Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Hobgoblin11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859466#Comment_119859466

they are in red on the map, usually means Russian

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859506#Comment_119859506

That is one of the few crossing points over the river. It seems highly, highly unlikely that the Russians are going to be targeting the crossing they are attempting to escape over.

TheValeyard

Reports of a Russian race to the harbour to get across by Bilozerka.

josip

I wonder how many will eventually be actually trapped. A few months ago when Izium was being encircled there was talk of thousands being trapped in the enclave but I think most of them escaped in the end.

A bit different this time having no overland escape route and relying instead on a Dunkirk-style evacuation. I wonder what would be the Ukrainian strategy for this? Target the boats and try to take as many prisoners as possible at the risk of 20,000 putting up some resistance? Or pound the evacuation points for a bit to soften the remaining soldiers. A bit of a logistical nightmare to take that many prisoners in one go all the same.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858966#Comment_119858966

Trump is a retard who never had an original thought in his life. He was of course plagiarising Obama.

Obama tells EU to do more to cut reliance on Russian gas

U.S. President Barack Obama told the European Union on Wednesday it cannot rely on the United States alone to reduce its dependency on Russian energy, as relations with Moscow chill over its seizure of Crimea from Ukraine.

They have already stepped up efforts to reduce reliance on Russia but German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she supported asking Obama to relax restrictions on exports of U.S. gas.

That was in 2014. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit-idUSBREA2P0W220140326

The Russians would want to be pretty dumb to blow that dam at this point given that it will flood the eastern bank worse than the western bank and thereby hinder their own retreat.

It would also cut off their own water supply to the Crimea as the canal that supplies it needs the water above a certain level, which that dam ensures.

Destroying that dam serves neither side any good, but at this moment, it would be worse for the Russians if it were to go

Russia should be happy they are not facing NATO instead,Ukraine would be a walk in the psrk in comparison

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1590776498298195968?s=20&t=WxAlaSQktZ6Rc-olGB13bw

Jinglejangle69

Why were they so slow to leave Kherson???

Hobgoblin11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859534#Comment_119859534

Id say they will bomb them to oblivion until they are mostly dead or gone across the river

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859534#Comment_119859534

Methinks once some of those boats cross they won't be coming back. The troops left behind will be dealing with an ever shrinking supply of boats.

TheValeyard

Lol. This cnut is fairly angry.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590827196079550464

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859561#Comment_119859561

I'd say troops on the ground hadn't an inkling they were going to be used to shield their comrades retreating. Remember the reporting structures in the Russian army deliberately keep the grunts in the dark.

With telegraphing a retreat on TV most were probably hearing this "plan" for the first time. What were these guys going to do then though one they heard the news?

The heads no more care about saving their own. It was a face saving exercise for the home audience saying that they care about their soldiers' lives. Revealing this a plan early makes it seem less humiliating than what happened at Kharkiv. They'll simply deny the body count.

That's my take anyway.

Edit: To fix awful typos. Too excited.

Francie Barrett

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859534#Comment_119859534

The claim of 10k Russians voluntarily sitting still and allowing themselves to be surrounded in Izyium was really dumb. Like a certain other claim that was made here a few days that I won't speak of.

I doubt at this moment there are still 20k Russians trapped. There was photographs of stolen boats/barges prepped for evacuation that were found by OSINT from a few days ago. We know the Russians have been evacuating troops from two weeks ago, they will have been leaving prior to the official announcement yesterday. The vast majority of Russians will certainly escape, but the situation based on reports tonight looks very bad. I can still see a scenario where maybe a few hundred Russians are forced to surrender. Nothing like that has happened before in a single day. It would be a massive win for Ukraine, and a huge embarrassment for Russia.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859618#Comment_119859618

Thanks

kevthegaff

Sholz went to China recently to further relationships with Xi. Many in the coalition were against the move while Macron wanted to go with him. Scholz declined the offer, Germany only really care about €€ and nothing else

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859585#Comment_119859585

Seems we in the west knew the condition and what was in the Stores. 🤣

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859561#Comment_119859561

Takes time to pack up the washing machine and all that. Especially while extremely hammered drunk.

Hobgoblin11

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/3956

President Zelensky: 41 settlements were liberated in the South of Ukraine

There will be many jokes told about tonight's theatrics once he gets back to his proper job

This is the top story in the Telegraph this evening. And I’ve heard the exact same thing on two different radio stations today as I was diving across the country. A former British army intelligence officer on Times radio and an American military analyst on Radio 4

“The US is urging Ukraine to use a "window of opportunity" for peace talks to end the war, as world leaders prepare for a showdown with Vladimir Putin at next week’s G20 summit.

A top US general said a lull in fighting over winter might open the door to a negotiated settlement, as White House officials hold direct talks with the Kremlin.”

It does seem, from multiple sources, like the White House is in direct talks with the Kremlin right now. Wonder if we will see a withdrawal of Russian troops sooner rather than later now the nuclear bluff has failed

I've given up on most of the youtube commentators who give updates on the war. About the only ones I watch now are:

Reporting from Ukraine - usually 5 min or less daily update. Very condensed, goes very much into the tactics and has very little waffle. Still a pro-Ukraine source but not overly so and will go into a lot of details on Ukraine losses and mistakes too without issue

https://youtu.be/0NaKT2bsoCg

Perun - An Aussie commentator, publishes a new vid once a week, Sundays, usually an hour long. Goes into insane detail on one topic a week, some Ukraine related, some not. Well worth a watch if you like doing deep dives into topics

https://youtu.be/qhBxPBTNBnU

William Spaniel - A guy with a background in game theory, probability and stats, he randomly publishes good vids delving into various aspects of the war, what likely results/outcomes might be, who the winners and losers will be and impacts of various strategies etc. Typically about 10-15 mins in length

https://youtu.be/WmqIJaTt4MM

So who else is good and worth watching?

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859030#Comment_119859030

Churchill! He was a racist who had little time for many races. He called the Indians a beastly race with a beastly religion. He directly ordered the slaughter of thousands of Bengalis. I don't believe the Irish were very high on his popular list either. All in all Churchill was a drunk who was fortunate to come out on the winning side.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859761#Comment_119859761

The top 2 are quality. I never heard of the third one. Will check it out, thanks.

Away from the military side of things Vlad Vexler is very insightful on the Russian pysche. It helps that he's a Russian himself who moved to the west and is a philosopher:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4O3D7CfThA&ab_channel=VladVexler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859585#Comment_119859585

He was still going through the denial stage there. Has since reached acceptance 😅

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859760#Comment_119859760

A few things I see wrong with that.

Firstly, the Ukrainians look like they are full steam ahead on going back to 2014 borders and this has been stated many, many times. They have no interest in anything else.

Second, NATO, the US etc will find it difficult to convince them to cede additional territory so whatever about settling at the pre-war lines, there is no way in hell Ukraine will allow Russia to gain a single acre from this invasion.

Third, given the level of consistent support the west has given, it will be difficult to just say to Ukraine "soz, you're on your own if you don't accept this" as there would be little to stop Ukraine publicizing this. Public support for Ukraine is still very, very high so this option would not fly with voters and would see western govts come under a lot of pressure.

Fourth, the west knows they have to bloody the nose of Russia in Ukraine otherwise Poland, Estonia, Finland, Latvia etc will be next. Russia can't be allowed to paint this as a victory in any way otherwise they'll be moving on to the next item on their shopping list.

Lastly, there is no gain for Ukraine in compromise and everything to gain for Russia. Russia wants 3 things

1. Stop Ukraine from developing its oil & gas as it would displace Russia as it could produce cheaper and have easier access to ready made markets
   1. It does this by holding on to Crimea and the Donbas
2. Stop Ukraine from joining NATO
   1. It does this by holding on to Crimea and the Donbas and causing disruption and skirmishes and inciting "republics" to develop
3. Stop Ukraine from joining the EU
   1. It does this by holding Crimea and the Donbas, causing mass refugee swarms to cause huge pressures in the EU. This will further the rise of the far-right in the EU and will allow for more pro-Russian heads of state to get into power who can then block Ukraine in the same way Hungary is blocking Finland and Sweden from NATO. Also, regarding refugees, if you thought it was bad before, wait until you see how its going to go once winter comes and Russia keeps knocking out the heat & power. There could be twice as many flooding into the EU

If Ukraine wants to join the EU or NATO then it must gain 100% control of its territory. Without that, it will never be able to control its own destiny

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859541#Comment_119859541

My understanding is that it mostly feeds the water irrigation systems in Crimea, rather than civilian water supply

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859761#Comment_119859761

The Telegraph and the Times daily podcasts on Youtube are actually well worth a listen for a daily update and analysis.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859826#Comment_119859826

The Telegraph and the Times daily podcasts on Youtube are actually well worth a listen for a daily update and analysis.

The Telegraph I haven't looked at so I'll check it out.

I gave up on the Times. Too much yapping and opinion, not enough actual info. They do have some good ones, especially when there's a General or someone on to speak as they pretty much get to the point, but mostly its lads trying to fill airtime which is just annoying to me.

TheValeyard

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1590835675393556480

Wonder if he's right.

threeball

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858367#Comment_119858367

There's no way the downing of the Malaysian airline should have been taken as lightly as it was at the time. Innocent lives snuffed out, children falling 30,000ft from the sky. That one incident should have seen Russia sanctioned to death. But they were far more interested in cheap oil and gas than they were in their citizens lives.

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859869#Comment_119859869

https://youtu.be/Ukz1oomcbcI?t=116

I imagine something like this in the morning.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859644#Comment_119859644

In fairness, 4,000 men of 30th Brigade did pretty much that in Calais in 1940. They deliberately invited themselves to be surrounded in order that the 300,000 men at Dunkirk could be evacuated. Granted, the difference was that they were outright told by Churchill that they were not expected to be withdrawn, and that their only two outcomes were going to be death or surrender. Hindsight indicated that it may not have been necessary, but there was no way for either London, nor 30th Bde to know that at the time their stand was made.