Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Curious_Case

Dear Cheerleader,

Why would the Ukrainians rush in, all guns blazing, to Kherson when there may be negotiations ongoing with the Russians?

The Russians may be using a dambusting strategy merely to gain time or leverage. Probably though, they're simply following orders for the time being.

Possibly, the Kharkiv success is the "proof of consequence" while the Kherson situation is a "demonstration of restraint".

Yours faithfully,

Voice of Reason

greenpilot

"Ukrainian aviation conducted 12 air strikes at gatherings of Russian military. Ukrainian air defence shot down 3 Su-25 and a Su-24M, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

8mv

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621054#Comment_119621054

I lived there also for a number of years but only drove once - for good reason. Around Belorussky Vokzal I could only go with the flow and hope for the best. It was a gamble.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621336#Comment_119621336

But , but, but the Russians ..

Nahh nevermind

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621163#Comment_119621163

The offensive in Kherson have been going on for months,and the main focus of the Kherson offensive was to draw russian reinforcements down from the Donbas/Kharkiv region in a deception to weaken the defence lines in Kharkiv.

And once that happened,Ukraine went full attack in Kharkiv,and Kherson came to a halt,because the russian troops there are soon without supplies and ammo anyway, because all access,bridges,pontoon bridges and ferries have been taken out more or less.

And all Ukraine have to do now is continue taking out access routes and supply lines in Kherson and wait it out.

And offcourse there are casualties,but not as bad as the Russians thats retreating and on the run

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621290#Comment_119621290

Was listening to an episode of BBC's Ukrainecast (think it was https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0cy4b04).

Afair a person interviewed on this suggested this sort of thing may be happening more frequently due to pressures on these large Russian businesses, especially ones that were Western facing who are now cut off from that market through sanctions & the ongoing EU-Russia economic/energy warfare.

As the squeeze comes on them there may be reversion to the viciousness that was present in the Yeltsin/early Putin "Mafia" era where these companies would struggle with each other and tactics like hits on rival executives/managers were not out of bounds.

Of course some of them may even be suicides (imagine it is quite stressful watching your whole company business model & possibly large amounts of personal wealth going up in smoke for good, thanks to Putin's invasion).

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621429#Comment_119621429

...or maybe russia is bringing a whole new meaning to the term, 'managing out the door'!

greenpilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621076#Comment_119621076

As a so-called anti-war advocate, you're doing a pretty bad job understanding your subject matter. Do some research on Russian AF limitations and tactics.

A few points that you're conviently forgetting, or possibly are unaware of:

1. Russia have never had control of the skies, from day one.

2. Russia has NO AWACS in the Theatre. The two IL-76's that they had planned to use are still sitting on the tarmac in Belarus because they are afraid to use them in Ukrainian airspace due to Ukranian air defences. Russia, therefore, has no top-down realtime data on air movements.

3. NATO have 11 AWACS/SIGNIT/JSTARS aircraft operating around Ukraine, with a reach that stretches well into Russian territory. Every Russian flight is tracked and that information fed back to Ukraine. Russian jets can only either fly Nap-of-the-earth ( where they succumb to MANPADS) or too high, where they give the game away. That video of the 2 x SU-25's following the road with the GoPro's strapped on is a promo video.

4. Russian aircraft should be pounding the Ukranian offensive right now, with their hundreds of aircraft, but they're not. Why, because they are unable. Russian AF doctrine prevents it from providing Close Air Support to troops in a rapidly changing environment. This is where NATO excels, by the way. US air assets can conduct multi-role, multi-targeted strategic missions with a multitude of platforms all linked together with a secure data link. The Russians cannot do such a thing. That's why you only ever see Russian jets fly in pairs or, at a push, 3 jets while conducting operations. They simply do not have the training.

5. As long as Ukranian troops KEEP MOVING, the Russian Airforce cannot touch them. Russian pilots are basically airborne artillery. Commanders on the ground pass on co-ordinates ( often old) to the pilots, and the pilots come along and bomb those co-ordinates. Doesn't work if your enemy keeps moving. SU-25 pilots do not have the independent hunting capabilities that A-10 pilots have. They're ( quite happily) restricted to just one mission at a time.

6. Thank the Germans. Many of the Russian aircraft casualties of the last few days have been due to the German Gepard anti-aircraft guns.

You see, I know you've read all of the above already, but choose to ignore it because the VIDEO YOU POSTED CAME FROM THE FORBES ARTICLE FROM WHICH I'M QUOTING!! lol.

Anti-war?

Anti-facts, more like it.

But keep going, it's good craic reading it.

Prigozhin,the man behind wagner group and Putins troll farms are recruting prisoners in Russia

https://youtu.be/ufOVEKwY2sw

greenpilot

Some Aviation Sleuthing...

1. First commercial flight out of Ukraine since last April! Flight occured last Tuesday, out of Lviv. You can see it appear just as it crosses the border, as they switch on their transponder.

Polish Air assets are conducting a lot of mapping and surveying right up to the border all along its approaches. Preparing for something, maybe? Who knows.

Private company Draken Europe are currently training AWACS personnel aboard a Dassault 50 South of Moldova. Where better to train.

...and an EP-3 Orion is back on station.

In fact, there are a lot of air assets operational at the moment.

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119619934#Comment_119619934

Unfortunately you are way off the mark. He's very much still alive.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/15/xi-and-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-taiwan-at-uzbekistan-meeting

EOQRTL

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119620061#Comment_119620061

Ah come now that's tin foil hat stuff. You are better than that.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621395#Comment_119621395

No, you are right. And especially if there was any history of mental instability or nervousness in the family, it could bring it out in you. I drove quite a lot in the various republics, which were not as hectic as in Moscow, but equally as dangerous, and even more so, as they can travel a bit faster, and vodka as a side dish at every meal was common practice. and if you were driving for any length of time, you would see loads of examples of dangerous driving, and that's in the summer......winter is a whole new ball game. I know people whop have adapted to it very well, but for the newcomer......be careful out there!!!!!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621028#Comment_119621028

I very much doubt there would be western support for the retaking of Crimea. There are a lot of genuine Russians there, it will be defended to the last, and may well tip Putin over the edge in terms of mobilisation or escalating the type of weaponry. It would an easy sell to the Russian public that Ukraine and NATO were actually invading Russian territory, would likely unify the hierarchy and media and would change the tone of the whole situation.

nigeldaniel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621520#Comment_119621520

I would say they have one or two on here doing work placements to polish their online flubberblustering skills. As for Wagner lads, skills in crashing cars and shooting their own big toes off is about it.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621838#Comment_119621838

If/when Kherson falls, Russia may not have much of a choice but to withdraw. It is in Kherson Oblast, more precisely at the Nova Kahovka dam, that the North Crimean Canal, the primary source of fresh water for Crimea, branches off. The canal provides 85% of drinking water for the peninsula. If this were to fall back into Ukrainian hands, Crimea would be left high and dry, literally. Don't forget that much of the land area of Crimea, up to 75%, consists of steppe land that has only been made arable thanks to the canal. Only the southeastern part of the peninsula, the Crimean Mountains, produce significant amounts of their own drinking water, mostly in the form of rain runoff from the mountains.

As for international support for retaking Crimea, even that vacillating useless wet blanket called Olaf Scholz has on numerous occasions stated a return to pre-2014 borders is the only acceptable outcome of this conflict, and both the US and the UK have in the past gone on record in supporting this as well. I doubt that the latter two are going to go back on their word.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621520#Comment_119621520

I wonder how many recruits that little sales pitch yielded???? Prison in Russia maybe bad ( see Black Dolphin ) but the front ( or any lines ) in Ukraine would be infinitely worse.

Dufflecoat Fanny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MbGOFOTt-E

Live stream

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621962#Comment_119621962

I’ll believe that when I see it. I’ve mentioned earlier that I’ve Russian friends who I have been in touch with and spoke in detail earlier in the conflict. They are anti Putin and against the whole thing….western educated and were employed by western business. But their view of Crimea was that it was Russian and took a very different perspective on it being part of this conflict. Even they could swing behind Putin if Crimea was in play.

you’re right in that the next approach a probably to isolate it. Effectively put it under siege

retaking Crimea by force may be supported but it will without question change the balance within Russia and would be a very bloody battle

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621838#Comment_119621838

It will be Ukraine who decides the future of Ukraine, not the west or Putin. And my money would be on they restoring it to where it rightfully belongs, in Ukraine. And as for it being "Red Line" for Rusia, so what???? How many lines have they crossed now? ( Red Blue, Black Yellow? )

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621216#Comment_119621216

"By the way, cutting off water to civilians is a war crime. The Ukrainians cut the water supply to Crimea since 2014."

Give us a break FFS!!!!!! Considering the havoc your heroes have inflicted on innocent people of the region.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119622050#Comment_119622050

The thing about Kherson and Crimea is that it makes sense for Ukraine to expand their counter offensive that direction in coming months. It would also be a huge setback to Russia if Crimea were to be retaken. That might eventually bring home to the wider Russian public, what a complete cock up their government has got them in. Bringing the war to major Russian cities would also do that but that's not going to happen.

is_that_so

Reuters report on German equipment supplies planned. I'd forgotten about that circular arrangement they were working on.

Reuters is reporting that Germany has given more details of its intention to supply further equipment to Ukraine. Defence minister Christine Lambrecht said in Berlin that her country will supply two more multiple rocket launchers to Kyiv.

“We have decided to deliver two more MARS II multiple rocket launchers including 200 rockets to Ukraine,” she told a Bundeswehr conference, adding the training of the Ukrainian operators was expected to start in September.

“On top of this, we will send 50 Dingo armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine,” Lambrecht announced, referring to a type of armoured vehicle.

She also said a deal on a circle swap of infantry fighting vehicles with Greece and Ukraine was almost completed, meaning Germany would soon hand over 40 Marder IFVs to Greece while Greece, in turn, would pass on 40 of its Soviet-built BMP-1 IFVs to Ukraine.

Hobgoblin11

https://t.me/air_alert_ua/25575

Zakarpattia Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ivano-Frankivska Oblast, Volynska Oblast, Khmelnytska Oblast, Poltavska Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizka Oblast, Dnipro, Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Zhytomyr, Zhytomyrska Oblast, Vinnytska Oblast(16:50). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119622135#Comment_119622135

I think that taking the war to Crimea would be seen by many in Russia as taking the war to a major Russian city and would definitely solidify support for the war across the population (at least that’s the message from my small statistical sample of Russian work colleagues and friends)

maybe it will be done and will be supported, but I think that the allies will pause and give it serious thought. It’s certainly not a no brainer, irrespective of what Zelensky wants

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119622281#Comment_119622281

They're already being told Western forces are operating in Ukraine and that Belgorod is under constant attack. Will they care more about Crimea than Belgorod?

I'm not sure what the solution should be for Crimea myself but Russia can't be rewarded for taking it. If international peacekeepers could have been allowed in in 2014 we might have have more than a sham referendum.

I think an independent Donetsk and Crimea should be negotiated as part of a Russian withdrawal with an eye to a referendum in each after a few years when the dust has settled. At that point the options could be integrate with Ukraine, integrate with Russia or defer for another period. Even though Russia hasn't even managed to take over the complete Donetsk but it can be claimed that it's giving them Russia some of their initial goals of going into Ukraine in the first place. I don't know though. Just spitballing really.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119621972#Comment_119621972

A lot of criminals aren't the brightest. I can imagine plenty of men serving 10-15 years for brutal crimes fancying a stint in Ukraine, planning to murder some poor bloke in some random village, steal his clothes and slip anonymously into the a vast country where many speak Russian as a first language and just hope they don't get caught

is_that_so

Two loud explosions have been reported this afternoon in the southern part of the Russian-occupied Melitopol, a city in the Zaporizhzhia oblast, Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov said on Telegram. He did not elaborate on the explosions, but hinted at “losses of the enemy”.

jmreire

And what about ( I know, I know...whataboutery!!! ) the original Crimean occupants ( Tatars? ?? ) who were driven out, and replaced with Russian passport holders? Same as what they did in Georgia??? And bear in mind, what has been going on since February in Ukraine has been a full scale war....never mind Putin.s "limited Military Action ", and now they are scraping the bottom of the military barrel for weapons and manpower..even to recruiting in the prisons, and getting weapons from N K. That does not sound to me presently like a Country in any condition to start another war.

Say my name

http://brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/

There's 140,000 Ukrainians that were bullied out of Crimea and their homes taken that might disagree @[Deleted User] .

It's been a part of Ukraine since the 50's. Putin being allowed by the world to take it in 2014 was a precurser in allowing the thought process to develop in Russian military minds for this current invasion.

Russia has enough of land and country as is to resettle any residents in Crimea that have an affinity with Putin's warmongering.