down to be credible again. They exist on the residual power of the Soviet machine only (and even that was quantity over quality).

The cold hard reality is that if there wasn't a nuclear threat there, a NATO coalition would be deep into Russian territory sending their generals running over the Urals to hide in the forests of Siberia.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615328#Comment_119615328

On paper Soviet union had the resources to overwhelm Finland in 1939 and Russia Chechnya in 1994 as well,but they tend to underestimate their enemies and still rely on artillery to level cities and manpower as canonfodder in their tactics,just like in ww2.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615314#Comment_119615314

Yes, and what then?? If Russia decides as a last resort to use Nukes....then what? MAD? If Russia choses that path, then that's what thew will do.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615328#Comment_119615328

Ukraine goes into NATO much sooner than the 20 years and renders the problem moot, russia would need to look elsewhere for future expansion.

Say my name

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-dead-pay-attention-when-russia-starts-broadcasting-swan-lake-1707162

Russian never come out and say a thing. Always with the code. Watch for Swan Lake..🙂

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119614831#Comment_119614831

So...mobilisation it is, then.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615172#Comment_119615172

The Finns didn't have heavy artillery.

The Finns didn't have tanks.

The Finns didn't have the backing of the world's largest superpower.

The Ukrainians have all three.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119614196#Comment_119614196

The Kearsage and friends have been in the Baltic Sea for a while now, they took part in military excercises with the Finnish navy in mid-August - they're just there to remind Russia not to try anything stupid.

Yurt2

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62897570

US intelligence assessment suggests USD 300m was spent by Russia since 2014 bankrolling (typically right wing) parties in 24 countries.

US intelligence briefing certain countries on the matter.

Would love to know if any of that money was expended in Ireland. I would expect nothing significant but we know for certain they have cultivated dissident republicans with freebie Russia trips to nonsense Putinist forums.

It wouldn't bring the roof down to find out they were throwing a few quid to the likes of the National Party or certain MEPs (wouldn't be right of me to name names there would it?)

greenpilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615355#Comment_119615355

Ah, Julia. I've been watching her since her Frontline appearance in 2014. Well researched, buy full of smoke and mirrors and she has zero military knowledge or up-to-date facts. However, I agree with both of your points that Putin is, in fact, a moderate. Because I can tell you, he is surrounded by ultra-Nationalist overly-zealous generals who really do want to go all out and level Kiev. However, it's now too late.

Plus, she mentions that Russia is now fighting NATO because of the weapons being supplied. Nonsense. I have a British-made Lee-enfield rifle. ( it was my Dads.) It's probably one of the most accurate rifles out there. ( In Syria, I came across hundreds of them, still in use, with all the original cleaning gear still in the stock).It's British. It was used by one side of the Irish Civil War in the early 1920's and actually SUPPLIED to them by the British. Does this mean that some Irishmen in the war were actually fighting the British? No!

Trust me, if Nato does get involved, and personally I believe it will at some stage before this war ends, it will be game over for a functioning Russian administration in 48 hours. It will start with satellites being hit and go from there. A US-led NATO logistical operation is a sight to see. Christ, the US Navy was even doing a trial run Convoy across the Atlantic a few months ago to practice getting weapons and food to Europe without being attacked by subs. NATO has never been more ready since its inception, but they are not fighting the Russians, the Ukranians are.

Back to Julia. She's nice to look at, has amazing knowledge and contacts within Russia, but is playing to US audiences. Mark my words, she will be a US Secretary of State within 10 years, as a commenter also pointed out.

is_that_so

Sanctions biting just a little bit more.

Bloomberg has reported that the Kremlin’s gains from its fossil fuel resources, which account for more than a third of nation’s budget, fell to 671.9bn roubles ($11.1bn) in August, the lowest since June 2021, using calculations based on Russian finance ministry data.

The figure is down 13% from July and is a 3.4% decline from 12 months ago.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615314#Comment_119615314

We are back to the BOMB

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615660#Comment_119615660

It's BOMBastic, empty vessel making the most noise, boorish rhetoric.

Glenomra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615551#Comment_119615551

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119564750#Comment_119564750

A 'sight to see' certainly looked that way as they evacuated out of Afghanistan.

briany

@Bass Reeves

We are back to the BOMB

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

In fairness, there are days you put on the TV or see what's trending on Tik Tok and think to yourself, "A nuclear war wouldn't be the worst."

Addmagnet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615731#Comment_119615731

Ooh, is that the first line of your 'Da BOMB!' rap??

As for the better the Devil you know argument. Putin is moderate in the same way Stalin was moderate compared to Hitler (or is it the other way around, either way...). As for the various heir(s) apparent, they will big themselves up/say the right thing similar to how the UK ended up with their current PM... but, if they want to hold it they'll need to unPutin their actions.

As for the "argument" Russia/Soviet Union has always come back from adversity (ignoring Afghanistan where they didn't get to within an asses roar of how controlling the US had Afghanistan) they are missing two key points - Ukraine was probably the 'best of them' - now they are fighting against them. More importantly Russia has never taken on the West like the backing Ukraine has got. No, it's not the totally uneven relatively economic minow Russia versus NATO directly, but it's only 200 days into the war and Russia is looking exhausted (would love to debate anyone saying Russia isn't exhausted).

No amount of Russian leaning friends (not bots, but lets be honest) posting past glories versus the mighty Chechnya or how the brutal Stalin regime defeated a war ravaged Eastern Europe can take away from the absolute certainty Russia faces a humiliating defeat (the exact circumstances are as yet unknown). Less certain, but possibly irrelevant is Putin losing his life his job. Russia is going to be a geographically larger North Korea until they prostrate themselves before Ukraine and beg (i.e. pay) for forgiveness. Whether it's Putin doing the prostrating or someone else is irrelevant. "So let it be written, so let it be done."

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615328#Comment_119615328

In 20 years time Ukraine will be in NATO, possibly the EU and the only Russian invasion will be a Russian brain drain as they beg for jobs in the West focused Ukraine.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615345#Comment_119615345

Really you could have just spared us and yourselves the bother. The memes are neither clever nor funny.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615456#Comment_119615456

If there's one thing the US should shut the f*CK up about it's spending money to covertly or not so covertly meddle in foreign elections. The US has been meddling in foreign countries and propping up regimes it favours, sometimes very dubious ones, for decades. That's not excusing Russia by any means but in this case the hypocrisy stinks just a bit too much.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119614855#Comment_119614855

I saw a very good post on Quora earlier from a guy we'll versed in nuclear weapons and it puts alot of the nuclear bunkum in question. I'm posting it below. His words not mine

"As someone who has studied nuclear war for close to thirty years now, I am going to give you an answer that will blow your mind. Even if the entire Russian nuclear arsenal were used against Ukraine, it wouldn't substantially change the course of the war. How could I possibly say that? Because, the power of nuclear weapons has been used as a boogeyman for so long that the actual power of a nuclear detonation has almost no relation to their actual destructive power. No nuclear power can afford to actually use one in combat because it would expose the mythical nature of nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons are hyped to the point that no one contradicts it when a media outlet publishes a statement indicating that even a single nuclear device will destroy the world. This is a blatantly, stupidly, obviously untrue, but never corrected. After all, two were used in WWII. BUT that is just the tip of the iceburg. I thought there had been a couple of hundred nuclear test that prove this point. I was off by over an order of magnitude. There have been nearly THREE THOUSAND NUCLEAR DETONATIONS ALREADY, that are either known or suspected and this has not effected the survivability of life on Earth even slightly.

Well then, how dangerous are nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons, if they weren't their own catagory, would be classified as incendiary weapons. They set stuff on fire. They set a lot of stuff on fire. In fact they can set things on fire as far as two miles away from the actual detonation. Besides this, nuclear detonation are very bright, capable of blinding people 20–30 miles away. This is only constrained by the curvature of the earth. They also create hurricane force winds as the air around the detonation expands and contracts. If you are outside and unshielded and within a mile of a nuclear detonation, you are going to die.

The problem here is that Ukraine is really big. I mean the size of Texas big. Cities there tend to be spread out in modern times and their larger ones cover over a hundred square miles. The average nuclear detonation are only burn 2–3 square miles of territory. A city the size of Kiev would take on the order of 200 warheads to cover the whole thing.

Which brings us to our next point. Modern cities are just not that vulnerable to incendiaries. Modern city centers and industrial areas are made of concrete and steel. Most of the damage in Hiroshima and Nagasaki was done because almost all the buildings were made of wood and paper. The initial blast set the city centers on fire which spread and ended up burning down most of the city. Modern cities are just not that vulnerable. In Ukraine, despite millions of rounds of being poured into their cities, not one of them caught fire and burned to the ground like the Great Chicago or Great London Fires in the 19th century or the fire storms of WWII. In the Japanese nuclear detonations, the brick buildings were still standing, despite being much less sturdy than modern buildings. This leads to the most surprising revelation about nuclear detonations: If you are not outside, you stand a good chance of surviving even within the blast zone. Nuclear blasts are mainly line of sight killers. The vast majority of “radiation” created by an nuclear detonation is infrared radiation, or heat the same as a gas stove or fireplace makes. Unless the building you are in is collapsed by the wind or you fail to leave if it catches on fire or you happen to be in front of a window with a direct line of sight to the detonation, you are probably going to be fine.

Thus we get to the real reason why Putin will not use nuclear weapons: they're just not all that effective compared to the boogeyman that is in our collective imaginations. Were a nuclear missile to detonate over central Kiev, no one would believe that it was an actual nuclear blast because the city is still there and all the major buildings are still standing.

Secondly, he doesn't have very many of them. The numbers given for the Russian nuclear arsenal are an outright farce. You get that number by taking of bombs that the USSR claimed to have built, and subtract the number used in their testing program. This leaves you with about 9,000 warheads. First of all, Russia doesn't have nearly enough delivery systems to put those warheads on. The second problem here is that nuclear warheads have a very short shelf life. Nuclear warheads require a detonator made of conventional expolsives. These detonators are some of the most precision pieces of engineering in the history of mankind. A series of explosives has to go off in such a way that the core is hit by the same amount of pressure from all directions simultaneously. If any of those explosives are even slightly off, the nuclear warhead will not go off. You now have an extremely precise machine sitting around a core of material emiting hard radiation. Hard radiation is not friendly to machines. Nuclear warheads need to be rebuilt a least every five years and maintained a lot more often than that. Even with that, a twenty year old warhead is a piece of junk. It's been more than twenty years since the Putin kleptocracy came to power. I'm sure that Russia has a number of Potemkin warheads that are kept in top shape for inspectors, but given the current Russian system, the Russian nuclear arsenal most likely resembles the Russian tank reserves: the bare minimum kept in service while the rest is a scrap pile.

Currently, the spector of the vast Russian nuclear arsenal is the last card he has in his hand. If he were to actually use it, it would expose that he never had anything but a junk hand and bluffing to back it up."

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610037#Comment_119610037

Kazakhstan will look to China for security guarantees to protect From a Russian invasion.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615792#Comment_119615792

Never forget that Russia is a massive, absolutely massive country with a hugely powerful economy and unlimited natural resources. When winter sets in, Europeans will prostrate themselves to Putin to turn back on the gas and Biden will do a deal and the Zelensky will be hung out to dry. Ukraine will have to formally sign over Crimea and most of the Donbas. This is the way the world works and it's only a matter of time. Putin will mobilise and a million more troops will pour across the border and it will be done. And don't forget our Islanders and the T-13 Armadas and all those hypersonic missiles that we can use to level Kiev. The West will be terrified we'll use our nukes and they'll blink.

Darth Putin

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1569870269191229440?s=46&t=LLFAZC-Kijhq_A3e-M-dAQ

meantime on everyone’s favourite prime time show

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615773#Comment_119615773

I really don't think that prostration will happen while Putin is in charge, so he'll either have to be sacked or become temporarily disorientated on a late night walk and fall out of a 12th storey window.

Russian state TV and Sergei Lavrov have both sounded off at different times, saying that Russia is essentially at war with NATO because of the support that NATO member countries are providing to Ukraine in this conflict. I don't know if Putin has said the same in public, but because that idea is out there among the Russian public, if he turns back now, his critics on the hawk side will say that he basically surrendered to NATO, and he's already getting mounting criticism from the other side of things for continuing with the war.

If he's going to get criticised either way - if the knives are coming out for him whatever why he goes - he may as well figure that he should just do what he thinks is the right thing, and Putin hates NATO expansion, curses the fall of the USSR and the collapse of its sphere of influence, and wants to take the West down. This invasion of Ukraine appears to be a major culmination of his mission to reverse the world order as he sees it, so I believe he will die trying to make this invasion a success. He's in too deep to go back. Somebody in Moscow please grab an ice pick and make themselves famous.

Psychedelic Hedgehog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615847#Comment_119615847

Erm, "missiles that we can use to level Kiev", "we'll use our nukes"

It appears your account has been hacked :)

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615847#Comment_119615847

For the first time ever I will echo a few posters I seldom agree with and say there clearly are some Russian bots or just plain idiots active on this thread. Your post is so obviously wrong that I won't even waste words refuting it. Just watch the news - yes, even your Russian news - to see what the current reality is

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119615847#Comment_119615847

Russia: "a hugely powerful economy". What are you smoking?