Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695627#Comment_119695627

could he strike or disrupt or damage in some way the centre in Germany, the airport in Poland or Romania, or the border crossings and distribution centres in Kiev, Odessa, on the Romanian border?

Its a pretty easy question to answer though - no. Beyond the question of capability (and that would be far from clear) it would be cause a monumental backlash against him if not fully dragging NATO countries into the conflict. Beyond which, the route these supplies have been taking is well known to the Russians and they have been threatening to attack the supply lines for months. It is quite clear they do not have the precision weapons to do so.

greenpilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695522#Comment_119695522

Nope, everything that comes into this thread is not just from Twitter and Telegram. There are other, much more reliable OSINT, sources. Personally, I never use Telegram and I'll only repost a twitter snippet after I check the source material. In actual fact, you glean better information from the threads below Twitter posts, than the OP post itself.

Live UA Maps is a particularly good filter.

But, I see your point otherwise...

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695622#Comment_119695622

Some analysts say this is the first time in a history that a country has tried to legally annex territory in the middle of a war in those territories. It's unheard of.

Run Forest Run

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695503#Comment_119695503

There is far more to the world than Europe.

Countries like China and India etc are going to be the economic powerhouses of the next generation.

Russia knows this, hence why it has been working very hard for the last decade to build strong relationships with the SCO and BRICS groups. And those relationships so far seem to be surviving this conflict reasonably well. But only time will tell of course.

It's unlikely that Russia will be as isolated as some people imagine. And the US & EU are facing into some big challenges themselves over the coming years, so there is no guarantee of exactly where their position will be globally in the face of a shifting geopolitical landscape.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695677#Comment_119695677

But Russia is far from close to those countries. There is a huge amount of mutual distrust and they are the type who would stab each other in the back at a moment's notice. The G7 countries (plus the EU) have a generally warm and friendly relationship by comparison.

Wes M.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695677#Comment_119695677

Yes, I agree with much of what you're saying and one thing is certain - there are no certainties nowadays...

And yet, I believe, and perhaps some here will say it's a Disneyish notion, that countries like China (and to a lesser extent, India) need a radical re-calibration of their societies if they aspire to become dominant superpowers. I think the West, for all its flaws, will remain superior as long as authoritative regimes stifle individualism and innovation, disregard the checks and balances of government, erode human rights and pursue policies of censorship and exclusion. But I'm straying off topic here and it’s a conversation for another time and place.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695627#Comment_119695627

Surely as things stand, Russia can only attack targets within Ukrainian borders, so they must wait till military and other supplies cross the border. To target locations in other adjacent states would have to be major escalation.

Personally I think that a combination of domestic unrest and dissatisfaction in the military will unseat the regime. The regime may head that off by making a strategic withdrawal, on the basis that they are not warring with Ukraine anymore but the collective might of the USA and NATO etc etc.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695870#Comment_119695870

Plus Russia has turned to Iran and North Korea for weapons. Says it all about their standing.

Wes M.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695987#Comment_119695987

I think this is an increasingly likely option for the Russians. They've been sugar-coating various retreats in the last few days (I'm being kind by calling them retreats), but it's a way to sell it at home - that Russia bravely fought against the tide of Western Satanism, but in the end the Devil really does have all the best tunes, with that huge arsenal the West have at its disposal. Who knows, a few of them might even keep their jobs, which is all the Kremlin really cares about at this point...

timmyntc

Ukrainian advances are a positive sign, however they need to be careful not to overextend themselves with these recent advances.

The russians seem to be prioritising personnel (lol - in as much as russians can value a life) over territory, likely because they are outnumbered big time. Hence the partial-mobilization too.

The war will not be won in this year, and maybe not in the next either - so its important Ukraine don't waste too many men to reclaim territory, otherwise the russians will claw it all back and more. The war will only end when 1 side can no longer keep it up due to lack of money or men - sadly there will be no capitulation due to troops surrounding moscow (nor will the same happen to kiev)

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695677#Comment_119695677

China faces several big problems to overtake the likes of the US and Europe. Corruption is a huge issue and endemic to the society(similar in India). The Chinese themselves make much of their public anti corruption trials to try and tamp it down. It hasn't. Big western companies are well big enough for the Chinese to make sure things go smoothly for them, but smaller Western companies have no such guarantees. And that's before we get to all too widespread intellectual property theft.

China keeps the big Western companies sweet because they're a huge percentage of their revenue, and along with a once highly advantageous young and cheap demogrpahic it's what drove their economy and made China the economic powerhouse, never mind the near trillion dollars per year they earn in turn from their US and EU markets. Compare and contrast the Russian value of 50 billion to China. As pointed out above Thailand is worth more to them. If you waved a magic wand in the morning and removed all Western companies and their trademarked and licenced Western manufacturing from China it would be an economic bloodbath. If your removed Russian companies it would barely be noticed. Their below cost oil sales would have a bigger impact. China knows this all too well and China isn't stupid or suicidal.

China is heavliy protectionist over her industry. Which sounds great on paper, but it isn't. The US and Europe have seen industries come and go, sometimes calamitously, but have adapted and come back. China has yet to prove it can do the same.

Then we have their looming demographic problem. They're getting older before they're getting wealthier. By the middle of this century the average age in China will be over a decade older than the average age in the US. The EU will be a little behind China in this, but Europe is already richer. India is in a much better position here. Then we have their banking/investment sector that is shakier than a three legged dog with parkinsons, on a unicycle. They're looking down both barrels of the largest asset boom and bust in world history.

China is an empire more than a country in the Western sense. This tends to mean moments of advancement and economic booms, followed by long periods of stagnation and that has been the case with China throughout her long history. It also means a top down heavily centralised government. I also means more chance of internal division and uncertainty.

India had cleverly played both sides and did so throughout the Cold War and they will continue to do so. As more Western companies like Apple etc invest into their market, Russia will increasingly look a bit of a damp squib to their bottom line.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695987#Comment_119695987

The collective might of NATO is exactly what Putin has been looking to challenge. Ukraine is but one theatre in an overall project to overturn the world order as he sees it, although I would say the most important one to Putin so far. If he did order a large-scale retreat, he would want it only to be tactical. His choices, as things stand, appear to be stay and lose, or leave and lose. His only hope is to try and hang on and hope for some big and improbable turn around, otherwise I don't know how his premiership is tenable.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695627#Comment_119695627

If Putin or Russia are stupid enough to attack a distribution centre in Poland or Germany, their army in Ukraine is going to be destroyed in 72 hours and their Black Sea fleet will be sunk.

I personally don't see a counter from Russia, Conventional or Nuclear. Putin and Co. are great on putting on a brave face and talking the talk. But that is all they have to control the domestic population going through this cluster ****.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696086#Comment_119696086

Ukrainian advances are a positive sign, however, they need to be careful not to overextend themselves with these recent advances.

In fairness, this is what they are doing. They appear to be very calculated, and methodical, unlike the Russians. The Ukrainians are happy to attack, get some territory, encircle a few towns and then re-group to go again and again.

The Russians are getting a mauling, that will go into the history books. And the Ukrainians are fighting with one hand behind their back as well. Image them with the creme de la creme of NATO gear?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696109#Comment_119696109

Correct. China has very big structural issues that will find it hard to overcome the US and Europe. Namely their aging population time bomb and their semi-closed society and their totally closed politics. These chickens will come home to roost.

Discodog

I was listening to a military commentator who suggested that the Russians don't want to use advanced aircraft because their, supposedly secret systems, will be monitored by Nato.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696228#Comment_119696228

What are the Russians waiting for? A war? 😆

Boggles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696228#Comment_119696228

Military commentator or some lad in the pub?

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119694666#Comment_119694666

"Eamon Ryan wants to bring in 5 million (Ukrainian refugees)", sounds like most threads here on boards.ie.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696228#Comment_119696228

The Ukrainans have shot down everything they have bar the heavy bombers and su57 which they only have 5 of .

josip

Big update on the LiveUA map in the Kharkiv region.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/3-october-ukrainian-military-in-borova-of-kharkiv-region

The Zerebets is now the front line, all the way north to the Russian border. Significantly, the mud season doesn't seem to have fully arrived yet in this part of Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1576860609110749184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1576860609110749184%7Ctwgr%5E454c0df471725df7a4679b2b87043b4a06349d8b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fliveuamap.com%2Fen%2F2022%2F3-october-ukrainian-military-in-shyikivka-of-kharkiv-region

... so it's not unrealistic to believe that the Ukrainians can push the Russians back to the Krasna as hoped/expected before they get bogged down.

Boggles

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63118050

He won't be going himself obviously. 😂

Hobgoblin11

https://t.me/hueviykharkov/82348

Ukrainians are right up to the Luhansk border now, will they tempt faith and try to enter Luhansk?

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119695660#Comment_119695660

If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! - YouTube

cnocbui

A sliver of good news, if accurate.

The Director General of ZNPP was released from captivity of the occupiers

Strazdas

Looks like the Nuremberg Nazi Party rally on Friday was even more fake than it looked. The 'Goyda' fruitcake was filmed by an attendee ranting to a totally silent crowd. It appears crowd cheering sounds were added on by the state TV propagandists.

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1576866894560169985

Curious_Case

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696428#Comment_119696428

It would be absurd for them to pay any heed to the "Song 'n' Dance" annexation.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119696401#Comment_119696401

Each of them will be equipped with the latest go-pro and a video editing suite.

Curious_Case

Breaking news: In a move inspired by "Loopin' Putin", Kim Dong Hung has shocked America by "formally annexing" Staten Island.

White House spokesperson quoted as saying "Staten Island could be gone forever if Kim holds a flash ceremony in a grandiose hall".

Wes M.

Pasted from The Guardian's rolling coverage: Russia has sacked the commander of its western military district, Col Gen Alexander Zhuravlyov, according to news outlet RBC.

I wonder what happens to the recently demoted/unemployed ? Do friends stop returning calls ? Does one lose its permanent seat at the Bolshoi ? Either way, it must be an awkward spot, especially when the likes of Vladimir Solovyov is calling for your execution on national TV...