Russia - threadbanned users in OP

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147090#Comment_120147090

Germany, for better or worse, have not been able to siphon off nearly as much public money to their defense industries to make tanks. Even their stockpiles are low. Compare that to the Abrams stocks in the US - night and day the difference. Now the US likely couldnt produce enough new abrams' either, but they dont need to. they have the stocks to sell (or upcycle and sell). Germany do not have such stocks. So if EU countries send their leopards to Ukraine, they simply cannot possibly get those stocks replenished in the next decade.

So they will get abrams instead, and become new loyal customers.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147049#Comment_120147049

Kind of a conspiracy theory isn't it...?

The ongoing costs and harm of this war dragging on to Germany (while Ukraine is not supported enough to win by its backers) are such that I think any loss of defence sales if European Leopard 2 tanks go to Ukraine will be a rounding error.

If the tanks perform extremely well there (not impossible)...could be some renewed sales of them (or modernised/upgraded version), even if the customers have to wait a while for Germany to increase defence production to meet the demand.

The whole of Europe (and Asia) is very, very nervous and everyone is arming up (again). There is alot of future business to be had for all Western weapons companies with good products they are willing to sell (not just the US). Russia (which is I think a much bigger "merchant of death" than Germany or any Western country bar the USA) is probably not going to have industrial capacity to produce many extra weapons for anyone else for a while.

If IRC I think you were also a believer that Ukraine was definitely going to do some kind of nuclear contamination "incident" around Zaporizhzhia nuke plant (+ blame it on Putin) to drive the Russians out of the region, and that the Nordstream pipelines were blow by the British or the Yanks?😲

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147049#Comment_120147049

That scenario makes no sense. European countries aren't going to send all their Leopard stock to Ukraine and buy Abrams instead. If Finland send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, they will send 10-20 tanks of their older A4 stock (which are in reserve anyway), and keep the rest - and will possibly replace them with more modern models when it's possible to do so. They aren't going to buy Abrams tanks.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146489#Comment_120146489

They are not flying with soviet era tactics, they have been training in the US with and against F-15s, for years.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146798#Comment_120146798

He wrote a good article on the subject for the Irish Times last week too (January 14th). He says many Ukrainians told him they see Ireland as a role for Ukraine, a country that was able to transform itself within 20 years with EEC / EU membership.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147199#Comment_120147199

They are mainly using Soviet era aircraft, weapons and tactics, with the exception of the Harm /sead missions against anti aircraft systems

Yes small number of suitable candidates have been to America for some training and we don't know how many of those are still alive

charlie_says

With cheap money and tax loop holes for US corps....

Say my name

FBI agent in New York found to be working for Russia and taking money.

http://twitter.com/AP/status/1617568543192621057

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146726#Comment_120146726

Rocket Science 101

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction

A rocket works by pushing stuff out the back, in order make it go forward.

The stuff pushed out the back is gone for good, leaving orbits aside, you can only keep going forward for as long as you have stuff to push out the back.

Ergo, if it has unlimited range, it isn't a rocket.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147271#Comment_120147271

Not the first and won't be the last unfortunately, Russian money and gangs have long tentacles

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147188#Comment_120147188

Ukraine claim to need at least 300 MBTs. If European countries supplied 300 leopard 2s, Germany at current rate could replace stocks in only 12 years, with their current production rate of ~2 per month. Although in reality it would be longer than that, as other Leopard 2s need replaced during that time also. can they increase production? Eventually yes, but it will be very costly and in a time period of massive Producer price inflation for Germany. The logistics of making modern MBTs is a nightmare to scale quickly. There are several different factories and enterprises involved in making different components, all of which have their own supply chains that may or may not be able to scale quickly.

While theyve done well to get more LNG to replace russian gas, producer prices are still well above pre war for them. Without russian metals theyll do well to ramp up production in an anyway viable/affordable manner, compared to the competition (US).

If Ukraine win, then there is a great source of all kinds of metals and rare earths there, BUT it will take a number of years to get the resource extraction and facilities in place. The ones that existed before are all badly damaged now courtesy of "General Armageddon" and his indiscriminate bombing campaign.

As you said, this is a very nervous time worldwide and countries are re-arming and building up their defensive capabilities, so the potential of waiting several years just to get back to 2021 levels of stock of MBTs will not sit great with those Euro countries who give away their leopards. Many a deal to be struck to buy Abrams instead in that timeframe.

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147245#Comment_120147245

WTF???

Gatling

In other news turkey is public stating they will block any attempt from the swede's to join Nato after a public burning of the Quran outside embassy in Stockholm recently.

This could get ugly .

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1617562168022519809?s=20&t=1XtlTaVyB9QOKRCjrNj1bw

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147271#Comment_120147271

Well the FBI have a hell of a history of bad apples, from former director J. Edgar Hoover who had dirty files he used to blackmail powerful people with; two of the mob who took down the Silk Road stole a significant amount of bitcoin; The former director Comey who interfered in the Clinton/Trump election and cost her it, and the incomparable Robert Hanssen - most damaging traitor in US history.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147246#Comment_120147246

Sorry, but the Ukrainians are more partial to Leopards.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147349#Comment_120147349

Plenty of Russian scrap metal in Ukraine!

What a fitting thing, melting down Russian tanks and producing steel for Germany to produce leopards!

20Wheel

Fair notice. Edit to post number 77431.

vixdname

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120130304#Comment_120130304

This is completely for the home crowd.

Its Putin telling the public mindset that there's a "Threat" to mother russia and he'll unfortunately have to call another mobilization etc.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147349#Comment_120147349

I think you are (again) trying to integrate alot of bits of information from many domains (are you an expert in all of them?) and spinning various vaguely pro Russia conspiracies + pessimistic conjectures of how things may work out in future.

If IRC, another prediction (at the war's outset) was Germany/EU hadn't a prayer of obtaining sufficient gas supplies or indeed of ever transitioning energy production, that German economy (and thus the whole EU) would be cratered by the war and we would be freezing and starving without a cent, all at the same time.

The predictions of Germany (and rest of Europe) crying Uncle and crawling on bended knee to Tsar Putin have not come to pass.

edit: One thing I would agree with is perhaps some countries in Europe will increasingly want backfilling of anything they send to Ukraine as quickly as possible. Particularly if they are close to Russia. I would actually regard the US taking care of this as helpful rather than some conspiracy to destroy German/European defence industries given the level of fear I think these countries still have. They may be inclined to supply more of their current stocks of weapons to Ukraine at a quicker rate if there is defence industry capacity available there somewhere in the West to quickly ensure they can stay well armed.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147241#Comment_120147241

They have been training in the US, and with the US in Ukraine, since 1993, It's likely to be more than you think.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-air-force-pilots-fight-russia/

Swertfager, who has traveled to Ukraine more than 70 times in the last 20 years, has a personal relationship with the Ukrainian air force and told Fox News that he has spoken with his fellow pilots daily since the war began in February.

"I'm the Operations Group Commander for the California F-15 unit. One of my duties is to challenge and evaluate ability to fly combat aircraft. My professional assessment, and I've been sharing this with lawmakers this (last) week, is these guys are more than capable of flying our aircraft. 100 percent," he said. ...

"I've flown with these guys, multiple, multiple times. And they're professional pilots," he said. "They come from a Soviet doctrine, which is much different than ours, but they have adapted as a hybrid in their capabilities."

Swertfager said the Ukrainian air force has not fully integrated Western or NATO capabilities into their fighting force, nor have they solely maintained former Soviet-era practices. 

"They’re somewhere in between. And this is where I think they get a lot of advantage when they're fighting the Russians," he added. "They could, given the opportunity to, excel."

https://www.foxnews.com/world/top-air-national-guard-colonel-ukrainian-pilots-100-capable-of-flying-fourth-generation-warplanes

There is at least one US pilot who liked the Ukrainians so much he married one and brought her back with him.

Actual US pilots who have trained and flown with Ukrainains believe it would only take 3-4 months for them to be ready to use US jets in combat.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147125#Comment_120147125

You could get an Abrams repaired in Australia... They have nearly 60.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147461#Comment_120147461

I'm very much aware of what and where,actually more than likely I've already posted about Ukrainian pilots flying in America going back 9 + years

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120145837#Comment_120145837

Oh, its not the west that needs to educate itself on the perils of a nuclear winter... it's the Russians who need educating. The way Putin and co. are throwing the "N" word around its obvious that they don't know what a nuclear winter means... And as for the MAD nuclear doctrine, that seems to have escaped their notice completely. If Russians knew that Vladamir is putting all of their lives on the line for his own egotistical mad mans dream, how many would agree with it??? Not going to happen though is it? If he is exiting this Life, he does not give a tuppenny damn about the rest of the world, never mind his own people. Slava Ukraini

cnocbui

Ukraine will receive ammunition for HIMARS with a range of 150 km. This will allow Ukrainian troops to confidently control the exit from the occupied Crimea, through which the Russians supply equipment and ammunition to their units in the south.

Looks like Ramstein delivered GLSDB after all, it just was left off the public list.

Now, about that bridge

https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1617587106955812864?s=20&t=iCIw02BsCugD1DNe-DAlXQ

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146263#Comment_120146263

Oh, I'd say that Vlad's fellow traveler's know the game he is playing. If they believed that he was serious, he would not still be around. Falling in with his plans is one thing, but dying for him?? Not so much. And in the nuclear scenario, that's exactly what would happen. Its one thing for the occasional Oligarch to fall out of a window or suffer a heart attack after drinking Vladimir's special tea (plus it keeps the rest of them in line) but M.A.D.?

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147483#Comment_120147483

I don't know about repair, but they have ordered replacement A2s. If they get delivered, then the SAs they currently use could become available. The closest Abrams facility to Europe is actually the factory in Egypt.

I'm actually not sure the state of the M1 reserve fleet right now. It would make some sense that to meet the deliveries of the new orders to Morocco, Australia, Taiwan and especially the sudden rapid order of Poland, that the stores being renovated/rebuilt are those which are in roughly the best condition to begin with. The ones in deeper storage may or may not be in a great condition. The Leopards talking about being donated, though, are those currently in service or recently out of service, so should be in good nick.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146670#Comment_120146670

He gave reasons as to why the Germans may feel hesitant. They weren't reasons as to why the Leopards shouldn't be given.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120146849#Comment_120146849

Nobody will be rushing to buy T# tanks from Russia, that's for sure.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120147483#Comment_120147483

Poland will have 300 + at some point over the next few years

Gatling

Estonia is on a bit of a roll, fresh from saying that they are sending all of their 155 howitzers to ukraine,they now plan to block Russian ship's passing through the gulf of Finland , pending inspection for breaching sanctions, either ships coming from Leningrad get inspected or be banned from sailing through.

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1617596681758834726?s=20&t=cWACoVK7L9O4Vg_pWG8HEw